Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 31 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 30 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 30 NNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 29 NNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 28 NNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 29 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 29 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 31 NNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 35 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 38 NNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 39 NW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 40 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 40 NW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 39 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 37 WNW 12 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 WNW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 WNW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 NW 12 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 33 NW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 NNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 35 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 39 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 42 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 44 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 45 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 44 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 42 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 40 NW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 NW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 NW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 36 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 N 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 NE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 38 NE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 42 NE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 48 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 67 52 NNE 5 8 163 60 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 70 56 NNE 5 8 1503 315 255 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 71 56 NW 5 10 1503 315 255 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 70 54 NW 5 10 526 87 27 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 68 51 NW 5 10 87 60 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 66 47 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 44 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 41 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 40 NE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 39 NE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 39 NE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 39 ENE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 38 ENE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 38 ENE 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 38 ENE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 37 ENE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 ENE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 E 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 E 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 43 E 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 47 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 48 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 50 NW 4 6 41 60 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 66 49 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 48 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 46 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 44 W 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 W 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 W 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 W 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 W 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 W 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 33 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 33 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 WSW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 WSW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 35 WSW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 39 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 42 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 44 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 45 WSW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 44 WSW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 42 WSW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 38 WSW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 37 WSW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 WSW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 WSW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 WSW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 WSW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 W 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 W 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 W 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 31 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 34 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 37 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 39 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 40 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 42 WNW 13 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 40 WNW 13 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 38 WNW 13 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 37 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 NW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 NW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 NW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]