Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NNE 1 3 4351 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 4 4351 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 1 3 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 1 3 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 56 56 ENE 1 2 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 NE 1 2 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 4 3862 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 2 4 3597 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 3 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 NE 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 2 4 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 62 NNE 2 4 5622 4473 473 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 62 65 N 3 4 5901 5613 1613 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 65 68 N 5 7 6432 5896 1896 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 65 67 NNE 6 8 6221 5819 1819 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 65 66 NNE 8 12 6031 5741 1741 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 65 65 N 7 12 5901 5613 1613 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 63 63 N 7 13 5746 4545 545 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 4 6 4780 4349 349 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 6 4546 4175 175 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 6 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 55 55 NNW 4 7 3862 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NNW 4 7 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NW 3 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NW 4 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 3 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NNW 3 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 3 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 3 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 NE 3 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 NNE 4 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 NNE 4 6 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 58 NNE 5 7 4351 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 58 61 NE 4 6 4780 4349 349 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 59 61 NE 4 5 4780 4349 349 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 59 60 NE 4 6 4546 4175 175 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 59 59 NNE 4 7 4474 4098 98 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 57 57 NE 4 8 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 56 56 NE 4 6 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 6 3597 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 ENE 3 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 ENE 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 ENE 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 ENE 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 E 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 E 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 E 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 ESE 2 5 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 2 5 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 ESE 2 4 3597 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 SSE 2 3 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 61 SSW 1 1 4780 4349 349 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 61 64 WSW 1 2 5823 4773 773 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 63 66 WNW 2 3 6031 5741 1741 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 64 66 WNW 2 4 6031 5741 1741 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 64 65 WNW 2 4 5901 5613 1613 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 63 63 NW 2 4 5746 4545 545 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 62 62 NW 3 5 5622 4473 473 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 60 60 N 2 5 4546 4175 175 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 58 58 NNE 3 6 4351 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 56 56 N 2 5 4098 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 2 4 3862 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 1 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 1 2 3374 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]