Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.71, -122.50, 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260516/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 NW 27 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 NW 27 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 NW 26 33 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 NW 26 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 NW 26 33 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 34 NW 25 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 NW 25 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 NW 26 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 35 NW 26 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 37 NW 26 31 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 40 NW 26 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 43 NW 27 31 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 44 NW 27 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 45 NW 28 33 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 45 NW 29 34 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 43 NW 31 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 40 NW 32 37 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 39 WNW 29 37 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 38 NW 31 39 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 36 NW 32 39 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 NW 32 40 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 NW 32 39 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 NW 31 36 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 34 NW 27 33 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 NW 27 33 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 NW 25 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 NW 23 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 33 NW 23 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 33 NW 20 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 NW 19 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 NW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 NW 17 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 NW 17 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 36 NW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 40 NW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 43 WNW 19 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 45 WNW 19 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 46 WNW 19 24 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 47 WNW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 46 WNW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 47 WNW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 43 NW 23 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 42 NW 23 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 41 NW 23 28 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 40 NW 24 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 40 NW 24 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 NW 24 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 NW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 NW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 40 NW 21 27 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 39 NNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 39 NNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 39 NNW 19 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 39 N 18 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 40 N 18 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 40 N 18 26 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 42 N 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 45 N 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 49 N 14 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 51 NNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 52 NNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 51 NNW 11 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 50 WNW 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 48 WNW 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 46 WNW 16 19 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 44 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 41 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 18 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 16 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 WNW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 34 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 33 W 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 W 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 34 W 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 37 NNE 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 41 NNE 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 47 NNE 2 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 52 WNW 4 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 53 WNW 4 8 28 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 52 WNW 4 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 49 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 46 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 44 WNW 11 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 41 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 40 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 11 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 W 8 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 36 SSW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 40 SSW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 44 SSW 2 4 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 48 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 49 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 48 W 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 47 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 45 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 42 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 40 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 39 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 W 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 37 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 W 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 WSW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 SW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 SW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 SW 4 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 SW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 33 SW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 SW 4 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 SW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 38 SW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 42 SW 3 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 47 SW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 48 SW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 47 SW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 46 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 44 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 42 WSW 9 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 40 WSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 38 WSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 WSW 8 11 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 35 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 35 WSW 5 8 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]