Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 WNW 10 16 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 10 16 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 WNW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 WNW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 65 W 6 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 67 W 6 10 6535 6018 218 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 64 70 W 6 10 8286 6534 734 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 65 71 W 11 17 8686 7770 1970 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 65 70 W 11 17 8286 6534 734 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 66 69 W 11 17 7918 6018 218 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 64 66 WNW 11 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 11 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 11 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 W 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 W 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 8 12 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 9 13 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 10 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 W 10 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 10 17 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 55 W 13 21 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 56 W 13 21 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 58 W 13 21 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 57 WSW 14 23 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 55 WSW 14 23 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 56 WSW 14 23 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 51 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 W 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 19 29 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 WNW 19 29 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 WNW 19 29 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 18 28 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 18 28 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 18 28 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NW 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 NW 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NW 17 26 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 10 16 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 NW 10 16 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 NW 10 16 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 49 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 52 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 55 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 57 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 57 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 56 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 55 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 WNW 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 WNW 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 WNW 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 WNW 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NW 6 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NW 6 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NW 6 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 5 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 WNW 5 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 54 WNW 5 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 59 SW 2 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 62 SW 2 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 64 SW 2 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 65 SW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 64 SW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 62 SW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 60 WSW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 NW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 N 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 ENE 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 ENE 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 61 S 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 63 S 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 65 S 3 5 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 64 SW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 63 SW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 62 SW 5 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 59 WSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 WSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 S 0 2 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 0 2 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 S 0 2 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NNW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NNW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 2 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 5 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 5 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 5 10 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 ENE 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 ENE 3 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 59 SSE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 61 SSE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 62 SSE 3 6 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 62 S 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 63 S 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 61 S 4 8 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 60 SSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 4 9 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 1 4 6018 6018 218 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]