Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NW 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NW 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 NW 9 4652 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 NW 9 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 53 55 NW 8 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 55 57 NW 8 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 55 57 NW 8 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 56 58 W 8 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 57 59 W 8 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 57 58 W 8 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 8 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 53 53 NW 8 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 53 53 NW 10 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 53 53 NW 10 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 52 52 NW 10 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 52 52 NW 9 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 9 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 10 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 10 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 10 5122 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 5122 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 58 58 N 10 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 60 61 N 10 7842 7319 2369 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 62 64 N 12 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 65 68 N 12 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 66 69 N 12 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 67 70 N 10 10701 9671 4721 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 67 69 N 10 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 67 68 N 10 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 66 66 N 12 9357 8161 3211 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 64 64 N 12 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 12 7842 7319 2369 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 12 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 12 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 57 57 N 12 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 12 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 55 55 N 12 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 55 55 N 12 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 10 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 59 59 N 10 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 62 63 N 10 8203 7657 2707 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 65 67 N 10 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 67 70 N 10 10701 9671 4721 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 67 70 N 10 10701 9671 4721 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 68 71 N 10 10908 10037 5087 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 68 70 N 10 10701 9671 4721 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 68 69 N 10 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 9 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 9 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 9 7842 7319 2369 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 9 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 58 58 N 9 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 9 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 59 59 NW 13 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 13 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 13 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 57 57 NW 13 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 56 56 NW 13 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 56 56 NW 13 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 16 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 16 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 16 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 16 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 58 58 N 16 7334 6396 1446 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 59 60 N 16 7673 7150 2200 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 61 63 N 20 8203 7657 2707 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 63 66 N 20 9357 8161 3211 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 64 67 N 20 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 65 68 N 20 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 65 67 N 20 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 65 66 N 20 9357 8161 3211 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 21 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 21 8011 7488 2538 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 21 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 57 57 N 21 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 21 7164 6087 1137 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 21 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 21 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 21 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 21 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 21 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 21 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 21 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 52 52 N 16 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 16 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 52 52 N 16 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 53 53 N 16 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 56 56 N 16 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 58 59 N 16 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 61 63 N 15 8203 7657 2707 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 63 66 N 15 9357 8161 3211 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 64 67 N 15 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 65 68 N 15 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 66 68 N 15 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 66 67 N 15 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 64 64 N 10 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 62 62 N 10 8011 7488 2538 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 7503 6702 1752 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 56 56 N 10 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 10 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 54 54 N 10 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 7 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 7 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 53 53 N 7 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 52 52 N 7 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 52 52 N 7 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 5122 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 4825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 4825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NW 6 5122 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 56 56 NW 6 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 59 60 NW 6 7673 7150 2200 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 62 64 N 7 8593 7825 2875 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 64 67 N 7 9731 8544 3594 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 65 69 N 7 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 66 69 N 7 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 67 69 N 7 10496 9300 4350 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 67 68 N 7 10101 8925 3975 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 66 66 W 7 9357 8161 3211 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 8203 7657 2707 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 7 7673 7150 2200 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 6728 5776 826 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 6412 5454 504 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NW 8 6100 5118 168 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 53 53 NW 8 5786 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 8 5462 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 51 51 NW 8 5122 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 8 4825 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]