Detailed Predictions for: Hull Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.5108, -122.9397, 5800
LZ Altitude (f): 1800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 WNW 11 12 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 11 12 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 11 11 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 11 11 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 11 11 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 5 6 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 5 6 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 5 6 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 5 6 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 WNW 5 6 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 5 6 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 5 6 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 39 WNW 5 6 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 6 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 39 NW 5 6 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 39 NW 5 6 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 6 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 6 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 6 6572 6143 343 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 6 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 8 10 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 8 10 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 8 10 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 9 11 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NNW 9 11 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 11 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NNW 8 10 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 10 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NNW 8 10 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 10 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 8 10 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NNW 8 10 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 9 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 N 6 9 7290 6571 771 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 47 49 N 6 9 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 50 53 NNW 6 9 10049 9204 3404 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 53 57 NNW 6 9 11052 10273 4473 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 54 58 NNW 6 9 11523 10521 4721 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 55 59 NNW 6 9 11922 10768 4968 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 56 59 NNW 6 9 11922 10768 4968 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 56 58 NNW 6 9 11523 10521 4721 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 55 56 NNW 9 11 10805 10016 4216 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 9 11 10306 9476 3676 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 9 11 9778 8930 3130 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 8 10 9505 8655 2855 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 8 10 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 8 10 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 9 11 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NNW 9 11 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 9 11 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 10 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 10 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 10 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 11 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 11 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 11 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 11 14 8677 7828 2028 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 51 52 N 11 14 9778 8930 3130 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 55 57 N 11 14 11052 10273 4473 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 59 63 NNW 9 12 13008 12249 6449 White 22
12 Noon Mon 60 65 NNW 9 12 13428 13259 7459 White 24
1 PM Mon 61 66 NNW 9 12 13638 13638 7838 White 25
2 PM Mon 61 66 W 6 13 13638 13638 7838 White 25
3 PM Mon 61 65 W 6 13 13428 13259 7459 White 24
4 PM Mon 61 64 W 6 13 13218 12761 6961 White 23
5 PM Mon 60 61 W 9 14 12585 11302 5502 White 20
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 9 14 11922 10768 4968 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 14 11052 10273 4473 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 5 9 10306 9476 3676 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 5 9 9778 8930 3130 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 50 50 NW 5 9 9230 8378 2578 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 9 11 8677 7828 2028 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 9 11 8677 7828 2028 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 11 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 13 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 13 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 11 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 11 13 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 11 13 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 12 16 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 12 16 9778 8930 3130 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 56 58 N 12 16 11523 10521 4721 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 59 61 S 11 16 12585 11302 5502 White 20
12 Noon Tue 60 63 S 11 16 13008 12249 6449 White 22
1 PM Tue 61 65 S 11 16 13428 13259 7459 White 24
2 PM Tue 61 65 SSW 13 19 13428 13259 7459 White 24
3 PM Tue 61 64 SSW 13 19 13218 12761 6961 White 23
4 PM Tue 60 62 SSW 13 19 12797 11878 6078 White 21
5 PM Tue 59 60 W 12 20 12354 11014 5214 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 20 11523 10521 4721 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 20 10805 10016 4216 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 12 20 10306 9476 3676 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 12 20 9778 8930 3130 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 51 51 W 12 20 9505 8655 2855 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 9 11 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NNW 9 11 8677 7828 2028 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 47 47 NNW 9 11 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 47 47 NNW 9 11 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 9 11 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 9 11 7842 7006 1206 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 12 17 7842 7006 1206 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 12 17 7842 7006 1206 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 45 45 WNW 12 17 7842 7006 1206 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 12 17 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 12 17 8397 7556 1756 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 48 49 WNW 12 17 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 49 50 SW 23 34 9230 8378 2578 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 49 50 SW 23 34 9230 8378 2578 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 49 50 SW 23 34 9230 8378 2578 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 48 49 SW 23 34 8954 8100 2300 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 47 48 SW 23 34 8677 7828 2028 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 45 46 SW 23 34 8116 7281 1481 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 26 35 7290 6571 771 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 26 35 7012 6428 628 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 26 35 6572 6143 343 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 26 35 6429 6132 332 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 26 35 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 26 35 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 21 32 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 WSW 21 32 6285 6132 332 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 21 32 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 21 32 6142 6132 332 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 21 32 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 21 32 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 26 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 34 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 34 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 35 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 35 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 35 36 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 35 W 20 28 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 W 23 31 6132 6132 332 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]