Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 5 5 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 5 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 5 5 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 5 6 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 5 6 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 8 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 5 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 6 10 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 10 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 E 6 10 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 E 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 54 E 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 54 SE 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 55 E 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 ESE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 S 6 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 SSE 5 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 5 8 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 5 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 S 5 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 S 6 9 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 6 10 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 S 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 S 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SW 10 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 12 19 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 13 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 16 24 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SW 18 25 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 SSW 18 27 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 SW 18 27 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 47 SW 18 27 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 47 47 SW 18 27 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 46 SSW 17 25 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 46 SSW 17 25 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 SSW 17 25 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 16 24 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 16 24 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 16 24 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 WSW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 12 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 12 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 12 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 W 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 W 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 45 W 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 46 W 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 45 W 13 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 W 13 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 43 43 W 14 23 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 43 W 14 23 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 W 14 23 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 20 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 14 21 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 11 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 11 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 11 18 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NNW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 10 16 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 NNW 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 NNW 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 44 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 44 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 45 NNW 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 43 NNW 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 11 17 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 10 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 S 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 S 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 S 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 NE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 44 NE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 44 NE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 45 N 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 N 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 8 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NE 9 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 46 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 47 NE 8 12 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 47 N 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 N 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 N 9 14 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 8 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 8 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 8 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 11 2769 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 8 13 2769 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]