Detailed Predictions for: Lake McClure
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.712452, -120.2343, 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NNE 1 2 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 2 4 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 2 4 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 2 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 ESE 2 3 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 S 3 5 1660 2000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 65 SSW 5 6 2632 2000 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 66 68 SW 5 9 2950 2617 617 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 66 68 SW 5 10 2950 2617 617 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 66 67 SW 5 9 2857 2317 317 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 67 67 SW 5 9 2857 2317 317 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 65 65 SW 3 5 2632 2000 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 63 63 NE 2 3 2143 2000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 62 62 ENE 2 2 1963 2000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 59 59 E 2 3 1544 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 ENE 2 3 1544 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 ENE 2 3 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 2 4 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 SE 6 10 1544 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 62 SSW 10 14 1963 2000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 10 14 2324 2000 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 65 65 SSW 10 14 2632 2000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 64 64 SW 9 13 2324 2000 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 63 63 SW 9 13 2143 2000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 13 1963 2000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 60 60 SE 6 10 1660 2000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 59 59 SE 6 10 1544 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 SE 6 10 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 NE 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NNE 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 4 5 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 N 5 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 52 NW 9 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 54 NW 9 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 57 NW 9 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 WNW 11 17 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 11 17 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 11 17 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 13 20 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 WNW 13 20 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 WNW 13 20 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 N 6 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 N 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 N 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 5 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 WNW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 WNW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 54 WNW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 55 W 10 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 54 W 10 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 W 10 13 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 12 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 4 8 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 SW 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 55 SW 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 58 SW 5 10 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 58 SW 5 10 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 SW 5 10 1221 2000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 SW 5 10 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 5 9 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 NE 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 55 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 56 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 57 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 6 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 11 883 2000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 E 4 6 883 2000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]