Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SW 3 5 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SW 3 5 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 SW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 SW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 SW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 SSW 4 9 6244 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 SSW 4 9 10101 6245 445 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 77 81 SSW 4 9 12178 10068 4268 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 78 84 SSW 11 19 14718 12119 6319 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 80 87 SSW 11 19 15486 14687 8887 White 12
1 PM Wed 80 88 SSW 11 19 15695 14802 9002 White 13
2 PM Wed 80 88 SSW 16 23 15695 14802 9002 White 13
3 PM Wed 80 87 SSW 16 23 15486 14687 8887 White 12
4 PM Wed 80 85 SSW 16 23 15065 14030 8230 White 10
5 PM Wed 78 81 SW 14 21 12178 10068 4268 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 78 80 SW 14 21 11854 7490 1690 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 14 21 6244 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 9 14 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 9 14 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 9 14 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 SW 2 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 SW 2 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 2 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 WSW 2 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 WSW 2 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 77 WSW 2 4 7512 5800 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 74 80 SSW 8 14 11854 7490 1690 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 75 82 SSW 8 14 14204 10575 4775 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 76 84 SSW 8 14 14718 12119 6319 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 76 84 SSW 11 19 14718 12119 6319 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 77 84 SSW 11 19 14718 12119 6319 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 77 82 SSW 11 19 14204 10575 4775 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 76 79 WSW 11 18 10785 6881 1081 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 74 76 WSW 11 18 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 11 18 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 WNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NNW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NNW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NNW 3 4 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 72 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 76 S 9 13 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 71 78 S 9 13 10101 6245 445 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 72 80 S 9 13 11854 7490 1690 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 72 80 SSW 10 17 11854 7490 1690 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 72 79 SSW 10 17 10785 6881 1081 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 72 77 SSW 10 17 7512 5800 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 71 74 SW 11 16 5559 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 70 SW 11 16 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 66 SW 11 16 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 10 17 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 10 17 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 10 17 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 NW 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NW 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 NW 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 N 4 6 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 4 6 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 4 6 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 5 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 5 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 5 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 58 E 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 E 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 E 5 10 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 69 S 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 71 S 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 73 S 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 73 SSW 9 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 73 SSW 9 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 71 SSW 9 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 68 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 66 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 SW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 67 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 71 SSW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 73 SSW 8 12 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 75 SSW 8 12 6244 5800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 76 SSW 8 12 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 69 76 SSW 8 12 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 69 74 SSW 8 12 5559 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 72 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 70 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 9 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NNW 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 65 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 69 E 5 8 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 72 S 8 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 67 74 S 8 13 5559 5800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 68 76 S 8 13 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 69 77 S 8 13 7512 5800 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 69 76 S 8 13 6892 5800 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 69 74 S 8 13 5559 5800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 71 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 69 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 10 13 5102 5800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]