Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 15 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 N 15 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 N 15 2956 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 61 NW 13 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 59 62 NW 13 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 60 64 NW 13 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 61 64 NW 14 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 62 64 NW 14 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 62 63 NW 14 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 61 61 NW 14 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 60 60 NW 14 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 59 NW 14 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 14 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 14 2956 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 14 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 15 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 N 15 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 15 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 17 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 N 21 2690 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 N 21 2956 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 N 21 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 63 66 N 21 6510 5568 2568 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 65 69 N 21 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 66 70 N 21 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 68 72 N 17 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 69 72 N 17 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 68 69 N 17 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 68 68 N 14 7207 6174 3174 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 67 67 N 14 6879 5873 2873 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 64 64 N 14 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 16 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 16 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 16 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 17 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 17 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 17 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 17 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 17 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 17 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 17 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 17 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 N 17 2956 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 18 2956 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 N 18 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 64 65 N 18 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 69 N 15 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 67 71 N 15 7703 7183 4183 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 68 72 N 15 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 70 74 N 14 8242 7676 4676 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 71 74 N 14 8242 7676 4676 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 70 71 N 14 7703 7183 4183 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 70 70 N 10 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 69 69 N 10 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 66 66 N 10 6510 5568 2568 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 65 N 15 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 63 63 N 15 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 15 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 21 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 N 21 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 21 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 61 61 N 24 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 24 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 24 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 26 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 26 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 26 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 14 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 61 NE 14 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 64 65 NE 14 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 66 69 N 16 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 67 70 N 16 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 68 72 N 16 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 70 74 N 17 8242 7676 4676 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 70 73 N 17 8033 7512 4512 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 70 71 N 17 7703 7183 4183 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 70 70 N 12 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 12 7207 6174 3174 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 66 66 N 12 6510 5568 2568 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 64 64 NW 12 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 12 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 12 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 12 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 12 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 12 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 14 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 60 60 N 14 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 14 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 15 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NE 15 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NE 15 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NE 16 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 NE 16 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 64 65 NE 16 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 66 68 NE 16 7207 6174 3174 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 67 70 NE 16 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 69 72 NE 16 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 70 73 NE 15 8033 7512 4512 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 70 72 NE 15 7868 7348 4348 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 70 71 NE 15 7703 7183 4183 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 70 70 NE 12 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 68 68 NE 12 7207 6174 3174 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 66 66 NE 12 6510 5568 2568 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 64 64 N 7 5903 4951 1951 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 63 63 N 7 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 62 62 N 7 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 61 61 SE 7 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SE 7 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 61 61 SE 7 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 8 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 60 60 E 8 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 60 60 E 8 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 8 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 NE 8 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 64 65 NE 8 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 66 69 NE 9 7372 6474 3474 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 67 70 NE 9 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 69 73 NE 9 8033 7512 4512 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 70 73 N 9 8033 7512 4512 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 71 74 N 9 8242 7676 4676 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 70 71 N 9 7703 7183 4183 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 7538 6812 3812 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 7207 6174 3174 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 6208 5243 2243 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 5597 4619 1619 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 5269 4066 1066 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 4965 3258 258 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 60 60 SW 9 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SW 9 4645 3000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 9 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 9 4183 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 9 3263 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 9 3263 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]