Detailed Predictions for: Dumps
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 36 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 34 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 34 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 41 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 42 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 44 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 43 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 43 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 40 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 36 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 35 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 42 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 44 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 45 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 46 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 46 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 45 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 43 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 41 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 40 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 37 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 40 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 44 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 46 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 47 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 48 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 49 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 48 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 45 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 43 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 38 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 NW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 40 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 43 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 46 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 47 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 48 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 49 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 48 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 44 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 42 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 47 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 50 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 52 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 54 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 53 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 71 53 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 49 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 47 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 66 46 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 42 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 41 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 40 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 40 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 39 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 38 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 37 E 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 37 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 37 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 37 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 42 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 46 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 49 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 50 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 52 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 69 52 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 52 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 47 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 44 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 37 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 37 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]