Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 45 E 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 45 NE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 44 NE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 NE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 42 NE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 NE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 N 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 51 WSW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 55 WSW 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 57 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 58 WSW 5 10 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 58 W 5 11 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 58 W 5 11 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 56 W 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 54 WNW 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 52 N 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 48 NNE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 45 NNE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 45 E 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 45 E 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 E 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 44 ESE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 43 E 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 43 ESE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 ESE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 ESE 2 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 41 ESE 3 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 E 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 E 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 40 E 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 SE 3 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 50 SSE 3 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 53 S 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 55 S 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 57 S 3 8 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 57 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 57 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 56 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 54 WNW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 51 WNW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 48 WNW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 45 ENE 4 10 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 4 10 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 4 10 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 5 11 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 5 11 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 43 ENE 5 11 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 ENE 4 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 4 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 4 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 41 ENE 2 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 40 ENE 2 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 ENE 2 6 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 41 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 50 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 55 WSW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 58 WSW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 59 WSW 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 59 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 58 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 56 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 54 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 51 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 48 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 46 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 45 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 45 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 42 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 43 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 52 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 57 SW 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 60 SW 2 4 2262 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 61 SW 2 4 2673 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 62 WSW 4 9 3305 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 64 61 WSW 4 9 2673 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 60 WSW 4 9 2262 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 58 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 55 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 52 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 44 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 44 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 48 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 53 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 57 WSW 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 60 WSW 2 4 2262 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 61 WSW 2 4 2673 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 61 WSW 4 9 2673 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 60 WSW 4 9 2262 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 58 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 57 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 54 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 51 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 48 NE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 47 NE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 NE 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 46 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 45 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 45 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 44 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 1 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 45 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 50 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 55 SW 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 57 SW 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 59 SW 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 59 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 58 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 58 WSW 4 9 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 56 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 54 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 50 W 2 5 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 48 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 47 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 ENE 2 4 2230 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 47 ENE 2 3 2230 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]