Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 54 34 N 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 N 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 34 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 35 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 37 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 38 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 37 NW 4 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 36 NW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 35 NW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 34 NW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 33 W 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 33 SSE 0 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 SE 1 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 ESE 1 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 E 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 E 4 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 31 E 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 E 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 30 E 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 E 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 28 E 8 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 E 9 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 29 E 9 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 29 ENE 10 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 30 ENE 10 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 32 ENE 12 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 36 NE 13 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 38 NE 13 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 40 NE 13 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 41 NE 10 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 40 NE 10 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 39 NE 10 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 38 NE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 37 NE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 35 NE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 34 ENE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 33 ENE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 33 ENE 6 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 ENE 10 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 32 ENE 10 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 32 ENE 10 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 ENE 13 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 30 ENE 13 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 ENE 13 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 28 NE 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 27 NE 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 27 NE 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 27 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 28 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 29 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 32 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 33 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 35 ENE 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 36 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 36 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 36 ENE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 36 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 35 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 34 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 32 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 32 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 31 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 31 ENE 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 30 ENE 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 30 ENE 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 28 ENE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 28 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 27 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 27 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 32 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 35 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 37 ENE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 38 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 37 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 37 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 36 N 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 N 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 N 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 32 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 31 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 31 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 N 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 31 NNE 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 NNE 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 NNE 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 30 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 29 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 29 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 31 N 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 36 NNE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 36 N 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 36 N 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 35 N 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 35 NNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 NNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 33 NNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 32 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 31 NNW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 30 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 30 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 N 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 NNE 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 28 NNE 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 28 NNE 6 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 29 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 30 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 31 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 34 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 34 ENE 10 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 35 SE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 35 SE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 35 SE 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 35 SSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 34 SSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 SSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 33 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 33 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 33 S 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 S 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]