Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 S 4 8 5614 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 S 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 S 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 SE 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 SE 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SE 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 SSE 2 5 5614 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 SSE 2 5 7686 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 76 79 SSE 2 5 10856 8460 1260 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 79 82 SW 3 6 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 81 85 SW 3 6 14850 12997 5797 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 83 87 SW 3 6 15906 14224 7024 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 84 88 SW 4 8 16407 14708 7508 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 85 89 SW 4 8 16880 15180 7980 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 86 89 SW 4 8 16880 15180 7980 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 85 87 WSW 5 9 15906 14224 7024 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 84 85 WSW 5 9 14850 12997 5797 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 5 9 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 4 8 10076 7945 745 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 74 74 WSW 4 8 7686 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 4 8 6323 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 SW 3 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 SW 3 6 5614 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 SW 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 S 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 S 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 S 2 5 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 E 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 E 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 E 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 ESE 4 8 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 ESE 4 8 8529 7392 192 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 79 82 ESE 4 8 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 82 86 S 5 9 15331 13666 6466 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 85 90 S 5 9 17341 15720 8520 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 87 92 S 5 9 19334 16710 9510 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 88 93 SSW 6 10 19848 17167 9967 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 89 93 SSW 6 10 19848 17167 9967 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 89 92 SSW 6 10 19334 16710 9510 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 89 91 WSW 9 13 18124 16241 9041 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 87 88 WSW 9 13 16407 14708 7508 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 84 84 WSW 9 13 14361 12289 5089 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 81 81 WSW 6 10 12444 9980 2780 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 6 10 9328 7670 470 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 6 10 7686 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 3 6 6323 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SW 3 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 SW 3 6 5274 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 SW 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 S 3 6 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 S 3 6 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 S 3 6 7964 7200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 77 80 S 3 6 11680 9244 2044 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 80 85 SW 14 23 14850 12997 5797 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 83 89 SW 14 23 16880 15180 7980 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 84 90 SW 14 23 17341 15720 8520 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 86 93 SW 14 23 19848 17167 9967 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 87 93 SW 14 23 19848 17167 9967 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 88 92 SW 14 23 19334 16710 9510 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 87 89 WSW 20 31 16880 15180 7980 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 85 86 WSW 20 31 15331 13666 6466 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 20 31 12444 9980 2780 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 20 31 9328 7670 470 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 20 31 7406 7200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 20 31 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 8 12 5274 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 WSW 8 12 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 8 12 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 WSW 8 12 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 8 12 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 8 12 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 9 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 5 9 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 9 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 63 SW 5 9 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 SW 5 9 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 5 9 7112 7200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 71 76 WSW 9 13 8529 7392 192 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 73 80 WSW 9 13 11680 9244 2044 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 75 82 WSW 9 13 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 77 84 WSW 9 13 14361 12289 5089 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 77 83 WSW 9 13 13836 11534 4334 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 77 81 WSW 9 13 12444 9980 2780 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 76 79 W 13 20 10856 8460 1260 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 13 20 7964 7200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 13 20 6323 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 13 20 5614 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 13 20 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 20 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 6 10 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SSW 1 4 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SSW 1 4 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SSW 1 4 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 SSW 1 4 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 SSW 1 4 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 68 SSW 1 4 5274 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 74 WSW 6 10 7686 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 71 78 WSW 6 10 10076 7945 745 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 73 80 WSW 6 10 11680 9244 2044 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 75 82 WSW 6 10 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 77 83 WSW 6 10 13836 11534 4334 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 78 83 WSW 6 10 13836 11534 4334 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 78 81 W 10 16 12444 9980 2780 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 77 78 W 10 16 10076 7945 745 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 16 7964 7200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 16 7112 7200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 10 16 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 10 16 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 W 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 W 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 W 4 8 5075 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 71 W 4 8 6323 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 76 W 8 12 8529 7392 192 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 73 80 W 8 12 11680 9244 2044 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 75 83 W 8 12 13836 11534 4334 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 77 84 W 8 12 14361 12289 5089 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 78 84 W 8 12 14361 12289 5089 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 79 84 W 8 12 14361 12289 5089 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 79 82 W 11 17 13160 10721 3521 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 78 79 W 11 17 10856 8460 1260 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 11 17 8529 7392 192 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 11 17 7406 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 11 17 5951 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 11 17 5075 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]