Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 WSW 2 6 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NW 4 10 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NNE 6 13 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 6 12 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 6 11 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NNE 6 11 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 12 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 6 13 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 N 8 16 3708 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 N 8 17 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 56 59 N 9 19 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 60 64 N 10 20 8575 7738 3738 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 61 65 N 10 21 8841 7999 3999 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 62 65 N 10 21 8841 7999 3999 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 62 64 N 10 21 8575 7738 3738 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 62 63 N 10 21 8307 7477 3477 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 60 60 N 10 20 7513 6690 2690 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 10 20 6981 6416 2416 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 19 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 10 19 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 18 3424 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 N 9 18 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 9 17 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 9 17 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 16 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 16 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 14 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 N 8 16 3708 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 56 N 8 18 6567 6141 2141 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 59 63 N 9 19 8307 7477 3477 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 64 69 N 9 19 9892 9056 5056 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 66 72 N 9 19 10630 9836 5836 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 68 73 N 9 18 10868 10093 6093 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 69 73 N 9 18 10868 10093 6093 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 69 72 N 9 18 10630 9836 5836 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 67 68 NNE 9 17 9632 8793 4793 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 9 17 8575 7738 3738 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 59 59 NNE 9 17 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 6 12 6429 5941 1941 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 6 12 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 12 5556 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 9 5137 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 5 9 5137 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 9 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 4 8 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 4 8 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 4 8 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 4 8 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 4 8 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 4 8 5137 4000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 3 8 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 58 59 ENE 3 8 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 64 66 ENE 3 8 9106 8263 4263 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 71 75 E 5 11 11683 10572 6572 White 26
12 Noon Mon 76 81 E 5 11 12907 12722 8722 White 32
1 PM Mon 79 85 E 5 11 13712 13712 9712 White 36
2 PM Mon 81 87 E 5 12 14112 14112 10112 White 38
3 PM Mon 82 86 E 5 12 13913 13913 9913 White 37
4 PM Mon 80 83 E 5 12 13310 13310 9310 White 34
5 PM Mon 78 79 NE 5 10 12502 11883 7883 White 30
6 PM Mon 73 73 NE 5 10 10868 10093 6093 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 68 68 NE 5 10 9632 8793 4793 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 63 63 NNE 4 8 8307 7477 3477 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 60 60 NNE 4 8 7513 6690 2690 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 4 8 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 4 8 6981 6416 2416 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 4 8 6715 6278 2278 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 57 57 N 4 8 6715 6278 2278 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 6 6715 6278 2278 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 3 6 6567 6141 2141 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 3 6 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 3 6 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 3 6 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 55 55 ENE 3 6 6429 5941 1941 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 3 8 6981 6416 2416 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 62 63 ENE 3 8 8307 7477 3477 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 68 70 ENE 3 8 10150 9317 5317 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 73 76 E 5 10 11892 10808 6808 White 27
12 Noon Tue 77 81 E 5 10 12907 12722 8722 White 32
1 PM Tue 79 84 E 5 10 13511 13511 9511 White 35
2 PM Tue 80 84 SSE 6 14 13511 13511 9511 White 35
3 PM Tue 81 84 SSE 6 14 13511 13511 9511 White 35
4 PM Tue 80 82 SSE 6 14 13108 13108 9108 White 33
5 PM Tue 78 78 WSW 5 13 12300 11398 7398 White 29
6 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 5 13 11105 10334 6334 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 5 13 9892 9056 5056 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 5 11 8575 7738 3738 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 5 11 7777 6950 2950 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 11 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 5 10 6981 6416 2416 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 WNW 5 10 6567 6141 2141 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 5 10 6567 6141 2141 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 5 9 6429 5941 1941 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 5 9 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 9 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 10 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 10 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 10 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 55 55 WSW 6 12 6429 5941 1941 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 59 60 WSW 6 12 7513 6690 2690 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 64 66 WSW 6 12 9106 8263 4263 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 68 72 W 8 17 10630 9836 5836 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 71 76 W 8 17 11892 10808 6808 White 27
1 PM Wed 73 78 W 8 17 12300 11398 7398 White 29
2 PM Wed 74 79 W 11 21 12502 11883 7883 White 30
3 PM Wed 74 78 W 11 21 12300 11398 7398 White 29
4 PM Wed 73 75 W 11 21 11683 10572 6572 White 26
5 PM Wed 71 72 W 12 24 10630 9836 5836 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 24 9370 8529 4529 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 12 24 7777 6950 2950 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 13 24 6715 6278 2278 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 24 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 24 5976 4000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 52 52 W 12 21 5976 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 12 21 5556 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 12 21 5556 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 50 50 W 12 23 5137 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 12 23 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 12 23 3708 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 13 23 3424 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 13 23 3139 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 13 23 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 14 25 3139 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 WNW 14 25 3990 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 WNW 14 25 6153 5114 1114 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 56 58 WNW 13 27 6981 6416 2416 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 58 61 WNW 13 27 7777 6950 2950 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 60 63 WNW 13 27 8307 7477 3477 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 61 65 NW 14 28 8841 7999 3999 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 61 64 NW 14 28 8575 7738 3738 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 60 62 NW 14 28 8039 7214 3214 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 58 59 NW 14 28 7247 6553 2553 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 54 54 NW 14 28 6291 5527 1527 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 50 50 NW 14 28 5137 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 46 46 NW 16 31 3139 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NW 16 31 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NW 16 31 2867 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]