Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 NE 5 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 NE 5 11 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 47 NE 4 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 NE 5 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 46 NE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 46 NE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 ENE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 NE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 NE 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 50 NNW 0 0 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 54 WSW 3 5 3392 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 57 WSW 5 6 4115 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 58 WSW 5 7 4207 4000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 61 58 WSW 6 8 4207 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 58 WSW 6 8 4207 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 61 57 W 6 9 4115 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 55 W 6 9 3657 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 53 W 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 51 NNW 1 2 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 49 NE 4 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 48 ENE 5 11 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 ENE 5 11 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 44 ENE 5 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 44 ENE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 44 ENE 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 ENE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 ENE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 ENE 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 42 ENE 4 9 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 42 ENE 4 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 42 ENE 5 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 41 ENE 5 11 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 NE 5 10 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 47 ENE 2 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 51 S 2 3 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 54 SSW 4 5 3392 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 55 SSW 6 7 3657 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 54 SSW 7 8 3392 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 53 SSW 7 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 53 SSW 6 8 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 52 SSW 5 7 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 50 SW 4 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 47 ENE 1 2 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 45 NE 6 12 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 44 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 43 NE 7 15 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 NE 7 15 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 43 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 42 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 42 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 41 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 40 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 40 NE 5 12 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 NE 5 12 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 39 NE 5 12 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 42 NE 5 11 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 45 ENE 1 2 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 49 SW 3 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 54 SW 5 6 3392 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 57 SW 6 7 4115 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 58 WSW 6 8 4207 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 61 58 WSW 6 8 4207 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 61 57 WSW 6 7 4115 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 55 WSW 5 7 3657 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 49 WSW 3 6 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 46 NNE 2 4 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 44 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 43 NE 6 14 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 42 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 42 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 42 NE 6 13 3374 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]