Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NW 4 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 NW 4 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 5 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NW 5 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 NW 5 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 WNW 4 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 85 WNW 5 11 7906 5843 1843 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 86 91 W 6 12 12185 9006 5006 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 88 94 W 8 14 13172 12137 8137 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 89 96 W 8 17 13633 12743 8743 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 90 96 W 8 18 13633 12743 8743 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 91 96 W 9 18 13633 12743 8743 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 89 92 W 9 18 12523 11193 7193 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 88 90 WNW 8 18 11874 8547 4547 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 86 86 WNW 6 16 8247 6527 2527 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 79 79 WNW 4 12 4272 4000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 73 73 NW 2 8 2788 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 NW 2 6 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 NNW 2 6 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NNW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 NNW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 NNW 1 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 NW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 NNW 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NNW 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NNW 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 WNW 4 9 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 79 WNW 4 9 4272 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 80 85 WNW 8 16 7906 5843 1843 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 82 88 WNW 8 16 9092 7881 3881 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 82 88 WNW 8 16 9092 7881 3881 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 83 89 WNW 9 18 11428 8192 4192 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 84 89 WNW 9 18 11428 8192 4192 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 83 86 WNW 9 18 8247 6527 2527 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 81 83 WNW 9 17 7719 4459 459 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 78 78 WNW 9 17 4053 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 9 17 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 5 12 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 12 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 12 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 WNW 8 18 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 WNW 8 18 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 8 18 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 8 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 8 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 8 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 W 6 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 6 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 WNW 6 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 65 WNW 6 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 73 NNW 9 17 2788 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 77 NNW 9 17 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 73 79 NNW 9 17 4272 4000 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 74 80 NNW 9 19 4465 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 74 79 NNW 9 19 4272 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 74 77 NNW 9 19 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 73 75 NNW 8 18 3368 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 70 NNW 8 18 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 NNW 8 18 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 5 14 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NNW 5 14 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNW 5 14 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 4 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 W 4 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 4 10 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 W 2 5 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 3 6 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 WNW 3 6 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 WNW 3 6 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 76 NW 5 12 3618 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 75 81 NW 5 12 4756 4049 49 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 76 82 NW 5 12 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 77 83 NW 6 16 7719 4459 459 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 78 83 NW 6 16 7719 4459 459 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 78 81 NW 6 16 4756 4049 49 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 76 77 NW 6 16 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 16 2788 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 16 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 NW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 SSW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 70 SSW 2 4 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 78 SSW 5 12 4053 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 77 82 SSW 5 12 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 78 84 SSW 5 12 7772 4743 743 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 78 83 SW 6 16 7719 4459 459 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 78 82 SW 6 16 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 78 81 SW 6 16 4756 4049 49 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 76 77 W 5 13 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 13 2788 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 13 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 SW 1 3 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 77 S 4 10 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 75 81 S 4 10 4756 4049 49 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 76 82 S 4 10 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 76 82 SW 5 13 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 77 82 SW 5 13 5994 4266 266 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 77 80 SW 5 13 4465 4000 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 76 77 WSW 4 11 3835 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 4 11 2788 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 4 11 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 WNW 1 2 2585 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]