Detailed Predictions for: Ed Levin
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 400
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 23 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 23 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 45 N 24 712 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 N 25 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 52 N 26 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 52 54 N 28 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 54 55 N 26 4886 3782 1632 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 54 54 N 26 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 54 54 N 25 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 25 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 30 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 28 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 NE 25 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 NE 25 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 25 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NE 18 712 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NE 10 712 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NW 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NE 8 712 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 5 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SE 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 S 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 S 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 3 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 S 3 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 S 2 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 53 S 2 4189 2150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 53 55 S 2 4886 3782 1632 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 55 57 W 2 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 56 57 W 2 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 57 57 W 2 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 4886 3782 1632 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 5 4189 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 2 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 E 1 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 1 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 E 1 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 E 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 N 3 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 N 3 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 55 57 N 3 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 57 59 N 7 6895 5152 3002 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 58 59 N 7 6895 5152 3002 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 6895 5152 3002 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 6276 4867 2717 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 53 53 N 7 4189 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 2 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 712 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 1 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 NE 3 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 54 55 NE 3 4886 3782 1632 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 56 58 NE 3 6276 4867 2717 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 58 59 N 2 6895 5152 3002 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 59 60 N 2 7127 5658 3508 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 59 59 N 2 6895 5152 3002 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 6276 4867 2717 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 56 56 N 3 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 54 54 N 3 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 52 52 N 3 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 3 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 N 3 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 5 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 S 5 712 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 5 712 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 S 5 712 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 SE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 NW 3 712 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 51 NW 3 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 54 NW 3 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 55 56 NW 3 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 56 57 NW 3 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 4886 3782 1632 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 53 53 NW 6 4189 2150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 NW 6 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NW 6 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NE 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NE 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 NE 7 712 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 N 6 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 N 6 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 52 54 N 6 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 55 57 N 5 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 56 57 N 5 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 57 57 N 5 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 57 57 N 6 5723 4532 2382 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 5210 4160 2010 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 4566 3048 898 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 5 3807 2150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 5 3096 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 5 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 6 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NE 6 2084 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 6 1071 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 712 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]