Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250707/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 NE 5 9 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 9 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 NE 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NE 6 10 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 5 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 NE 5 10 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 SE 3 4 6622 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 71 73 SE 3 4 8651 7272 1462 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 74 78 SE 3 4 9692 8742 2932 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 75 81 S 6 11 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 77 85 S 6 11 12837 11442 5632 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 77 85 S 6 11 12837 11442 5632 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 78 86 SSW 9 14 13586 11970 6160 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 79 86 SSW 9 14 13586 11970 6160 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 79 85 SSW 9 14 12837 11442 5632 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 78 82 SSW 8 12 11560 9947 4137 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 77 79 SSW 8 12 10009 8991 3181 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 8 12 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 2 4 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 68 68 WNW 2 4 5757 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 4 8 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 4 8 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 4 8 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 8 12 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 8 12 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 8 12 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 E 8 12 5757 5810 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 69 71 E 8 12 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 70 74 E 8 12 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 72 78 S 10 16 9692 8742 2932 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 72 80 S 10 16 10437 9326 3516 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 73 81 S 10 16 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 73 81 S 10 16 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 74 81 S 10 16 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 74 79 S 10 16 10009 8991 3181 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 73 76 SSW 8 12 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 72 74 SSW 8 12 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 8 12 7326 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 2 4 5757 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 WNW 2 4 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 4 6 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 4 6 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 4 6 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 9 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 9 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 9 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 N 4 6 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 N 4 6 5757 5810 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 68 72 N 4 6 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 70 76 WSW 5 8 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 72 80 WSW 5 8 10437 9326 3516 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 74 82 WSW 5 8 11560 9947 4137 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 75 83 W 8 12 12094 10332 4522 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 76 83 W 8 12 12094 10332 4522 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 76 82 W 8 12 11560 9947 4137 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 76 80 W 9 14 10437 9326 3516 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 75 77 W 9 14 9375 8689 2879 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 14 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 8 13 8651 7272 1462 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 71 71 WNW 8 13 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 8 13 6622 5810 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 68 68 NNW 6 11 5757 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NNW 6 11 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NNW 6 11 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 6 10 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 N 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 N 6 10 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 NNE 6 11 4106 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 NNE 6 11 4758 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NNE 6 11 6622 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 71 72 N 6 10 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 74 76 N 6 10 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 77 81 N 6 10 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 79 85 SW 6 11 12837 11442 5632 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 80 88 SW 6 11 15089 12784 6974 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 81 90 SW 6 11 17109 14076 8266 White 23
2 PM Thu 82 90 WSW 8 12 17109 14076 8266 White 23
3 PM Thu 82 89 WSW 8 12 15838 13379 7569 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 82 88 WSW 8 12 15089 12784 6974 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 82 86 W 6 11 13586 11970 6160 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 81 83 W 6 11 12094 10332 4522 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 6 11 10437 9326 3516 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 78 78 W 6 11 9692 8742 2932 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 6 11 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 6 11 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 72 72 NW 6 10 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 NW 6 10 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 72 72 NW 6 10 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 72 72 NW 6 10 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 71 71 NW 6 10 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 71 71 NW 6 10 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 71 71 NNE 6 11 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 72 72 NNE 6 11 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 73 73 NNE 6 11 8651 7272 1462 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 75 76 NNE 6 11 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 77 79 NNE 6 11 10009 8991 3181 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 80 84 NNE 6 11 12595 10896 5086 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 82 88 SW 6 10 15089 12784 6974 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 83 91 SW 6 10 17311 14826 9016 White 24
1 PM Fri 84 93 SW 6 10 17712 16372 10562 White 26
2 PM Fri 85 93 SW 6 10 17712 16372 10562 White 26
3 PM Fri 85 92 SW 6 10 17512 15573 9763 White 25
4 PM Fri 85 91 SW 6 10 17311 14826 9016 White 24
5 PM Fri 85 89 W 9 13 15838 13379 7569 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 83 85 W 9 13 12837 11442 5632 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 13 11008 9646 3836 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 9 13 10009 8991 3181 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 13 9375 8689 2879 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 9 13 8765 8541 2731 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 5 9 8651 7272 1462 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 NNW 5 9 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 72 72 NNW 5 9 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 72 72 NNW 5 9 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 5 9 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 5 9 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 71 71 NNE 6 11 8013 5810 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 72 72 NNE 6 11 8563 6583 773 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 73 73 NNE 6 11 8651 7272 1462 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 74 75 NNE 6 11 8765 8541 2731 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 76 78 NNE 6 11 9692 8742 2932 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 79 83 NNE 6 11 12094 10332 4522 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 81 87 SSW 8 12 14288 12482 6672 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 82 90 SSW 8 12 17109 14076 8266 White 23
1 PM Sat 83 91 SSW 8 12 17311 14826 9016 White 24
2 PM Sat 84 92 SSW 8 12 17512 15573 9763 White 25
3 PM Sat 84 91 SSW 8 12 17311 14826 9016 White 24
4 PM Sat 84 90 SSW 8 12 17109 14076 8266 White 23
5 PM Sat 83 86 WSW 8 13 13586 11970 6160 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 82 84 WSW 8 13 12595 10896 5086 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 80 80 WSW 8 13 10437 9326 3516 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 8 13 9692 8742 2932 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 8 13 9037 8645 2835 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 8 13 8695 7941 2131 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]