Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Altitude (f): 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 24 24 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 28 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 31 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 36 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 39 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 40 NE 6 3974 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 41 42 NE 6 4757 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 NE 6 4988 4590 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 42 42 NE 5 4757 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 NE 5 3974 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 NE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 22 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 36 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 41 SE 6 4368 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 44 45 SE 6 6041 4748 158 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 47 48 SE 6 7301 6008 1418 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 48 49 SE 6 7445 6692 2102 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 49 49 SE 6 7445 6692 2102 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 48 48 E 6 7301 6008 1418 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 44 44 E 6 5514 4590 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 6 3974 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 27 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 E 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 43 E 3 4988 4590 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 46 47 E 3 7062 5489 899 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 49 50 NE 5 7535 7039 2449 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 5 7724 7435 2845 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 7625 7275 2685 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 7445 6692 2102 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 46 46 N 5 6755 4982 392 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 4757 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 SE 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 SE 8 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 SE 8 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 SE 8 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 SE 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 37 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 42 SE 5 4757 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 SE 5 6755 4982 392 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 48 49 E 3 7445 6692 2102 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 50 50 E 3 7535 7039 2449 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 50 50 E 3 7535 7039 2449 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 49 49 S 3 7445 6692 2102 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 46 46 S 3 6755 4982 392 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 43 43 S 3 4988 4590 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 39 39 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 S 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 SE 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 S 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 S 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 S 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 S 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 S 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 S 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 37 SW 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 41 SW 5 4368 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 43 SW 5 4988 4590 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 44 45 W 5 6041 4748 158 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 6755 4982 392 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 7062 5489 899 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 47 47 N 3 7062 5489 899 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 45 45 N 3 6041 4748 158 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 41 41 N 3 4368 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 E 2 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 E 2 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 E 2 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 E 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 E 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 E 3 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 27 27 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 E 5 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 35 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 39 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 43 E 6 4988 4590 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 45 46 E 7 6755 4982 392 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 47 48 E 7 7301 6008 1418 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 48 48 E 7 7301 6008 1418 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 47 47 E 8 7062 5489 899 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 8 5514 4590 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 40 40 E 8 3974 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 E 7 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 E 6 3586 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]