Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 13 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 13 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 13 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 13 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 N 13 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 N 13 1676 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 65 NW 8 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 64 67 NW 8 5083 3399 1249 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 69 NW 8 5722 4768 2618 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 67 70 NW 13 6023 5049 2899 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 68 70 NW 13 6023 5049 2899 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 68 69 NW 13 5722 4768 2618 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 9 4800 3100 950 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 9 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 9 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 N 7 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 N 7 1676 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 7 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 7 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 17 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 17 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 17 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 22 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 22 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 22 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 N 21 1650 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 N 21 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 63 64 N 21 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 67 70 N 18 6023 5049 2899 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 69 73 N 18 7054 5982 3832 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 72 76 N 18 7588 6969 4819 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 74 78 N 13 7913 7395 5245 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 75 78 N 13 7913 7395 5245 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 75 76 N 13 7588 6969 4819 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 6618 5684 3534 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 68 68 N 9 5408 4387 2237 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 65 65 N 9 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 12 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 63 63 N 12 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 63 63 N 12 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 16 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 N 16 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 16 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 17 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 17 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 61 61 N 17 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 16 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 16 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 16 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 16 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 65 65 N 16 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 67 68 N 16 5408 4387 2237 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 70 73 N 12 7054 5982 3832 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 73 77 N 12 7751 7232 5082 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 75 79 N 12 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 77 81 N 10 8707 7881 5731 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 78 81 N 10 8707 7881 5731 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 78 79 N 10 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 75 75 N 8 7425 6572 4422 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 70 70 N 8 6023 5049 2899 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 8 5083 3399 1249 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 66 66 N 8 4800 3100 950 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 64 64 N 8 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 64 64 N 8 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 63 63 N 16 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 16 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 16 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 25 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 25 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 25 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 28 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 28 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 28 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 N 9 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 65 65 N 9 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 67 68 N 9 5408 4387 2237 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 70 73 N 13 7054 5982 3832 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 72 76 N 13 7588 6969 4819 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 74 78 N 13 7913 7395 5245 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 76 80 N 13 8337 7719 5569 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 77 80 N 13 8337 7719 5569 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 77 78 N 13 7913 7395 5245 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 74 74 NW 9 7261 6278 4128 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 69 69 NW 9 5722 4768 2618 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 66 66 NW 9 4800 3100 950 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 65 65 NW 8 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 6 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 6 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 6 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 63 63 N 7 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 7 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 7 1859 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1676 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1676 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 8 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 64 64 NE 8 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 67 68 NE 8 5408 4387 2237 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 70 72 NE 8 6618 5684 3534 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 73 76 NE 8 7588 6969 4819 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 75 79 NE 8 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 78 81 NE 7 8707 7881 5731 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 79 81 NE 7 8707 7881 5731 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 78 79 NE 7 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 76 76 NW 6 7588 6969 4819 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 6322 5371 3221 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 5408 4387 2237 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 67 67 N 3 5083 3399 1249 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 66 66 N 3 4800 3100 950 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 65 65 N 3 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 65 65 NE 3 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 3 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 3 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 3 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 64 64 E 3 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 3 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 63 63 E 3 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 64 64 E 3 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 66 66 E 3 4800 3100 950 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 68 69 E 3 5722 4768 2618 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 71 74 E 6 7261 6278 4128 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 74 77 E 6 7751 7232 5082 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 75 79 E 6 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 77 80 W 6 8337 7719 5569 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 78 81 W 6 8707 7881 5731 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 78 79 W 6 8076 7557 5407 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 7425 6572 4422 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 6 5722 4768 2618 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 4413 2800 650 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 2 3414 2263 113 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 3113 2150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 2 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 62 62 W 2 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 62 62 W 2 2809 2150 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 2 2270 2150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 1859 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]