Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 4652 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 4652 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 4652 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NW 9 4652 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 NW 9 4652 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 NW 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 52 53 NW 10 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 55 57 NW 10 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 55 57 NW 10 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 56 58 NW 10 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 56 58 NW 10 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 56 57 NW 10 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 9 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NW 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 57 57 N 8 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 60 61 N 8 7845 7322 1512 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 62 64 N 7 8599 7828 2018 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 65 68 N 7 10107 8931 3121 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 67 70 N 7 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 67 70 N 6 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 68 70 N 6 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 68 69 N 6 10499 9307 3497 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 67 67 NW 8 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 65 65 NW 8 8984 7996 2186 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 62 62 NW 8 8014 7491 1681 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 57 57 N 8 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 9 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 63 64 N 9 8599 7828 2018 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 66 68 NW 8 10107 8931 3121 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 67 70 NW 8 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 68 71 NW 8 10912 10043 4233 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 69 72 NW 8 11170 10461 4651 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 69 71 NW 8 10912 10043 4233 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 69 70 NW 8 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 67 67 NW 9 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 65 65 NW 9 8984 7996 2186 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 63 63 NW 9 8209 7659 1849 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 7845 7322 1512 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 60 60 NW 9 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 9 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 10 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 N 10 7506 6707 897 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 7506 6707 897 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 12 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 12 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 12 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 57 57 N 12 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 59 59 N 12 7506 6707 897 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 62 63 N 12 8209 7659 1849 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 65 67 N 13 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 67 70 N 13 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 69 72 N 13 11170 10461 4651 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 69 72 N 13 11170 10461 4651 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 69 71 N 13 10912 10043 4233 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 68 69 N 13 10499 9307 3497 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 67 67 N 13 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 13 8599 7828 2018 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 62 62 N 13 8014 7491 1681 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 13 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 13 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 13 7336 6401 591 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 15 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 15 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 15 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 15 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 15 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 54 54 N 15 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 14 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 14 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 14 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 53 53 NE 14 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 55 55 NE 14 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 59 60 NE 14 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 62 64 NE 12 8599 7828 2018 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 65 68 NE 12 10107 8931 3121 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 66 69 NE 12 10499 9307 3497 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 67 70 NE 12 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 68 70 NE 12 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 68 69 NE 12 10499 9307 3497 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 67 67 N 7 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 64 64 N 7 8599 7828 2018 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 60 60 N 7 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 7 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 7 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 7 6737 5810 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 7 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 7 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 7 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 7 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 5128 5810 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 5467 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 55 55 N 6 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 59 60 N 6 7675 7153 1343 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 63 65 N 6 8984 7996 2186 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 65 68 N 6 10107 8931 3121 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 66 70 N 6 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 67 70 N 6 10704 9677 3867 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 67 69 N 6 10499 9307 3497 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 66 67 N 6 9737 8551 2741 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 8984 7996 2186 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 8014 7491 1681 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 7506 6707 897 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 8 7166 6092 282 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 55 55 NW 8 6417 5810 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NW 8 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 54 54 NW 8 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 54 54 NW 8 6106 5810 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 53 53 NW 8 5791 5810 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 8 5128 5810 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]