Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 48 43 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 42 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 42 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 42 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 41 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 42 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 45 S 1 4 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 48 SW 2 5 2297 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 50 WSW 4 9 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 52 WSW 5 11 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 56 53 W 5 11 3583 4460 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 56 53 W 5 12 3583 4460 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 57 52 W 5 11 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 57 52 W 5 11 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 57 52 WNW 4 10 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 56 51 NW 3 8 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 54 49 NNW 2 5 2433 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 48 NNW 2 4 2297 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 46 N 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 46 ENE 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 ESE 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 43 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 42 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 1 3 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 44 E 2 4 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 48 E 2 4 2297 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 52 E 2 4 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 57 55 WSW 3 8 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 59 58 WSW 3 8 6080 4692 232 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 3 8 6489 6063 1603 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 63 62 W 5 11 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 64 62 W 5 11 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 65 62 W 5 11 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 65 61 W 4 9 6489 6063 1603 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 63 58 W 4 9 6080 4692 232 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 60 55 W 4 9 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 58 53 NNE 2 4 3583 4460 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 57 52 NNE 2 4 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 56 51 NNE 2 4 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 56 51 ENE 2 5 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 56 51 ENE 2 5 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 56 51 ENE 2 5 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 56 51 ENE 2 6 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 56 51 ENE 2 6 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 55 50 ENE 2 6 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 50 ENE 2 5 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 50 ENE 2 5 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 51 ENE 2 5 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 57 52 ENE 2 6 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 60 56 ENE 2 6 5347 4460 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 64 62 ENE 2 6 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 67 66 SW 2 6 7607 6784 2324 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 70 70 SW 2 6 8654 7820 3360 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 72 73 SW 2 6 9436 8600 4140 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 73 73 W 5 10 9436 8600 4140 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 74 73 W 5 10 9436 8600 4140 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 74 72 W 5 10 9177 8338 3878 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 73 69 W 3 8 8391 7562 3102 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 71 66 W 3 8 7607 6784 2324 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 68 63 W 3 8 6822 6335 1875 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 65 60 NE 2 5 6352 5712 1252 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 63 58 NE 2 5 6080 4692 232 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 62 57 NE 2 5 5758 4460 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 61 56 ENE 2 6 5347 4460 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 60 55 ENE 2 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 60 55 ENE 2 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 60 55 ENE 3 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 60 55 ENE 3 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 59 54 ENE 3 6 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 59 54 ENE 3 6 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 59 54 ENE 3 6 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 59 54 ENE 3 6 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 60 55 ENE 3 8 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 63 59 ENE 3 8 6216 5307 847 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 67 64 ENE 3 8 7084 6470 2010 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 71 70 SW 2 6 8654 7820 3360 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 73 73 SW 2 6 9436 8600 4140 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 74 74 SW 2 6 9694 8860 4400 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 75 74 WSW 5 10 9694 8860 4400 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 76 74 WSW 5 10 9694 8860 4400 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 76 73 WSW 5 10 9436 8600 4140 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 75 71 W 3 8 8917 8076 3616 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 72 67 W 3 8 7867 7044 2584 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 68 63 W 3 8 6822 6335 1875 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 65 60 ENE 2 5 6352 5712 1252 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 5 6080 4692 232 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 5 5758 4460 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 5 5758 4460 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 ENE 2 5 5758 4460 0 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 61 56 ENE 2 5 5347 4460 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 61 56 ENE 2 5 5347 4460 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 60 55 ENE 2 5 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 59 54 ENE 2 5 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 59 54 ENE 2 5 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 59 54 ENE 2 5 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 59 54 ENE 2 5 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 60 55 E 2 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 62 58 E 2 6 6080 4692 232 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 65 62 E 2 6 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 67 66 SW 4 10 7607 6784 2324 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 69 69 SW 4 10 8391 7562 3102 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 70 70 SW 4 10 8654 7820 3360 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 70 69 WSW 6 14 8391 7562 3102 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 70 68 WSW 6 14 8126 7304 2844 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 70 67 WSW 6 14 7867 7044 2584 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 69 64 W 5 12 7084 6470 2010 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 67 62 W 5 12 6625 6199 1739 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 64 59 W 5 12 6216 5307 847 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 61 56 NW 3 6 5347 4460 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 60 55 NW 3 6 4815 4460 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 59 54 NW 3 6 3862 4460 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 58 53 E 2 4 3583 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 57 52 E 2 4 3303 4460 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 51 E 2 4 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 55 50 E 2 4 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 49 E 2 4 2433 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 E 2 4 2433 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 48 W 2 5 2297 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 47 W 2 5 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 46 W 2 5 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 46 WSW 3 6 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 46 WSW 3 6 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 47 WSW 3 6 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 49 WSW 6 12 2433 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 50 WSW 6 12 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 51 WSW 6 12 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 54 51 W 8 16 3021 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 54 50 W 8 16 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 50 W 8 16 2738 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 49 W 8 14 2433 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 48 W 8 14 2297 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 46 W 8 14 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 44 NW 3 8 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 43 NW 3 8 2196 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 42 NW 3 8 2196 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]