Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.712452, -120.2343, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 90 90 N 0 8 2389 2000 0 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 89 89 N 1 6 2266 2000 0 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 87 87 NNE 2 5 1812 2000 0 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 86 86 NE 2 4 1718 2000 0 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 85 85 NE 2 4 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 84 84 NE 2 3 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 84 84 NE 2 4 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 83 83 NE 2 4 1599 2000 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 85 86 N 2 5 1718 2000 0 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 89 91 WSW 2 6 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 94 98 W 4 8 4133 3705 1705 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 97 101 W 5 10 4866 4111 2111 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 100 105 W 5 12 7092 5194 3194 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 101 107 W 6 12 10100 6417 4417 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 101 107 W 8 14 10100 6417 4417 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 103 108 W 8 14 10610 6988 4988 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 101 104 W 8 16 6515 4830 2830 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 101 103 WNW 8 16 5908 4509 2509 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 101 102 WNW 8 14 5275 4322 2322 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 100 100 WNW 6 14 4543 3934 1934 Blue 27
8 PM Wed 97 97 NW 6 13 3944 3524 1524 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 93 93 NNW 5 12 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 91 91 NNW 5 11 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 89 89 N 3 8 2266 2000 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 N 2 6 1812 2000 0 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 87 87 N 2 5 1812 2000 0 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 85 85 N 2 4 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 84 84 N 1 3 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 83 83 NNE 1 3 1599 2000 0 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 83 83 E 1 3 1599 2000 0 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 82 82 E 2 3 1586 2000 0 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 82 82 E 2 3 1586 2000 0 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 84 85 SSW 2 4 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 88 90 SW 2 5 2389 2000 0 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 92 96 SW 4 9 3829 2832 832 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 94 100 WSW 6 12 4543 3934 1934 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 97 104 WSW 6 12 6515 4830 2830 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 99 107 WSW 6 12 10100 6417 4417 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 99 107 W 8 16 10100 6417 4417 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 100 107 W 8 16 10100 6417 4417 Blue 34
4 PM Thu 100 105 W 8 16 7092 5194 3194 Blue 32
5 PM Thu 99 102 W 8 17 5275 4322 2322 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 98 99 W 8 17 4339 3820 1820 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 96 96 W 8 17 3829 2832 832 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 94 94 NW 6 13 3547 2508 508 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 91 91 NW 6 13 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 89 89 NW 6 13 2266 2000 0 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 86 86 N 3 6 1718 2000 0 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 N 3 6 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 82 82 N 3 6 1586 2000 0 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 80 80 NNE 2 4 1556 2000 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 79 79 NNE 2 4 1529 2000 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 2 4 1502 2000 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 2 3 1502 2000 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 2 3 1502 2000 0 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 2 3 1502 2000 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 80 81 NW 2 6 1573 2000 0 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 83 85 NW 2 6 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 87 91 NW 2 6 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 91 97 WSW 5 12 3944 3524 1524 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 93 101 WSW 5 12 4866 4111 2111 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 94 102 WSW 5 12 5275 4322 2322 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 94 102 WSW 8 16 5275 4322 2322 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 95 102 WSW 8 16 5275 4322 2322 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 95 100 WSW 8 16 4543 3934 1934 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 94 97 WSW 9 18 3944 3524 1524 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 91 92 WSW 9 18 2637 2261 261 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 88 88 WSW 9 18 2034 2000 0 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 84 84 WNW 8 14 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 81 81 WNW 8 14 1573 2000 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 8 14 1502 2000 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 76 76 NNW 2 6 1449 2000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 NNW 2 6 1321 2000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 72 72 NNW 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 NNE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 NNE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 NE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 NE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NE 1 3 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 W 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 W 2 4 1321 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 75 79 W 2 4 1529 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 79 85 WSW 6 12 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 82 90 WSW 6 12 2389 2000 0 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 84 92 WSW 6 12 2637 2261 261 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 85 93 WSW 6 14 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 86 93 WSW 6 14 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 86 91 WSW 6 14 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 86 89 W 5 14 2266 2000 0 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 85 86 W 5 14 1718 2000 0 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 5 14 1599 2000 0 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 81 81 W 5 14 1573 2000 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 14 1529 2000 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 76 76 W 5 14 1449 2000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 74 74 N 2 6 1321 2000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 N 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 N 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 N 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 2 6 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 NW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 NW 2 4 1151 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 79 NW 2 4 1529 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 79 85 WSW 6 12 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 82 90 WSW 6 12 2389 2000 0 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 84 92 WSW 6 12 2637 2261 261 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 85 93 WSW 6 12 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 87 94 WSW 6 12 3547 2508 508 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 88 93 WSW 6 12 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 88 91 W 4 13 2513 2027 27 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 87 88 W 4 13 2034 2000 0 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 4 13 1718 2000 0 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 84 84 W 4 13 1611 2000 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 4 13 1573 2000 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 79 79 W 4 13 1529 2000 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 76 76 NNE 2 5 1449 2000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 NNE 2 5 1321 2000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 72 72 NNE 2 5 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 2 5 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NNE 2 5 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 NNE 2 5 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 NNW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 NNW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 NNW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 NNW 2 4 1070 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 77 NNW 2 4 1476 2000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 79 83 NNW 2 4 1599 2000 0 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 83 89 WSW 6 13 2266 2000 0 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 85 93 WSW 6 13 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 87 95 WSW 6 13 3714 2631 631 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 88 96 WSW 6 13 3829 2832 832 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 89 96 WSW 6 13 3829 2832 832 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 90 95 WSW 6 13 3714 2631 631 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 90 93 W 5 13 2874 2385 385 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 89 90 W 5 13 2389 2000 0 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 5 13 1812 2000 0 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 85 85 W 5 13 1624 2000 0 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 82 82 W 5 13 1586 2000 0 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 80 80 W 5 13 1556 2000 0 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]