Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 64 SSE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 62 SSE 0 0 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 61 E 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 60 NE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 59 NE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 58 NE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 60 NE 2 6 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 66 NNE 0 0 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 69 SSW 1 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 75 SSW 2 2 5754 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 81 SW 3 4 11939 8247 2059 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 83 86 SW 5 6 15030 14203 8015 White 10
12 Noon Wed 86 90 SW 8 10 15867 15548 9360 White 14
1 PM Wed 87 91 SW 12 14 16074 16074 9886 White 15
2 PM Wed 87 91 SW 13 15 16074 16074 9886 White 15
3 PM Wed 86 90 WSW 13 15 15867 15548 9360 White 14
4 PM Wed 85 87 WSW 14 17 15240 14525 8337 White 11
5 PM Wed 84 84 WSW 13 18 14609 11881 5693 White 8
6 PM Wed 82 80 SW 12 19 11266 7049 861 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 80 77 SW 9 17 7065 6188 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 77 74 SSW 6 13 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 71 SSW 4 9 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 67 S 3 7 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 65 S 3 6 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 62 SSE 2 4 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 60 SSE 1 3 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 59 SE 1 3 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 58 ESE 1 3 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 56 ESE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 55 ESE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 56 ENE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 59 E 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 65 S 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 70 SSW 3 5 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 77 SSW 6 8 7065 6188 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 79 82 SSW 10 12 13617 10141 3953 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 82 86 SW 13 15 15030 14203 8015 White 10
1 PM Thu 84 89 SW 14 16 15659 14854 8666 White 13
2 PM Thu 85 90 SW 14 16 15867 15548 9360 White 14
3 PM Thu 86 90 SW 13 15 15867 15548 9360 White 14
4 PM Thu 85 87 SW 13 15 15240 14525 8337 White 11
5 PM Thu 83 83 SW 13 15 14288 11000 4812 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 82 80 SW 12 16 11266 7049 861 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 77 74 SW 9 12 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 69 SSW 5 10 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 65 S 3 8 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 61 S 3 6 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 58 SSE 2 4 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 56 SE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 54 ESE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 52 ESE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 50 ESE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 49 E 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 48 NE 0 1 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 50 NE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 57 NE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 62 S 0 0 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 68 SSW 2 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 75 SSW 3 4 5754 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 81 SSW 6 7 11939 8247 2059 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 82 87 SSW 9 10 15240 14525 8337 White 11
1 PM Fri 84 89 SW 12 14 15659 14854 8666 White 13
2 PM Fri 84 89 SW 12 14 15659 14854 8666 White 13
3 PM Fri 83 87 SW 12 14 15240 14525 8337 White 11
4 PM Fri 82 84 SW 12 13 14609 11881 5693 White 8
5 PM Fri 80 80 SW 11 16 11266 7049 861 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 77 75 SW 11 17 5754 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 69 SW 8 15 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 63 SW 4 9 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 59 WSW 2 5 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 56 W 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 54 NNE 1 2 5102 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]