Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NNW 2 8 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 2 8 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 6 9 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 6 9 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 6 9 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 9 10 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 9 10 3658 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 9 10 3881 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 ESE 3 5 6453 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 66 ESE 3 5 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 66 69 ESE 3 5 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 68 73 S 8 11 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 68 73 S 8 11 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 69 75 S 8 11 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 70 76 S 10 13 14049 11246 5436 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 70 75 S 10 13 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 71 75 S 10 13 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 70 72 SSW 6 12 10356 9142 3332 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 70 71 SSW 6 12 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 68 68 SSW 6 12 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 11 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 5 11 6874 5810 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 11 6453 5810 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 10 5661 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 6 10 5661 5810 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 6 10 5661 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 10 12 4766 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 10 12 4766 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 10 12 5661 5810 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 9 13 4766 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 9 13 5661 5810 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 9 13 6453 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 65 65 NNE 3 8 7523 6392 582 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 67 68 NNE 3 8 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 70 72 NNE 3 8 10356 9142 3332 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 72 75 SSW 9 12 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 76 SSW 9 12 14049 11246 5436 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 74 78 SSW 9 12 15089 13244 7434 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 74 77 SW 11 14 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 75 78 SW 11 14 15089 13244 7434 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 75 77 SW 11 14 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 75 77 W 11 17 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 74 75 W 11 17 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 11 17 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 13 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 13 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 6 13 7961 7377 1567 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 6 9 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NNW 6 9 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 66 66 NNW 6 9 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 4 10 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 65 65 N 4 10 7523 6392 582 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 64 64 N 4 10 7392 5810 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 9 7392 5810 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 9 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 68 68 N 6 9 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 70 71 NNE 5 9 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 74 77 NNE 5 9 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 77 82 NNE 5 9 17042 15472 9662 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 80 87 WSW 5 10 19251 17977 12167 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 81 89 WSW 5 10 19985 18659 12849 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 82 91 WSW 5 10 20484 19481 13671 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 82 90 SW 9 14 20229 18999 13189 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 83 90 SW 9 14 20229 18999 13189 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 83 88 SW 9 14 19687 18397 12587 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 82 85 WSW 10 16 18523 16912 11102 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 81 83 WSW 10 16 17713 16036 10226 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 10 16 15684 13876 8066 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 8 13 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 13 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 8 13 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 10 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NW 6 10 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 71 71 NW 6 10 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 8 11 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 71 71 N 8 11 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 8 11 9563 7888 2078 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 71 71 NNE 8 11 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 71 71 NNE 8 11 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 73 73 NNE 8 11 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 75 76 ESE 6 11 14049 11246 5436 Blue 16
9 AM Sat 77 80 ESE 6 11 16254 14423 8613 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 80 85 ESE 6 11 18523 16912 11102 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 82 89 S 8 14 19985 18659 12849 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 83 91 S 8 14 20484 19481 13671 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 84 93 S 8 14 20886 20095 14285 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 85 93 SSW 12 19 20886 20095 14285 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 85 92 SSW 12 19 20778 19872 14062 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 85 90 SSW 12 19 20229 18999 13189 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 84 87 WSW 12 20 19251 17977 12167 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 83 85 WSW 12 20 18523 16912 11102 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 80 80 WSW 12 20 16254 14423 8613 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 12 20 15089 13244 7434 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 12 20 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 12 20 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 71 71 NNW 5 8 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 9563 7888 2078 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 8 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 8 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNW 5 8 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 67 67 NNW 5 8 7961 7377 1567 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 67 67 N 5 9 7961 7377 1567 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 9 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 5 9 9563 7888 2078 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 72 73 N 5 9 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 74 77 N 5 9 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 77 82 N 5 9 17042 15472 9662 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 79 86 SSW 10 19 18787 17474 11664 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 80 88 SSW 10 19 19687 18397 12587 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 81 90 SSW 10 19 20229 18999 13189 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 82 90 SSW 10 19 20229 18999 13189 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 82 89 SSW 10 19 19985 18659 12849 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 82 87 SSW 10 19 19251 17977 12167 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 81 84 WSW 11 19 18199 16584 10774 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 80 82 WSW 11 19 17042 15472 9662 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 77 77 WSW 11 19 14566 12310 6500 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 11 19 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 11 19 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 11 19 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 8 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NNW 5 8 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 68 68 NNW 5 8 8618 7512 1702 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 5 8 7961 7377 1567 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 5 8 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 5 8 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 65 65 NE 5 10 7523 6392 582 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 66 66 NE 5 10 7655 6856 1046 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 67 67 NE 5 10 7961 7377 1567 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 69 70 NE 5 10 9563 7888 2078 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 71 74 NE 5 10 12562 9794 3984 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 74 79 NE 5 10 15684 13876 8066 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 76 83 SSW 9 17 17713 16036 10226 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 78 86 SSW 9 17 18787 17474 11664 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 79 88 SSW 9 17 19687 18397 12587 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 80 88 SSW 9 17 19687 18397 12587 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 80 87 SSW 9 17 19251 17977 12167 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 80 85 SSW 9 17 18523 16912 11102 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 79 82 WSW 10 17 17042 15472 9662 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 78 80 WSW 10 17 16254 14423 8613 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 75 75 WSW 10 17 13476 10273 4463 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 10 17 11497 9520 3710 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 10 17 9839 8542 2732 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 10 17 9227 7643 1833 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]