Detailed Predictions for: Elk Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 22 712 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 N 22 712 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 22 712 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 N 17 712 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 17 712 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 N 17 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 48 NE 8 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 49 51 NE 8 5068 4052 52 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 50 52 NE 8 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 51 53 NE 8 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 8 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 53 53 NE 8 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 53 53 N 9 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 52 52 N 9 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 50 50 N 9 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 47 47 NE 10 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 712 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 NE 10 712 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 13 712 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NE 13 712 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NE 13 712 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 12 712 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NE 6 712 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 712 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NE 6 712 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 NE 3 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 49 50 E 2 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 51 53 E 2 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 54 56 E 2 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 55 57 S 1 7448 6725 2725 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 57 58 S 1 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 57 57 S 1 7448 6725 2725 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 57 57 S 1 7448 6725 2725 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 55 55 S 1 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 53 53 S 1 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 50 50 NE 2 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 47 47 NE 2 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 2 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 4454 4000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 52 52 NE 3 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 55 56 NE 2 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 57 58 NE 2 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NE 2 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 60 61 SE 2 7844 7522 3522 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 60 61 SE 2 7844 7522 3522 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 60 60 SE 2 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 59 59 SW 1 7625 7276 3276 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 58 58 SW 1 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 56 56 SW 1 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 54 54 NE 2 6820 5026 1026 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 2 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 49 49 NE 2 4454 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 2 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 2 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 2 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 2 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 2 6820 5026 1026 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 56 56 NE 2 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 58 58 E 2 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 2 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 59 60 E 2 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 59 60 S 3 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 58 58 S 3 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 56 56 S 3 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 55 55 S 2 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 53 53 S 2 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 52 52 S 2 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 51 51 NE 2 5068 4052 52 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 49 49 NE 2 4454 4000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 48 48 NE 2 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 712 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 53 53 SE 3 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 54 55 SE 3 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 54 55 SE 3 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 54 55 W 5 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 51 51 NW 3 5068 4052 52 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 3 4454 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 3 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 3681 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 3 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 5 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 6104 4806 806 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 55 56 N 3 7313 6047 2047 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 56 57 N 3 7448 6725 2725 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 57 59 N 3 7625 7276 3276 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 58 60 N 3 7721 7434 3434 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 58 59 N 3 7625 7276 3276 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 58 58 N 3 7537 7044 3044 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 57 57 N 2 7448 6725 2725 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 55 55 N 2 7079 5544 1544 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 6820 5026 1026 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 2 5593 4431 431 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 50 50 N 2 4832 4000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 48 48 N 2 4070 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 46 46 NE 3 2686 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NE 3 1720 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NE 3 712 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]