Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 10 14 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 6 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 W 5 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 5 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 4 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 4 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 4 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 NW 2 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 N 2 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 73 NE 3 9 4571 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 74 SE 3 11 4869 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 70 76 SSE 4 12 7737 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 72 78 S 4 14 8068 6433 1483 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 72 77 SSW 5 14 7817 4950 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 72 75 WSW 5 14 6443 4950 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 73 75 W 5 12 6443 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 4 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 9 14 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 9 14 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 9 14 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 9 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 8 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 W 5 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 W 5 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 W 5 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 WSW 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 WSW 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 67 S 6 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 68 S 6 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 70 S 6 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 70 SW 11 26 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 70 SW 11 26 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 65 SW 11 26 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 62 WSW 14 28 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 14 28 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 14 28 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 27 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 17 27 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 17 27 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 11 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 W 11 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 11 19 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 10 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 10 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 6 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 WNW 6 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 6 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 50 WNW 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 WNW 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 NNE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 61 NNE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 63 NNE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 64 NE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 64 NE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 62 NE 5 13 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 60 NE 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 6 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 W 6 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 6 12 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 13 21 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 13 21 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 W 13 21 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 9 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 9 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 9 16 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 W 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 67 ENE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 69 ENE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 71 ENE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 71 E 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 71 E 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 69 E 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 67 SE 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 SE 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 SE 3 8 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 W 3 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 NW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 NW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 NW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 67 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 69 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 70 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 69 SE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 70 SE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 68 SE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 66 SSE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 62 SSE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 SSE 4 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 1 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 1 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 1 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 W 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 2 4 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NW 3 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NW 3 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 NW 3 6 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 N 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 N 2 5 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 65 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 67 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 68 E 4 9 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 68 ESE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 68 ESE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 66 ESE 5 11 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 65 ESE 4 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 4 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 ESE 4 10 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 2 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 2 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 2 3 4469 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]