Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.760, -119.098, 4460
LZ Altitude (f): 1950
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 52 47 NW 2 3 4016 4460 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 51 46 NW 1 4 3797 4460 0 White 1
2 AM Wed 51 46 N 1 3 3797 4460 0 White 1
3 AM Wed 50 45 ENE 0 2 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 ESE 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 43 SSE 2 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 43 S 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 43 SSW 2 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 46 SW 2 3 3797 4460 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 51 47 SW 3 5 4016 4460 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 54 51 SW 5 8 4895 4895 435 White 6
11 AM Wed 55 52 WSW 5 9 5112 5112 652 White 7
12 Noon Wed 57 54 WSW 5 10 5268 5217 757 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 58 56 WSW 6 10 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 60 58 WSW 6 10 5364 5296 836 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 61 58 WSW 6 10 5364 5296 836 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 60 57 WSW 6 10 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 60 56 W 6 10 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 60 55 W 5 9 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 53 W 4 6 5239 5207 747 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 55 50 NW 3 5 4676 4460 0 White 5
9 PM Wed 53 48 N 3 5 4235 4460 0 White 3
10 PM Wed 53 48 N 3 4 4235 4460 0 White 3
11 PM Wed 53 48 N 2 4 4235 4460 0 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 NNE 2 3 3797 4460 0 White 1
1 AM Thu 51 46 S 2 3 3797 4460 0 White 1
2 AM Thu 50 45 SSE 2 3 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 SW 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 S 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 WNW 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 42 S 0 2 482 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 43 SSW 0 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 SW 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 46 SW 3 5 3797 4460 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 53 50 WSW 5 8 4676 4460 0 White 5
11 AM Thu 54 51 WSW 8 12 4895 4895 435 White 6
12 Noon Thu 56 54 WSW 8 12 5268 5217 757 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 57 55 WSW 8 12 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 58 56 W 8 11 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 59 56 W 8 11 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 59 55 W 8 11 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 59 54 WNW 8 12 5268 5217 757 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 58 53 WNW 8 12 5239 5207 747 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 57 52 WNW 8 12 5112 5112 652 White 7
8 PM Thu 55 50 NW 4 6 4676 4460 0 White 5
9 PM Thu 54 49 NW 4 6 4456 4460 0 White 4
10 PM Thu 53 48 NW 4 6 4235 4460 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 52 47 NNW 3 5 4016 4460 0 White 2
12 Midnight Fri 51 46 NNW 3 5 3797 4460 0 White 1
1 AM Fri 49 44 NNW 3 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 WNW 2 4 482 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 42 WNW 2 4 482 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 42 WNW 2 4 482 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 42 WNW 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 42 WNW 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 42 WNW 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 43 W 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 44 W 2 3 482 4460 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 46 W 2 3 3797 4460 0 White 1
11 AM Fri 51 47 W 8 11 4016 4460 0 White 2
12 Noon Fri 52 49 W 8 11 4456 4460 0 White 4
1 PM Fri 52 49 W 8 11 4456 4460 0 White 4
2 PM Fri 53 50 W 9 12 4676 4460 0 White 5
3 PM Fri 54 50 W 9 12 4676 4460 0 White 5
4 PM Fri 54 50 W 9 12 4676 4460 0 White 5
5 PM Fri 54 49 WNW 10 14 4456 4460 0 White 4
6 PM Fri 53 48 WNW 10 14 4235 4460 0 White 3
7 PM Fri 51 46 WNW 10 14 3797 4460 0 White 1
8 PM Fri 50 45 NW 6 10 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 44 NW 6 10 482 4460 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 44 NW 6 10 482 4460 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 43 NNW 5 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 NNW 5 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 NNW 5 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 40 NE 4 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 39 NE 4 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 38 NE 4 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 38 NE 3 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 39 NE 3 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 40 NE 3 5 482 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 43 SW 4 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 47 SW 4 6 4016 4460 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 53 52 SW 4 6 5112 5112 652 White 7
11 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 8 12 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 56 56 WSW 8 12 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 57 58 WSW 8 12 5364 5296 836 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 58 57 W 10 14 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 59 57 W 10 14 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 60 57 W 10 14 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 60 56 WNW 8 13 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 59 54 WNW 8 13 5268 5217 757 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 57 52 WNW 8 13 5112 5112 652 White 7
8 PM Sat 55 50 WNW 8 13 4676 4460 0 White 5
9 PM Sat 53 48 WNW 8 13 4235 4460 0 White 3
10 PM Sat 52 47 WNW 8 13 4016 4460 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 51 46 ENE 5 9 3797 4460 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 ENE 5 9 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 45 ENE 5 9 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 ENE 5 9 482 4460 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 ENE 5 9 482 4460 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 5 9 482 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 42 SSE 5 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 43 SSE 5 6 482 4460 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 45 SSE 5 6 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 48 SSE 5 6 4235 4460 0 White 3
9 AM Sun 55 52 SSE 5 6 5112 5112 652 White 7
10 AM Sun 57 56 SSE 5 6 5329 5238 778 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 60 61 WSW 9 14 5455 5362 902 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 62 64 WSW 9 14 5587 5452 992 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 64 67 WSW 9 14 6069 5579 1119 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 65 66 WSW 9 14 5893 5520 1060 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 9 14 5893 5520 1060 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 66 64 WSW 9 14 5587 5452 992 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 66 62 WNW 8 13 5488 5391 931 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 64 59 WNW 8 13 5395 5326 866 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 62 57 WNW 8 13 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 60 55 WNW 8 13 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 58 53 WNW 8 13 5239 5207 747 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 56 51 WNW 8 13 4895 4895 435 White 6
11 PM Sun 55 50 ENE 5 8 4676 4460 0 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 54 49 ENE 5 8 4456 4460 0 White 4
1 AM Mon 53 48 ENE 5 8 4235 4460 0 White 3
2 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 5 8 4016 4460 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 51 46 ENE 5 8 3797 4460 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 50 45 ENE 5 8 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 45 ESE 5 8 2453 4460 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 46 ESE 5 8 3797 4460 0 White 1
7 AM Mon 52 47 ESE 5 8 4016 4460 0 White 2
8 AM Mon 54 50 ESE 5 8 4676 4460 0 White 5
9 AM Mon 57 54 ESE 5 8 5268 5217 757 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 61 60 ESE 5 8 5425 5346 886 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 64 65 W 8 13 5658 5485 1025 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 66 68 W 8 13 6245 5650 1190 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 67 70 W 8 13 6743 6048 1588 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 68 70 W 8 13 6743 6048 1588 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 13 6462 5873 1413 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 69 67 W 8 13 6069 5579 1119 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 69 66 WNW 8 13 5893 5520 1060 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 67 62 WNW 8 13 5488 5391 931 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 65 60 WNW 8 13 5425 5346 886 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 62 57 WNW 8 13 5348 5265 805 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 60 55 WNW 8 13 5299 5228 768 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 58 53 WNW 8 13 5239 5207 747 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]