Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 WSW 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 WSW 5 9 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 WSW 5 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 WSW 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 3 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 WSW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 81 82 SW 2 5 5253 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 S 3 6 5932 4950 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 81 85 S 4 10 7193 5242 292 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 82 88 SSE 5 12 11364 7149 2199 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 82 89 SSE 6 14 11958 8958 4008 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 84 92 S 9 18 13773 11886 6936 White 10
2 PM Wed 85 93 S 12 21 13982 12199 7249 White 11
3 PM Wed 86 93 SW 12 23 13982 12199 7249 White 11
4 PM Wed 85 90 SW 12 21 13354 10162 5212 White 8
5 PM Wed 85 88 WSW 13 23 11364 7149 2199 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 83 84 WSW 13 23 6579 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 13 21 4836 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 11 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 16 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 11 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 5 9 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 WSW 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 SW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 76 W 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 W 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 80 W 2 5 4495 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 81 ESE 5 10 4836 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 83 ESE 5 10 5932 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 78 86 ESE 5 10 9518 5908 958 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 80 88 SSE 9 18 11364 7149 2199 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 81 88 SSE 9 18 11364 7149 2199 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 82 87 SSE 9 18 10263 6545 1595 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 81 84 SW 11 19 6579 4950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 80 82 SW 11 19 5253 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 77 77 SW 11 19 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 11 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 6 11 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 6 11 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 W 5 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 5 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 70 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 71 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 74 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 76 ESE 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 78 ESE 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 81 ESE 5 10 4836 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 74 82 SE 9 17 5253 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 75 82 SE 9 17 5253 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 76 81 SE 9 17 4836 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 75 78 SSE 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 76 SSE 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 72 SSE 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 SSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 SSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SSW 10 18 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 NNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 NNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 62 NE 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 NE 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 66 NE 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 68 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 70 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 73 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 74 SE 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 75 SE 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 74 SE 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 72 SSE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 70 SSE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 SSE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 S 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 S 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 S 6 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 WSW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 NW 3 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 NW 3 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NW 3 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 69 NNE 3 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 71 ESE 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 73 ESE 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 76 ESE 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 77 SE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 77 SE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 70 75 SE 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 73 SSE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 72 SSE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 SSE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 6 12 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 6 12 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 6 12 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 3 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 2 5 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 NNW 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 NNW 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 NNW 4 6 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NE 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 NE 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 71 NE 4 8 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 73 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 75 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 78 E 5 10 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 79 SE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 72 79 SE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 73 78 SE 8 14 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 73 76 SSE 9 16 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 72 74 SSE 9 16 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 SSE 9 16 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 SSW 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 8 13 4482 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]