Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 16 24 3639 3153 153 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 53 53 S 13 20 3639 3153 153 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 11 18 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 56 56 S 11 16 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 55 55 S 10 16 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 55 55 S 9 14 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 55 55 S 9 12 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 12 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 57 58 SSE 8 12 3693 3660 660 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 60 63 S 8 11 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 62 67 S 6 10 3950 3879 879 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 64 71 S 5 9 4129 3975 975 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 66 74 SSW 6 10 4393 4126 1126 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 66 75 SSW 8 12 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 67 75 SW 10 16 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 67 74 SW 12 18 4393 4126 1126 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 66 71 WSW 13 20 4129 3975 975 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 62 65 WSW 12 19 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 59 61 WSW 12 18 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 57 57 SW 12 18 3682 3650 650 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 12 19 3682 3650 650 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 11 18 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 11 16 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 10 16 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SSW 10 16 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 56 56 S 10 14 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 56 56 S 9 13 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 56 56 S 9 13 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 56 56 SSE 8 12 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 9 12 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 8 12 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 8 12 3661 3620 620 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 55 56 S 8 12 3671 3639 639 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 56 59 S 9 13 3728 3671 671 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 60 65 S 9 13 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 62 69 SW 8 11 4026 3925 925 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 64 72 SW 8 11 4177 4024 1024 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 66 74 SW 8 11 4393 4126 1126 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 67 75 WSW 10 14 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 67 74 WSW 10 14 4393 4126 1126 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 66 71 WSW 10 14 4129 3975 975 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 65 68 W 9 14 3975 3902 902 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 63 65 W 9 14 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 14 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 11 17 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 11 17 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 11 17 3728 3671 671 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 11 17 3728 3671 671 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 WNW 11 17 3728 3671 671 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 11 17 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 10 16 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 61 62 WNW 8 12 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 62 64 WNW 8 12 3880 3804 804 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 63 67 WNW 8 12 3950 3879 879 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 65 71 W 8 11 4129 3975 975 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 67 74 W 8 11 4393 4126 1126 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 69 77 W 8 11 4983 4384 1384 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 70 78 WSW 12 19 5172 4493 1493 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 71 78 WSW 12 19 5172 4493 1493 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 71 76 WSW 12 19 4876 4222 1222 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 69 72 W 16 23 4177 4024 1024 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 67 68 W 16 23 3975 3902 902 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 16 23 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 23 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 14 23 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 23 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 12 18 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 12 18 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 12 18 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 10 14 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 10 14 3767 3682 682 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 10 14 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 13 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 13 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 13 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 62 63 WSW 10 16 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 65 67 WSW 10 16 3950 3879 879 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 68 72 WSW 10 16 4177 4024 1024 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 72 79 W 9 13 5731 4869 1869 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 75 83 W 9 13 7643 6088 3088 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 78 87 W 9 13 11230 9225 6225 White 35
2 PM Sat 79 87 W 10 14 11230 9225 6225 White 35
3 PM Sat 80 87 W 10 14 11230 9225 6225 White 35
4 PM Sat 79 84 W 10 14 9776 6390 3390 Blue 32
5 PM Sat 77 80 WSW 11 18 6120 4976 1976 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 75 77 WSW 11 18 4983 4384 1384 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 11 18 4177 4024 1024 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 10 14 4026 3925 925 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 10 14 3950 3879 879 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 10 14 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 65 65 SW 10 16 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 10 16 3880 3804 804 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 10 16 3880 3804 804 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 64 64 SW 10 16 3880 3804 804 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 63 63 SW 10 16 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 63 63 SW 10 16 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 64 65 WSW 10 16 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 67 70 WSW 10 16 4077 3949 949 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 70 75 WSW 10 16 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 73 80 WSW 9 13 6120 4976 1976 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 76 84 WSW 9 13 9776 6390 3390 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 78 87 WSW 9 13 11230 9225 6225 White 35
2 PM Sun 79 87 WSW 10 16 11230 9225 6225 White 35
3 PM Sun 78 85 WSW 10 16 10814 6937 3937 White 33
4 PM Sun 77 82 WSW 10 16 7034 5692 2692 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 75 78 WSW 12 18 5172 4493 1493 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 73 75 WSW 12 18 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 12 18 4077 3949 949 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 10 16 3975 3902 902 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 10 16 3926 3856 856 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 10 16 3903 3833 833 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 64 64 SW 11 17 3880 3804 804 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 63 63 SW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 62 62 SW 11 17 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 11 17 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 11 17 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 61 61 SW 11 17 3806 3693 693 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 62 62 SW 11 17 3834 3727 727 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 62 63 WSW 11 17 3857 3766 766 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 64 67 WSW 11 17 3950 3879 879 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 67 71 WSW 11 17 4129 3975 975 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 69 76 WSW 10 14 4876 4222 1222 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 72 80 WSW 10 14 6120 4976 1976 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 74 83 WSW 10 14 7643 6088 3088 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 76 84 WSW 11 17 9776 6390 3390 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 77 84 WSW 11 17 9776 6390 3390 Blue 32
4 PM Mon 77 82 WSW 11 17 7034 5692 2692 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 76 79 WSW 12 18 5731 4869 1869 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 73 75 WSW 12 18 4498 4175 1175 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 12 18 4077 3949 949 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 10 14 3975 3902 902 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 10 14 3926 3856 856 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 10 14 3880 3804 804 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]