Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250707/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 SSE 4 9 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 E 4 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 E 3 6 7998 5707 757 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 70 73 E 3 6 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 71 76 ESE 4 8 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 71 77 ESE 5 10 9367 8689 3739 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 72 80 ESE 6 13 10424 9318 4368 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 73 82 ESE 8 16 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 74 82 SE 10 17 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 75 82 SE 10 18 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 76 82 SE 10 18 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 76 79 SSE 10 19 10001 8984 4034 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 76 78 SSE 11 19 9686 8739 3789 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 11 19 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 10 18 7311 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 10 16 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 8 13 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 S 5 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SW 5 10 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 SW 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 S 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 5 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 SW 2 5 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 S 2 5 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 S 2 5 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 S 2 5 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 ENE 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 ENE 3 6 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 69 ENE 3 6 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 65 71 E 6 12 7998 5707 757 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 66 74 E 6 12 8694 7925 2975 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 67 76 E 6 12 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 68 76 SE 10 19 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 69 76 SE 10 19 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 71 76 SE 10 19 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 71 75 SSE 10 19 8761 8537 3587 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 70 72 SSE 10 19 8559 6569 1619 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 69 69 SSE 10 19 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 67 67 S 10 16 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 10 16 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 10 16 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 5 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 6 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 NNW 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 NNW 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 N 4 8 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 N 4 8 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 70 N 4 8 7311 4950 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 67 73 ENE 5 10 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 68 76 ENE 5 10 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 70 78 ENE 5 10 9686 8739 3789 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 71 79 ESE 5 12 10001 8984 4034 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 73 80 ESE 5 12 10424 9318 4368 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 74 79 ESE 5 12 10001 8984 4034 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 74 77 SE 5 11 9367 8689 3739 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 73 75 SE 5 11 8761 8537 3587 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 71 71 SE 5 11 7998 5707 757 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 11 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 11 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 6 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 WNW 6 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 6 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 11 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 10 4106 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 10 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NW 5 10 7311 4950 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 73 74 NNW 6 12 8694 7925 2975 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 74 76 NNW 6 12 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 75 79 NNW 6 12 10001 8984 4034 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 75 81 NE 6 12 10996 9640 4690 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 76 84 NE 6 12 12589 10884 5934 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 78 87 NE 6 12 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 79 87 SE 6 13 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 80 87 SE 6 13 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 81 86 SE 6 13 13570 11958 7008 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 81 85 S 5 11 12826 11430 6480 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 80 82 S 5 11 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 77 77 S 5 11 9367 8689 3739 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 5 11 8761 8537 3587 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 5 11 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 5 11 7998 5707 757 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 12 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 8 12 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 69 69 W 8 12 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 8 12 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 8 12 5737 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 8 12 5737 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 68 68 NW 9 13 5737 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 70 70 NW 9 13 7311 4950 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 73 73 NW 9 13 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 75 76 N 6 12 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 76 78 N 6 12 9686 8739 3789 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 76 80 N 6 12 10424 9318 4368 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 77 83 ENE 6 11 12082 10319 5369 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 78 86 ENE 6 11 13570 11958 7008 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 80 89 ENE 6 11 15821 13363 8413 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 81 89 ESE 6 13 15821 13363 8413 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 82 89 ESE 6 13 15821 13363 8413 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 83 88 ESE 6 13 15072 12778 7828 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 83 86 S 6 13 13570 11958 7008 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 82 84 S 6 13 12589 10884 5934 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 80 80 S 6 13 10424 9318 4368 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 8 13 9367 8689 3739 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 8 13 8694 7925 2975 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 8 13 8559 6569 1619 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 10 7311 4950 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 W 5 10 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 69 69 W 5 10 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 69 69 WNW 5 9 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 68 68 WNW 5 9 5737 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 67 67 WNW 5 9 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 NW 5 10 4737 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 NW 5 10 6607 4950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 72 72 NW 5 10 8559 6569 1619 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 74 75 N 5 9 8761 8537 3587 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 75 77 N 5 9 9367 8689 3739 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 76 80 N 5 9 10424 9318 4368 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 76 82 E 5 10 11548 9938 4988 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 77 85 E 5 10 12826 11430 6480 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 78 86 E 5 10 13570 11958 7008 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 87 SE 8 13 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 80 87 SE 8 13 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 82 87 SE 8 13 14272 12471 7521 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 82 85 S 9 16 12826 11430 6480 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 81 83 S 9 16 12082 10319 5369 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 79 79 S 9 16 10001 8984 4034 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 14 9029 8644 3694 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 9 14 8650 7257 2307 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 14 7998 5707 757 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]