Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 56 ENE 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 56 E 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 56 ESE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 56 E 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 56 ESE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 56 ESE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 56 ESE 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 57 SE 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 62 S 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 67 SSW 2 5 2658 4460 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 73 73 SW 3 8 4822 4460 0 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 77 79 SW 5 10 7641 6835 2375 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 80 83 WSW 5 11 9489 7774 3314 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 82 86 WSW 5 11 11025 9427 4967 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 83 86 W 5 12 11025 9427 4967 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 83 85 W 5 12 10178 8965 4505 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 84 84 W 5 12 9756 8386 3926 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 81 79 W 5 11 7641 6835 2375 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 80 76 W 5 10 6872 4793 333 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 78 73 WNW 4 10 4822 4460 0 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 73 68 NW 3 9 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 69 64 N 3 8 2336 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 61 NNE 2 6 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 60 NNE 2 5 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 60 ENE 2 5 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 60 E 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 58 E 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 58 E 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 57 E 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 E 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 58 SSE 2 3 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 62 SW 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 67 SW 2 5 2658 4460 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 73 73 WSW 3 6 4822 4460 0 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 79 81 WSW 5 10 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 83 86 WSW 5 10 11025 9427 4967 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 85 89 WSW 5 10 13727 10698 6238 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 86 89 W 6 12 13727 10698 6238 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 86 88 W 6 12 13029 9986 5526 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 85 85 W 6 12 10178 8965 4505 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 83 81 W 5 12 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 81 77 W 5 12 7386 5649 1189 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 79 74 W 5 12 5714 4460 0 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 76 71 WNW 3 8 3976 4460 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 73 68 WNW 3 8 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 71 66 WNW 3 8 2576 4460 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 69 64 NE 3 6 2336 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 63 NE 3 6 2175 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 63 NE 3 6 2175 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 63 ENE 2 5 2175 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 62 ENE 2 5 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 61 ENE 2 5 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 61 ENE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 62 ENE 2 4 2057 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 64 ENE 2 4 2336 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 68 S 2 4 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 76 74 S 2 4 5714 4460 0 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 81 81 S 2 4 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 85 87 WSW 4 9 12094 9692 5232 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 88 91 WSW 4 9 14660 12716 8256 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 91 95 WSW 4 9 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 92 95 W 5 11 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 93 95 W 5 11 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 92 92 W 5 11 15275 13519 9059 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 91 89 W 5 12 13727 10698 6238 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 89 85 W 5 12 10178 8965 4505 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 85 80 W 5 12 7861 7311 2851 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 82 77 NW 3 8 7386 5649 1189 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 79 74 NW 3 8 5714 4460 0 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 77 72 NW 3 8 4404 4460 0 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 75 70 ENE 3 6 3542 4460 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 74 69 ENE 3 6 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 74 69 ENE 3 6 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 74 69 ENE 3 6 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 73 68 ENE 3 6 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 72 67 ENE 3 6 2658 4460 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 72 67 ENE 2 5 2658 4460 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 73 68 ENE 2 5 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 76 71 ENE 2 5 3976 4460 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 79 75 ESE 2 6 6488 4460 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 83 81 ESE 2 6 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 88 88 ESE 2 6 13029 9986 5526 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 92 94 SW 4 10 16373 14548 10088 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 95 98 SW 4 10 18219 16638 12178 Blue 33
1 PM Sat 98 102 SW 4 10 19642 18380 13920 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 99 102 WSW 5 13 19642 18380 13920 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 100 102 WSW 5 13 19642 18380 13920 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 99 99 WSW 5 13 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
5 PM Sat 98 96 W 4 12 17121 15581 11121 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 96 92 W 4 12 15275 13519 9059 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 92 87 W 4 12 12094 9692 5232 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 89 84 W 4 12 9756 8386 3926 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 86 81 W 4 12 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 83 78 W 4 12 7513 6351 1891 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 80 75 E 3 6 6488 4460 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 78 73 E 3 6 4822 4460 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 77 72 E 3 6 4404 4460 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 76 71 E 3 6 3976 4460 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 75 70 E 3 6 3542 4460 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 74 69 E 3 6 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 74 69 E 2 6 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 75 70 E 2 6 3542 4460 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 77 72 E 2 6 4404 4460 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 80 76 E 2 6 6872 4793 333 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 84 82 E 2 6 9090 7619 3159 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 89 89 E 2 6 13727 10698 6238 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 93 95 WSW 6 13 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 96 99 WSW 6 13 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 98 102 WSW 6 13 19642 18380 13920 Blue 37
2 PM Sun 99 102 WSW 6 13 19642 18380 13920 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 99 101 WSW 6 13 19216 17966 13506 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 99 99 WSW 6 13 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 97 95 WSW 5 13 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 95 91 WSW 5 13 14660 12716 8256 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 91 86 WSW 5 13 11025 9427 4967 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 88 83 WSW 5 13 9489 7774 3314 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 85 80 WSW 5 13 7861 7311 2851 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 82 77 WSW 5 13 7386 5649 1189 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 79 74 E 2 5 5714 4460 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 77 72 E 2 5 4404 4460 0 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 76 71 E 2 5 3976 4460 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 75 70 E 2 5 3542 4460 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 74 69 E 2 5 3105 4460 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 73 68 E 2 5 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 73 68 ESE 2 5 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 73 68 ESE 2 5 2741 4460 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 75 70 ESE 2 5 3542 4460 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 77 73 ESE 2 5 4822 4460 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 81 79 ESE 2 5 7641 6835 2375 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 85 85 ESE 2 5 10178 8965 4505 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 89 91 WSW 5 12 14660 12716 8256 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 92 95 WSW 5 12 16816 14870 10410 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 95 99 WSW 5 12 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
2 PM Mon 96 99 WSW 5 12 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
3 PM Mon 97 99 WSW 5 12 18525 16927 12467 Blue 34
4 PM Mon 96 96 WSW 5 12 17121 15581 11121 Blue 31
5 PM Mon 95 93 W 5 13 15832 14055 9595 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 93 89 W 5 13 13727 10698 6238 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 89 84 W 5 13 9756 8386 3926 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 86 81 W 5 13 8503 7492 3032 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 83 78 W 5 13 7513 6351 1891 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 80 75 W 5 13 6488 4460 0 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]