Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 46 NNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 45 NW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 42 NW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 42 NW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 42 NNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 42 N 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 42 N 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 42 N 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 45 NNW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 49 NW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 52 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 53 WNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 56 WNW 6 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 56 WNW 6 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 56 WNW 8 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 55 W 8 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 53 W 9 16 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 51 WNW 10 16 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 50 WNW 10 16 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 48 W 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 46 WNW 10 16 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 44 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 43 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 42 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 42 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 41 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 39 NW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 39 NW 12 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 38 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 38 WNW 11 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 38 W 12 18 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 38 WNW 13 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 41 NW 13 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 44 NW 13 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 46 WNW 13 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 48 WNW 12 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 50 WNW 12 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 50 WNW 12 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 49 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 47 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 46 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 44 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 43 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 42 WNW 11 19 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 42 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 42 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 41 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 40 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 40 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 40 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 40 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 40 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 39 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 39 NW 9 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 40 NW 9 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 40 NW 9 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 41 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 42 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 43 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 46 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 48 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 50 WNW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 51 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 51 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 49 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 47 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 45 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 43 WNW 10 17 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 42 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 42 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 40 NW 9 14 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 40 NNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 39 NNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 39 NNW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 38 NNW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 38 NNW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 37 NNW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 37 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 38 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 39 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 42 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 45 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 48 NNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 52 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 54 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 56 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 55 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 55 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 53 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 51 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 48 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 46 WNW 6 12 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 45 NW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 45 NW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 44 NW 6 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 43 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 43 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 42 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 42 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 41 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 41 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 41 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 42 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 44 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 46 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 49 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 52 NNW 3 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 55 WNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 57 WNW 5 8 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 58 WNW 5 8 2808 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 58 WNW 5 10 2808 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 56 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 55 WNW 5 10 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 53 WNW 5 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 51 WNW 5 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 49 WNW 5 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 48 NW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 47 NW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 46 NW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 45 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 45 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 44 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 44 NNW 3 5 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 43 NNW 3 5 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 42 NNW 3 5 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 42 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 43 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 44 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 47 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 49 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 53 NNW 4 6 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 56 WNW 5 9 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 58 WNW 5 9 2808 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 59 WNW 5 9 2952 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 58 WNW 6 11 2808 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 58 WNW 6 11 2808 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 57 WNW 6 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 55 NW 6 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 53 NW 6 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 51 NW 6 13 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 50 NW 6 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 49 NW 6 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 48 NW 6 11 2789 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]