Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.843037, -121.427406, 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 ENE 8 13 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 ENE 6 12 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 10 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 5 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 4 8 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 5 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 10 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 NE 5 11 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 55 NE 5 11 4176 4590 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 55 59 NE 6 13 4813 4590 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 59 65 NE 6 13 6260 6094 1504 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 62 68 NNE 6 13 6803 6257 1667 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 64 70 N 6 13 7386 6587 1997 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 66 71 N 6 12 7719 6777 2187 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 67 70 NNW 5 12 7386 6587 1997 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 68 70 NNW 5 12 7386 6587 1997 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 68 69 NNW 5 10 7095 6407 1817 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 4 9 6601 6202 1612 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 4 8 6260 6094 1504 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 59 59 ESE 3 6 4813 4590 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 56 56 SSE 3 6 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 53 53 SSE 3 6 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 ESE 2 5 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 4 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 ESE 2 4 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 2 4 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 NE 2 4 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 56 NE 2 4 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 59 62 WNW 5 12 6098 4809 219 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 61 64 WNW 5 12 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 62 66 WNW 5 12 6420 6148 1558 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 10 19 6420 6148 1558 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 10 19 6260 6094 1504 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 10 19 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 63 64 W 12 23 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 12 23 6098 4809 219 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 12 23 5345 4590 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 19 4631 4590 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 19 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 10 19 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 4 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 WSW 4 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 4 9 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 W 2 5 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 2 5 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 W 2 5 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 W 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 50 W 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 54 W 3 6 3834 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 57 W 8 14 4472 4590 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 55 60 W 8 14 5345 4590 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 58 64 W 8 14 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 60 66 W 11 20 6420 6148 1558 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 61 66 W 11 20 6420 6148 1558 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 61 65 W 11 20 6260 6094 1504 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 61 63 W 10 20 6152 5318 728 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 62 63 W 10 20 6152 5318 728 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 20 5924 4628 38 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 16 5345 4590 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 16 4472 4590 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 16 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 SW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 3 6 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 ENE 1 2 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 56 ENE 1 2 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 57 62 ENE 1 2 6098 4809 219 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 61 67 N 3 6 6601 6202 1612 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 64 72 N 3 6 9140 7067 2477 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 67 75 N 3 6 10902 8174 3584 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 69 76 NW 6 12 11413 9850 5260 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 70 76 NW 6 12 11413 9850 5260 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 71 75 NW 6 12 10902 8174 3584 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 72 75 WNW 8 16 10902 8174 3584 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 71 72 WNW 8 16 9140 7067 2477 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 70 70 WNW 8 16 7386 6587 1997 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 5 9 6803 6257 1667 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 5 9 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 5 9 5345 4590 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 56 56 S 2 4 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 S 2 4 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 4 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 ESE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 ESE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 ESE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 56 ENE 2 3 4314 4590 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 59 62 ENE 2 3 6098 4809 219 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 64 69 ENE 2 3 7095 6407 1817 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 68 75 NNW 3 8 10902 8174 3584 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 71 79 NNW 3 8 13481 11292 6702 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 74 82 NNW 3 8 14391 13419 8829 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 76 84 WNW 8 16 15776 13813 9223 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 77 83 WNW 8 16 15082 13616 9026 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 77 82 WNW 8 16 14391 13419 8829 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 76 79 W 10 20 13481 11292 6702 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 75 76 W 10 20 11413 9850 5260 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 10 20 10375 7657 3067 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 6 13 7719 6777 2187 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 6 13 6803 6257 1667 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 13 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 60 60 S 3 5 5345 4590 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 3 5 4472 4590 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 5 4176 4590 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 53 53 S 2 3 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 S 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 SSE 2 3 3031 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 2 3 3263 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 2 3 4176 4590 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 57 58 S 2 3 4631 4590 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 61 64 S 2 3 6206 5906 1316 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 66 71 S 2 3 7719 6777 2187 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 70 76 WNW 5 10 11413 9850 5260 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 73 80 WNW 5 10 13680 11742 7152 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 75 82 WNW 5 10 14391 13419 8829 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 76 82 W 11 21 14391 13419 8829 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 77 82 W 11 21 14391 13419 8829 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 77 81 W 11 21 13878 12070 7480 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 76 78 WSW 13 26 12157 10787 6197 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 75 76 WSW 13 26 11413 9850 5260 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 13 26 10375 7657 3067 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 10 20 7719 6777 2187 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 10 20 6601 6202 1612 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 10 20 6152 5318 728 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]