Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 5 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 5 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 W 5 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 4 4 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 3 3 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 3 3 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 4 4 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 SW 3 3 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 SW 4 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 SW 5 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 SSW 5 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 S 5 10 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 52 S 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 52 S 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 SSW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 SW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 SW 5 9 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 SW 5 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 SSW 5 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 SW 5 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 SW 5 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 SSW 5 9 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 8 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SSW 9 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 10 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SW 11 13 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 SW 13 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 SW 18 23 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SW 18 23 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 18 23 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 WSW 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 WSW 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 WSW 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 42 SW 18 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 42 42 SW 18 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 42 SW 18 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 21 32 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 21 32 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 21 32 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 W 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 W 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 19 28 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 W 17 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 17 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 17 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 17 21 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 17 21 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 W 17 21 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 W 17 25 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 17 25 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 W 17 25 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 12 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 12 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 12 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 38 38 WSW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 38 W 12 19 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 37 W 12 19 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 36 W 12 19 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 35 W 13 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 34 W 13 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 W 13 20 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 WNW 11 17 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 WNW 11 17 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 WNW 11 17 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 11 16 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 NW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 36 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 38 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 39 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 39 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 38 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 35 35 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 34 34 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 33 33 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 N 10 14 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 8 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NW 8 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NW 8 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 NNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 38 NNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 39 NNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 39 NNW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 WNW 8 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 NW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 41 NW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 42 NW 6 11 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 42 NW 9 13 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 NW 9 13 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 NW 9 13 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 9 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]