Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 S 11 18 1622 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 S 12 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 S 13 21 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 S 13 20 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 S 12 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 S 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 S 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 S 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 S 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 69 S 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 75 S 10 14 1667 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 81 SSW 10 16 1910 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 78 86 SSW 10 14 2630 2208 8 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 80 89 SW 9 13 3019 2626 426 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 82 90 WSW 10 14 3194 2756 556 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 81 88 WSW 10 14 2889 2497 297 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 81 86 WSW 9 13 2630 2208 8 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 79 82 W 8 12 2060 2200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 77 78 WSW 8 11 1790 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 6 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 8 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SSW 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 9 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 S 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 S 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 S 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 S 10 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 S 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 S 11 17 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 61 S 11 16 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 S 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 71 S 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 75 SW 6 11 1667 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 80 SW 6 11 1845 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 74 82 SW 6 11 2060 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 75 83 W 10 14 2211 2200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 76 83 W 10 14 2211 2200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 75 80 W 10 14 1845 2200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 73 76 W 9 14 1712 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 72 W 9 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 4 5 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 SW 4 5 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 SW 4 5 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 SW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SW 4 6 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 SSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 61 SSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 65 SSW 6 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 70 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 74 WSW 6 10 1622 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 77 WSW 6 10 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 79 WSW 8 12 1818 2200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 71 78 WSW 8 12 1790 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 70 75 WSW 8 12 1667 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 71 SSW 12 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 68 SSW 12 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 12 19 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 11 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 11 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 11 18 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SSW 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 9 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 9 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 9 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 8 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 8 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 8 12 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 56 SSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 58 SSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 63 SSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 68 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 73 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 75 WSW 6 10 1667 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 77 W 9 13 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 76 W 9 13 1712 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 73 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 70 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 67 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 14 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 69 W 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 74 W 5 9 1622 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 79 W 5 9 1818 2200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 72 80 W 8 12 1845 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 73 80 W 8 12 1845 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 73 78 W 8 12 1790 2200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 72 75 W 9 13 1667 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 72 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 13 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 10 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 5 9 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 WSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 65 WSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 WSW 5 8 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 78 W 5 8 1790 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 75 83 W 5 8 2211 2200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 78 87 W 5 8 2760 2358 158 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 80 88 W 8 12 2889 2497 297 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 80 87 W 8 12 2760 2358 158 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 80 85 W 8 12 2500 2200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 78 81 WNW 9 13 1910 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 76 78 WNW 9 13 1790 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 9 13 1622 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 11 1621 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]