Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SSW 4 8 2176 2150 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 4 6 2237 2150 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 4 6 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 4 6 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 60 60 S 4 6 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 4 6 2237 2150 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 4 6 2206 2150 0 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 3 5 2206 2150 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 5 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 62 63 SW 4 6 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 65 68 SW 4 8 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 68 73 SW 5 8 2734 2589 439 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 70 77 SW 5 8 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 74 81 WSW 5 8 3421 3137 987 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 76 83 WSW 5 9 3650 3323 1173 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 78 84 W 6 9 3808 3416 1266 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 78 82 W 6 9 3514 3230 1080 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 78 80 W 5 9 3327 3043 893 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 76 77 W 4 6 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 3 4 2768 2654 504 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 2 4 2590 2394 244 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 3 4 2396 2335 185 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 2 4 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 3 5 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SSW 3 4 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 64 64 SSW 3 5 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 63 63 SSW 4 5 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 63 63 SSW 4 6 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 63 63 S 4 5 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 62 62 S 4 5 2297 2236 86 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 61 61 S 4 6 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 62 62 S 4 6 2297 2236 86 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 65 65 S 4 6 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 68 70 S 5 8 2590 2394 244 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 70 74 SSW 5 9 2768 2654 504 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 72 78 SW 5 9 3141 2857 707 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 75 82 SW 5 9 3514 3230 1080 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 78 86 SW 5 9 4189 3641 1491 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 80 88 W 6 10 4712 3955 1805 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 81 88 W 6 10 4712 3955 1805 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 81 86 W 6 10 4189 3641 1491 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 80 83 W 5 9 3650 3323 1173 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 5 9 3234 2950 800 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 5 9 2768 2654 504 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 3 5 2655 2459 309 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 3 5 2525 2373 223 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 5 2396 2335 185 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 3 5 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 WSW 3 5 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 3 5 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 63 63 SW 4 6 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 62 62 SW 4 6 2297 2236 86 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 4 6 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 4 5 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 60 60 SW 4 5 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 60 60 SW 4 5 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 8 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 63 65 SSW 5 8 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 65 68 SSW 5 8 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 67 73 WSW 5 9 2734 2589 439 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 70 77 WSW 5 9 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 72 80 WSW 5 9 3327 3043 893 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 74 82 W 8 12 3514 3230 1080 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 74 81 W 8 12 3421 3137 987 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 74 79 W 8 12 3234 2950 800 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 74 77 W 8 12 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 71 72 W 8 12 2700 2524 374 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 12 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 4 6 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 4 6 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 4 6 2297 2236 86 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 3 5 2297 2236 86 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 3 5 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 5 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 4 6 2278 2206 56 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 4 6 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 4 6 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 5 8 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 5 8 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 5 8 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 4 6 2259 2176 26 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 4 6 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 65 68 WSW 4 6 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 68 74 W 4 6 2768 2654 504 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 70 77 W 4 6 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 73 81 W 4 6 3421 3137 987 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 75 83 WNW 6 10 3650 3323 1173 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 77 84 WNW 6 10 3808 3416 1266 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 77 82 WNW 6 10 3514 3230 1080 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 77 80 WNW 6 10 3327 3043 893 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 76 77 WNW 6 10 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 6 10 2734 2589 439 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 5 8 2655 2459 309 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 8 2525 2373 223 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 5 8 2396 2335 185 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 4 6 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 WSW 4 6 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 65 65 WSW 4 6 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 4 6 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 64 64 SW 4 6 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 63 63 SW 4 6 2316 2258 108 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 4 6 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 64 64 SW 4 6 2335 2277 127 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 65 65 SW 4 6 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 3 5 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 68 70 WSW 3 5 2590 2394 244 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 71 75 WSW 3 5 2860 2699 549 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 74 80 WNW 5 8 3327 3043 893 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 77 84 WNW 5 8 3808 3416 1266 Blue 31
1 PM Fri 79 87 WNW 5 8 4451 3798 1648 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 81 89 WNW 6 10 4971 4169 2019 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 82 89 WNW 6 10 4971 4169 2019 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 82 87 WNW 6 10 4451 3798 1648 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 80 83 W 8 11 3650 3323 1173 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 78 79 W 8 11 3234 2950 800 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 11 2860 2699 549 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 9 2700 2524 374 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 9 2590 2394 244 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 5 9 2525 2373 223 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 5 8 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SW 5 8 2396 2335 185 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 67 67 SW 5 8 2396 2335 185 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 5 8 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 5 8 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 5 8 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 5 9 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 5 9 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 5 9 2354 2297 147 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 5 9 2374 2316 166 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 67 69 SSW 5 9 2525 2373 223 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 70 73 SSW 5 9 2734 2589 439 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 72 78 SW 5 9 3141 2857 707 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 74 81 SW 5 9 3421 3137 987 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 76 84 SW 5 9 3808 3416 1266 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 78 86 W 6 10 4189 3641 1491 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 79 86 W 6 10 4189 3641 1491 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 79 84 W 6 10 3808 3416 1266 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 78 81 W 8 11 3421 3137 987 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 76 77 W 8 11 3047 2767 617 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 11 2734 2589 439 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 5 9 2590 2394 244 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 5 9 2461 2354 204 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 5 9 2396 2335 185 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]