Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 WSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 S 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 39 SSE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 39 SSE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 39 S 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 41 WNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 44 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 48 W 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 51 W 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 53 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 52 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 50 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 47 W 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 46 W 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 44 W 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 42 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 38 WNW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 38 WNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 38 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 40 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 44 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 46 WNW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 48 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 48 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 48 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 46 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 43 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 41 WNW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 37 WNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 WNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 WNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 WNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 35 WNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 37 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 39 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 41 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 43 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 45 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 45 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 44 WNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 42 W 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 39 W 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 38 W 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 37 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 38 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 40 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 42 WNW 10 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 44 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 43 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 42 WNW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 40 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 38 WNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 WNW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 WNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 WNW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 35 NW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 35 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 WNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 35 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 35 WNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 35 WNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 36 WNW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 36 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 38 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 40 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 42 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 44 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 43 WNW 9 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 42 W 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 41 W 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 38 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 WNW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 36 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 WNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 WNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 WNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 35 NW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 NW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 NW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 38 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 39 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 41 WNW 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 43 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 45 WNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 44 WNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 43 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 42 WNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 37 WNW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 WNW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]