Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 6 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SW 6 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 5 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 8 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 WSW 8 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 WSW 8 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 69 WSW 11 17 6107 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 73 WSW 11 17 8328 7722 522 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 71 76 WSW 11 17 11617 8299 1099 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 72 77 WSW 16 24 12092 8693 1493 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 73 77 WSW 16 24 12092 8693 1493 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 74 77 WSW 16 24 12092 8693 1493 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 13 20 8738 7781 581 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 13 20 7953 7200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 13 20 6107 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 9 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 9 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 12 19 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 12 19 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 12 19 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 S 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 S 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 S 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 68 SW 14 23 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 72 SW 14 23 7953 7200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 68 73 SW 14 23 8328 7722 522 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 69 72 SW 18 27 7953 7200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 68 71 SW 18 27 7787 7200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 18 27 6107 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 19 29 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 19 29 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 19 29 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 13 20 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 10 16 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 4 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 W 4 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 W 4 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 51 W 5 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 55 W 5 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 57 W 5 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 59 WNW 5 14 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 59 WNW 5 14 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 58 WNW 5 14 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 56 WNW 4 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 4 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 4 13 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 4 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 4 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 4 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 NNE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NNE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NNE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 ENE 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 51 ENE 5 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 58 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 63 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 66 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 67 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 67 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 67 E 5 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 64 NNE 3 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 3 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NNE 3 11 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 E 3 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 E 3 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 65 SE 3 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 69 SE 3 8 6107 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 71 SE 3 8 7787 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 67 72 W 4 11 7953 7200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 68 72 W 4 11 7953 7200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 67 70 W 4 11 7724 7200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 66 67 WNW 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 WNW 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 2 8 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 3 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 ENE 3 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 ENE 3 6 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 65 E 4 10 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 69 E 4 10 6107 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 71 E 4 10 7787 7200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 67 71 ENE 5 13 7787 7200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 68 71 ENE 5 13 7787 7200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 68 70 ENE 5 13 7724 7200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 67 68 N 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 N 4 12 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 9 5303 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]