Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 WNW 6 10 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 6 10 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 6 10 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 6 10 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 6 10 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 3 4 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 3 4 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 3 4 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 3 4 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 3 4 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 3 4 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 42 W 2 3 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 43 W 2 3 5299 5810 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 44 44 W 2 3 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 43 44 NW 5 6 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 44 45 NW 5 6 6075 5810 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 45 46 NW 5 6 6215 5810 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 6 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 6 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 6 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 42 42 NNW 5 6 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 5 6 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 5 6 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NNW 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 6 9 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 6 9 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 9 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 4 5 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 4 5 6356 5810 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 51 53 N 4 5 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 55 58 NNW 3 4 9023 8174 2364 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 57 61 NNW 3 4 9826 8984 3174 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 59 63 NNW 3 4 10339 9517 3707 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 60 64 NNW 4 5 10583 9781 3971 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 61 64 NNW 4 5 10583 9781 3971 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 61 63 NNW 4 5 10339 9517 3707 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 61 62 NNW 6 9 10091 9252 3442 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 59 59 NNW 6 9 9292 8446 2636 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 57 57 NNW 6 9 8752 7907 2097 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 56 56 NNW 5 6 8479 7640 1830 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 5 6 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 5 6 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 9 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 6 9 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 6 9 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 5 6 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 6 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 6 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 12 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 12 6854 6348 538 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 12 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 11 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 56 57 N 6 11 8752 7907 2097 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 60 62 N 6 11 10091 9252 3442 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 64 68 NNW 5 10 11924 10777 4967 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 65 70 NNW 5 10 12481 11292 5482 White 28
1 PM Mon 66 71 NNW 5 10 12688 11869 6059 White 29
2 PM Mon 66 71 W 5 12 12688 11869 6059 White 29
3 PM Mon 66 70 W 5 12 12481 11292 5482 White 28
4 PM Mon 66 69 W 5 12 12273 11017 5207 White 27
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 5 11 11571 10536 4726 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 5 11 10583 9781 3971 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 5 11 9826 8984 3174 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 8 9292 8446 2636 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 8 8752 7907 2097 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 3 8 8205 7373 1563 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 9 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 5 9 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 9 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 11 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 11 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 11 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 11 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 8 11 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 8 11 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 8 13 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 8 13 8752 7907 2097 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 61 63 NNE 8 13 10339 9517 3707 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 64 67 SSE 6 13 11571 10536 4726 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 65 68 SSE 6 13 11924 10777 4967 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 66 70 SSE 6 13 12481 11292 5482 White 28
2 PM Tue 66 70 SSW 9 17 12481 11292 5482 White 28
3 PM Tue 66 69 SSW 9 17 12273 11017 5207 White 27
4 PM Tue 66 68 SSW 9 17 11924 10777 4967 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 65 66 WSW 9 18 11068 10293 4483 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 9 18 10339 9517 3707 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 9 18 9560 8716 2906 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 9 18 9023 8174 2364 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 9 18 8479 7640 1830 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 55 55 WSW 9 18 8205 7373 1563 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 9 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NNW 5 9 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 5 9 7396 6628 818 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 5 9 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 50 50 NNW 5 9 6854 6348 538 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 49 49 NNW 5 9 6636 6209 399 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 8 14 6636 6209 399 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 8 14 6636 6209 399 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 8 14 6636 6209 399 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 8 14 6854 6348 538 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 8 14 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 53 54 WNW 8 14 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 54 55 SW 16 31 8205 7373 1563 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 54 55 SW 16 31 8205 7373 1563 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 54 55 SW 16 31 8205 7373 1563 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 53 54 SW 16 31 7935 7104 1294 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 52 53 SW 16 31 7666 6835 1025 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 50 51 SW 16 31 7125 6488 678 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 19 32 6496 6069 259 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 19 32 6356 5810 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 19 32 6075 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 44 44 WSW 19 32 5726 5810 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 19 32 5299 5810 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 19 32 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 16 28 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 WSW 16 28 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 16 28 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 16 28 4534 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 16 28 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 16 28 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 37 W 13 23 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 39 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 40 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 40 41 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 41 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 40 41 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 W 14 25 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 W 16 27 4012 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]