Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 59 N 2 4 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 58 N 3 4 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 58 NE 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 58 ESE 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 57 SE 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 57 WSW 2 3 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 58 ESE 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 59 ESE 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 60 SSW 2 3 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 60 SW 5 9 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 61 SW 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 SW 8 12 4236 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 69 SSW 9 14 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 68 71 SSW 9 14 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 71 74 SW 10 17 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 72 74 SW 10 17 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 17 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 71 69 SW 10 17 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 70 66 SW 9 14 4420 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 63 W 6 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 60 SW 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 59 W 8 13 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 59 N 9 16 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 58 NE 10 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 57 ENE 11 19 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 56 ESE 11 19 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 55 SE 10 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 ESE 9 16 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 54 ENE 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 NNE 4 8 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 54 N 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 56 WNW 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 56 WSW 3 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 57 WSW 4 8 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 60 SW 9 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 64 SW 10 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 68 SW 10 17 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 68 69 SW 10 18 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 10 18 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 70 69 S 11 18 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 69 67 S 11 11 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 67 63 SE 10 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 61 NE 10 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 59 N 9 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 59 NNE 10 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 60 NE 11 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 60 ENE 11 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 60 NE 10 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 59 NE 8 17 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 58 NNE 5 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 57 NNE 5 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 57 NNE 5 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 57 N 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 57 N 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 58 NW 6 11 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 59 WNW 6 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 60 W 6 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 10 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 64 SSW 5 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 67 SW 4 5 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 67 71 SW 3 5 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 69 72 SW 2 2 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 70 71 WSW 1 2 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 1 2 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 71 69 WSW 2 9 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 70 66 W 4 9 4420 4460 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 63 W 8 9 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 62 NNW 6 9 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 62 NNW 6 9 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 63 NNW 6 9 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 64 NNE 5 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 64 NNE 5 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 63 NNE 5 5 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 63 NE 3 4 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 63 NE 3 4 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 62 NE 3 4 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 62 ENE 5 6 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 62 ENE 5 6 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 63 ENE 5 6 4229 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 65 SW 3 4 4236 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 67 SW 3 4 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 69 69 SW 3 4 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 72 WSW 6 9 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 72 75 WSW 6 9 7848 6188 1728 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 75 79 WSW 6 9 12906 10703 6243 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 78 81 W 8 12 13408 12620 8160 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 80 82 W 8 12 13809 12857 8397 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 12 13079 12292 7832 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 80 78 W 8 12 12706 7784 3324 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 78 74 W 8 12 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 75 70 W 8 12 5230 4512 52 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 73 68 WNW 5 9 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 73 68 WNW 5 9 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 73 68 WNW 5 9 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 74 69 NE 5 5 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 74 69 NE 5 5 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 73 68 NE 5 5 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 73 68 ENE 4 5 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 72 67 ENE 4 5 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 72 67 ENE 4 5 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 72 67 ENE 5 6 4513 4460 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 73 68 ENE 5 6 4896 4460 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 74 69 ENE 5 6 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 75 71 S 3 4 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 75 73 S 3 4 6517 5222 762 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 75 75 S 3 4 7848 6188 1728 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 75 77 WSW 6 9 12394 7209 2749 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 77 80 WSW 6 9 13079 12292 7832 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 80 84 WSW 6 9 14928 13302 8842 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 82 85 W 8 11 16843 13649 9189 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 84 86 W 8 11 17299 13957 9497 White 20
4 PM Sun 84 84 W 8 11 14928 13302 8842 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 84 82 W 8 10 13809 12857 8397 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 82 78 W 8 10 12706 7784 3324 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 79 74 W 8 10 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 77 72 NW 5 6 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 77 72 NW 5 6 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 78 73 NW 5 6 6517 5222 762 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 78 73 NE 5 6 6517 5222 762 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 77 72 NE 5 6 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 76 71 NE 5 6 5840 4894 434 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 75 70 ENE 4 5 5230 4512 52 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 74 69 ENE 4 5 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 74 69 ENE 4 5 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 74 69 ENE 5 6 5005 4460 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 75 70 ENE 5 6 5230 4512 52 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 75 70 ENE 5 6 5230 4512 52 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 76 72 SSW 2 4 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 76 74 SSW 2 4 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 76 76 SSW 2 4 11183 6496 2036 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 76 78 WSW 6 9 12706 7784 3324 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 78 81 WSW 6 9 13408 12620 8160 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 81 84 WSW 6 9 14928 13302 8842 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 83 85 W 8 10 16843 13649 9189 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 84 85 W 8 10 16843 13649 9189 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 84 83 W 8 10 14028 13029 8569 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 83 80 W 8 11 13079 12292 7832 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 81 77 W 8 11 12394 7209 2749 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 79 74 W 8 11 7266 5819 1359 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 77 72 NNW 5 9 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 77 72 NNW 5 9 6207 5003 543 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 78 73 NNW 5 9 6517 5222 762 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]