Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 SSW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 SSW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 SSW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 SSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 SSW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 S 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 SSW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 S 1 2 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 SSW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 83 83 WSW 2 3 1838 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 90 W 3 4 3639 2549 349 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 89 95 W 5 6 4409 3864 1664 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 91 98 W 6 7 5552 4395 2195 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 92 100 W 7 8 6785 4970 2770 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 93 101 WNW 7 9 7361 5482 3282 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 92 99 WNW 8 10 6183 4647 2447 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 90 95 WNW 8 10 4409 3864 1664 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 88 91 WNW 8 9 3755 2666 466 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 85 86 WNW 6 8 2427 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 81 81 WNW 6 9 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 77 77 WNW 4 8 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 SW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 SW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 SSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SSW 2 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 SSW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 SSW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 S 2 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 S 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 SW 2 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 83 WSW 3 3 1838 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 88 W 4 5 2668 2300 100 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 86 92 W 5 6 3871 3258 1058 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 88 96 W 6 7 4675 3980 1780 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 90 98 W 7 8 5552 4395 2195 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 90 98 WNW 8 9 5552 4395 2195 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 90 97 WNW 9 10 5001 4207 2007 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 89 94 WNW 8 10 4224 3749 1549 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 87 90 WNW 8 9 3639 2549 349 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 84 85 WNW 7 9 2302 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 78 78 WNW 6 9 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 4 9 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 2 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 SW 1 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 SW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 SSW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 SW 2 4 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 WSW 3 3 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 WSW 4 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 79 W 5 5 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 84 W 6 7 2110 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 88 W 7 8 2668 2300 100 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 80 88 W 9 10 2668 2300 100 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 79 87 WNW 10 11 2552 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 77 84 WNW 11 13 2110 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 75 80 WNW 10 11 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 75 WNW 9 10 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 69 W 8 10 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 10 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 11 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 4 9 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 6 1837 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 4 7 1837 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]