Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 NE 12 19 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NE 12 19 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 5 9 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 70 N 5 9 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 75 NE 5 9 6252 5083 133 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 73 78 NE 5 9 7299 6226 1276 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 74 79 NE 5 9 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 76 81 SE 8 12 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 77 81 SE 8 12 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 78 81 SE 8 12 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 77 78 SSE 10 16 7299 6226 1276 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 75 75 SSE 10 16 6252 5083 133 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 71 71 SSE 10 16 5022 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 S 8 12 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 S 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 S 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SSW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 SW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SSW 10 16 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 SSW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 SSW 8 12 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 72 SSW 8 12 5084 4950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 71 74 SSE 6 10 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 72 76 SSE 6 10 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 73 77 SSE 6 10 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 74 79 SE 11 17 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 75 79 SE 11 17 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 75 78 SE 11 17 7299 6226 1276 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 73 74 SE 9 13 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 71 71 SE 9 13 5022 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 SE 9 13 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 E 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 E 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 N 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 14 23 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 NNW 14 23 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 71 NNW 14 23 5022 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 74 NNE 9 13 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 72 76 NNE 9 13 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 74 79 NNE 9 13 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 75 79 NNE 11 17 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 76 79 NNE 11 17 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 76 78 NNE 11 17 7299 6226 1276 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 75 76 N 6 10 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 73 73 N 6 10 5146 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 71 71 N 6 10 5022 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 NNE 10 16 4802 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 NNE 10 16 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 NNE 10 16 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 NE 8 12 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NE 8 12 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 NE 8 12 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 NE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NE 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 NW 6 10 4802 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 NW 6 10 5146 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 74 77 ESE 9 13 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 76 81 ESE 9 13 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 77 82 ESE 9 13 8057 7503 2553 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 78 83 E 10 16 8516 7754 2804 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 79 83 E 10 16 8516 7754 2804 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 79 82 E 10 16 8057 7503 2553 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 78 79 S 8 12 7525 6765 1815 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 76 76 S 8 12 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 72 72 S 8 12 5084 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 13 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 13 4689 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 9 13 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SW 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 9 13 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 WNW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 WNW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 8 12 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 WNW 5 9 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 WNW 5 9 5022 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 74 S 6 10 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 73 77 S 6 10 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 75 80 S 6 10 7778 7074 2124 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 76 81 SSW 6 10 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 77 81 SSW 6 10 7952 7282 2332 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 77 80 SSW 6 10 7778 7074 2124 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 76 77 SSW 6 10 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 6 10 5146 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 6 10 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 10 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 4 6 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 NW 3 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 NW 3 5 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 69 NW 3 5 4802 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 72 SSE 5 9 5084 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SSE 5 9 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 72 76 SSE 5 9 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 73 77 S 6 10 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 74 77 S 6 10 7090 5671 721 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 74 76 S 6 10 6799 5145 195 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 73 74 S 5 9 5688 5021 71 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 70 70 S 5 9 4914 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 S 5 9 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 10 4514 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]