Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 WSW 8 10 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 W 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 WSW 6 10 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 6 10 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 6 10 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SSW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SSW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SSW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 SSW 10 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 47 SSW 10 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 48 SSW 10 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 47 47 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 46 46 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 12 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 S 11 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 S 11 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 S 11 17 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SW 18 26 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 SW 18 26 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 SW 18 26 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 37 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 36 SSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 18 25 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 33 33 W 20 28 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 W 20 28 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 W 20 28 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 W 19 27 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 W 19 27 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 W 19 27 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 W 16 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 W 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 W 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 W 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 W 13 19 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 W 13 19 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 W 13 19 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 30 W 14 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 W 14 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 29 29 W 14 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 29 29 W 21 29 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 29 29 W 21 29 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 28 28 W 21 29 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 28 28 WNW 24 34 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 WNW 24 34 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 WNW 24 34 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 WNW 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 WNW 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 WNW 14 20 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 NW 14 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 NW 14 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 NW 14 23 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 NNW 13 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 NNW 13 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 13 21 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 12 18 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 N 10 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 N 10 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 28 28 N 10 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 31 NNE 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 31 32 NNE 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 32 33 NNE 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 33 34 N 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 33 34 N 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 32 32 N 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 8 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 N 8 11 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 35 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 36 36 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 34 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 32 32 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 31 31 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 31 31 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 NW 9 12 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 38 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 39 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 39 39 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 38 38 WNW 9 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 NW 9 13 6280 6280 480 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 NNW 10 14 6280 6280 480 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]