Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 80 70 NNW 4 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 79 69 NNW 4 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 78 68 NW 4 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 76 66 N 4 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 74 64 N 4 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 64 NNW 4 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 64 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 64 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 65 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 68 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 73 W 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 75 W 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 81 77 W 2 6 3025 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 80 76 W 3 8 2736 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 80 76 W 3 8 2736 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 80 75 W 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 78 71 W 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 78 70 W 2 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 78 68 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 64 WNW 1 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 62 WNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 61 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 61 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 60 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 61 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 60 NW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 59 NW 2 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 57 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 56 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 56 NNE 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 56 NNE 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 56 NNE 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 57 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 60 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 63 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 66 W 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 69 W 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 69 W 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 73 69 W 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 73 68 W 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 64 W 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 62 W 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 59 W 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 56 W 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 53 NW 5 10 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 52 NW 5 10 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 51 NW 5 10 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 51 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 50 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 49 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 48 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 47 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 46 NNW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 46 N 6 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 46 N 6 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 46 N 6 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 48 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 51 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 56 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 61 NW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 63 NW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 66 NW 5 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 65 NW 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 65 NW 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 70 63 NW 6 11 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 61 NW 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 57 NW 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 54 NW 6 12 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 52 NNW 4 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 51 NNW 4 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 50 NNW 4 9 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 50 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 50 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 50 N 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 50 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 49 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 48 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 48 N 3 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 48 N 3 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 50 N 3 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 52 N 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 55 N 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 60 N 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 63 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 66 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 67 NW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 67 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 71 66 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 71 64 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 70 62 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 68 58 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 56 WNW 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 54 NNW 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 53 NNW 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 53 NNW 3 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 53 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 53 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 52 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 52 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 51 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 50 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 50 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 50 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 50 NNW 2 4 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 51 NNW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 53 NNW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 56 NNW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 59 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 61 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 61 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 61 W 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 60 W 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 58 W 3 8 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 55 WNW 2 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 52 WNW 2 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 50 WNW 2 6 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 48 NW 0 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 48 NW 0 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 48 NW 0 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 48 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 48 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 47 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 47 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 46 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 46 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 46 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 46 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 47 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 48 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 50 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 52 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 55 WSW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 57 WSW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 58 WSW 1 3 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 57 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 56 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 55 W 2 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 52 W 1 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 50 W 1 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 48 W 1 5 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 47 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 47 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 48 N 0 2 2585 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]