Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 W 8 12 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 12 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 W 6 11 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 11 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 11 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 10 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 5 10 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 10 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 9 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 5 9 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 5 9 4494 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 5 10 4494 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 44 WNW 4 9 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 43 44 WNW 4 10 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 43 44 WNW 4 10 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 43 44 NW 5 11 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 43 44 NW 5 11 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 43 43 NW 5 11 5290 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 10 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 43 43 WNW 5 10 5290 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 5 9 4494 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 5 10 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 6 11 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 NNW 9 13 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NW 9 13 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NW 10 14 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NW 10 14 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 14 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NW 10 16 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NNW 11 17 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NNW 11 17 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 11 17 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 11 17 5290 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 46 47 WNW 11 17 6353 5704 754 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 50 52 WNW 11 17 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 52 55 N 10 18 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 54 58 N 10 18 9016 8168 3218 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 56 61 N 10 18 9820 8978 4028 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 57 61 NNE 11 19 9820 8978 4028 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 58 61 NNE 11 19 9820 8978 4028 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 59 61 NNE 11 19 9820 8978 4028 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 58 59 N 11 19 9286 8439 3489 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 57 57 N 11 19 8746 7901 2951 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 11 19 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 9 12 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 12 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 12 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 12 19 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 12 19 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 19 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 49 49 NW 11 17 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 11 17 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 49 49 NW 11 17 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 49 49 NW 10 13 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 48 48 NW 10 13 6493 6066 1116 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 49 49 NW 10 13 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 50 50 NW 8 12 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 53 54 NW 8 12 7929 7098 2148 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 56 58 NW 8 12 9016 8168 3218 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 60 64 N 6 12 10577 9775 4825 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 6 12 11542 10530 5580 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 63 68 N 6 12 11919 10772 5822 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 63 68 NE 6 12 11919 10772 5822 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 63 67 NE 6 12 11542 10530 5580 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 63 66 NE 6 12 11063 10288 5338 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 62 63 NE 8 13 10333 9511 4561 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 60 60 NE 8 13 9554 8710 3760 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 8 13 8746 7901 2951 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 4 8 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 4 8 7929 7098 2148 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 4 8 7660 6829 1879 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 8 11 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 WNW 8 11 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 8 11 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 8 11 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 51 51 NW 8 11 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 50 50 NW 8 11 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 50 50 NW 6 11 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 50 50 NW 6 11 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 11 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 52 52 NW 5 11 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 55 56 NW 5 11 8473 7635 2685 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 58 60 NW 5 11 9554 8710 3760 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 61 64 NE 5 10 10577 9775 4825 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 63 67 NE 5 10 11542 10530 5580 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 64 69 NE 5 10 12270 11012 6062 White 27
2 PM Tue 64 68 ESE 8 14 11919 10772 5822 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 64 67 ESE 8 14 11542 10530 5580 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 64 66 ESE 8 14 11063 10288 5338 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 63 64 S 10 18 10577 9775 4825 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 60 60 S 10 18 9554 8710 3760 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 58 58 S 10 18 9016 8168 3218 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 12 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 12 7929 7098 2148 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 8 12 7660 6829 1879 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 6 10 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 WNW 6 10 7390 6625 1675 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 6 10 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 6 10 7119 6485 1535 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 6 10 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 6 10 6493 6066 1116 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 6 10 6493 6066 1116 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 6 10 6353 5704 754 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 6 10 6493 6066 1116 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 49 49 W 9 13 6633 6205 1255 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 50 50 W 9 13 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 53 54 W 9 13 7929 7098 2148 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 54 55 S 13 21 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 55 57 S 13 21 8746 7901 2951 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 55 57 S 13 21 8746 7901 2951 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 55 57 SSW 18 31 8746 7901 2951 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 54 55 SSW 18 31 8199 7367 2417 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 52 53 SSW 18 31 7660 6829 1879 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 50 50 SW 23 35 6848 6345 1395 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 48 48 SW 23 35 6493 6066 1116 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 46 46 SW 23 35 6212 5282 332 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 44 44 WSW 21 33 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 21 33 5290 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 21 33 4494 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 18 27 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 WSW 18 27 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 18 27 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 17 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 WSW 17 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 17 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 13 21 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 13 21 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 13 21 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 18 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 12 18 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 WSW 12 18 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 WSW 12 20 4494 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 WSW 12 20 5290 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 12 20 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 13 25 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 44 45 WSW 13 25 6072 4950 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 13 25 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 17 26 5717 4950 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 17 26 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 17 26 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 W 16 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 W 16 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 W 16 24 4012 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]