Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 26 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 26 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 28 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 28 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 28 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 N 26 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 N 26 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 N 25 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 47 N 23 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 47 49 N 23 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 48 49 N 24 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 48 48 N 24 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 47 47 N 24 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 46 46 N 24 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 29 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 29 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 28 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 50 50 NE 26 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 26 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 24 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 22 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 18 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 13 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 9 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 2 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 2 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 S 3 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 47 48 S 5 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 46 48 S 5 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 48 50 S 5 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 49 51 S 2 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 49 50 S 2 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 48 48 S 2 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 47 47 S 1 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 48 48 S 1 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 49 49 S 1 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 1 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 51 51 E 1 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 51 51 E 1 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 E 2 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 50 50 E 2 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 2 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 49 49 E 2 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 5 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 7 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 7 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 49 51 E 7 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 51 53 E 3 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 51 52 E 3 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 51 51 E 3 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 50 50 NE 3 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 50 50 NE 3 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 3 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 2 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 51 51 E 3 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 8 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 NE 7 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 49 NE 7 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NE 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 52 53 NE 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 51 52 NE 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 48 48 NE 7 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 52 52 SW 6 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 6 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 6 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 51 51 SW 7 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 50 50 W 9 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 9 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 9 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 W 7 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 46 W 7 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 50 W 7 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 51 52 W 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 52 53 W 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 4776 3608 608 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 7 7047 5472 2472 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 8 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 8 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 8 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 51 51 N 9 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 4010 3000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 2733 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 N 8 3619 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 48 N 8 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 49 51 N 8 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 8 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 51 52 N 8 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 4395 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 4994 3995 995 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 7047 5472 2472 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 7 6723 4980 1980 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 9 6032 4751 1751 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 9 5518 4375 1375 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 9 4776 3608 608 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]