Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 NE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 30 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 31 NE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 ENE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 31 NE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 ENE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 36 NE 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 40 NE 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 45 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 46 NNW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 46 NNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 45 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 42 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 41 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 40 W 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 WSW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 36 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 WSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 SSW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 33 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 33 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 33 SW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 33 SW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 SW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 37 SW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 38 SSW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 40 SSW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 40 SSW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 40 SSW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 39 SSW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 38 WSW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 38 WSW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 37 WSW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 NNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 32 NNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 NNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 32 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 34 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 35 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 37 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 38 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 39 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 39 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 38 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 NW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 36 NW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 35 NW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 32 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 31 NNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 31 N 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 30 N 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 N 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 N 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 27 N 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 26 N 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 26 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 30 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 33 NNE 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 36 NNE 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 38 NNE 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 38 N 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 37 N 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 36 N 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 35 NNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 34 NNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 33 NNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 32 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 31 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 30 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 29 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 28 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 28 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 27 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 26 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 26 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 26 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 26 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 27 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 28 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 31 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 34 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 37 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 40 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 40 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 41 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 39 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 38 NNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 NNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 NNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 N 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 N 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 N 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 31 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 30 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 NE 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 35 NE 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 38 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 40 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 42 NNE 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 42 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 41 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 40 N 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 39 NNW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 NNW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 37 NNW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 N 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 N 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]