Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.712452, -120.2343, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 W 2 6 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 61 63 W 4 9 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 63 65 W 5 11 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 64 66 W 5 13 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 64 66 W 6 16 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 66 67 WNW 8 16 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 65 65 WNW 8 16 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 64 64 NW 8 16 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 63 63 NW 5 12 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 60 60 NNW 4 9 1585 2000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 8 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 3 6 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 6 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 3 6 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 3 6 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 4 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SSE 2 5 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 61 63 SW 3 8 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 63 65 SW 3 8 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 64 67 SW 3 8 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 65 67 WSW 4 9 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 65 67 WSW 4 9 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 65 66 WSW 4 9 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 3 6 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 3 6 1728 2000 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 3 6 1585 2000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 58 58 ENE 2 4 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 56 56 ENE 2 4 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 ENE 2 4 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 4 8 993 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 ENE 4 8 993 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 ENE 4 8 993 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 6 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 3 5 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 ENE 3 5 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 61 63 SW 2 4 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 63 66 SW 2 4 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 64 67 SW 2 4 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 64 67 WSW 4 9 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 65 67 WSW 4 9 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 65 66 WSW 4 9 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 64 64 W 3 6 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 6 1728 2000 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 3 6 1585 2000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 58 58 NE 2 2 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 57 57 NE 2 2 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 NE 2 2 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 ENE 2 3 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 ENE 2 4 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 62 64 SW 1 4 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 64 67 SW 1 4 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 65 68 SW 1 4 2870 2035 35 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 66 69 WSW 4 8 3339 2139 139 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 67 69 WSW 4 8 3339 2139 139 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 67 68 WSW 4 8 2870 2035 35 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 6 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 3 6 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 3 6 1645 2000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 59 59 NE 2 3 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 58 58 NE 2 3 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 57 57 NE 2 3 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 2 3 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NE 2 3 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 2 3 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 ENE 2 4 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 62 63 WSW 2 4 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 64 66 WSW 2 4 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 65 67 WSW 2 4 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 65 66 W 4 9 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 67 W 4 9 2337 2000 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 66 W 4 9 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 4 9 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 4 9 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 4 9 1645 2000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 2 4 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 58 58 NNE 2 4 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 57 57 NNE 2 4 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 NNE 2 3 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 2 3 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NNE 2 3 1120 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 1 3 1035 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NE 1 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 1 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 3 993 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 2 4 993 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NE 2 4 1280 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 62 WSW 2 5 1728 2000 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 62 64 WSW 2 5 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 63 65 WSW 2 5 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 64 66 W 4 10 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 65 66 W 4 10 2142 2000 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 65 65 W 4 10 2038 2000 0 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 64 64 W 3 8 1935 2000 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 8 1831 2000 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 8 1645 2000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 2 3 1585 2000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 59 59 NE 2 3 1524 2000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 2 3 1464 2000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 57 57 ENE 2 3 1280 2000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]