Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 63 43 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 41 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 41 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 41 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 40 WNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 40 WNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 40 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 40 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 40 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 41 WNW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 41 WNW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 45 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 47 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 48 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 48 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 46 W 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 45 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 44 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 42 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 41 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 40 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 40 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 40 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 W 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 40 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 39 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 39 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 40 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 43 WNW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 46 WNW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 46 WNW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 48 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 48 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 45 WNW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 WNW 14 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 WNW 14 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 WNW 14 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 NW 14 24 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 NW 14 24 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 NW 14 24 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 38 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 38 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 37 NNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 NNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 38 NNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 40 NNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 43 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 46 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 47 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 48 WNW 17 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 48 WNW 17 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 46 WNW 17 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 43 WNW 17 28 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 17 28 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 WNW 17 28 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 40 NW 14 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 NW 14 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 38 NW 14 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 37 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 37 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 40 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 43 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 44 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 46 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 48 WNW 12 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 47 WNW 12 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 46 WNW 12 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 46 WNW 12 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 43 WNW 12 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 WNW 12 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 11 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 11 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 11 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 39 NW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 NW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 NW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 38 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 NW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 37 NW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 37 NW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 40 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 42 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 44 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 46 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 47 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 46 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 46 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 45 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 43 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 42 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 37 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 NW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 NW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 NW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 37 NW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 38 NW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 40 NW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 42 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 45 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 46 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 47 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 47 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 45 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 44 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 41 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]