Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260516/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 WNW 27 33 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 27 32 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 WNW 26 31 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 26 29 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 25 28 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NW 23 26 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NNW 23 27 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 21 27 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 NNW 20 27 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 57 N 24 33 7818 4950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 55 59 N 20 31 9012 7229 2279 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 55 60 N 16 25 9730 7774 2824 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 57 64 N 14 25 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 58 65 N 13 25 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 59 65 N 12 24 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 59 64 N 12 24 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 60 64 N 13 24 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 59 61 N 14 23 10081 8202 3252 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 58 59 NNW 20 27 9012 7229 2279 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 25 33 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 54 54 NW 23 32 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 WNW 19 28 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 WNW 20 28 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NNW 20 28 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NNW 25 32 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 26 34 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NNW 26 34 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 27 34 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 27 33 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 27 36 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 27 36 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 27 36 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 47 N 28 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 49 N 28 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 51 N 28 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 54 N 25 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 56 N 25 42 7333 4950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 50 58 N 25 42 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 52 60 N 24 42 9730 7774 2824 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 52 58 N 24 42 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 53 58 N 24 42 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 54 57 N 28 43 7818 4950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 54 N 28 43 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 N 28 43 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 29 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 29 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 29 42 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 28 39 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NW 28 39 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 28 39 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 31 40 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 31 40 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 31 40 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 27 35 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 27 35 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 27 35 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 NNW 27 36 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 57 NNW 27 36 7818 4950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 55 60 NNW 27 36 9730 7774 2824 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 56 62 N 20 34 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 58 66 N 20 34 11542 10651 5701 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 60 68 N 20 34 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 61 69 NNE 14 26 12299 11479 6529 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 62 68 NNE 14 26 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 63 68 NNE 14 26 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 62 65 N 13 23 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 61 62 N 13 23 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 60 60 N 13 23 9730 7774 2824 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 8 13 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 8 13 7818 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 8 13 7333 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 19 7333 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 W 14 19 5896 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 14 19 5896 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 16 23 5896 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 16 23 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 WNW 16 23 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 WNW 12 18 4709 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 12 18 5896 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 12 18 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 61 62 NW 12 19 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 62 65 NW 12 19 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 63 68 NW 12 19 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 64 70 NE 11 19 12489 11752 6802 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 65 73 NE 11 19 13045 12439 7489 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 66 74 NE 11 19 13626 12628 7678 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 67 75 ENE 6 14 14068 12816 7866 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 68 74 ENE 6 14 13626 12628 7678 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 68 73 ENE 6 14 13045 12439 7489 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 68 71 ENE 6 13 12678 12023 7073 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 67 68 ENE 6 13 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 65 65 ENE 6 13 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 4 8 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 4 8 10706 9618 4668 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 4 8 10081 8202 3252 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 12 9730 7774 2824 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 8 12 9012 7229 2279 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 8 12 9012 7229 2279 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 5 9 9012 7229 2279 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 58 58 WNW 5 9 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 57 57 WNW 5 9 7818 4950 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 58 58 NW 4 8 8283 5837 887 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 61 61 NW 4 8 10081 8202 3252 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 65 65 NW 4 8 11265 10371 5421 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 68 69 NNW 4 8 12299 11479 6529 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 69 72 NNW 4 8 12867 12251 7301 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 69 73 NNW 4 8 13045 12439 7489 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 69 75 NE 8 13 14068 12816 7866 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 70 77 NE 8 13 15165 13413 8463 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 71 79 NE 8 13 16155 14258 9308 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 72 79 E 6 13 16155 14258 9308 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 72 78 E 6 13 15786 13979 9029 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 72 76 E 6 13 14349 12996 8046 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 72 74 ESE 9 14 13626 12628 7678 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 71 72 ESE 9 14 12867 12251 7301 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 70 70 ESE 9 14 12489 11752 6802 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 11 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 11 11542 10651 5701 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 6 11 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 12 10706 9618 4668 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 10 12 10706 9618 4668 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 63 63 W 10 12 10706 9618 4668 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 5 9 10706 9618 4668 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 5 9 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 5 9 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 4 8 10424 8913 3963 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 4 8 10987 10020 5070 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 4 8 11542 10651 5701 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 68 69 N 4 9 12299 11479 6529 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 70 73 N 4 9 13045 12439 7489 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 71 76 N 4 9 14349 12996 8046 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 72 78 ENE 8 13 15786 13979 9029 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 73 81 ENE 8 13 16940 15695 10745 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 74 82 ENE 8 13 17145 15977 11027 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 75 83 SE 9 17 17443 16482 11532 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 76 82 SE 9 17 17145 15977 11027 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 76 81 SE 9 17 16940 15695 10745 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 75 77 SSW 11 17 15165 13413 8463 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 73 74 SSW 11 17 13626 12628 7678 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 11 17 12678 12023 7073 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 11 18 12299 11479 6529 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 11 18 12090 11205 6255 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 11 18 11817 10929 5979 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]