Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 W 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 NW 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 W 3 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 W 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 W 4 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 37 WNW 4 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 37 NW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 WNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 WNW 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 W 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 36 W 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 39 W 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 40 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 38 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 38 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 39 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 35 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 35 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 34 W 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 34 W 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 W 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 W 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 34 W 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 W 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 34 W 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 34 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 35 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 37 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 37 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 38 W 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 37 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 36 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 36 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 35 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 W 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 33 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 34 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 35 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 35 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 36 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 37 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 37 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 37 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 36 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 W 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 37 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 36 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 38 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 40 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 40 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 41 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 40 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 41 W 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 40 WNW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 38 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 38 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 37 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 37 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 37 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 39 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 40 NW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 42 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 42 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 44 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 43 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 42 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 42 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 41 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 39 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 38 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 37 W 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 38 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 38 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 38 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 38 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 38 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 39 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 38 WSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 37 WSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 WSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 37 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 WSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]