Detailed Predictions for: Big Sur
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.0, -121.47, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 60
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 57 47 N 2 5 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 47 N 2 4 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 46 NNW 2 4 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 44 NNW 2 4 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 44 NNW 2 3 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 44 NNW 2 3 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 43 WNW 1 2 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 42 WNW 2 3 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 42 W 3 4 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 44 WSW 4 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 44 WSW 5 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 44 WSW 6 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 44 WSW 6 10 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 44 WSW 8 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 43 WSW 8 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 43 SW 5 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 43 SW 4 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 42 WSW 4 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 42 WSW 5 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 42 SW 2 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 41 SW 2 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 41 S 2 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 40 E 1 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 40 NE 2 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 40 NNE 4 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 39 N 8 10 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 39 N 8 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 38 NNW 5 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 38 WNW 2 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 38 WSW 1 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 38 WNW 2 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 38 NW 5 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 39 NW 6 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 40 WNW 10 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 41 WNW 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 42 WNW 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 42 WNW 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 43 WNW 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 42 WNW 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 42 WNW 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 42 NW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 41 NW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 40 NW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 39 NNW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 39 NNW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 39 NNW 5 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 38 N 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 38 N 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 37 N 12 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 36 N 14 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 36 N 14 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 35 N 14 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 35 N 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 34 N 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 34 N 13 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 34 NNE 14 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 36 NNE 14 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 37 NNE 14 18 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 39 N 4 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 42 N 4 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 43 N 4 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 44 WNW 4 10 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 43 WNW 4 10 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 42 WNW 4 10 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 42 NNE 8 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 40 NNE 8 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 39 NNE 8 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 38 NNE 12 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 37 NNE 12 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 37 NNE 12 17 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 37 NE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 36 NE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 36 NE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 36 NE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 36 NE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 35 NE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 36 NNE 4 5 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 36 NNE 4 5 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 36 NNE 4 5 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 36 NNE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 38 NNE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 40 NNE 5 6 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 43 NNE 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 44 NNE 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 46 NNE 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 46 NNW 5 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 46 NNW 5 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 45 NNW 5 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 45 NNW 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 44 NNW 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 43 NNW 6 8 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 42 N 6 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 42 N 6 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 42 N 6 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 41 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 41 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 41 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 41 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 42 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 44 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 47 N 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 48 N 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 49 N 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 49 NNW 11 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 49 NNW 11 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 48 NNW 11 14 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 47 NNW 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 46 NNW 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 45 NNW 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 44 N 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 44 N 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 43 N 12 16 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 43 N 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 42 N 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 42 N 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 42 NNE 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 41 NNE 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 41 NNE 10 13 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 40 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 41 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 42 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 43 NNE 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 45 N 8 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 47 N 8 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 48 N 8 9 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 47 NW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 47 NW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 46 NW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 46 NNW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 45 NNW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 44 NNW 9 11 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 43 N 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 42 N 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 42 N 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 42 NNE 10 12 2654 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]