Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NNW 11 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 10 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 10 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 NNW 10 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 NNW 10 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 55 NW 10 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 59 NW 10 20 2965 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 63 NW 10 20 4325 3327 327 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 57 65 NW 10 20 4636 4181 1181 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 60 68 WNW 11 20 5915 4627 1627 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 61 69 W 11 20 6095 4805 1805 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 61 67 W 11 21 5343 4472 1472 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 62 67 WSW 12 23 5343 4472 1472 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 12 24 4187 3000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 58 59 WSW 13 24 2965 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 SW 13 27 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 14 28 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 14 29 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SW 16 31 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 17 32 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 SW 17 33 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 SW 17 33 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 SW 17 33 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 SW 18 33 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 SW 18 33 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 47 SW 18 32 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 49 SW 17 31 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 52 WSW 16 28 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 54 WSW 14 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 56 WSW 14 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 56 WSW 14 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 57 WSW 16 29 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 55 WSW 16 29 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 53 WSW 16 29 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 50 WSW 17 32 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 48 WSW 17 32 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 17 32 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 18 35 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 WSW 18 35 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 18 35 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 SW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 SW 18 36 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 SW 17 34 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 SW 17 34 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SW 17 34 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 SW 14 28 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 SW 14 28 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 49 SW 14 28 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 50 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 52 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 53 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 55 WSW 13 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 55 WSW 13 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 54 WSW 13 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 53 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 50 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 SW 13 27 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 SW 13 27 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 SW 13 27 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 SW 12 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 12 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 12 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 SW 8 16 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 53 SW 8 16 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 57 SW 8 16 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 60 W 6 13 3336 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 56 64 W 6 13 4481 3873 873 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 58 66 W 6 13 4817 4317 1317 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 59 67 W 10 18 5343 4472 1472 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 60 67 W 10 18 5343 4472 1472 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 60 65 W 10 18 4636 4181 1181 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 59 62 W 12 24 4187 3000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 57 58 W 12 24 2820 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 11 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 11 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SW 11 20 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 18 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 53 SW 9 17 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 56 SW 9 17 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 60 SW 9 17 3336 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 57 64 WSW 8 14 4481 3873 873 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 59 67 WSW 8 14 5343 4472 1472 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 62 71 WSW 8 14 6202 5873 2873 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 63 71 W 11 19 6202 5873 2873 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 63 70 W 11 19 6149 5291 2291 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 63 68 W 11 19 5915 4627 1627 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 62 65 WSW 12 24 4636 4181 1181 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 60 61 WSW 12 24 3892 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 12 24 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 13 25 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 12 23 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 SW 11 21 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 SW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 53 SW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 56 SW 10 19 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 59 SW 10 19 2965 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 63 WSW 9 18 4325 3327 327 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 59 66 WSW 9 18 4817 4317 1317 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 61 69 WSW 9 18 6095 4805 1805 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 62 69 WSW 12 23 6095 4805 1805 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 62 68 WSW 12 23 5915 4627 1627 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 62 66 WSW 12 23 4817 4317 1317 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 60 63 WSW 13 26 4325 3327 327 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 58 59 WSW 13 26 2965 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 WSW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 WSW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 13 26 2789 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]