Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 55 45 SSW 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 45 SSW 4 5 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 45 SW 4 5 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 45 SW 4 5 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 44 WSW 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 44 E 2 2 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 44 E 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 46 E 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 49 E 3 4 2809 3200 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 58 50 ESE 3 4 3033 3200 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 60 54 S 3 3 3649 3434 234 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 61 57 SSW 4 5 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 62 59 SSW 5 6 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 61 59 SSW 5 8 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 62 59 SSW 6 9 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 62 58 SW 6 9 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 62 57 SW 8 9 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 62 55 SW 8 9 3660 3617 417 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 61 52 SW 6 9 3478 3200 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 59 49 SW 5 6 2809 3200 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 48 SW 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 47 SSW 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 46 S 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 46 ENE 2 2 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 46 E 2 2 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 45 E 2 2 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 44 E 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 43 E 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 44 E 3 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 44 E 2 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 44 ENE 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 46 ENE 3 3 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 48 NE 3 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 50 N 3 4 3033 3200 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 60 54 NNW 4 4 3649 3434 234 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 61 57 NNW 5 6 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 62 60 NNW 5 6 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 62 60 NNW 5 6 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 63 61 S 4 6 3802 3692 492 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 63 60 S 4 6 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 63 58 S 4 6 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 64 57 S 4 4 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 64 55 S 4 4 3660 3617 417 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 63 53 S 4 4 3638 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 63 53 E 3 3 3638 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 62 52 E 3 3 3478 3200 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 61 51 E 3 3 3255 3200 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 60 50 ENE 4 4 3033 3200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 50 ENE 4 4 3033 3200 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 60 50 ENE 4 4 3033 3200 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 60 50 NE 5 6 3033 3200 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 59 49 NE 5 6 2809 3200 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 58 48 NE 5 6 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 48 ENE 4 4 2500 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 49 ENE 4 4 2809 3200 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 61 51 ENE 4 4 3255 3200 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 63 54 ENE 3 4 3649 3434 234 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 65 58 ENE 3 4 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 66 60 ENE 3 4 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 67 63 SW 1 2 3855 3762 562 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 68 65 SW 1 2 3901 3831 631 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 69 67 SW 1 2 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 69 67 WSW 4 5 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 70 67 WSW 4 5 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 70 65 WSW 4 5 3901 3831 631 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 70 63 WNW 3 4 3855 3762 562 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 69 60 WNW 3 4 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 69 59 WNW 3 4 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 68 58 WNW 4 6 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 68 58 WNW 4 6 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 67 57 WNW 4 6 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 66 56 WNW 5 6 3670 3638 438 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 66 56 WNW 5 6 3670 3638 438 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 65 55 WNW 5 6 3660 3617 417 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 65 55 WNW 5 6 3660 3617 417 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 64 54 WNW 5 6 3649 3434 234 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 63 53 WNW 5 6 3638 3200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 63 53 NW 5 6 3638 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 64 54 NW 5 6 3649 3434 234 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 66 56 NW 5 6 3670 3638 438 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 68 59 NNW 1 1 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 70 63 NNW 1 1 3855 3762 562 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 72 67 NNW 1 1 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 74 71 NW 2 2 4124 3972 772 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 75 73 NW 2 2 4220 4070 870 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 76 75 NW 2 2 4490 4170 970 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 77 75 WNW 4 4 4490 4170 970 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 77 74 WNW 4 4 4376 4122 922 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 77 72 WNW 4 4 4172 4019 819 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 78 71 NW 2 2 4124 3972 772 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 77 68 NW 2 2 3973 3900 700 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 77 67 NW 2 2 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 76 66 NNW 2 2 3924 3854 654 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 75 65 NNW 2 2 3901 3831 631 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 74 64 NNW 2 2 3878 3801 601 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 73 63 NNW 2 3 3855 3762 562 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 72 62 NNW 2 3 3832 3724 524 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 72 62 NNW 2 3 3832 3724 524 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 71 61 NNW 2 3 3802 3692 492 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 70 60 NNW 2 3 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 69 59 NNW 2 3 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 68 58 NNW 2 3 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 70 60 NNW 2 3 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 72 62 NNW 2 3 3832 3724 524 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 74 65 NNW 2 2 3901 3831 631 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 76 69 NNW 2 2 4021 3923 723 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 77 72 NNW 2 2 4172 4019 819 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 78 75 NW 2 3 4490 4170 970 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 79 77 NW 2 3 4973 4367 1167 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 80 79 NW 2 3 5692 4859 1659 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 80 78 WNW 4 5 5149 4485 1285 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 80 77 WNW 4 5 4973 4367 1167 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 80 75 WNW 4 5 4490 4170 970 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 79 72 WNW 3 4 4172 4019 819 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 78 69 WNW 3 4 4021 3923 723 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 77 67 WNW 3 4 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 76 66 NW 2 3 3924 3854 654 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 74 64 NW 2 3 3878 3801 601 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 73 63 NW 2 3 3855 3762 562 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 72 62 NNW 2 2 3832 3724 524 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 71 61 NNW 2 2 3802 3692 492 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 70 60 NNW 2 2 3764 3681 481 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 69 59 NNW 3 4 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 68 58 NNW 3 4 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 67 57 NNW 3 4 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 67 57 NNW 3 4 3681 3649 449 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 68 58 NNW 3 4 3692 3659 459 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 69 59 NNW 3 4 3725 3670 470 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 71 62 NNW 2 2 3832 3724 524 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 73 66 NNW 2 2 3924 3854 654 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 74 69 NNW 2 2 4021 3923 723 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 75 71 NW 2 2 4124 3972 772 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 77 75 NW 2 2 4490 4170 970 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 78 76 NW 2 2 4866 4218 1018 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 78 76 WNW 4 5 4866 4218 1018 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 79 76 WNW 4 5 4866 4218 1018 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 79 74 WNW 4 5 4376 4122 922 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 78 71 WNW 2 2 4124 3972 772 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 78 69 WNW 2 2 4021 3923 723 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 77 67 WNW 2 2 3947 3877 677 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 76 66 NW 2 2 3924 3854 654 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 74 64 NW 2 2 3878 3801 601 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 73 63 NW 2 2 3855 3762 562 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]