Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 46 N 22 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 45 N 22 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 44 N 22 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 45 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 51 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 52 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 54 N 10 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 56 N 10 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 58 N 10 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 58 N 10 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 58 N 10 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 56 N 10 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 53 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 52 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 48 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 48 N 18 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 48 N 18 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 48 N 18 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 48 N 17 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 48 N 17 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 47 N 17 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 48 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 47 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 47 N 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 47 N 15 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 47 N 15 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 46 N 15 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 48 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 55 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 56 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 58 NE 3 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 67 61 NE 3 4944 3227 27 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 68 62 NE 3 5234 3766 566 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 69 63 NE 5 5563 4571 1371 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 70 63 NE 5 5563 4571 1371 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 70 61 NE 5 4944 3227 27 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 68 58 NE 12 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 56 NE 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 52 NE 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 52 NE 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 53 NE 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 53 NE 16 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 52 NE 14 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 53 NE 14 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 51 NE 14 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 52 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 51 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 51 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 52 NE 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 51 NE 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 51 NE 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 52 NE 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 59 NE 9 3869 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 60 NE 9 4597 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 69 62 NE 6 5234 3766 566 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 70 64 NE 6 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 72 66 NE 6 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 73 67 N 1 6824 5841 2641 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 73 66 N 1 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 74 65 N 1 6175 5208 2008 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 71 61 N 5 4944 3227 27 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 68 58 N 5 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 54 N 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 53 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 54 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 54 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 54 N 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 54 N 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 52 N 8 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 53 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 52 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 52 N 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 52 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 52 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 51 N 12 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 52 NE 9 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 58 NE 9 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 60 NE 9 4597 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 68 61 N 6 4944 3227 27 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 70 64 N 6 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 70 64 N 6 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 72 66 NW 9 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 72 65 NW 9 6175 5208 2008 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 72 63 NW 9 5563 4571 1371 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 70 60 NW 7 4597 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 68 58 NW 7 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 53 NW 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 53 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 53 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 54 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 53 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 53 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 52 N 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 52 NE 6 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 52 NE 6 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 51 NE 6 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 59 NE 7 3869 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 59 NE 7 3869 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 62 SE 5 5234 3766 566 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 70 64 SE 5 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 72 66 SE 5 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 73 67 S 5 6824 5841 2641 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 73 66 S 5 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 73 64 S 5 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 71 61 W 3 4944 3227 27 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 69 59 W 3 3869 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 55 W 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 54 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 55 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 55 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 55 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 55 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 54 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 54 NE 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 54 NE 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 53 NE 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 54 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 53 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 53 NE 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 54 E 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 59 E 3 3869 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 60 E 3 4597 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 70 63 E 2 5563 4571 1371 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 71 65 E 2 6175 5208 2008 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 72 66 E 2 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 73 67 W 3 6824 5841 2641 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 73 66 W 3 6477 5533 2333 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 73 64 W 3 5871 4925 1725 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 70 60 NW 3 4597 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 68 58 NW 3 3231 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 53 NW 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 52 N 2 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 53 N 2 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 53 N 2 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 53 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 53 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 51 N 3 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 52 N 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 51 N 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 51 N 5 2690 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]