Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 NNW 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 NNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 N 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 34 N 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 33 NNE 5 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 NE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 34 NE 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 NE 5 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 NE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 36 NE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 39 NE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 39 NNE 9 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 40 N 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 40 N 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 39 NNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 39 NW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 37 NW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 WNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 36 WNW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 3 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 WNW 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 W 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 W 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 WSW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 SW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 SW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 SW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 SSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 SSW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 SSW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 S 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 36 S 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 37 S 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 37 S 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 37 S 16 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 37 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 37 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 37 SSW 14 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 36 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 WSW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 35 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 WNW 8 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 WNW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 NW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 NW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 NW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 NW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 33 NW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 35 NW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 36 NW 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 36 NW 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 36 NW 12 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 36 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 36 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 35 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 35 WNW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 NW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 NW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 NW 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 NW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 32 NW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 32 NW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 31 NNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 31 NNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 30 NNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 N 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 28 N 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 28 N 12 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 27 N 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 N 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 30 N 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 33 N 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 35 N 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 36 N 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 35 NNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 35 NNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 34 NNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 34 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 34 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 33 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 32 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 32 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 32 N 5 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 31 N 5 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 30 N 5 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 29 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 29 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 28 NE 6 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 31 NNE 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 32 NNE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 34 NNE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 35 NNE 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 36 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 35 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 35 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 35 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 34 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 NNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 N 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 N 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 33 N 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 33 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 N 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 NNE 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 NE 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 34 NNE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 35 NNE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 36 NNE 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 36 NNW 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 NNW 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 35 NNW 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 N 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 N 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]