Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NW 6 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 5 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NNW 5 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NW 5 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 6 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 NNW 6 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 NNW 6 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 N 16 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 50 N 16 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 50 N 16 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 51 N 10 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 50 51 N 10 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 N 10 18 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 N 10 19 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 13 21 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 13 24 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 17 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 18 28 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 20 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 21 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 21 31 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 21 31 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 N 23 31 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 N 21 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 21 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 21 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 21 29 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 N 19 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 N 19 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 N 19 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 42 N 16 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 43 N 16 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 44 N 16 27 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 45 NNE 13 25 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 46 NNE 13 25 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 45 NNE 13 25 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 N 10 20 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 N 10 20 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 N 10 20 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 N 12 19 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 N 12 19 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 N 12 19 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 10 17 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NNW 10 17 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NNW 10 17 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NW 9 14 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NW 9 14 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NW 9 14 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NW 6 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NW 6 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NW 5 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NW 5 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 43 NW 5 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 46 N 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 N 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 51 N 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 51 ENE 3 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 51 ENE 3 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 49 ENE 3 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 E 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 E 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 E 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 WNW 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 48 E 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 50 E 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 51 E 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 51 ESE 2 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 50 ESE 2 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 50 ESE 2 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 SE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 SE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 SE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 2 5 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 2 4 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 SSE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 48 SSE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 48 SSE 2 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 48 SE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 SE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 SE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 SSE 2 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 SSE 2 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 SSE 2 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 WNW 4 9 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 4 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 4 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 4 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 6 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 N 3 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 48 N 3 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 N 3 8 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 49 SSE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 48 SSE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 47 47 SSE 3 11 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 SSW 3 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 3 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 3 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 5 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 5 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 5 10 4562 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 6 14 4562 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]