Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NW 0 1 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NNW 1 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 1 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 1 2 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 1 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 1 2 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 56 NNE 1 2 1998 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 58 58 N 2 2 2232 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 3 2792 2230 30 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 3 2924 2448 248 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 64 64 NNW 4 5 3476 2788 588 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 65 65 NNW 3 4 3769 2920 720 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 3 4 3476 2788 588 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 2 5 2924 2448 248 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 2 4 2115 2200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 55 55 NE 1 2 1852 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 ENE 1 2 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 ENE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 ENE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 1 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 ENE 1 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 4 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 3 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 3 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 NNE 2 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 54 NNE 3 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 56 NNE 3 4 1998 2200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 57 59 N 4 5 2452 2200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 57 58 N 4 5 2232 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 57 57 N 5 5 2115 2200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 57 57 NNE 5 6 2115 2200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 55 55 NNE 4 6 1852 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 4 8 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 NNE 4 8 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NNE 3 8 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 3 8 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 3 8 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NE 3 7 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NE 3 7 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 3 7 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NE 3 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 48 NE 2 3 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 NE 2 2 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 57 NNE 1 2 2115 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 60 61 N 2 2 2792 2230 30 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 61 62 N 2 2 2924 2448 248 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 2 3 2792 2230 30 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 60 60 NNE 2 3 2634 2200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 4 2115 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 NE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 ENE 2 6 1758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 2 5 1758 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]