Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 59 56 SW 4 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 55 SW 4 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 53 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 52 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 51 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 50 SW 2 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 51 SW 2 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 49 SW 2 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 51 SSW 4 10 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 55 SSW 4 10 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 4 10 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 66 SW 9 19 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 71 SW 9 19 8330 7722 1534 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 70 73 SW 9 19 9245 7932 1744 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 74 SW 9 19 11632 8304 2116 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 71 73 SW 9 19 9245 7932 1744 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 72 72 SW 9 19 8743 7781 1593 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 70 68 SW 8 18 7724 6188 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 68 65 SW 8 18 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 63 SW 8 18 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 57 SW 4 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 55 SW 4 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 52 SW 4 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 51 SSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 51 SSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 49 SSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 48 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 47 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 47 SSW 3 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 46 S 3 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 47 S 3 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 45 S 3 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 47 SSW 8 17 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 51 SSW 8 17 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 8 17 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 63 SSW 13 31 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 66 SSW 13 31 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 67 SSW 13 31 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 65 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 66 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 62 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 59 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 57 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 55 SW 14 33 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 52 SW 17 32 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 49 SW 17 32 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 45 SW 17 32 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 43 SW 14 26 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 40 SW 14 26 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 38 SW 14 26 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 36 WSW 6 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 35 WSW 6 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 35 WSW 6 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 34 W 4 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 33 W 4 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 33 W 4 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 34 NW 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 39 NW 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 46 NW 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 51 SW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 SW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 60 SW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 62 WSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 61 WSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 57 WSW 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 54 WSW 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 51 WSW 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 48 N 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 45 N 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 43 N 4 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 41 NNE 12 19 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 39 NNE 12 19 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 38 NNE 12 19 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 38 NE 13 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 37 NE 13 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 37 NE 13 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 37 NE 11 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 37 NE 11 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 37 NE 11 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 39 NE 10 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 43 NE 10 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 NE 10 14 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 56 E 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 E 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 65 E 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 67 E 2 4 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 68 E 2 4 7724 6188 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 66 66 E 2 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 62 N 0 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 57 N 0 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 54 N 0 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 51 N 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 49 N 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 47 N 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 45 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 43 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 42 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 41 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 41 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 41 NNE 2 5 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 41 NNE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 40 NNE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 40 NNE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 42 NE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 48 NE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 55 NE 1 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 62 S 2 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 S 2 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 S 2 4 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 68 SW 3 8 7724 6188 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 66 67 SW 3 8 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 66 SW 3 8 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 62 SW 6 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 58 SW 6 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 55 SW 6 12 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 52 WSW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 50 WSW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 48 WSW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 47 NNW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 45 NNW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 44 NNW 0 4 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 43 NNE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 43 NE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 42 NE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 42 NE 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 43 E 1 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 48 E 1 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 54 E 1 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 61 S 2 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 65 S 2 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 66 S 2 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 67 SSW 3 6 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 67 SSW 3 6 6053 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 65 SSW 3 6 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 62 SW 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 59 SW 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 56 SW 4 9 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 53 WSW 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 51 WSW 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 49 WSW 0 3 6018 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]