Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SE 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SE 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SE 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SE 8 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SE 9 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SE 9 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 9 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 20 2757 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 S 12 21 4593 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 63 64 S 13 21 5275 4444 444 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 63 64 SSW 13 18 5275 4444 444 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 63 64 SSW 13 13 5275 4444 444 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 62 63 SSW 16 19 4877 4241 241 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 11 14 4449 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 58 58 W 9 14 3513 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 WNW 9 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 NW 10 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 NW 8 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 WNW 8 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 6 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NW 6 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NW 6 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NW 6 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 9 17 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 10 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 N 9 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 9 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 9 17 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NNW 9 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 NNW 12 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NNW 12 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 NNW 12 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 55 NNW 12 13 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 55 NNW 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 NNW 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 NNW 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 49 NNW 6 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 NNW 6 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 NNW 6 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 N 9 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 N 9 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 N 9 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 11 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 N 11 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 N 11 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 13 21 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 N 13 21 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 N 13 21 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 11 24 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 N 11 24 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 N 11 24 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 N 12 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 N 12 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 N 12 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 N 13 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 51 N 13 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 N 13 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 16 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 51 N 16 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 N 16 23 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 N 12 25 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 25 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 N 12 25 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 N 12 27 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 N 12 27 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 N 12 27 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 N 6 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 N 6 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 N 6 19 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 6 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 6 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 6 18 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NNE 8 20 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 8 20 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 8 20 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NNE 8 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 8 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 8 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NNE 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 NNE 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NNE 8 9 2757 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 55 N 9 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 56 N 9 11 2757 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 N 4 6 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 N 4 6 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 N 4 6 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 N 5 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 N 9 11 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 56 N 9 11 2757 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 58 N 9 11 3513 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 58 N 12 16 3513 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 57 N 12 16 3138 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 16 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 53 N 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 N 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 N 11 14 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 9 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 NNE 9 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 55 NNE 9 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 58 NNE 9 12 3513 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 57 N 10 12 3138 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 57 N 10 12 3138 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 N 10 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 N 10 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 N 10 12 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NNE 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 NNE 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 NNE 8 10 2654 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NNE 6 8 2654 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]