Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 56 NNE 2 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 55 NE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 55 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 55 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 55 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 55 E 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 E 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 55 E 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 60 SSE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 64 S 2 5 4424 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 71 SSW 4 8 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 73 75 SSW 5 10 9578 7940 3940 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 78 SW 5 11 11497 9527 5527 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 77 81 SW 5 12 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 78 81 WSW 6 13 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 79 81 WSW 6 13 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 80 80 W 6 13 13450 10272 6272 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 78 76 W 5 12 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 79 75 W 5 12 9578 7940 3940 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 77 72 W 5 10 8033 7395 3395 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 73 68 WNW 4 9 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 69 64 NNW 4 8 4424 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 61 N 3 6 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 59 N 2 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 59 NNE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 58 NE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 57 NNE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 56 NE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 56 NE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 ENE 2 3 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 E 2 3 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 56 SE 2 3 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 60 SSW 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 67 SSW 2 5 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 71 71 SW 3 6 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 73 75 SW 5 10 9578 7940 3940 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 75 78 SW 5 10 11497 9527 5527 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 78 82 SW 5 10 14539 12263 8263 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 80 83 WSW 6 12 14876 13183 9183 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 81 83 WSW 6 12 14876 13183 9183 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 6 12 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 81 79 W 5 13 12540 9798 5798 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 80 76 W 5 13 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 79 74 W 5 13 9267 7654 3654 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 77 72 WNW 4 9 8033 7395 3395 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 74 69 WNW 4 9 7410 5742 1742 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 71 66 WNW 4 9 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 68 63 NE 3 5 3986 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 61 NE 3 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 61 NE 3 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 60 NE 2 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 59 NE 2 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 59 NE 2 5 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 59 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 60 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 62 ENE 2 4 3658 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 65 SSE 2 4 4835 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 70 SSE 2 4 7540 6544 2544 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 2 4 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 80 82 SW 4 10 14539 12263 8263 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 83 86 SW 4 10 16726 14694 10694 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 85 89 SW 4 10 18106 16492 12492 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 86 89 WSW 6 12 18106 16492 12492 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 88 90 WSW 6 12 18469 16869 12869 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 89 89 WSW 6 12 18106 16492 12492 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 89 87 W 5 12 16973 15393 11393 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 88 84 W 5 12 15620 13828 9828 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 86 81 W 5 12 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 84 79 WNW 3 8 12540 9798 5798 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 81 76 WNW 3 8 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 77 72 WNW 3 8 8033 7395 3395 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 74 69 NE 4 8 7410 5742 1742 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 NE 4 8 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 72 67 NE 4 8 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 72 67 ENE 3 6 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 3 6 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 70 65 ENE 3 6 4835 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 65 NE 3 5 4835 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 66 NE 3 5 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 73 68 NE 3 5 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 76 72 E 2 6 8033 7395 3395 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 80 78 E 2 6 11497 9527 5527 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 85 85 E 2 6 16182 14367 10367 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 89 91 SW 5 11 18729 17259 13259 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 92 95 SW 5 11 20157 18870 14870 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 94 98 SW 5 11 20852 20023 16023 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 95 98 SW 5 13 20852 20023 16023 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 96 98 SW 5 13 20852 20023 16023 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 96 96 SW 5 13 20410 19357 15357 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 95 93 W 4 12 19587 18336 14336 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 94 90 W 4 12 18469 16869 12869 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 92 87 W 4 12 16973 15393 11393 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 90 85 W 4 12 16182 14367 10367 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 86 81 W 4 12 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 82 77 W 4 12 10366 9165 5165 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 78 73 ENE 4 6 8670 7525 3525 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 76 71 ENE 4 6 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 76 71 ENE 4 6 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 75 70 ENE 4 6 7540 6544 2544 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 74 69 ENE 4 6 7410 5742 1742 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 72 67 ENE 4 6 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 72 67 E 3 6 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 73 68 E 3 6 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 74 69 E 3 6 7410 5742 1742 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 77 73 E 3 6 8670 7525 3525 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 81 79 E 3 6 12540 9798 5798 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 85 85 E 3 6 16182 14367 10367 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 89 91 SW 6 14 18729 17259 13259 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 91 94 SW 6 14 19931 18595 14595 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 93 97 SW 6 14 20745 19759 15759 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 94 97 SW 6 14 20745 19759 15759 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 95 97 SW 6 14 20745 19759 15759 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 96 96 SW 6 14 20410 19357 15357 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 95 93 WSW 5 13 19587 18336 14336 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 93 89 WSW 5 13 18106 16492 12492 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 91 86 WSW 5 13 16726 14694 10694 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 88 83 WSW 5 13 14876 13183 9183 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 85 80 WSW 5 13 13450 10272 6272 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 81 76 WSW 5 13 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 78 73 ENE 2 5 8670 7525 3525 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 76 71 ENE 2 5 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 74 69 ENE 2 5 7410 5742 1742 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 73 68 ENE 2 5 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 72 67 ENE 2 5 6612 4416 416 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 71 66 ENE 2 5 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 71 66 ESE 2 6 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 71 66 ESE 2 6 5779 4000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 73 68 ESE 2 6 6936 4829 829 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 75 71 ESE 2 6 7670 6889 2889 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 78 76 ESE 2 6 9850 8577 4577 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 82 82 ESE 2 6 14539 12263 8263 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 86 88 SW 6 13 17626 15950 11950 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 88 91 SW 6 13 18729 17259 13259 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 90 94 SW 6 13 19931 18595 14595 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 91 94 SW 6 13 19931 18595 14595 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 92 94 SW 6 13 19931 18595 14595 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 92 92 SW 6 13 19133 17873 13873 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 92 90 W 5 13 18469 16869 12869 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 91 87 W 5 13 16973 15393 11393 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 89 84 W 5 13 15620 13828 9828 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 86 81 W 5 13 14015 11219 7219 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 83 78 W 5 13 11497 9527 5527 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 79 74 W 5 13 9267 7654 3654 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]