Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 49 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 60 62 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 67 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 71 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 75 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 77 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 74 77 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 73 74 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 74 74 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 71 71 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 67 67 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 59 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 56 56 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 55 55 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 60 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 67 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 69 72 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 72 76 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 74 78 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 75 78 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 76 79 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 76 77 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 59 59 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 58 58 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 56 56 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 55 55 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 62 63 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 70 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 70 73 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 73 77 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 74 77 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 74 76 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 74 75 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 72 72 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 58 58 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 57 57 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 53 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 62 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 67 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 67 71 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 70 74 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 72 76 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 73 76 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 74 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 72 72 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 57 57 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 55 55 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 53 53 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 48 48 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 53 53 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 60 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 63 65 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 67 70 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 69 72 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 71 74 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 74 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 72 73 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 57 57 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 53 53 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 51 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 51 51 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 57 58 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 61 63 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 63 65 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 65 67 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 66 68 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 66 67 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 66 67 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]