Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 33 NW 13 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 32 NW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 32 NW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 31 NW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 32 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 NW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 NW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 NW 8 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 WNW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 32 WNW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 33 WNW 9 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 36 WNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 36 WNW 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 37 WNW 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 38 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 37 WNW 13 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 37 WNW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 36 WNW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 WNW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 WNW 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 33 WNW 13 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 33 WNW 12 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 WNW 11 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 NW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 NW 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 NW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 NW 6 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 NW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 NW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 31 NW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 34 NW 4 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 37 WNW 4 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 39 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 41 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 42 WNW 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 42 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 42 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 41 WNW 10 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 40 WNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 WNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 WNW 10 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 WNW 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 34 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 33 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 33 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 NW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 NW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 NW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 34 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 37 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 40 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 45 NNE 5 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 50 NNE 5 9 41 200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 68 53 NNE 5 9 317 200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 70 55 N 8 11 1265 200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 70 54 N 8 11 526 200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 68 51 N 8 11 87 200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 66 47 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 44 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 NW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 NW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 NNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 37 NNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 NNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 N 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 N 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 N 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 NNE 3 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 NE 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 NE 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 41 NE 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 45 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 48 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 49 NNE 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 49 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 48 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 46 W 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 42 W 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 40 W 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 9 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 6 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 33 W 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 SW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 SW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 35 SW 9 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 37 SW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 40 SW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 40 SW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 41 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 40 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 39 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 37 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 SW 16 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 WSW 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 WSW 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 WSW 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 WSW 14 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 W 13 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 W 12 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 33 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 35 W 12 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 37 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 39 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 39 W 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 39 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 38 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 37 W 18 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 36 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 WNW 19 25 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]