Detailed Predictions for: Potato Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.34098, -122.69, 3400
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 241208/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 49 47 NW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 47 WNW 3 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 47 WNW 4 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 46 WNW 4 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 46 WNW 4 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 45 WNW 4 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 44 NW 4 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 44 NW 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 44 NW 4 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 47 NNW 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 50 N 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 52 NNE 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 53 NNE 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 54 NNE 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 54 NNE 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 54 N 4 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 51 NW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 50 NW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 48 NW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 45 NNW 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 45 NNW 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 NNW 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 44 NNW 6 14 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 44 NNW 6 14 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 44 NNW 6 14 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 44 W 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 43 W 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 42 W 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 42 NW 8 18 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 41 NW 8 18 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 41 NW 8 18 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 40 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 40 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 43 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 46 N 9 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 48 N 9 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 51 N 9 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 51 NNE 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 49 NNE 8 17 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 47 N 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 45 N 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 43 N 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 42 N 8 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 41 N 8 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 41 N 8 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 41 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 41 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 42 N 6 16 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 42 N 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 42 N 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 41 N 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 41 N 4 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 40 N 4 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 39 N 4 9 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 40 N 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 40 N 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 42 N 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 43 NNE 4 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 46 NNE 4 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 47 NNE 4 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 49 48 NE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 47 NE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 46 NE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 45 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 44 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 42 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 41 N 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 41 N 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 41 N 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 41 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 40 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 40 NNW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 42 NNW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 43 NNW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 45 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 48 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 50 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 51 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 51 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 49 NE 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 48 W 1 2 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 47 W 1 2 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 45 W 1 2 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 44 WNW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 44 WNW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 45 WNW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 45 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 45 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 43 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 43 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 42 NW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 NW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 43 NW 2 4 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 44 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 47 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 48 N 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 49 WNW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 48 WNW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 47 WNW 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 46 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 45 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 43 NW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 43 NW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 44 NW 3 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 44 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 43 WNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 43 WNW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 43 WNW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 43 WNW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 42 NW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 42 NW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 41 NW 2 6 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 40 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 41 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 42 NNW 2 5 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 43 ESE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 44 ESE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 45 ESE 3 8 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 45 SE 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 45 SE 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 44 SE 5 11 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 44 SSE 4 10 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 43 SSE 4 10 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 42 SSE 4 10 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 41 S 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 41 S 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 42 S 5 12 2726 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 43 SSW 5 13 2726 3400 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]