Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 79 74 ENE 2 4 3736 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 77 72 NE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 76 71 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 76 71 NE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 70 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 69 E 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 69 E 1 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 68 E 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 67 ESE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 73 SSE 2 5 3517 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 79 S 3 6 4923 4173 173 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 83 83 SSW 3 9 8109 6457 2457 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 84 85 SW 4 11 8914 7817 3817 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 86 87 SW 5 13 11726 8419 4419 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 86 87 WSW 5 14 11726 8419 4419 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 87 87 W 5 14 11726 8419 4419 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 87 85 W 5 14 8914 7817 3817 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 88 84 W 5 14 8471 7737 3737 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 87 82 W 5 13 7837 4914 914 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 84 79 NW 5 12 4923 4173 173 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 82 77 NNW 5 12 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 75 70 N 6 11 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 68 NNE 5 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 68 NE 4 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 NE 3 6 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 67 NE 3 6 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 66 NE 3 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 65 NE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 64 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 63 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 63 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 62 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 63 S 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 69 S 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 75 S 3 8 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 78 SW 4 12 4630 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 80 80 SW 4 12 6471 4382 382 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 81 82 SW 4 12 7837 4914 914 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 83 84 WSW 5 13 8471 7737 3737 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 5 13 8109 6457 2457 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 83 81 WSW 5 13 7742 4623 623 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 84 80 W 5 13 6471 4382 382 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 83 78 W 5 13 4630 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 80 75 W 5 13 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 73 NNW 5 13 3517 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 70 NNW 5 13 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 67 NNW 5 13 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 NNE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 62 NNE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 60 NNE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 59 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 58 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 56 E 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 E 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 E 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 55 S 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 58 S 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 62 S 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 69 WSW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 72 WSW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 73 74 WSW 5 12 3736 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 5 12 3736 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 75 73 WSW 5 12 3517 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 74 70 W 5 14 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 72 67 W 5 14 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 65 W 5 14 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 62 NNW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 61 NNW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 60 NNW 3 8 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 59 ENE 1 2 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 58 ENE 1 2 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 58 ENE 1 2 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 56 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 55 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 54 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 ENE 1 3 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 53 ESE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 57 ESE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 63 ESE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 69 SW 3 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 73 SW 3 9 3517 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 75 SW 3 9 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 76 77 WSW 4 11 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 4 11 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 77 75 WSW 4 11 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 76 72 W 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 73 68 W 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 66 W 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 64 NNE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 62 NNE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 61 NNE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 60 ENE 3 6 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 59 ENE 3 6 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 59 ENE 3 6 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 E 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 62 E 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 68 E 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 72 SW 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 75 SW 4 10 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 76 76 SW 4 10 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 4 12 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 78 77 WSW 4 12 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 78 76 WSW 4 12 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 78 74 WSW 3 10 3736 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 71 WSW 3 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 74 69 WSW 3 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 66 NE 5 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 64 NE 5 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 62 NE 5 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 60 ENE 4 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 59 ENE 4 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 4 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 57 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 57 ENE 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 57 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 57 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 59 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 63 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 68 E 2 5 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 72 SW 3 9 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 75 SW 3 9 3955 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 77 SW 3 9 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 4 11 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 78 77 WSW 4 11 4385 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 78 76 WSW 4 11 4175 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 78 74 WSW 4 10 3736 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 76 71 WSW 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 69 WSW 4 10 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 66 NNE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 64 NNE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 62 NNE 2 4 3497 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]