Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 ESE 10 13 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 ESE 12 16 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 ESE 13 17 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 ESE 13 17 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 SE 13 17 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 SE 13 16 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 SE 12 16 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 SE 12 16 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 SE 12 16 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 SE 13 17 4538 4000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 85 88 SE 14 18 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 88 92 SSE 13 17 9138 7978 3978 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 89 94 SSE 12 16 9794 8618 4618 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 90 96 SSE 11 14 10438 9405 5405 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 91 97 SSE 11 13 10701 9729 5729 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 91 95 SSE 9 11 10118 9078 5078 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 91 94 SSE 8 10 9794 8618 4618 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 90 91 S 8 9 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 88 88 WSW 11 14 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 84 84 WSW 5 6 6980 5391 1391 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 76 76 NW 2 2 4760 4227 227 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 1 2 3945 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 2 2 3792 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 1 1 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 ESE 0 1 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 SE 2 2 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 3 4 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 4 5 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SE 5 6 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SE 5 6 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SE 5 6 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SSE 6 8 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SSE 6 8 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 SSE 8 9 4237 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 82 84 SSE 9 11 6980 5391 1391 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 86 90 S 11 13 8161 7599 3599 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 86 91 S 11 13 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 87 92 S 11 13 9138 7978 3978 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 88 93 SSW 11 13 9468 8080 4080 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 88 92 SSW 11 13 9138 7978 3978 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 88 91 SSW 11 13 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 87 88 SSW 6 9 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 84 84 SSW 6 9 6980 5391 1391 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 82 82 SSW 6 9 5985 5055 1055 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 78 78 SSE 3 4 4981 4645 645 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 73 73 SSE 3 4 4237 4000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 3 4 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 NNE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NNE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 72 ENE 2 3 3945 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 78 80 ENE 2 3 5119 4865 865 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 83 87 N 4 5 7632 6957 2957 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 85 90 N 4 5 8161 7599 3599 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 86 91 N 4 5 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 86 91 N 8 10 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 86 90 N 8 10 8161 7599 3599 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 86 88 N 8 10 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 85 86 NE 8 10 7391 6475 2475 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 83 83 NE 8 10 6527 5116 1116 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 80 80 NE 8 10 5119 4865 865 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 76 76 NE 9 11 4760 4227 227 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 72 72 NE 9 11 3945 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 69 69 NE 9 11 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 ENE 6 9 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 ENE 6 9 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 6 9 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 E 3 4 2804 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 E 3 4 4649 4000 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 81 83 E 3 4 6527 5116 1116 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 87 91 ESE 5 8 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 89 94 ESE 5 8 9794 8618 4618 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 89 95 ESE 5 8 10118 9078 5078 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 88 93 SW 8 10 9468 8080 4080 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 89 93 SW 8 10 9468 8080 4080 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 88 91 SW 8 10 8707 7845 3845 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 87 88 W 5 8 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 85 85 W 5 8 7186 5941 1941 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 82 82 W 5 8 5985 5055 1055 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 4 5 5058 4755 755 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 74 74 W 4 5 4538 4000 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 4 5 3792 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 WSW 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 W 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 W 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 W 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 W 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 W 4 5 4237 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 78 80 W 4 5 5119 4865 865 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 83 87 SW 8 10 7632 6957 2957 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 85 90 SW 8 10 8161 7599 3599 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 86 92 SW 8 10 9138 7978 3978 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 85 90 W 9 11 8161 7599 3599 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 9 11 7993 7365 3365 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 9 11 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 84 85 W 8 10 7186 5941 1941 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 10 5427 4976 976 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 10 4870 4534 534 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 6 8 4538 4000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 6 8 3792 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 6 8 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 W 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 4 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 WSW 4 5 3869 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 76 78 WSW 4 5 4981 4645 645 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 81 85 SW 8 10 7186 5941 1941 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 83 88 SW 8 10 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 83 88 SW 8 10 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 83 88 W 10 12 7880 7161 3161 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 83 87 W 10 12 7632 6957 2957 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 83 85 W 10 12 7186 5941 1941 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 82 83 WNW 8 10 6527 5116 1116 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 80 80 WNW 8 10 5119 4865 865 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 77 77 WNW 8 10 4870 4534 534 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 5 6 4538 4000 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 6 3792 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 6 2621 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]