Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250707/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 SW 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 SW 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 SW 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 33 SSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 34 SSW 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 35 SSW 13 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 37 SSW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 38 SSW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 40 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 40 SSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 40 SW 13 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 39 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 38 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 37 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 SW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 SSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 SSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 SSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 SSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 37 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 38 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 39 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 40 SSW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 44 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 43 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 42 SW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 40 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 39 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 34 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 41 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 41 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 40 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 39 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 38 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 W 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 W 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 W 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 36 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 38 WNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 39 W 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 41 W 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 43 W 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 42 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 42 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 41 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 41 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 39 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 W 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 WSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 WSW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 SW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 36 SW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 38 SW 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 40 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 42 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 43 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 43 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 43 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 42 WSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 40 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 38 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 WSW 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 SW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 10 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 SSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 36 SSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 37 SSW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 39 SSW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 41 SSW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 41 SSW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 42 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 41 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 40 SW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 39 SW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 38 SW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 SW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 SW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]