Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 4 8 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 72 72 W 4 6 1861 2150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 71 71 W 4 6 1852 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 W 4 6 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 W 4 6 1818 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 4 6 1810 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 WSW 4 6 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SW 3 5 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 SW 4 6 1810 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 SW 4 8 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 SW 4 9 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 72 76 SW 5 10 1987 2150 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 74 80 WSW 5 12 2429 2150 0 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 76 82 W 6 13 2893 2290 140 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 77 83 W 8 14 3177 2426 276 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 78 83 W 8 14 3177 2426 276 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 76 79 W 8 16 2292 2150 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 76 78 W 8 14 2155 2150 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 12 1881 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 5 10 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 9 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 5 9 1818 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 5 9 1810 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 9 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 5 9 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 5 9 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 5 9 1784 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 W 5 9 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 9 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 6 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 6 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 6 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 W 9 14 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 W 9 14 1768 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 W 9 14 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 67 W 11 18 1818 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 70 W 11 18 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 72 W 11 18 1861 2150 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 67 73 W 13 21 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 13 21 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 66 69 W 13 21 1835 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 14 24 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 14 24 1784 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 14 24 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 25 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 25 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 25 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 26 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 12 26 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 12 26 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 9 19 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 9 19 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 9 19 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 12 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 12 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 W 6 12 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 W 5 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 W 5 11 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 64 WNW 9 16 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 69 WNW 9 16 1835 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 71 WNW 9 16 1852 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 73 WNW 9 17 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 68 73 WNW 9 17 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 68 71 WNW 9 17 1852 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 69 WNW 11 19 1835 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 11 19 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 11 19 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 2 4 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 WSW 2 4 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 WSW 2 4 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 2 3 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 2 4 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 SSW 2 4 1768 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 SSW 2 4 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 70 WNW 3 6 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 75 WNW 3 6 1930 2150 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 72 78 WNW 3 6 2155 2150 0 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 73 79 WNW 8 14 2292 2150 0 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 74 79 WNW 8 14 2292 2150 0 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 73 76 WNW 8 14 1987 2150 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 72 74 W 9 14 1881 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 14 1826 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 14 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 4 6 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 4 6 1768 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 W 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SSW 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 SSW 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 SSW 4 8 1793 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 69 WSW 3 11 1835 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 73 WSW 3 11 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 70 75 WSW 3 11 1930 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 72 77 W 5 13 2045 2150 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 71 75 W 5 13 1930 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 70 73 W 5 13 1871 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 8 13 1835 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 13 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 13 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 4 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 5 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 8 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 SW 3 5 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 SW 3 5 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SW 3 5 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 67 W 3 9 1818 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 70 W 3 9 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 74 W 3 9 1881 2150 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 69 75 W 5 12 1930 2150 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 70 75 W 5 12 1930 2150 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 69 72 W 5 12 1861 2150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 68 70 WNW 6 12 1843 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 6 12 1801 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 6 12 1784 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 4 6 1764 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]