Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 W 10 19 3337 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 76 W 10 19 2761 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 W 10 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 W 11 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 W 11 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 11 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 10 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 W 10 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 71 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 72 WSW 9 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 76 WSW 10 19 2761 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 78 WSW 11 20 3337 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 73 79 WSW 11 21 3592 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 74 79 WSW 11 21 3592 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 72 75 WSW 11 21 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 71 73 WSW 11 21 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 10 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 10 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 10 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 10 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 11 20 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 SW 11 21 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 11 23 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 SW 13 23 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 13 23 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SW 13 23 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 SW 16 26 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 SW 16 26 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 SW 16 26 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 66 WSW 18 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 67 WSW 18 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 67 WSW 18 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 69 WSW 18 29 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 69 WSW 18 29 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 65 WSW 18 29 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 61 WSW 17 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 17 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 17 28 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 13 27 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 13 27 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 13 27 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 11 24 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WSW 11 24 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 11 24 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 W 4 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 W 4 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 59 W 4 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 63 NW 5 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 68 NW 5 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 70 NW 5 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 71 WNW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 66 71 WNW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 70 WNW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 68 W 9 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 9 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 9 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 SW 5 11 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 5 11 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 SW 5 11 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 SW 4 9 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SW 4 9 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SW 4 9 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 SW 4 10 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 72 W 4 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 76 W 4 12 2761 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 77 W 4 12 3050 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 78 W 8 17 3337 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 77 W 8 17 3050 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 72 75 W 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 71 73 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 SW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 67 SW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 69 SW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 71 SW 6 14 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 71 WSW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 70 WSW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 68 WSW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 65 WSW 9 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 9 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 9 19 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 17 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 13 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SW 5 13 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 SW 5 13 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 64 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 67 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 69 WSW 5 12 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 69 WSW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 68 WSW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 67 WSW 8 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 65 W 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 9 18 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 6 16 2585 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]