Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 251212/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NNE 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 N 3 4 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 59 N 3 4 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 60 N 3 4 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 59 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 59 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 58 N 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 11 17 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 11 17 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 11 17 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 NE 11 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 11 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 11 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 10 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 10 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 10 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 53 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NNE 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 54 SSW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 SSW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 2 3 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 2 3 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 2 3 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 N 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 9 12 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NNE 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NNE 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 48 E 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 E 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 SSW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 50 SSW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 SSW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 48 SW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 SW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 SW 4 6 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NW 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 8 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NNW 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NNW 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 46 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 48 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 8 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 9 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 45 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 45 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 WSW 8 13 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 43 43 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 W 10 16 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 12 18 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 W 10 14 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 37 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 37 37 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 6 10 5331 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 8 11 5331 5800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]