Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260615/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NNE 4 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 4 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 8 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 8 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 8 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 9 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 NNE 9 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 9 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 NE 6 9 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 75 78 NE 6 9 7665 6103 293 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 78 83 NE 6 9 9303 8269 2459 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 80 87 SSW 3 4 14895 9592 3782 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 81 89 SSW 3 4 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 81 90 SSW 3 4 15469 13045 7235 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 81 89 WSW 8 10 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 82 89 WSW 8 10 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 82 87 WSW 8 10 14895 9592 3782 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 82 85 WNW 6 9 9924 9173 3363 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 83 85 WNW 6 9 9924 9173 3363 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 6 9 9131 7637 1827 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 79 79 NNW 8 10 7973 6577 767 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 76 76 NNW 8 10 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 75 75 NNW 8 10 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 75 75 N 5 6 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 N 5 6 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 75 75 N 5 6 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 74 74 NNE 6 9 5768 5810 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 74 74 NNE 6 9 5768 5810 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 73 73 NNE 6 9 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 NNE 5 6 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 NNE 5 6 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 NNE 5 6 3978 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 SE 2 3 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 76 79 SE 2 3 7973 6577 767 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 79 83 SE 2 3 9303 8269 2459 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 79 86 SW 5 6 12685 9282 3472 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 80 88 SW 5 6 15261 9879 4069 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 81 89 SW 5 6 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 81 89 SW 8 10 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 82 89 SW 8 10 15365 12559 6749 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 83 88 SW 8 10 15261 9879 4069 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 82 85 WSW 6 9 9924 9173 3363 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 81 82 WSW 6 9 9186 7942 2132 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 6 9 8432 7313 1503 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 6 9 7355 5810 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 9 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 9 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 NW 2 3 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 NW 2 3 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 NW 2 3 3978 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 NNE 4 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 NNE 4 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 4 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 73 E 4 5 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 76 E 4 5 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 75 80 E 4 5 8432 7313 1503 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 83 SSW 5 6 9303 8269 2459 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 77 85 SSW 5 6 9924 9173 3363 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 78 87 SSW 5 6 14895 9592 3782 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 79 87 SW 9 11 14895 9592 3782 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 80 87 SW 9 11 14895 9592 3782 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 81 86 SW 9 11 12685 9282 3472 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 81 84 WSW 6 9 9635 9124 3314 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 80 82 WSW 6 9 9186 7942 2132 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 6 9 7665 6103 293 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 5 6 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 5 6 5768 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 5 6 3978 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 NW 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 NW 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 NW 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 1 1 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 NNE 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NNE 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NNE 2 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 ENE 3 4 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 74 ENE 3 4 5768 5810 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 73 77 ENE 3 4 7355 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 74 80 S 5 6 8432 7313 1503 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 75 82 S 5 6 9186 7942 2132 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 76 84 S 5 6 9635 9124 3314 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 76 83 SW 8 10 9303 8269 2459 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 77 83 SW 8 10 9303 8269 2459 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 77 82 SW 8 10 9186 7942 2132 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 77 80 WSW 5 11 8432 7313 1503 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 75 76 WSW 5 11 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 5 11 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 4 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 4 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 4 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 NW 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NW 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 NW 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 0 2 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 N 0 2 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 N 0 2 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NE 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 NE 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 SE 2 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SE 2 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 SE 2 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 72 S 5 11 3978 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 75 S 5 11 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 69 76 S 5 11 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 8 13 7355 5810 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 71 77 SSW 8 13 7355 5810 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 71 75 SSW 8 13 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 71 74 SW 5 11 5768 5810 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 70 71 SW 5 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 5 11 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 5 13 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 5 13 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 5 13 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 NW 2 6 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NW 2 6 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 NW 2 6 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 N 0 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 0 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 0 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 N 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 N 1 3 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 ESE 1 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 ESE 1 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 69 ESE 1 5 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 73 SSW 4 10 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 75 SSW 4 10 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 69 77 SSW 4 10 7355 5810 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 69 76 SW 6 12 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 70 76 SW 6 12 6609 5810 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 70 75 SW 6 12 6111 5810 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 70 73 WSW 5 12 4926 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 70 WSW 5 12 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 5 12 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 4 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 4 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 W 4 10 3454 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]