Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 32 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 29 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 30 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 35 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 45 NW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 49 NW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 51 NW 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 52 NW 14 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 50 NW 14 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 48 NW 14 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 45 NW 17 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 NW 17 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 39 NW 17 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 N 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 31 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 43 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 49 N 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 54 N 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 72 55 N 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 73 56 NW 8 439 400 340 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 54 NW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 71 52 NW 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 69 49 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 45 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 W 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 S 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 S 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 38 S 1 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 34 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 33 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 47 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 52 N 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 58 N 5 824 400 340 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 77 61 N 5 1281 822 762 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 77 59 NW 6 1025 439 379 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 76 58 NW 6 824 400 340 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 76 57 NW 6 623 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 53 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 48 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 45 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 NE 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 NE 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 NE 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 NE 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 46 NE 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 53 N 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 58 N 10 824 400 340 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 76 60 N 10 1193 622 562 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 76 60 NW 15 1193 622 562 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 75 58 NW 15 824 400 340 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 74 55 NW 15 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 52 NW 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 47 NW 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 NW 10 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 N 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 N 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 N 9 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 E 6 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 E 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 40 E 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 47 E 8 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 55 NE 7 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 77 61 NE 7 1281 822 762 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 79 63 NE 7 1446 1191 1131 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 79 63 SW 7 1446 1191 1131 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 78 61 SW 7 1281 822 762 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 78 59 SW 7 1025 439 379 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 75 55 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 50 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 46 SW 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 44 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 42 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 41 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 40 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 40 NE 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 41 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 48 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 55 E 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 61 E 5 1281 822 762 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 79 63 E 5 1446 1191 1131 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 79 63 W 6 1446 1191 1131 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 78 61 W 6 1281 822 762 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 77 58 W 6 824 400 340 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 75 55 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 50 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 46 W 5 400 400 340 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 44 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 NW 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 39 N 2 400 400 340 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 400 400 340 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 N 3 400 400 340 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]