Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 251106/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 53 48 E 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 47 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 3 4 650 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 47 ENE 3 4 650 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 52 ENE 3 4 2642 4460 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 59 56 W 4 4 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 56 W 4 4 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 61 58 W 4 4 3979 4460 0 White 6
1 PM Thu 62 59 W 6 8 4200 4460 0 White 7
2 PM Thu 62 58 W 6 8 3979 4460 0 White 6
3 PM Thu 63 58 W 6 8 3979 4460 0 White 6
4 PM Thu 62 57 NW 4 10 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 59 54 NNW 3 8 3090 4460 0 White 2
6 PM Thu 58 53 N 2 5 2866 4460 0 White 1
7 PM Thu 54 49 N 2 4 811 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 48 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 48 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 47 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 NNE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 NNE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 45 NE 1 2 650 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 45 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 48 NNE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 52 WNW 2 4 2642 4460 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 56 W 3 6 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 59 W 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
12 Noon Fri 62 60 W 3 6 4421 4460 0 White 8
1 PM Fri 63 60 W 5 10 4421 4460 0 White 8
2 PM Fri 63 60 W 5 10 4421 4460 0 White 8
3 PM Fri 63 59 W 5 10 4200 4460 0 White 7
4 PM Fri 63 58 W 3 8 3979 4460 0 White 6
5 PM Fri 61 56 W 3 8 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 58 53 W 3 8 2866 4460 0 White 1
7 PM Fri 56 51 ENE 2 5 2417 4460 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 55 50 ENE 2 5 1547 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 2 5 811 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 2 4 811 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 2 4 811 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 49 ENE 2 4 811 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 49 ENE 2 3 811 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 49 ENE 2 3 811 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 49 ENE 2 3 811 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 49 ENE 2 3 811 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 48 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 48 ENE 2 3 650 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 49 E 2 5 811 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 52 E 2 5 2642 4460 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 61 57 E 2 5 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 65 62 SW 2 5 4860 4479 19 White 10
11 AM Sat 67 65 SW 2 5 5512 5512 1052 White 13
12 Noon Sat 69 67 SW 2 5 5945 5945 1485 White 15
1 PM Sat 70 67 W 3 8 5945 5945 1485 White 15
2 PM Sat 71 67 W 3 8 5945 5945 1485 White 15
3 PM Sat 71 67 W 3 8 5945 5945 1485 White 15
4 PM Sat 70 65 W 2 4 5512 5512 1052 White 13
5 PM Sat 68 63 W 2 4 5078 5078 618 White 11
6 PM Sat 65 60 W 2 4 4421 4460 0 White 8
7 PM Sat 63 58 ENE 4 8 3979 4460 0 White 6
8 PM Sat 62 57 ENE 4 8 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 61 56 ENE 4 8 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 61 56 ENE 3 6 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 61 56 ENE 3 6 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 62 57 ENE 3 6 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 62 57 ENE 2 5 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 62 57 ENE 2 5 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 62 57 ENE 2 5 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 61 56 ENE 2 5 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 60 55 ENE 2 5 3198 4460 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 60 55 ENE 2 5 3198 4460 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 60 55 ENE 3 6 3198 4460 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 63 58 ENE 3 6 3979 4460 0 White 6
9 AM Sun 67 63 ENE 3 6 5078 5078 618 White 11
10 AM Sun 71 68 WSW 2 4 6159 6159 1699 White 16
11 AM Sun 73 70 WSW 2 4 6587 6587 2127 White 18
12 Noon Sun 74 72 WSW 2 4 7014 7014 2554 White 20
1 PM Sun 75 72 W 3 8 7014 7014 2554 White 20
2 PM Sun 75 71 W 3 8 6800 6800 2340 White 19
3 PM Sun 75 70 W 3 8 6587 6587 2127 White 18
4 PM Sun 74 69 W 1 4 6373 6373 1913 White 17
5 PM Sun 72 67 W 1 4 5945 5945 1485 White 15
6 PM Sun 69 64 W 1 4 5295 5295 835 White 12
7 PM Sun 66 61 ENE 4 9 4641 4460 0 White 9
8 PM Sun 65 60 ENE 4 9 4421 4460 0 White 8
9 PM Sun 64 59 ENE 4 9 4200 4460 0 White 7
10 PM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
11 PM Sun 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
12 Midnight Mon 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
1 AM Mon 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
2 AM Mon 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
3 AM Mon 63 58 ENE 3 6 3979 4460 0 White 6
4 AM Mon 62 57 ENE 3 6 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 61 56 ENE 3 6 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 60 55 ENE 3 6 3198 4460 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 60 55 ENE 3 6 3198 4460 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 64 59 ENE 3 6 4200 4460 0 White 7
9 AM Mon 68 63 ENE 3 6 5078 5078 618 White 11
10 AM Mon 73 69 SW 2 4 6373 6373 1913 White 17
11 AM Mon 75 71 SW 2 4 6800 6800 2340 White 19
12 Noon Mon 76 72 SW 2 4 7014 7014 2554 White 20
1 PM Mon 76 72 W 3 8 7014 7014 2554 White 20
2 PM Mon 75 70 W 3 8 6587 6587 2127 White 18
3 PM Mon 74 69 W 3 8 6373 6373 1913 White 17
4 PM Mon 72 67 W 1 4 5945 5945 1485 White 15
5 PM Mon 70 65 W 1 4 5512 5512 1052 White 13
6 PM Mon 67 62 W 1 4 4860 4479 19 White 10
7 PM Mon 65 60 ENE 4 8 4421 4460 0 White 8
8 PM Mon 64 59 ENE 4 8 4200 4460 0 White 7
9 PM Mon 63 58 ENE 4 8 3979 4460 0 White 6
10 PM Mon 63 58 ENE 2 4 3979 4460 0 White 6
11 PM Mon 63 58 ENE 2 4 3979 4460 0 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 63 58 ENE 2 4 3979 4460 0 White 6
1 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 4 3979 4460 0 White 6
2 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 4 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 4 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 61 56 E 2 5 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 63 58 E 2 5 3979 4460 0 White 6
9 AM Tue 66 61 E 2 5 4641 4460 0 White 9
10 AM Tue 69 65 SW 2 5 5512 5512 1052 White 13
11 AM Tue 71 67 SW 2 5 5945 5945 1485 White 15
12 Noon Tue 72 68 SW 2 5 6159 6159 1699 White 16
1 PM Tue 72 68 WSW 3 9 6159 6159 1699 White 16
2 PM Tue 72 68 WSW 3 9 6159 6159 1699 White 16
3 PM Tue 71 66 WSW 3 9 5728 5728 1268 White 14
4 PM Tue 69 64 WSW 2 5 5295 5295 835 White 12
5 PM Tue 67 62 WSW 2 5 4860 4479 19 White 10
6 PM Tue 65 60 WSW 2 5 4421 4460 0 White 8
7 PM Tue 63 58 E 3 5 3979 4460 0 White 6
8 PM Tue 62 57 E 3 5 3704 4460 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 61 56 E 3 5 3427 4460 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 60 55 E 2 3 3198 4460 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]