Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Thu 49 29 N 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 N 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 N 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 29 N 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 N 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 35 N 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 38 N 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 40 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 41 N 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 41 N 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 40 N 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 39 N 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 37 N 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 NW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 NW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 SE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 SE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 E 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 26 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 26 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 25 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 26 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 33 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 37 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 39 E 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 40 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 39 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 38 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 38 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 37 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 35 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 33 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 31 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 30 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 30 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 29 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 28 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 25 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 25 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 25 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 26 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 28 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 32 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 35 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 37 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 39 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 39 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 38 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 37 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 32 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 30 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 29 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 27 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 27 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 26 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 25 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 24 NE 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 24 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 28 NE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 32 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 38 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 34 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 33 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 32 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 29 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 28 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 27 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 26 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 25 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 25 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 26 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 29 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 32 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 34 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 35 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 36 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 35 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 32 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 32 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 31 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 30 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 28 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 27 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 26 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 26 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 27 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 32 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 34 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 37 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 38 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 37 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 36 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 36 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 35 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 34 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 33 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 32 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 31 NW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 30 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 28 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]