Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 SW 17 26 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 26 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 14 23 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 14 23 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 14 23 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 13 20 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 13 20 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 13 20 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 35 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 36 36 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 12 19 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 39 WSW 11 17 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 11 17 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 11 17 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 W 8 12 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 41 41 W 8 12 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 39 39 W 8 12 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 WSW 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 WSW 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 E 1 4 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 E 1 4 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 E 1 4 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 ESE 3 6 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 ESE 3 6 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 ESE 3 6 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 E 2 5 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 E 2 5 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 E 2 5 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 ENE 1 4 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 1 4 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 ENE 1 4 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 41 43 W 3 6 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 43 45 W 3 6 7042 7200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 45 48 W 3 6 7865 7200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 47 49 WNW 3 6 8138 7304 104 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 49 51 WNW 3 6 8694 7847 647 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 50 51 WNW 3 6 8694 7847 647 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 9 8417 7576 376 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 9 8138 7304 104 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 9 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 45 45 NNW 4 8 7042 7200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 43 43 NNW 4 8 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 4 8 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 39 39 E 4 8 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 E 4 8 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 E 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 ENE 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 ENE 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 ENE 4 8 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 9 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 9 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 9 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 ENE 5 9 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 5 9 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 46 47 ENE 5 9 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 50 53 E 5 9 9243 8393 1193 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 53 57 E 5 9 10309 9482 2282 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 55 59 E 5 9 10805 10018 2818 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 57 61 ESE 6 10 11501 10519 3319 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 58 61 ESE 6 10 11501 10519 3319 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 59 61 ESE 6 10 11501 10519 3319 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 59 60 ENE 5 9 11050 10272 3072 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 57 57 ENE 5 9 10309 9482 2282 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 5 9 9515 8668 1468 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 5 9 8969 8117 917 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 5 9 8138 7304 104 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 47 47 NE 5 9 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 45 45 ENE 5 9 7042 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 ENE 5 9 6767 7200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 5 9 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 9 6447 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 9 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 9 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 9 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 9 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 9 6447 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 46 47 E 5 9 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 51 53 E 5 9 9243 8393 1193 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 55 58 SE 6 10 10558 9751 2551 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 58 62 SE 6 10 11915 10764 3564 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 60 64 SE 6 10 12576 11260 4060 White 25
2 PM Tue 62 66 SE 6 10 12995 12222 5022 White 27
3 PM Tue 63 66 SE 6 10 12995 12222 5022 White 27
4 PM Tue 64 66 SE 6 10 12995 12222 5022 White 27
5 PM Tue 63 63 S 9 13 12336 11008 3808 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 61 61 S 9 13 11501 10519 3319 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 58 58 S 9 13 10558 9751 2551 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 55 55 S 9 13 9786 8941 1741 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 9 13 9243 8393 1193 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 51 51 S 9 13 8694 7847 647 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 6 10 8138 7304 104 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 S 6 10 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 10 7318 7200 0 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 45 45 S 6 10 7042 7200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 44 44 S 6 10 6767 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 43 43 S 6 10 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 10 16 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 10 16 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 10 16 6767 7200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 46 46 SSE 10 16 7318 7200 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 50 50 SSE 10 16 8417 7576 376 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 54 55 SSE 10 16 9786 8941 1741 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 58 60 SSW 17 26 11050 10272 3072 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 61 64 SSW 17 26 12576 11260 4060 White 25
1 PM Wed 62 65 SSW 17 26 12785 11868 4668 White 26
2 PM Wed 62 65 SSW 17 26 12785 11868 4668 White 26
3 PM Wed 61 63 SSW 17 26 12336 11008 3808 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 60 61 SSW 17 26 11501 10519 3319 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 58 58 SW 24 36 10558 9751 2551 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 56 56 SW 24 36 10055 9212 2012 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 24 36 9243 8393 1193 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 51 51 SW 24 36 8694 7847 647 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 49 49 SW 24 36 8138 7304 104 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 24 36 7592 7200 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 45 45 SW 20 31 7042 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 20 31 6767 7200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 20 31 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 41 41 SW 20 31 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 20 31 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 39 39 SW 20 31 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 SW 20 31 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SW 20 31 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 20 31 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 SW 20 31 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 SW 20 31 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 39 SW 20 31 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 40 WSW 20 31 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 40 41 WSW 20 31 6305 7200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 42 43 WSW 20 31 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 42 43 WSW 20 31 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 20 31 6767 7200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 20 31 6590 7200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 42 42 W 19 29 6447 7200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 40 40 W 19 29 6163 7200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 38 38 W 19 29 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 W 19 29 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 W 19 29 5742 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 W 19 29 5742 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]