Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 35 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 37 SW 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 39 SW 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 41 SW 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 12 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 13 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 13 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 13 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 10 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 9 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 9 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 9 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 44 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 47 W 3 5663 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 51 W 3 7087 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 51 54 W 3 7625 7200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 53 56 W 5 7968 7444 244 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 55 57 W 5 8139 7615 415 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 56 57 W 5 8139 7615 415 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 7797 7273 73 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 7453 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 6301 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 W 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 2 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 SW 3 5663 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 W 6 7453 7200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 54 56 W 6 7968 7444 244 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 56 58 W 6 8506 7785 585 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 58 60 W 6 9285 8126 926 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 59 60 W 6 9285 8126 926 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 58 59 W 6 8898 7956 756 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 8139 7615 415 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 3 7625 7200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 3 7087 7200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 3 5984 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 N 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 NE 6 5663 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 NE 6 7087 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 51 54 NE 6 7625 7200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 53 55 NE 6 7797 7273 73 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 54 56 NE 6 7968 7444 244 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 54 55 NE 6 7797 7273 73 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 8 7281 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 8 6616 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 8 5663 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 NE 8 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 8 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 8 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 E 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 E 6 6301 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 51 E 6 7087 7200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 51 52 E 6 7281 7200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 52 53 E 6 7453 7200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 53 53 E 6 7453 7200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 7281 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 6616 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 5984 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 E 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 SE 3 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 50 S 6 6616 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 54 S 6 7625 7200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 53 56 S 6 7968 7444 244 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 55 58 S 6 8506 7785 585 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 56 58 S 6 8506 7785 585 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 56 57 S 6 8139 7615 415 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 7968 7444 244 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 7 7453 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 6616 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 7 5663 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 7 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 5587 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]