Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 W 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 W 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 W 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 31 WSW 3 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 S 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 SE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 36 N 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 39 NNW 3 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 41 NW 8 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 41 NW 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 42 NW 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 43 NW 9 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 41 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 39 W 5 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 WSW 6 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 36 W 9 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 WSW 6 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 WSW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 WSW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 SSW 4 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 S 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 S 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 33 S 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 33 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 S 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 SSE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 ESE 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 E 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 39 NE 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 41 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 42 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 44 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 44 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 43 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 42 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 39 WNW 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 38 WNW 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 SW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 SW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 SW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 34 E 0 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 33 E 0 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 E 0 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 32 S 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 S 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 S 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 31 S 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 30 S 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 30 S 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 ESE 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 33 ESE 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 37 ESE 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 41 NW 3 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 44 NW 3 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 45 NW 3 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 46 W 5 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 44 W 5 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 43 W 5 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 40 SW 2 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 SW 2 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 SW 2 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 SSE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 35 SSE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 SSE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 34 SE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 SE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 32 SE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 32 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 31 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 31 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 30 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 30 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 SE 9 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 30 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 35 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 39 NNE 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 41 NNE 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 43 NNE 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 43 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 42 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 41 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 39 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 32 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 31 NE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 31 NE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 30 NE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 NNE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 34 NNE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 37 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 40 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 41 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 41 NW 6 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 40 NW 6 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 38 NW 6 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 38 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 35 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 35 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 32 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 31 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 NNE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 NNE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 34 NNE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 36 N 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 37 N 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 40 N 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 40 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 39 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 38 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 37 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 37 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 NW 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 NNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]