Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NNW 17 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 49 N 13 25 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 49 NNW 11 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 48 49 NNW 11 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 11 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 N 12 21 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 12 21 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 12 21 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NNE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NNE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NNE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 18 31 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 18 31 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NNE 18 31 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NNE 18 33 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NNE 18 33 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 18 33 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 21 39 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NNE 21 39 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 NNE 21 39 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 NE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 45 NE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 47 NE 23 41 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 47 NE 19 35 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 47 NE 19 35 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 45 46 NE 19 35 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 16 28 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 23 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 23 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 23 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 18 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 18 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NNE 10 18 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 9 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 9 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 NE 9 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 47 WSW 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 WSW 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 51 WSW 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 50 WSW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 50 WSW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 49 WSW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 WSW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NW 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 ENE 5 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 ENE 5 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 ENE 5 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 3 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 3 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 3 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 ENE 3 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 S 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 S 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 S 2 4 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 SW 2 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 SW 2 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 47 48 SW 2 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 2 5 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 E 4 6 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 46 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 46 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 45 45 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 44 SW 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 45 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 45 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 45 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 W 4 9 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 5 10 6067 6067 267 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 19 6067 6067 267 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]