Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.475633, -121.86, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SSW 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 78 78 SSW 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 S 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 S 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 76 76 S 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 S 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 S 4 6 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 S 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 S 4 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 84 SSW 4 9 1934 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 87 SSW 4 10 2470 2150 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 85 91 SSW 5 11 3679 2592 442 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 87 95 WSW 5 11 4291 3787 1637 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 88 96 WSW 5 12 4468 3903 1753 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 89 97 WSW 8 13 4783 4048 1898 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 89 95 W 8 14 4291 3787 1637 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 89 94 W 9 16 4065 3672 1522 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 88 91 WSW 9 16 3679 2592 442 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 86 87 W 9 14 2470 2150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 84 84 WNW 8 13 1934 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 8 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 SSW 6 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 SSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 S 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 76 76 S 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 S 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 S 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 S 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 S 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SSW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 75 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 WSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 82 WSW 5 10 1681 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 80 86 WSW 5 11 2345 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 82 90 W 5 12 3327 2467 317 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 84 92 W 6 13 3794 2696 546 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 85 93 W 8 14 3910 3319 1169 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 85 92 W 9 16 3794 2696 546 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 85 90 W 9 16 3327 2467 317 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 84 87 W 9 16 2470 2150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 9 16 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 WSW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 WSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 70 WSW 5 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 WSW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 75 W 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 78 W 6 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 82 W 8 14 1681 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 75 83 W 9 16 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 76 84 W 10 17 1934 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 75 82 W 10 18 1681 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 74 79 W 10 18 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 75 W 10 18 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 71 W 10 18 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 10 17 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 10 16 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 WSW 8 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 6 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 WSW 6 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 W 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 6 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 73 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 76 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 69 77 W 8 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 77 W 8 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 74 W 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 71 W 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 68 W 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 6 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 WSW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 6 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 SSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SSW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 SW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 SW 4 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 69 WSW 4 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 72 WSW 4 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 75 W 4 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 78 W 5 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 80 W 5 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 80 W 6 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 73 78 WNW 8 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 72 75 WNW 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 71 72 WNW 9 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 5 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 WSW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 SW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 SW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SSW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SW 4 8 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 SW 4 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 72 WSW 4 9 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 76 W 4 10 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 80 W 4 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 82 W 5 12 1681 2150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 75 83 W 6 13 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 76 83 W 8 13 1776 2150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 76 81 WNW 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 75 78 WNW 9 14 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 75 WNW 9 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 9 13 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 8 12 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 6 11 1624 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]