Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 NE 5 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 NNE 8 11 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 NNE 8 11 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 NNE 8 11 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 79 ENE 6 9 4525 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 83 ENE 6 9 6544 5810 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 82 87 ENE 6 9 14939 7503 1693 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 85 92 S 6 9 15671 15182 9372 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 86 94 S 6 9 15964 15473 9663 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 86 95 S 6 9 16110 15619 9809 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 87 95 SSW 8 11 16110 15619 9809 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 87 94 SSW 8 11 15964 15473 9663 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 87 93 SSW 8 11 15818 15327 9517 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 85 89 SSW 5 8 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 84 86 SSW 5 8 10199 6458 648 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 81 81 SSW 5 8 5288 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 76 76 N 2 3 3795 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 N 2 3 3304 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 N 2 3 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NE 4 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 NE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 NE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 NE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 74 E 4 5 3304 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 80 E 4 5 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 83 E 4 5 6544 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 79 85 S 8 11 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 81 89 S 8 11 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 81 89 S 8 11 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 82 90 SSW 9 12 15378 14831 9021 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 82 89 SSW 9 12 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 82 87 SSW 9 12 14939 7503 1693 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 81 84 SW 8 10 7546 5810 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 79 80 SW 8 10 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 10 3795 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 NE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 NE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 E 8 10 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 69 E 8 10 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 73 E 8 10 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 74 SE 5 9 3304 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 77 SE 5 9 4039 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 80 SE 5 9 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 75 81 S 5 8 5288 5810 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 75 80 S 5 8 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 74 78 S 5 8 4283 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 75 S 5 8 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 71 S 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 S 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 1 1 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 66 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 70 ESE 4 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 73 SE 5 8 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 76 SE 5 8 3795 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 71 79 SE 5 8 4525 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 80 SE 5 8 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 80 SE 5 8 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 73 78 SE 5 8 4283 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 75 SSW 6 9 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 72 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 6 9 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NE 1 2 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 ENE 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 ENE 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 75 ENE 3 4 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 80 S 2 3 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 83 S 2 3 6544 5810 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 77 85 S 2 3 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 78 85 S 2 3 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 79 85 S 2 3 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 79 84 S 2 3 7546 5810 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 78 81 W 3 5 5288 5810 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 3 5 4283 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 3 5 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 3 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 3 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 3 5 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 N 3 4 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 NNE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 NNE 5 6 3094 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 NNE 5 6 3550 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 NNE 5 6 4771 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 85 NNE 5 6 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 83 89 ENE 3 5 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 85 92 ENE 3 5 15671 15182 9372 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 86 93 ENE 3 5 15818 15327 9517 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 86 93 ENE 3 5 15818 15327 9517 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 87 93 ENE 3 5 15818 15327 9517 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 87 92 ENE 3 5 15671 15182 9372 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 86 89 WNW 3 4 15232 10098 4288 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 84 85 WNW 3 4 8151 5810 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 81 81 WNW 3 4 5288 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 3 4 4283 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 3 4 3795 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 75 75 WNW 3 4 3550 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]