Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SW 4 4 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 4 6 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 5 9 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 5 9 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 9 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NW 5 9 1233 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 WNW 6 10 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 11 1348 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 11 1591 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 W 9 14 1591 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 W 10 17 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 WNW 12 19 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 51 53 W 12 20 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 52 53 W 12 20 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 52 53 W 12 21 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 53 54 WNW 13 21 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 52 53 WNW 13 23 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 21 2336 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 52 52 WNW 13 21 2336 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 13 19 2201 2200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 12 18 2065 2200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 10 16 2065 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 9 14 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 9 12 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 8 11 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 11 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 49 49 NW 6 10 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 5 10 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 NNW 5 9 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 5 9 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 5 9 1591 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NW 5 9 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 W 5 9 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 50 51 WNW 6 10 2201 2200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 52 54 NW 6 11 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 54 57 NNW 9 14 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 57 61 NNW 9 14 5836 3906 1706 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 58 63 NNW 9 14 6239 5380 3180 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 59 64 NW 11 19 6374 5780 3580 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 60 64 NW 11 19 6374 5780 3580 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 61 63 NW 11 19 6239 5380 3180 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 61 62 NW 12 20 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 59 59 NW 12 20 5022 3359 1159 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 12 20 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 9 12 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 9 12 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 9 12 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 4 6 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SW 4 6 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 54 54 SW 4 6 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 53 53 SSE 4 6 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 53 53 SSE 4 6 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 53 53 SSE 4 6 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 5 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 5 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 5 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 55 55 E 4 6 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 57 58 E 4 6 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 60 62 E 4 6 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 63 67 N 6 11 6857 6353 4153 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 67 72 N 6 11 8148 7327 5127 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 70 76 N 6 11 9188 8351 6151 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 72 77 N 6 12 9400 8610 6410 White 29
3 PM Mon 73 77 N 6 12 9400 8610 6410 White 29
4 PM Mon 72 75 N 6 12 8930 8091 5891 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 71 72 N 8 11 8148 7327 5127 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 69 69 N 8 11 7376 6622 4422 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 8 11 6857 6353 4153 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 65 65 N 5 9 6509 6085 3885 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 64 64 N 5 9 6374 5780 3580 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 62 62 N 5 9 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 62 62 ENE 4 6 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 ENE 4 6 5836 3906 1706 Blue 13
1 AM Tue 60 60 ENE 4 6 5430 3633 1433 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 5 5022 3359 1159 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 5 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 5 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 4 6 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 4 6 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 4 6 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 8 5022 3359 1159 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 61 62 E 5 8 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 64 66 E 5 8 6644 6219 4019 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 67 70 N 6 11 7634 6813 4613 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 69 73 N 6 11 8410 7583 5383 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 70 75 N 6 11 8930 8091 5891 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 71 75 WNW 8 14 8930 8091 5891 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 72 75 WNW 8 14 8930 8091 5891 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 72 74 WNW 8 14 8671 7838 5638 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 71 72 WNW 10 16 8148 7327 5127 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 69 69 WNW 10 16 7376 6622 4422 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 10 16 6644 6219 4019 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 10 14 6374 5780 3580 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 62 62 WNW 10 14 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 10 14 5836 3906 1706 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 9 13 5430 3633 1433 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 9 13 5022 3359 1159 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 9 13 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 9 13 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 9 13 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 9 13 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 10 14 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 10 14 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 10 14 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 11 18 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 11 18 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 57 58 SSW 11 18 3926 3082 882 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 59 62 SW 13 21 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 60 63 SW 13 21 6239 5380 3180 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 62 66 SW 13 21 6644 6219 4019 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 63 66 WSW 14 24 6644 6219 4019 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 62 65 WSW 14 24 6509 6085 3885 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 60 62 WSW 14 24 6104 4978 2778 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 17 26 5022 3359 1159 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 17 26 3651 2805 605 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 17 26 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 18 26 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 18 26 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 18 26 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 54 54 SW 18 25 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 18 25 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 18 25 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 17 25 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 17 25 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 17 25 2336 2200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 14 23 2336 2200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 14 23 2201 2200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 14 23 2201 2200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 50 50 W 16 26 2065 2200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 16 26 2065 2200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 50 51 W 16 26 2201 2200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 51 53 W 20 29 2472 2200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 52 55 W 20 29 3095 2334 134 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 53 56 W 20 29 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 53 56 W 18 29 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 53 56 W 18 29 3374 2469 269 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 52 54 W 18 29 2815 2200 0 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 51 52 W 21 32 2336 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 21 32 2065 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 21 32 1928 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 19 31 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 19 31 1792 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 19 31 1792 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]