Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 78 73 E 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 78 73 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 78 73 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 78 73 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 76 71 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 70 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 75 70 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 68 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 70 SSE 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 75 S 1 4 2183 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 80 SSW 3 8 3245 4460 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 84 84 SSW 4 10 4167 4460 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 85 86 SW 5 12 4608 4460 0 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 87 88 WSW 6 13 6445 4460 0 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 89 90 WSW 6 14 7809 4873 413 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 89 88 W 6 16 6445 4460 0 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 89 87 W 6 16 4895 4460 0 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 90 86 W 6 14 4608 4460 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 89 84 WNW 5 14 4167 4460 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 86 81 NW 4 12 3522 4460 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 83 78 N 5 12 2672 4460 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 76 71 NNE 8 13 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 69 NE 6 11 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 68 ENE 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 ENE 4 8 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 68 ENE 4 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 68 E 3 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 67 E 3 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 66 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 65 E 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 65 E 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 63 E 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 65 SSW 3 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 70 SSW 3 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 77 SSW 3 9 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 81 80 WSW 5 14 3245 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 82 83 WSW 5 14 3952 4460 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 83 84 WSW 5 14 4167 4460 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 85 86 WSW 6 16 4608 4460 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 6 16 4608 4460 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 86 84 WSW 6 16 4167 4460 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 87 83 W 5 14 3952 4460 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 85 80 W 5 14 3245 4460 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 82 77 W 5 14 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 73 N 6 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 70 N 6 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 67 N 6 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 62 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 62 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 61 N 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 N 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 N 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 58 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 57 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 56 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 56 S 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 59 S 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 64 S 0 2 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 68 WSW 4 8 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 72 WSW 4 8 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 74 WSW 4 8 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 75 76 W 5 12 2320 4460 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 12 2320 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 77 75 W 5 12 2183 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 76 72 W 5 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 74 69 W 5 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 65 W 5 12 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 62 N 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 60 N 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 59 N 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 59 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 59 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 58 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 58 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 57 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 57 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 56 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 55 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 55 N 0 1 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 55 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 59 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 65 ESE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 70 WSW 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 74 75 WSW 4 9 2183 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 75 76 WSW 4 9 2320 4460 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 77 78 WSW 5 12 2672 4460 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 78 77 WSW 5 12 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 79 77 WSW 5 12 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 78 74 W 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 75 70 W 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 67 W 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 64 ENE 8 11 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 62 ENE 8 11 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 61 ENE 8 11 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 60 ENE 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 59 ENE 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 5 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 58 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 57 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 57 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 E 4 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 63 E 4 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 69 E 4 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 75 74 WSW 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 77 WSW 4 9 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 78 78 WSW 4 9 2672 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 79 79 WSW 5 12 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 80 79 WSW 5 12 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 81 79 WSW 5 12 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 81 77 W 4 10 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 78 73 W 4 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 75 70 W 4 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 66 ENE 10 13 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 63 ENE 10 13 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 61 ENE 10 13 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 60 E 3 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 59 E 3 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 59 E 3 6 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 59 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 59 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 58 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 58 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 59 E 1 3 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 64 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 70 E 2 4 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 74 SW 4 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 77 SW 4 10 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 78 78 SW 4 10 2672 4460 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 5 11 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 80 79 WSW 5 11 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 81 79 WSW 5 11 2959 4460 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 81 77 W 4 9 2458 4460 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 79 74 W 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 75 70 W 4 9 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 67 NE 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 65 NE 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 63 NE 5 10 2064 4460 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]