Detailed Predictions for: Hat Creek Rim
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.843037, -121.427406, 4590
LZ Altitude (f): 3575
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SE 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SE 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NW 3 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 NW 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 73 WNW 5 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 78 W 6 14 4989 4590 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 75 81 W 9 19 7880 4981 391 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 77 83 WSW 10 21 8560 7747 3157 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 78 83 WSW 11 24 8560 7747 3157 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 78 81 WSW 11 24 7880 4981 391 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 10 23 7757 4689 99 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 9 20 4695 4590 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 6 13 4222 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 73 SSW 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 S 9 17 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 S 10 18 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 S 9 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SSE 8 13 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 SSE 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 SSE 6 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 5 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SSE 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSE 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 19 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 SW 6 19 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 SW 6 19 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 71 WSW 12 32 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 76 WSW 12 32 4425 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 77 WSW 12 32 4695 4590 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 72 77 SW 18 36 4695 4590 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 73 77 SW 18 36 4695 4590 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 71 74 SW 18 36 4002 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 71 WSW 18 36 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 18 36 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 18 36 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 18 41 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 SW 18 41 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 SW 18 41 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 SW 6 18 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 6 18 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 18 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 E 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 53 E 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 N 5 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 63 N 5 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 67 N 5 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 69 N 6 14 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 69 N 6 14 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 69 N 6 14 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 67 N 6 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 6 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 NNE 5 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 5 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NNE 5 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 E 3 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 E 3 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 3 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 ESE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 ESE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 4 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 4 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 ESE 4 6 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 E 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 58 E 6 11 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 65 NE 4 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 71 NE 4 10 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 76 NE 4 10 4425 4590 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 73 78 N 4 11 4989 4590 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 75 79 N 4 11 6513 4590 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 75 78 N 4 11 4989 4590 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 74 75 NNW 5 12 4222 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 5 12 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 68 NNW 5 12 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 1 2 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SE 3 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 SE 3 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SE 3 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 4 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 SE 4 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 SE 4 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 71 N 4 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 76 N 4 9 4425 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 79 N 4 9 6513 4590 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 75 80 WNW 6 14 7757 4689 99 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 76 80 WNW 6 14 7757 4689 99 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 75 78 WNW 6 14 4989 4590 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 74 75 W 8 17 4222 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 17 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 8 17 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 SSW 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 S 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 4 8 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 3 5 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 2 3 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 ESE 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 ESE 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 70 N 4 9 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 75 N 4 9 4222 4590 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 77 N 4 9 4695 4590 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 74 79 NW 4 12 6513 4590 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 75 79 NW 4 12 6513 4590 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 75 78 NW 4 12 4989 4590 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 74 75 W 6 16 4222 4590 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 6 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 16 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 2 4 3882 4590 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]