Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 E 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 ENE 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 37 NNE 1 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 37 E 0 0 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 37 SSE 1 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 SSE 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 SSW 1 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 SW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 WSW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 39 WSW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 40 WSW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 42 WSW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 46 WSW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 48 WSW 12 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 49 WSW 13 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 49 WSW 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 46 WSW 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 44 WSW 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 42 WSW 12 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 WSW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 WSW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 WSW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 SW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 SW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 SW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 37 WSW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 37 WSW 3 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 SW 3 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 SSW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 SSW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 37 SW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 W 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 37 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 38 WNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 40 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 42 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 43 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 49 W 10 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 48 W 10 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 46 W 10 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 43 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 41 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 SW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 SW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 SW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 40 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 42 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 44 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 46 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 48 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 47 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 45 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 43 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 41 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 39 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 W 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 W 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 37 W 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 37 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 36 WNW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 WNW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 WNW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 39 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 41 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 44 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 47 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 48 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 51 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 49 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 46 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 43 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 41 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 39 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 39 WNW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 39 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 42 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 45 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 47 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 48 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 50 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 49 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 47 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 44 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 43 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 40 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 39 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 38 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 37 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 37 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 37 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 38 NNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 40 NNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 42 NNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 46 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 47 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 48 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 49 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 50 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 48 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 45 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 43 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 41 WNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]