Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 49 44 NW 1 2 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 44 N 2 2 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 44 NNE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 ENE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 ENE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 45 ENE 2 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 51 E 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 55 W 4 5 3767 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 58 SW 5 6 4639 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 59 WSW 5 8 4774 4086 86 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 63 60 W 5 9 4909 4401 401 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 63 59 WSW 5 8 4774 4086 86 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 62 57 WSW 5 6 4407 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 57 N 3 5 4407 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 55 E 3 5 3767 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 52 E 4 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 51 E 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 50 ENE 4 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 50 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 49 E 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 50 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 49 NE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 49 E 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 49 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 49 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 49 ESE 6 8 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 49 ENE 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 48 ENE 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 48 E 6 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 50 E 5 8 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 54 ESE 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 58 S 6 10 4639 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 59 S 6 10 4774 4086 86 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 60 S 6 10 4909 4401 401 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 63 59 S 8 12 4774 4086 86 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 62 57 S 8 12 4407 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 56 S 8 12 4088 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 54 SSW 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 52 SSW 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 50 SSW 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 48 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 47 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 46 ENE 5 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 45 ENE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 44 ENE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 ENE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 NE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 NE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 40 NE 3 4 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 39 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 38 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 37 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 37 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 39 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 41 NE 3 3 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 44 WSW 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 45 WSW 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 46 WSW 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 47 W 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 47 W 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 46 W 6 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 45 W 9 12 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 43 W 9 12 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 40 W 9 12 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 38 N 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 37 N 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 36 N 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 36 NNE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 35 NNE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 35 NNE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 34 NE 4 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 34 NE 4 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 33 NE 4 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 33 NE 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 32 NE 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 32 NE 5 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 32 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 34 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 37 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 40 SW 5 8 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 42 SW 5 8 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 43 SW 5 8 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 43 SW 8 11 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 42 SW 8 11 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 41 SW 8 11 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 40 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 39 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 37 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 36 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 35 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 35 W 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 35 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 35 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 36 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 36 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 36 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 36 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 36 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 35 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 35 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 35 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 37 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 40 NE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 44 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 46 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 48 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 48 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 48 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 47 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 46 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 44 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 43 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 41 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 40 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 40 NW 4 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 40 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 40 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 40 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 40 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 40 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 39 NE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 39 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 38 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 40 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 4 6 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 45 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 47 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 48 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 48 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 47 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 46 WSW 5 10 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 45 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 44 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 43 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 42 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 41 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 40 WNW 5 9 3645 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 40 ENE 3 5 3645 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]