Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SW 6 10 1856 2200 0 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 71 71 SW 6 10 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 6 9 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 9 1822 2200 0 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 6 9 1805 2200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 9 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 9 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 5 9 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 62 62 SW 5 10 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 64 65 SW 5 10 1797 2200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 67 69 WSW 5 11 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 68 72 SW 6 12 1856 2200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 71 77 W 8 13 2015 2200 0 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 73 79 W 8 16 2221 2200 0 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 74 80 W 9 16 2358 2200 0 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 75 80 W 9 17 2358 2200 0 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 73 76 W 9 17 1958 2200 0 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 72 74 W 8 17 1876 2200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 6 14 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 12 1814 2200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 11 1797 2200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 6 11 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 6 11 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 6 11 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 8 11 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 8 11 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 8 11 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 61 61 SW 8 11 1763 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SW 8 11 1740 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 8 13 1740 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 SW 8 13 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 13 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 9 16 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 WSW 9 16 1740 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 WSW 9 16 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 62 65 W 12 20 1797 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 64 68 W 12 20 1822 2200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 64 69 W 12 20 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 65 71 W 13 23 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 71 W 13 23 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 13 23 1814 2200 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 62 63 W 14 24 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 14 24 1763 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 24 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 25 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 25 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 25 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 26 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 W 12 26 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 12 26 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 10 20 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 10 20 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 10 20 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 13 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 13 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 13 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 W 5 12 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 W 5 12 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 57 W 5 12 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 62 WNW 8 17 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 61 67 WNW 8 17 1814 2200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 64 70 WNW 8 17 1839 2200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 66 72 WNW 9 18 1856 2200 0 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 66 71 WNW 9 18 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 66 69 WNW 9 18 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 65 67 WNW 11 20 1814 2200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 11 20 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 11 20 1751 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 10 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 10 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 4 6 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 WSW 4 6 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 4 6 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 2 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 2 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 2 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 2 4 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 SSW 2 4 1740 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 SSW 2 4 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 69 W 4 9 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 73 W 4 9 1866 2200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 70 76 W 4 9 1958 2200 0 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 71 77 WNW 9 16 2015 2200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 72 77 WNW 9 16 2015 2200 0 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 71 74 WNW 9 16 1876 2200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 69 71 WNW 9 17 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 9 17 1805 2200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 62 62 WNW 9 17 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 4 10 1751 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 4 10 1740 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 4 10 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 5 10 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 WSW 5 10 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 5 10 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 5 11 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 SSW 5 11 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 SSW 5 11 1772 2200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 66 WSW 4 13 1805 2200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 66 70 WSW 4 13 1839 2200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 68 73 WSW 4 13 1866 2200 0 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 68 73 W 8 16 1866 2200 0 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 69 73 W 8 16 1866 2200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 68 71 W 8 16 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 66 67 W 9 16 1814 2200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 16 1789 2200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 16 1763 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 5 11 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 11 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 11 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 5 11 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 WSW 5 11 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 5 11 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SW 4 10 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 4 9 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 8 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 SW 3 8 1706 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 SW 3 8 1751 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 65 W 3 10 1797 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 64 69 W 3 10 1831 2200 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 66 71 W 3 10 1847 2200 0 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 67 72 WNW 6 14 1856 2200 0 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 68 72 WNW 6 14 1856 2200 0 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 67 70 WNW 6 14 1839 2200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 66 68 WNW 8 16 1822 2200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 8 16 1780 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 8 16 1763 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 4 9 1728 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 4 9 1716 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 4 9 1716 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]