Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.843037, -121.427406, 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 60 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 68 NNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 70 73 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 78 NW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 77 81 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 79 83 WNW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 80 83 W 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 80 82 W 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 74 74 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 69 69 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 66 66 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 64 64 SE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 62 62 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 62 62 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 60 60 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 58 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 68 70 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 72 75 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 76 80 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 79 83 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 81 85 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 82 85 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 82 84 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 81 81 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 64 64 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 61 61 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 60 60 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 59 59 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 56 56 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 58 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 66 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 70 73 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 74 78 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 77 81 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 79 82 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 81 84 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 81 82 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 74 74 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 57 57 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 56 56 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 53 53 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 52 52 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 63 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 66 69 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 71 75 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 75 79 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 77 81 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 79 82 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 79 81 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 76 76 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 63 63 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 62 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 65 68 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 69 72 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 73 77 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 78 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 77 78 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 59 59 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 57 57 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 56 56 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 53 53 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 52 52 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 51 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 52 52 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 60 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 63 65 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 67 69 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 72 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 73 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 72 74 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 72 73 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 59 59 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]