Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.352496, -120.735514, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 ESE 3 4 3227 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 E 4 5 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 SE 4 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 SSE 6 8 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 SSE 6 9 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 SE 8 9 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 SE 5 8 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SE 3 4 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 S 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 82 85 WSW 3 4 4189 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 88 93 WSW 8 9 9475 5991 1991 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 90 97 WSW 9 11 15266 10295 6295 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 92 100 SW 10 13 15699 15210 11210 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 93 102 SW 11 13 15986 15497 11497 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 94 103 SW 11 14 16130 15640 11640 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 95 102 SW 11 14 15986 15497 11497 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 95 100 WSW 16 19 15699 15210 11210 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 93 96 SW 14 18 15122 8925 4925 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 91 92 SW 13 16 7774 5521 1521 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 88 88 SW 10 13 5066 4183 183 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 82 82 SSW 5 6 3469 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 76 SE 4 5 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 SE 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 SE 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SE 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SE 5 8 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 SE 5 8 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 8 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SE 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SE 9 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SE 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 SE 6 9 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 SSE 6 9 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 80 S 8 9 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 87 S 9 11 4665 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 85 92 S 11 14 7774 5521 1521 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 87 95 S 11 14 14978 7708 3708 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 88 97 S 11 14 15266 10295 6295 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 89 97 SSW 13 18 15266 10295 6295 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 88 95 SSW 13 18 14978 7708 3708 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 88 93 SSW 13 18 9475 5991 1991 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 86 89 SSW 13 16 5553 4420 420 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 83 84 SSW 13 16 3950 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 78 78 SSW 13 16 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 74 74 SSE 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 SSE 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 SSE 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 SE 10 12 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SE 10 12 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SE 10 12 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 13 17 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 13 17 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 13 17 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 14 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 14 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 14 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 61 SSE 17 20 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 69 SSE 17 20 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 76 SSE 17 20 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 83 S 18 23 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 79 87 S 18 23 4665 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 80 89 S 18 23 5553 4420 420 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 81 89 S 17 20 5553 4420 420 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 81 88 S 17 20 5066 4183 183 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 80 85 S 17 20 4189 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 78 81 S 16 20 3227 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 75 76 S 16 20 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 S 16 20 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 SSE 12 16 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 12 16 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 12 16 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SE 11 13 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 11 13 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 SE 11 13 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 SE 14 19 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 14 19 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SE 14 19 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SE 13 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 13 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SE 13 18 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 SSW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 67 SSW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 74 SSW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 80 S 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 84 S 8 10 3950 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 78 87 S 8 10 4665 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 80 89 SSW 9 11 5553 4420 420 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 81 88 SSW 9 11 5066 4183 183 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 81 86 SSW 9 11 4428 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 80 83 SW 8 10 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 77 78 SW 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 8 10 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 4 5 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 4 5 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 4 5 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 W 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 69 W 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 77 W 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 83 W 5 6 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 79 87 W 5 6 4665 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 81 90 W 5 6 6029 4656 656 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 82 91 W 6 8 7269 5041 1041 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 83 90 W 6 8 6029 4656 656 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 6 8 5553 4420 420 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 84 87 W 5 6 4665 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 5 6 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 4 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 3 4 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 3 4 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 NNW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 2 3 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 NNE 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 75 NNE 2 2 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 83 NNE 2 2 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 83 90 NNE 6 8 6029 4656 656 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 86 94 NNE 6 8 14698 7109 3109 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 88 97 NNE 6 8 15266 10295 6295 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 89 98 W 6 9 15410 14909 10909 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 90 97 W 6 9 15266 10295 6295 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 90 95 W 6 9 14978 7708 3708 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 89 92 W 5 8 7774 5521 1521 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 87 88 W 5 8 5066 4183 183 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 5 8 3710 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 5 6 3094 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]