Detailed Predictions for: Burn Launch
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.194595, -120.923022, 6188
LZ Altitude (f): 3540
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 65 62 W 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 62 W 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 60 WSW 5 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 58 WSW 5 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 58 WSW 5 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 57 WNW 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 59 WNW 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 59 WNW 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 64 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 71 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 77 SSW 5 9 7872 6188 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 77 81 SSW 6 11 15209 9945 3757 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 81 86 SSW 6 11 15954 15462 9274 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 83 88 SSW 6 11 16252 15759 9571 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 83 88 SW 9 14 16252 15759 9571 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 83 87 WSW 12 20 16103 15610 9422 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 83 85 WSW 12 20 15806 15314 9126 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 12 20 15358 14780 8592 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 81 79 WSW 11 18 14879 7335 1147 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 78 75 WSW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 71 WSW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 67 W 8 12 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 63 WSW 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 61 SW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 59 SSW 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 57 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 57 NW 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 56 NW 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 55 NW 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 55 W 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 56 W 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 57 W 3 5 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 62 S 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 68 S 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 74 S 2 3 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 74 77 SSW 5 9 7872 6188 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 76 80 SSW 5 9 15060 7845 1657 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 77 82 SSW 5 9 15358 14780 8592 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 78 82 SW 12 20 15358 14780 8592 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 78 81 SW 12 20 15209 9945 3757 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 77 78 SW 12 20 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 76 76 SW 13 21 7354 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 75 73 SW 13 21 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 70 SW 13 21 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 67 WSW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 64 WSW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 60 WSW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 58 W 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 57 W 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 57 W 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 56 NNE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 55 NNE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 53 NNE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 52 ESE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 53 ESE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 54 ESE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 58 SSW 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 63 SSW 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 67 SSW 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 73 SSW 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 76 SSW 6 11 7354 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 78 SSW 6 11 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 74 79 SW 10 16 14879 7335 1147 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 74 78 SW 10 16 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 73 75 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 72 72 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 69 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 66 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 64 SW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 60 SW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 56 SW 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 53 W 8 12 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 51 W 8 12 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 51 W 8 12 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 50 NNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 49 NNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 48 NNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 48 NE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 49 NE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 51 NE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 55 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 SSW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 68 SSW 8 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 71 SSW 8 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 73 SSW 8 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 73 SW 12 19 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 72 SW 12 19 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 71 SW 12 19 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 23 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 66 SW 13 23 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 63 SW 13 23 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 61 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 58 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 54 SW 10 16 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 51 WNW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 49 WNW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 48 WNW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 48 N 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 47 N 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 47 N 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 47 NNE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 48 NNE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 50 NNE 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 54 NNE 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 NNE 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 71 E 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 75 E 4 6 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 75 78 E 4 6 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 76 79 SE 6 11 14879 7335 1147 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 76 78 SE 6 11 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 75 76 SE 6 11 7354 6188 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 74 73 SSW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 73 71 SSW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 68 SSW 6 10 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 66 WNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 63 WNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 60 WNW 5 9 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 58 NNW 9 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 56 NNW 9 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 55 NNW 9 13 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 54 N 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 53 N 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 52 N 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 52 NNE 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 53 NNE 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 56 NNE 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 60 NE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 66 NE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 NE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 79 ENE 9 13 14879 7335 1147 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 78 83 ENE 9 13 15507 15017 8829 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 80 86 ENE 9 13 15954 15462 9274 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 81 86 E 8 12 15954 15462 9274 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 82 86 E 8 12 15954 15462 9274 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 81 83 E 8 12 15507 15017 8829 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 81 81 E 9 14 15209 9945 3757 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 80 78 E 9 14 10019 6188 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 78 75 E 9 14 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 76 73 ENE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 70 ENE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 66 ENE 6 11 6076 6188 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]