Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 W 4 5 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NW 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NW 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 W 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 W 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 W 3 4 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 SSW 5 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 SSW 5 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 53 SSW 5 6 4619 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 53 SW 6 10 4619 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 SW 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 52 SW 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 SW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 SW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 SW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 SSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SSW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SSW 6 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 6 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 6 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 SW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 SW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 SSW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 41 SSW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 41 41 SSW 12 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 16 21 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 16 21 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 16 21 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 W 13 18 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 10 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 W 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 W 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 W 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 34 WSW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 34 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 34 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 33 W 16 23 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 33 WNW 21 29 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 WNW 21 29 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 21 29 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NW 13 20 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NW 13 20 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NW 13 20 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 NNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 NNW 13 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 39 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 40 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 41 N 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 41 N 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 N 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 41 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NNW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 11 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 WNW 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 NW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]