Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 44 24 W 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 23 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 24 E 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 22 SE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 27 SE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 33 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 38 NE 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 42 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 43 NE 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 44 N 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 44 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 43 N 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 41 N 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 37 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 E 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 30 E 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 E 9 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 27 E 9 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 27 E 9 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 25 E 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 25 E 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 24 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 23 NE 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 23 S 1 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 22 S 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 22 SW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 22 S 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 22 S 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 27 S 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 SE 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 39 NE 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 44 NE 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 46 NE 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 45 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 44 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 42 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 41 W 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 W 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 W 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 30 SE 1 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 28 SE 1 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 27 SE 1 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 27 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 26 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 25 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 24 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 24 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 23 E 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 22 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 21 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 21 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 23 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 32 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 39 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 43 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 45 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 46 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 44 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 42 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 40 W 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 W 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 34 W 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 31 E 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 29 E 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 28 E 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 27 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 26 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 25 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 25 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 24 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 24 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 23 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 22 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 21 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 22 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 E 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 43 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 45 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 44 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 44 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 42 NW 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 40 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 NW 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 31 NW 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 29 NW 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 28 NW 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 28 N 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 27 N 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 26 N 2 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 25 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 24 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 22 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 22 N 3 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 23 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 27 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 31 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 36 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 39 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 42 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 42 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 42 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 40 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 39 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 37 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 34 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 31 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 30 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 30 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 29 N 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 28 N 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 28 N 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 27 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 26 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 26 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 25 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 24 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 23 NE 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 24 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 27 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 32 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 38 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 42 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 43 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 44 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 43 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 42 N 8 20 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 40 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 38 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 NW 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 32 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 30 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 29 N 6 20 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 28 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 28 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 27 NE 5 20 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 27 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 26 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 26 NE 7 20 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]