Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 33 30 WSW 8 11 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 31 WSW 8 11 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 31 WSW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 31 WSW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 31 WSW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 31 SW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 31 SW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 31 SW 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 32 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 32 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 33 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 34 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 36 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 37 SW 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 39 WSW 3 5 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 39 WSW 3 5 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 40 WSW 3 5 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 39 WNW 4 6 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 40 WNW 4 6 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 38 WNW 4 6 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 37 N 2 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 35 N 2 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 34 N 2 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 33 N 3 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 33 N 3 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 31 N 3 4 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 31 NNE 3 5 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 30 NNE 3 5 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 30 NNE 3 5 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 30 NNE 4 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 29 NNE 4 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 30 NNE 4 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 30 NE 4 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 34 NE 4 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 40 NE 4 8 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 43 ENE 4 6 7044 6445 257 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 47 47 ENE 4 6 8146 7311 1123 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 51 52 ENE 4 6 9530 8681 2493 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 53 54 NNE 3 5 10073 9229 3041 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 3 5 10327 9500 3312 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 55 54 NNE 3 5 10073 9229 3041 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 55 53 NE 4 6 9802 8956 2768 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 53 50 NE 4 6 8981 8127 1939 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 51 48 NE 4 6 8426 7584 1396 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 48 45 NE 5 8 7597 6761 573 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 46 43 NE 5 8 7044 6445 257 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 44 41 NE 5 8 6589 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 40 NNE 5 9 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 39 NNE 5 9 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 38 NNE 5 9 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 37 NNE 5 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 36 NNE 5 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 35 NNE 5 8 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 34 NE 5 10 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 33 NE 5 10 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 34 NE 5 10 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 35 NE 5 9 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 40 NE 5 9 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 45 NE 5 9 7597 6761 573 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 51 51 ENE 5 9 9257 8405 2217 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 55 56 ENE 5 9 10576 9770 3582 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 58 60 ENE 5 9 11939 10786 4598 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 60 62 E 4 6 12623 11393 5205 White 20
3 PM Mon 62 63 E 4 6 12834 11894 5706 White 21
4 PM Mon 62 61 E 4 6 12391 11032 4844 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 61 59 ENE 3 5 11621 10540 4352 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 59 56 ENE 3 5 10576 9770 3582 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 55 52 ENE 3 5 9530 8681 2493 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 52 49 NE 4 8 8704 7856 1668 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 50 47 NE 4 8 8146 7311 1123 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 48 45 NE 4 8 7597 6761 573 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 46 43 NE 4 8 7044 6445 257 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 45 42 NE 4 8 6767 6302 114 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 41 NE 4 8 6589 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 40 NE 4 8 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 39 NE 4 8 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 38 NE 4 8 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 37 NE 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 37 NE 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 37 NE 4 6 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 39 NE 4 6 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 44 NE 4 6 7321 6587 399 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 51 50 NE 4 6 8981 8127 1939 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 56 56 E 4 6 10576 9770 3582 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 59 60 E 4 6 11939 10786 4598 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 62 64 E 4 6 13044 12283 6095 White 22
2 PM Tue 63 64 SSW 5 9 13044 12283 6095 White 22
3 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 5 9 13044 12283 6095 White 22
4 PM Tue 64 63 SSW 5 9 12834 11894 5706 White 21
5 PM Tue 63 61 SW 9 13 12391 11032 4844 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 60 57 SW 9 13 10825 10038 3850 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 56 53 SW 9 13 9802 8956 2768 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 53 50 SW 4 8 8981 8127 1939 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 51 48 SW 4 8 8426 7584 1396 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 49 46 SW 4 8 7871 7036 848 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 48 45 SSE 3 4 7597 6761 573 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 46 43 SSE 3 4 7044 6445 257 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 45 42 SSE 3 4 6767 6302 114 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 41 SE 3 4 6589 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 40 SE 3 4 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 39 SE 3 4 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 39 S 3 4 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 38 S 3 4 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 39 S 3 4 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 40 S 5 8 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 44 S 5 8 7321 6587 399 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 51 49 S 5 8 8704 7856 1668 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 55 54 SSW 12 20 10073 9229 3041 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 57 57 SSW 12 20 10825 10038 3850 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 12 20 11072 10293 4105 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 14 25 11072 10293 4105 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 57 56 SSW 14 25 10576 9770 3582 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 56 54 SSW 14 25 10073 9229 3041 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 54 51 SSW 20 32 9257 8405 2217 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 51 48 SSW 20 32 8426 7584 1396 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 48 45 SSW 20 32 7597 6761 573 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 46 43 SSW 18 28 7044 6445 257 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 45 42 SSW 18 28 6767 6302 114 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 41 SSW 18 28 6589 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 40 SSW 13 21 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 39 SSW 13 21 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 39 SSW 13 21 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 38 SSW 13 21 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 37 SSW 13 21 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 36 SSW 13 21 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 35 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 34 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 33 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 33 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 34 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 35 SW 12 19 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 37 SW 14 23 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 38 SW 14 23 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 39 SW 14 23 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 40 SW 14 24 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 40 SW 14 24 6446 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 39 SW 14 24 6303 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 38 WSW 17 27 6160 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 36 WSW 17 27 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 34 WSW 17 27 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 32 WSW 11 18 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 31 WSW 11 18 6132 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 31 WSW 11 18 6132 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]