Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 37 34 ENE 3 5 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 33 E 4 8 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 33 E 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 33 E 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 33 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 33 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 32 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 32 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 32 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 36 SE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 40 SSW 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 43 SSW 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 45 SSW 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 46 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 46 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 45 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 44 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 42 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 39 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 38 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 37 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 36 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 36 SSW 13 21 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 35 SSW 13 21 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 35 SSW 13 21 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 35 S 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 34 S 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 33 S 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 33 S 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 32 S 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 32 S 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 31 SSW 18 29 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 30 SSW 18 29 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 33 SSW 18 29 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 35 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 35 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 34 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 33 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 33 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 35 32 SSW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 32 SSW 24 39 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 32 SSW 24 39 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 31 SSW 24 39 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 34 31 SSW 28 46 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 31 SSW 28 46 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 31 SSW 28 46 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 31 SW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 31 SW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 30 SW 25 40 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 30 SW 20 33 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 29 SW 20 33 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 29 SW 20 33 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 28 SW 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 28 SW 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 27 SW 17 27 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 27 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 26 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 26 SSW 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 26 SSW 12 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 27 SSW 12 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 31 28 SSW 12 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 32 29 SW 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 32 29 SW 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 31 28 SW 14 24 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 30 27 WSW 14 23 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 29 26 WSW 14 23 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 26 WSW 14 23 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 25 WSW 13 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 25 WSW 13 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 24 WSW 13 20 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 24 W 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 23 W 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 23 W 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 22 WNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 22 WNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 21 WNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 21 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 20 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 20 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 20 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 21 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 22 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 25 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 26 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 29 27 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 30 28 ENE 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 28 ENE 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 27 ENE 10 16 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 29 26 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 25 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 24 ENE 9 14 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 23 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 25 22 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 25 22 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 25 22 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 22 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 22 ENE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 22 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 22 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 21 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 21 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 21 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 21 ENE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 22 ESE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 23 ESE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 25 ESE 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 26 S 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 31 28 S 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 32 29 S 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 33 30 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 33 30 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 33 30 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 33 30 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 30 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 29 SW 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 29 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 29 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 30 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 30 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 30 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 29 SSW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 29 SW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 29 SW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 28 SW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 28 W 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 28 W 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 28 W 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 28 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 29 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 30 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 31 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 33 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 34 N 5 9 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 38 35 NNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 35 NNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 38 35 NNW 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 34 NNE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 33 NNE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 31 NNE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 30 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 29 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 28 NE 6 11 5164 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 28 NE 8 12 5164 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]