Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 65 ENE 2 4 4027 4000 0 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 69 64 ENE 1 3 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 69 64 E 1 4 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
3 AM Wed 68 63 E 2 4 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 67 62 E 2 3 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 66 61 ESE 3 5 3903 4000 0 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 65 60 E 5 9 3880 4000 0 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 68 63 ESE 5 9 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
8 AM Wed 69 65 SSE 5 9 4027 4000 0 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 71 69 S 5 9 4227 4078 78 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 6 11 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 73 75 SSW 6 11 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 75 78 SSW 6 11 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 77 81 SSW 8 12 11061 7063 3063 White 33
2 PM Wed 78 81 SSW 9 14 11061 7063 3063 White 33
3 PM Wed 79 81 SSW 10 17 11061 7063 3063 White 33
4 PM Wed 80 80 SSW 10 17 10849 6439 2439 White 32
5 PM Wed 80 78 SW 10 17 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 78 74 SW 9 14 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 76 71 WSW 3 9 4505 4178 178 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 74 69 SSW 2 4 4227 4078 78 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 71 66 S 4 8 4079 4000 0 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 69 64 E 6 11 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 68 63 ENE 8 13 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 67 62 E 9 16 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 67 62 ESE 9 16 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 65 60 SE 9 16 3880 4000 0 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 65 60 ESE 8 13 3880 4000 0 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 65 60 NE 5 10 3880 4000 0 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 64 59 NNE 3 5 3856 4000 0 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 64 59 NNW 2 4 3856 4000 0 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 66 61 W 2 4 3903 4000 0 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 67 63 SW 3 5 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 69 67 SW 4 8 4131 4000 0 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 6 11 4404 4130 130 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 71 72 SSW 9 17 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 73 75 SSW 10 17 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 75 77 SSW 11 17 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 76 78 SW 12 23 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 77 78 SSW 13 23 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 78 77 S 13 23 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 78 76 S 13 14 6159 4988 988 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 77 73 SE 11 14 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 75 70 NE 8 14 4404 4130 130 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 73 68 N 5 12 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 72 67 NNE 6 12 4131 4000 0 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 71 66 NE 9 12 4079 4000 0 Blue 18
11 PM Thu 70 65 NE 10 14 4027 4000 0 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 69 64 NE 9 14 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
1 AM Fri 69 64 NNE 6 14 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
2 AM Fri 68 63 NNE 4 8 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
3 AM Fri 67 62 NNE 4 8 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 67 62 N 4 8 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
5 AM Fri 67 62 N 5 10 3926 4000 0 Blue 14
6 AM Fri 68 63 N 5 10 3950 4000 0 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 69 64 NW 6 10 3976 4000 0 Blue 16
8 AM Fri 70 66 WNW 6 10 4079 4000 0 Blue 18
9 AM Fri 71 69 W 6 10 4227 4078 78 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 72 72 SW 6 10 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 73 75 SSW 6 8 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 74 77 SSW 5 8 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 76 79 SW 5 8 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 77 80 SW 4 4 10849 6439 2439 White 32
3 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 3 4 10849 6439 2439 White 32
4 PM Fri 80 80 WSW 3 4 10849 6439 2439 White 32
5 PM Fri 81 79 WSW 3 4 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
6 PM Fri 80 76 W 3 4 6159 4988 988 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 78 73 W 4 4 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
8 PM Fri 76 71 NNW 3 4 4505 4178 178 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 75 70 NNW 3 4 4404 4130 130 Blue 22
10 PM Fri 74 69 NNW 3 4 4227 4078 78 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 73 68 NNE 2 4 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 NNE 2 4 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
1 AM Sat 73 68 NNE 2 4 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
2 AM Sat 73 68 NE 2 3 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
3 AM Sat 72 67 NE 2 3 4131 4000 0 Blue 19
4 AM Sat 72 67 NE 2 3 4131 4000 0 Blue 19
5 AM Sat 72 67 NE 2 3 4131 4000 0 Blue 19
6 AM Sat 73 68 NE 2 3 4179 4026 26 Blue 20
7 AM Sat 74 69 NE 2 3 4227 4078 78 Blue 21
8 AM Sat 76 72 SSW 2 4 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
9 AM Sat 77 75 SSW 2 4 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
10 AM Sat 79 79 SSW 2 4 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
11 AM Sat 80 82 SW 3 9 11270 7663 3663 White 34
12 Noon Sat 82 85 SW 3 9 11899 11899 7899 White 37
1 PM Sat 83 87 SW 3 9 12312 12312 8312 White 39
2 PM Sat 85 88 WSW 4 12 12518 12518 8518 White 40
3 PM Sat 87 89 WSW 4 12 12723 12723 8723 White 41
4 PM Sat 88 88 WSW 4 12 12518 12518 8518 White 40
5 PM Sat 88 86 W 4 12 12107 12107 8107 White 38
6 PM Sat 87 83 W 4 12 11481 9765 5765 White 35
7 PM Sat 85 80 W 4 12 10849 6439 2439 White 32
8 PM Sat 83 78 WNW 2 8 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
9 PM Sat 81 76 WNW 2 8 6159 4988 988 Blue 28
10 PM Sat 80 75 WNW 2 8 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
11 PM Sat 79 74 NE 2 4 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
12 Midnight Sun 78 73 NE 2 4 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
1 AM Sun 78 73 NE 2 4 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
2 AM Sun 78 73 NE 2 3 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
3 AM Sun 77 72 NE 2 3 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
4 AM Sun 77 72 NE 2 3 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
5 AM Sun 77 72 NE 2 5 4885 4226 226 Blue 24
6 AM Sun 78 73 NE 2 5 4993 4399 399 Blue 25
7 AM Sun 79 74 NE 2 5 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
8 AM Sun 81 77 SSE 2 4 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29
9 AM Sun 83 81 SSE 2 4 11061 7063 3063 White 33
10 AM Sun 85 85 SSE 2 4 11899 11899 7899 White 37
11 AM Sun 87 89 SW 3 9 12723 12723 8723 White 41
12 Noon Sun 89 92 SW 3 9 13338 13338 9338 White 44
1 PM Sun 90 94 SW 3 9 13744 13744 9744 White 46
2 PM Sun 91 94 WSW 4 11 13744 13744 9744 White 46
3 PM Sun 92 94 WSW 4 11 13744 13744 9744 White 46
4 PM Sun 93 93 WSW 4 11 13542 13542 9542 White 45
5 PM Sun 93 91 W 4 12 13134 13134 9134 White 43
6 PM Sun 91 87 W 4 12 12312 12312 8312 White 39
7 PM Sun 89 84 W 4 12 11690 11690 7690 White 36
8 PM Sun 86 81 NW 2 8 11061 7063 3063 White 33
9 PM Sun 84 79 NW 2 8 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
10 PM Sun 83 78 NW 2 8 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
11 PM Sun 82 77 NNE 2 4 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29
12 Midnight Mon 81 76 NNE 2 4 6159 4988 988 Blue 28
1 AM Mon 80 75 NNE 2 4 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
2 AM Mon 80 75 NE 2 3 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
3 AM Mon 79 74 NE 2 3 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
4 AM Mon 79 74 NE 2 3 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
5 AM Mon 79 74 ENE 2 4 5198 4502 502 Blue 26
6 AM Mon 80 75 ENE 2 4 5780 4880 880 Blue 27
7 AM Mon 81 76 ENE 2 4 6159 4988 988 Blue 28
8 AM Mon 83 79 S 2 3 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
9 AM Mon 84 82 S 2 3 11270 7663 3663 White 34
10 AM Mon 86 86 S 2 3 12107 12107 8107 White 38
11 AM Mon 87 88 SW 4 9 12518 12518 8518 White 40
12 Noon Mon 88 91 SW 4 9 13134 13134 9134 White 43
1 PM Mon 90 93 SW 4 9 13542 13542 9542 White 45
2 PM Mon 91 93 WSW 4 11 13542 13542 9542 White 45
3 PM Mon 92 93 WSW 4 11 13542 13542 9542 White 45
4 PM Mon 93 92 WSW 4 11 13338 13338 9338 White 44
5 PM Mon 92 89 W 4 12 12723 12723 8723 White 41
6 PM Mon 90 86 W 4 12 12107 12107 8107 White 38
7 PM Mon 87 82 W 4 12 11270 7663 3663 White 34
8 PM Mon 84 79 NW 3 8 7738 6134 2134 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 83 78 NW 3 8 7146 5750 1750 Blue 30
10 PM Mon 82 77 NW 3 8 6467 5185 1185 Blue 29

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]