Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SE 4 6 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 SE 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 73 73 SSE 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 SSE 8 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 E 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 5 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 SE 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 72 SSE 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 76 SSE 6 10 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 81 S 6 10 3933 2222 22 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 81 85 S 4 6 4732 4144 1944 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 83 88 SSW 4 6 5039 4722 2522 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 84 90 SW 5 8 5228 4938 2738 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 85 90 W 8 11 5228 4938 2738 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 84 88 W 9 14 5039 4722 2522 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 84 87 WNW 9 14 4949 4614 2414 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 84 85 WNW 10 16 4732 4144 1944 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 9 13 4170 3778 1578 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 80 80 WNW 6 9 3858 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 76 76 WNW 5 8 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 4 6 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 3 4 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 SW 2 3 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 S 3 5 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 S 6 10 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 S 9 13 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 S 10 14 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 S 10 14 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 66 S 10 16 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 72 S 10 14 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 75 SW 8 12 1342 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 77 SW 8 12 1842 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 79 SW 8 12 3783 2200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 75 80 WSW 9 13 3858 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 75 79 WSW 9 13 3783 2200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 74 77 WSW 9 13 1842 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 6 10 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 6 10 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 6 10 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SSW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SSW 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 SE 1 2 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 SE 1 2 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 SE 1 2 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 2 3 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 E 2 3 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NNE 3 5 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 NNE 3 5 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 71 NNE 3 5 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 76 N 6 10 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 75 79 N 6 10 3783 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 77 82 N 6 10 4170 3778 1578 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 78 83 NW 6 9 4515 3853 1653 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 79 83 NW 6 9 4515 3853 1653 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 80 82 NW 6 9 4170 3778 1578 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 79 80 WNW 6 10 3858 2200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 78 78 WNW 6 10 2225 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 76 76 WNW 6 10 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 2 4 1342 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 2 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 2 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 S 2 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 S 2 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 S 2 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 S 4 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 S 4 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 4 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 8 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 S 8 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 8 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 N 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 N 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 N 3 4 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 78 W 3 5 2225 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 76 81 W 3 5 3933 2222 22 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 78 83 W 3 5 4515 3853 1653 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 79 84 WNW 6 9 4623 3928 1728 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 79 83 WNW 6 9 4515 3853 1653 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 79 82 WNW 6 9 4170 3778 1578 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 78 79 WNW 6 11 3783 2200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 6 11 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 11 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 72 WNW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 SW 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 73 W 5 8 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 76 W 5 8 1662 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 78 W 5 8 2225 2200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 74 79 W 9 13 3783 2200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 74 78 W 9 13 2225 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 74 77 W 9 13 1842 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 73 74 WNW 9 14 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 71 WNW 9 14 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 WNW 9 14 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 WSW 6 11 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 WSW 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 69 W 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 71 W 6 9 758 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 74 W 6 9 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 74 W 9 13 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 9 13 1019 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 71 W 9 13 758 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 70 W 9 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 8 12 758 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]