Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.67264, -122.49, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 NW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 NW 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 NW 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 NW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 NW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 NW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 NW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 NW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 34 NW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 36 NW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 38 NW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 41 NW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 43 WNW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 44 WNW 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 43 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 41 WNW 17 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 40 WNW 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 37 WNW 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 36 WNW 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 WNW 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 33 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 32 WNW 18 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 32 WNW 18 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 32 WNW 18 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 32 WNW 18 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 WNW 18 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 33 WNW 18 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 WNW 18 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 WNW 18 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 35 WNW 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 36 W 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 37 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 38 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 38 W 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 36 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 36 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 35 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 35 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 34 W 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 34 W 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 W 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 33 W 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 W 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 W 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 W 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 WNW 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 WNW 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 WNW 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 35 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 35 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 36 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 37 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 38 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 37 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 36 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 35 W 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 34 W 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 W 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 32 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 32 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 WNW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 31 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 33 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 34 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 36 WNW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 38 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 41 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 41 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 41 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 40 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 38 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 37 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 34 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 34 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 36 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 40 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 42 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 41 W 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 40 W 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 39 W 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 36 W 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 35 W 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 34 W 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 34 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 34 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 35 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 36 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 38 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 39 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 40 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 40 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 39 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 38 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 37 WNW 13 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 36 WNW 13 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 13 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]