Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 26 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 14 3802 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 N 14 3802 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 N 14 3586 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 N 15 3586 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 N 15 3802 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 15 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 42 N 12 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 43 44 N 12 7220 5826 876 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 45 47 N 12 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 45 46 N 10 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 46 47 N 10 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 46 46 N 10 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 42 42 N 10 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 N 10 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 10 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 9 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 N 7 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 N 7 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 7416 6449 1499 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 46 47 N 6 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 48 49 N 6 7812 7498 2548 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 6 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 50 51 NE 5 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 50 51 NE 5 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 46 46 N 3 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 43 43 N 3 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 41 41 N 3 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 39 39 N 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 N 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 NW 5 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 NW 5 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NW 5 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 43 43 N 6 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 46 47 N 3 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 49 50 N 3 7938 7589 2639 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 51 53 N 3 8317 7925 2975 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 51 52 NE 3 8191 7799 2849 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 50 51 NE 3 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 48 48 NE 3 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 46 46 N 2 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 45 45 N 2 7416 6449 1499 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 43 43 N 2 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 42 42 NE 6 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 40 40 NE 5 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 39 39 NE 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 43 43 NW 6 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 46 46 SE 3 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 48 49 SE 3 7812 7498 2548 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 50 51 SE 3 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 50 51 NE 3 8065 7679 2729 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 49 49 NE 3 7812 7498 2548 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 47 47 NE 3 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 45 45 S 3 7416 6449 1499 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 3 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 42 42 S 3 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 39 39 NW 6 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NW 6 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 6 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 6 4204 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 7 4599 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 7 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 44 44 N 6 7220 5826 876 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 46 47 N 6 7597 7200 2250 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 47 48 N 6 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 47 48 N 6 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 47 48 N 6 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 45 45 N 6 7416 6449 1499 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 44 44 N 6 7220 5826 876 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 42 42 N 6 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 41 41 N 6 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 40 40 NW 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 40 40 NW 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 40 40 NW 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 40 40 N 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 N 8 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 39 39 NW 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 9 4911 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 9 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 44 44 N 9 7220 5826 876 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 47 48 N 9 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 49 50 N 9 7938 7589 2639 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 50 52 N 9 8191 7799 2849 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 7 8317 7925 2975 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 51 52 N 7 8191 7799 2849 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 7812 7498 2548 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 7688 7408 2458 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 7 7506 6961 2011 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 7220 5826 876 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 6979 5296 346 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 9 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 9 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 6491 4950 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 8 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 41 41 NW 7 5846 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 40 40 NW 7 5306 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 39 39 NW 7 4911 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse a[email protected]