Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 SSE 6 10 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SSE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 SSE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 44 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 50 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 49 50 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 50 50 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 SSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 SSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 S 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 S 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 S 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 S 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 S 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 S 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 S 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 S 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 20 31 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 20 31 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 43 SSW 20 31 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 25 37 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 25 37 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 SSW 25 37 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 37 37 SW 19 29 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 SW 19 29 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 SW 19 29 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 WSW 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 WSW 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 WSW 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 SW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 SW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 SW 14 23 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 31 31 SSW 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 31 31 SW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 31 31 SW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 30 30 SW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 29 29 WSW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 29 29 WSW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 WSW 21 33 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 27 27 W 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 W 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 W 18 27 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 W 16 24 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 W 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 W 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 W 13 20 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 22 WSW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 WSW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 24 WSW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 25 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 26 26 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 27 27 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 27 27 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 27 27 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 27 27 S 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 27 27 SE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 SE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 SE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 ESE 6 10 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 ESE 6 10 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 ESE 6 10 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 ESE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 ESE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 ESE 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 SE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 SE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 SE 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 SSE 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 S 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 S 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 28 S 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 29 SSW 11 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 30 30 SSW 11 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 31 31 SSW 11 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 SSW 11 17 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 SSW 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 SSW 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SSW 10 16 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 9 14 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 9 14 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 9 14 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SW 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SW 9 13 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 34 SW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 33 33 WSW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 33 33 NW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 32 32 NW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 NW 8 12 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 N 6 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 N 6 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 N 6 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 E 8 11 5164 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]