Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 S 10 10 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 S 10 10 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 S 8 12 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 8 12 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 8 12 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 ESE 8 12 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 65 ESE 8 12 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 69 ESE 8 12 6079 4958 8 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 65 72 ESE 9 13 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 75 ESE 9 13 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 70 78 ESE 9 13 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 71 79 ESE 11 17 13651 12804 7854 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 73 80 ESE 11 17 13962 12976 8026 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 73 78 ESE 11 17 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 73 76 SE 12 19 12850 9500 4550 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 73 75 SE 12 19 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 70 70 SE 12 19 6393 5118 168 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 68 68 SW 9 13 5660 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 9 13 5121 4950 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 65 65 SW 9 13 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 9 13 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 9 13 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 9 13 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 6 10 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 N 6 10 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 N 6 10 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NNE 5 9 5660 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 67 70 NNE 5 9 6393 5118 168 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 68 72 NNE 5 9 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 70 76 E 8 12 12850 9500 4550 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 73 81 E 8 12 14273 13197 8247 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 75 83 E 8 12 17878 13895 8945 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 76 83 ESE 11 17 17878 13895 8945 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 77 83 ESE 11 17 17878 13895 8945 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 77 82 ESE 11 17 16413 13548 8598 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 77 80 SW 8 12 13962 12976 8026 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 76 77 SW 8 12 13023 11960 7010 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 12 12211 6931 1981 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 9 13 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 70 70 SW 9 13 6393 5118 168 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 13 6079 4958 8 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 12 5121 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 8 12 5121 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 67 67 W 8 12 5121 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 66 66 NW 6 10 4958 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 65 65 NW 6 10 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 6 10 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 5 9 4849 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 5 9 5121 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 70 71 NNE 5 9 6984 5648 698 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 72 75 NNE 5 9 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 73 78 NNE 5 9 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 75 82 E 8 12 16413 13548 8598 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 77 85 E 8 12 18799 15726 10776 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 79 87 E 8 12 19480 18294 13344 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 81 89 ESE 9 13 20669 18972 14022 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 82 89 ESE 9 13 20669 18972 14022 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 83 88 ESE 9 13 19808 18635 13685 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 83 86 S 8 12 19141 17297 12347 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 82 83 S 8 12 17878 13895 8945 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 81 81 S 8 12 14273 13197 8247 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 8 12 13651 12804 7854 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 8 12 13023 11960 7010 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 8 12 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 73 73 WNW 9 13 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 WNW 9 13 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 71 71 WNW 9 13 6984 5648 698 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 70 70 WNW 8 12 6393 5118 168 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 69 69 WNW 8 12 6079 4958 8 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 68 68 WNW 8 12 5660 4950 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 69 69 NNW 6 10 6079 4958 8 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 6 10 6984 5648 698 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 73 73 NNW 6 10 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 75 76 NNE 6 10 12850 9500 4550 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 77 79 NNE 6 10 13651 12804 7854 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 77 81 NNE 6 10 14273 13197 8247 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 84 ENE 8 12 18456 14162 9212 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 80 87 ENE 8 12 19480 18294 13344 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 83 90 ENE 8 12 21613 19309 14359 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 85 93 ESE 10 16 22478 21176 16226 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 87 94 ESE 10 16 22820 21693 16743 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 87 92 ESE 10 16 22130 19959 15009 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 86 89 S 9 13 20669 18972 14022 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 85 87 S 9 13 19480 18294 13344 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 9 13 17878 13895 8945 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 13 20 13962 12976 8026 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 78 78 W 13 20 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 77 77 W 13 20 13023 11960 7010 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 16 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 W 10 16 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 74 74 W 10 16 12211 6931 1981 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 73 73 WNW 6 10 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 73 73 WNW 6 10 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 73 73 WNW 6 10 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 74 74 N 5 9 12211 6931 1981 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 75 75 N 5 9 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 77 77 N 5 9 13023 11960 7010 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 79 80 N 4 6 13962 12976 8026 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 81 84 N 4 6 18456 14162 9212 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 83 88 N 4 6 19808 18635 13685 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 85 92 ESE 5 9 22130 19959 15009 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 87 95 ESE 5 9 23158 21914 16964 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 89 98 ESE 5 9 26461 22938 17988 White 33
2 PM Sun 90 98 SE 6 10 26461 22938 17988 White 33
3 PM Sun 91 98 SE 6 10 26461 22938 17988 White 33
4 PM Sun 91 96 SE 6 10 23682 22260 17310 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 90 93 SSW 8 12 22478 21176 16226 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 89 91 SSW 8 12 21814 19640 14690 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 86 86 SSW 8 12 19141 17297 12347 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 10 16 18456 14162 9212 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 10 16 14273 13197 8247 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 79 79 WSW 10 16 13651 12804 7854 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 77 77 WSW 8 12 13023 11960 7010 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 WSW 8 12 12850 9500 4550 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 75 75 WSW 8 12 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 5 9 12211 6931 1981 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 73 73 W 5 9 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 72 72 W 5 9 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 72 72 N 4 6 7627 6066 1116 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 73 73 N 4 6 9913 6377 1427 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 75 75 N 4 6 12602 7575 2625 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 77 78 NE 3 5 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 78 81 NE 3 5 14273 13197 8247 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 79 84 NE 3 5 18456 14162 9212 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 81 88 SSE 6 10 19808 18635 13685 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 83 91 SSE 6 10 21814 19640 14690 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 85 94 SSE 6 10 22820 21693 16743 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 87 95 SSE 8 12 23158 21914 16964 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 88 95 SSE 8 12 23158 21914 16964 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 88 93 SSE 8 12 22478 21176 16226 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 86 90 SSW 10 16 21613 19309 14359 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 84 86 SSW 10 16 19141 17297 12347 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 82 82 SSW 10 16 16413 13548 8598 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 80 80 SW 9 13 13962 12976 8026 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 9 13 13297 12522 7572 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 76 76 SW 9 13 12850 9500 4550 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]