Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 67 NE 6 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 64 ENE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 61 E 4 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 61 ENE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 61 NE 9 12 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 62 NE 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 61 NE 6 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 62 NE 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 64 NE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 65 WSW 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 68 SW 5 8 4147 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 71 WSW 8 10 4736 4460 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 73 74 W 9 12 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 12 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 75 74 WSW 6 9 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 76 74 W 8 10 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 75 71 W 6 9 4736 4460 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 72 67 NNW 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 67 62 ENE 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 63 ENE 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 64 E 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 65 ENE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 65 E 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 64 ESE 2 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 64 E 2 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 63 ESE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 63 SE 6 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 62 SE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 63 ESE 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 62 ESE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 62 ESE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 62 ESE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 64 SE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 66 SSW 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 69 SW 6 9 4507 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 72 SW 10 13 4848 4504 44 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 10 13 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 10 13 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 75 74 WSW 10 13 5047 4734 274 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 75 72 WSW 10 13 4848 4504 44 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 74 70 W 9 12 4624 4460 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 71 66 W 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 63 WNW 6 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 61 W 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 61 N 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 62 E 6 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 63 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 62 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 59 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 58 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 58 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 59 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 64 WSW 5 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 67 WSW 5 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 5 9 4507 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 10 4624 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 71 70 W 6 10 4624 4460 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 71 68 W 6 10 4147 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 70 66 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 63 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 61 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 59 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 60 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 61 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 62 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 62 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 62 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 61 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 61 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 60 ENE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 60 ENE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 60 ENE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 60 ENE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 60 E 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 62 E 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 65 E 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 67 SW 5 9 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 70 SW 5 9 4624 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 72 73 SW 5 9 4960 4623 163 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 8 11 4960 4623 163 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 74 73 WSW 8 11 4960 4623 163 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 74 71 WSW 8 11 4736 4460 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 73 69 W 8 10 4507 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 71 66 W 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 63 W 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 61 NNE 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 61 NNE 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 61 NNE 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 62 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 62 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 ENE 4 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 61 E 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 62 E 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 63 E 4 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 64 SW 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 66 SW 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 68 SW 5 8 4147 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 69 WSW 6 11 4507 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 71 69 WSW 6 11 4507 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 68 WSW 6 11 4147 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 66 WSW 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 63 WSW 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 60 WSW 8 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 58 NE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 58 NE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 60 NE 5 5 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 61 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 61 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 61 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 60 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 3 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 59 ESE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 59 ESE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 60 ESE 3 4 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 61 SW 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 62 SW 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 64 SW 5 8 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 65 WSW 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 65 WSW 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 64 WSW 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 64 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 61 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 59 W 6 10 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 57 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 57 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 58 NE 5 6 3963 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]