Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 4 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 4 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 NE 4 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 E 4 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 SSE 4 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 W 5 9 2251 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 60 62 W 5 9 2714 2150 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 61 62 SSW 6 10 2714 2150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 63 64 W 5 9 2915 2497 347 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 5 9 2504 2150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 5 8 2251 2150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 6 2069 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 57 57 SSE 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 S 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 SSE 5 5 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 5 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 S 6 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SSE 6 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 S 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 S 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 8 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 9 11 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 10 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 S 12 17 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 53 S 12 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 53 S 12 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 53 S 12 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 53 S 13 19 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 52 S 13 19 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 S 13 19 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 SW 11 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 SW 11 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 11 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 8 11 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 W 8 11 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 W 8 11 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 WNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 WNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 8 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 48 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 50 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 51 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 51 WNW 13 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 50 WNW 13 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 WNW 13 18 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 13 20 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 13 20 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 13 20 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 WNW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 N 10 14 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 N 10 14 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 N 10 14 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 50 NNW 12 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 49 NNW 12 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 47 NNW 12 16 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 NNW 11 17 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 NNW 11 17 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 NNW 11 17 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 N 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 NNE 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 NNE 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 51 NNE 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 53 NW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 NW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 NW 9 12 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 NW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 NW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 5 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NE 5 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 6 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 ENE 4 8 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 50 NNW 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 54 NNW 6 10 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 55 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 9 13 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 6 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 6 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 6 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 5 9 1762 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]