Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NNW 8 11 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NNW 8 11 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 N 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 N 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 N 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 E 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 37 E 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 41 E 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 48 E 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 53 E 5 9 6111 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 51 58 E 5 9 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 54 61 E 5 9 7507 7200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 56 63 N 3 6 9592 7200 0 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 58 64 N 3 6 10129 7491 291 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 59 63 N 3 6 9592 7200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 59 62 NW 3 6 7957 7200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 58 59 NW 3 6 6911 7200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 57 57 NW 3 6 6479 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 6 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 52 52 NE 3 6 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 3 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 E 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 E 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 E 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 SE 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 SE 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SE 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 3 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 S 3 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 3 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 SW 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 SW 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 SW 4 8 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 55 57 W 6 10 6479 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 56 58 W 6 10 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 57 59 W 6 10 6911 7200 0 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 58 60 W 9 13 7210 7200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 57 58 W 9 13 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 56 57 W 9 13 6479 7200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 19 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 19 6111 7200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 19 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 9 13 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 W 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 W 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 W 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 46 W 5 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 50 W 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 53 W 8 12 6111 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 51 55 W 8 12 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 53 58 W 9 13 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 55 59 W 9 13 6911 7200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 55 58 W 9 13 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 55 57 W 10 16 6479 7200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 54 55 W 10 16 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 16 6111 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 51 51 WNW 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 WNW 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 WNW 8 12 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 WNW 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 WNW 4 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 2 5 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 SW 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 49 SW 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 54 SW 2 8 6166 7200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 54 60 WSW 4 11 7210 7200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 57 64 WSW 4 11 10129 7491 291 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 60 68 WSW 4 11 12046 10593 3393 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 63 70 W 4 13 13628 11632 4432 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 65 71 W 4 13 13831 11977 4777 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 65 69 W 4 13 13424 11120 3920 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 65 67 W 5 14 11705 10074 2874 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 5 14 10678 7919 719 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 14 9592 7200 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 4 12 7507 7200 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 58 58 WNW 4 12 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 4 12 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 2 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NNW 2 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 2 9 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 E 2 6 5991 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 58 E 2 6 6664 7200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 60 65 E 2 6 10678 7919 719 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 64 70 S 4 11 13628 11632 4432 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 67 75 S 4 11 15623 14136 6936 White 23
1 PM Mon 69 77 S 4 11 16031 15451 8251 White 25
2 PM Mon 70 77 WSW 5 14 16031 15451 8251 White 25
3 PM Mon 72 78 WSW 5 14 16234 16234 9034 White 26
4 PM Mon 72 76 WSW 5 14 15828 14731 7531 White 24
5 PM Mon 72 74 W 5 17 15415 13777 6577 White 22
6 PM Mon 71 72 W 5 17 14284 12961 5761 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 5 17 13424 11120 3920 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 13 11212 9484 2284 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 5 13 9592 7200 0 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 5 13 6911 7200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 3 10 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 WSW 3 10 6111 7200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 51 51 WSW 3 10 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 WSW 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 WSW 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 2 8 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 2 6 5604 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 55 SW 3 9 6221 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 58 61 SW 3 9 7507 7200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 62 67 SW 3 9 11705 10074 2874 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 66 72 SW 5 14 14284 12961 5761 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 69 76 SW 5 14 15828 14731 7531 White 24
1 PM Tue 71 78 SW 5 14 16234 16234 9034 White 26
2 PM Tue 72 77 WSW 9 21 16031 15451 8251 White 25
3 PM Tue 73 78 WSW 9 21 16234 16234 9034 White 26
4 PM Tue 73 76 WSW 9 21 15828 14731 7531 White 24
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 10 25 14284 12961 5761 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 25 13424 11120 3920 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 25 11212 9484 2284 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 23 9592 7200 0 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 23 7210 7200 0 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 10 23 6479 7200 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]