Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 18 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 18 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 18 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 17 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 N 17 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 63 N 17 6563 5621 1621 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 65 68 N 15 7739 7218 3218 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 68 71 N 15 8335 7715 3715 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 68 72 N 15 8714 7881 3881 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 70 74 N 15 9459 8273 4273 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 70 73 N 15 9089 8046 4046 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 69 70 N 15 8071 7550 3550 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 66 66 N 14 7406 6532 2532 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 62 62 N 14 6259 5296 1296 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 14 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 12 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 12 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 12 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 13 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 13 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 13 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 15 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 15 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 15 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 2690 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 N 13 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 N 13 5644 4675 675 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 65 67 N 13 7573 6916 2916 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 69 72 N 10 8714 7881 3881 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 72 76 N 10 10184 9020 5020 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 72 76 N 10 10184 9020 5020 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 74 78 N 8 10739 9747 5747 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 74 77 N 8 10538 9386 5386 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 73 74 N 8 9459 8273 4273 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 70 70 N 6 8071 7550 3550 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 6 7239 6231 2231 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 5316 4292 292 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 9 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 8 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 8 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 64 64 E 2 6975 5927 1927 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 70 72 E 2 8714 7881 3881 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 74 77 NW 2 10538 9386 5386 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 77 81 NW 2 11455 10690 6690 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 78 82 NW 2 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 80 84 N 6 12057 11388 7388 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 80 83 N 6 11953 11138 7138 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 79 80 N 6 11204 10490 6490 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 75 75 N 7 9824 8649 4649 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 7905 7384 3384 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 6259 5296 1296 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 9 5644 4675 675 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 58 58 NE 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 58 58 N 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 12 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NE 12 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 12 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NE 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 64 NE 9 6975 5927 1927 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 70 72 NE 9 8714 7881 3881 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 73 76 NE 9 10184 9020 5020 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 76 80 NE 9 11204 10490 6490 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 77 81 NE 9 11455 10690 6690 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 78 82 N 13 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 79 82 N 13 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 77 78 N 13 10739 9747 5747 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 74 74 N 9 9459 8273 4273 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 9 7739 7218 3218 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 61 61 N 9 5953 4982 982 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 59 59 N 9 5316 4292 292 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 9 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 57 57 N 9 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 7 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NE 7 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NE 7 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 6975 5927 1927 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 70 71 NE 7 8335 7715 3715 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 74 77 E 8 10538 9386 5386 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 77 81 E 8 11455 10690 6690 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 78 82 E 8 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 80 83 SE 10 11953 11138 7138 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 80 83 SE 10 11953 11138 7138 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 79 80 SE 10 11204 10490 6490 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 75 75 E 7 9824 8649 4649 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 69 69 E 7 7905 7384 3384 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 62 62 E 7 6259 5296 1296 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 60 60 E 5 5644 4675 675 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 58 58 E 5 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 58 58 E 5 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 5 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 5 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 5 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 E 5 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 E 5 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 5 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 65 65 E 3 7239 6231 2231 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 70 71 E 3 8335 7715 3715 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 74 77 E 6 10538 9386 5386 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 77 81 E 6 11455 10690 6690 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 78 82 E 6 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 79 82 E 7 11704 10890 6890 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 80 83 E 7 11953 11138 7138 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 78 79 E 7 10951 10104 6104 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 74 74 N 6 9459 8273 4273 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 68 68 N 6 7739 7218 3218 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 61 61 N 6 5953 4982 982 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 4993 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 4689 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 3 4302 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 2985 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NW 3 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 NW 3 3294 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NW 3 2985 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]