Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 54 34 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 N 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 NW 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 41 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 43 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 43 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 43 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 44 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 40 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 39 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 NW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 S 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 34 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 42 SW 0 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 44 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 45 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 46 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 46 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 45 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 43 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 41 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 41 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 37 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 S 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 SW 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 43 NE 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 45 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 47 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 47 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 48 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 47 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 44 W 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 43 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 SW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 S 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 W 1 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 NW 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 43 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 46 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 47 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 48 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 49 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 48 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 44 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 39 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 42 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 47 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 49 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 51 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 53 NE 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 53 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 70 52 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 48 NE 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 47 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 66 46 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 42 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 40 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 39 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 NE 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 38 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 E 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 37 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 42 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 47 NE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 49 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 50 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 52 NE 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 51 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 52 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 47 N 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 44 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 37 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 W 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 W 2 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]