Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NNW 1 2 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 1 3 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 1 2 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 NNE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 2 3 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 57 N 2 2 2480 2282 132 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 58 58 N 2 3 2664 2282 132 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 4 3081 2661 511 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 4 4 3081 2661 511 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 5 5 3568 2812 662 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 63 63 NNW 4 4 3830 2945 795 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 5 3568 2812 662 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 2 6 3081 2661 511 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 57 57 NNE 2 5 2480 2282 132 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 1 3 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 ENE 1 3 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NNE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 56 N 3 3 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 58 N 3 4 2664 2282 132 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 59 60 N 4 5 2947 2479 329 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 59 60 N 4 5 2947 2479 329 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 60 60 N 5 6 2947 2479 329 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 60 60 N 5 6 2947 2479 329 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 57 57 N 4 8 2480 2282 132 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 55 55 NNE 4 8 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 4 8 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NE 3 7 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 3 8 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NE 3 7 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NE 3 7 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 ENE 3 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 3 7 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 ENE 2 6 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 1 2 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 54 NE 1 1 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 60 N 1 1 2947 2479 329 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 61 62 NNW 1 2 3568 2812 662 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 62 63 NNW 2 2 3830 2945 795 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 62 62 NNW 2 3 3568 2812 662 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 62 62 N 2 3 3568 2812 662 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 59 59 N 2 5 2814 2282 132 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 E 2 4 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 2 5 2282 2282 132 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]