Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 W 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 W 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 W 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 74 W 8 12 4875 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 76 W 8 12 7738 5810 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 72 78 W 8 12 8077 6437 627 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 72 78 W 11 17 8077 6437 627 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 73 78 W 11 17 8077 6437 627 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 73 76 W 11 17 7738 5810 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 72 74 WNW 11 17 4875 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 71 71 WNW 11 17 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 11 17 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 NNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 NW 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 WNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 WNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 W 9 16 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 W 9 16 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 W 9 16 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 64 WSW 11 18 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 65 WSW 11 18 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 66 WSW 11 18 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 66 WSW 13 21 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 65 WSW 13 21 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 64 WSW 13 21 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 60 W 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 20 32 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 WNW 20 32 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 WNW 20 32 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NW 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NW 19 29 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 16 25 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 NNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 NNW 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 W 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 61 W 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 64 W 5 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 65 W 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 66 W 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 64 W 8 12 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 63 W 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 1 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 1 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 1 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 WNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 W 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 W 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NW 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 NW 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 NW 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 67 SW 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 70 SW 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 72 SW 3 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 73 WSW 6 10 4578 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 68 73 WSW 6 10 4578 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 71 WSW 6 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 68 WSW 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 N 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 N 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NNE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 ENE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 65 ENE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 70 S 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 72 S 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 74 S 3 6 4875 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 73 SW 5 11 4578 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 72 SW 5 11 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 71 SW 5 11 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 68 WSW 4 11 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 4 11 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 4 11 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 S 0 1 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 0 1 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 S 0 1 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NNW 1 4 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 2 5 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NE 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 4 9 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 ENE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 ENE 3 6 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 67 SSE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 69 SSE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 71 SSE 4 8 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 72 S 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 72 S 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 70 S 5 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 68 SSW 4 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 4 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 SSW 4 10 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 0 3 4469 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]