Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 45 SE 1 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 45 SE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 44 SE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 44 SE 6 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 51 SE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 57 S 3 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 61 59 SW 5 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 63 62 SW 6 7177 6115 2115 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 64 63 SW 7 7344 6419 2419 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 66 64 W 8 7512 6727 2727 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 66 63 W 8 7344 6419 2419 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 66 62 W 8 7177 6115 2115 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 65 60 W 8 6445 5493 1493 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 63 58 W 6 5827 4873 873 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 61 56 NW 2 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 58 53 SE 2 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 52 SE 7 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 52 SE 7 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 51 E 8 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 50 SE 9 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 50 E 8 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 49 SE 7 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 49 SE 7 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 49 SE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 48 S 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 48 SE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 47 SE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 48 SE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 55 SE 3 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 65 62 S 3 7177 6115 2115 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 67 65 SW 3 7680 7158 3158 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 69 68 SW 3 8205 7659 3659 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 71 70 SW 3 8968 7991 3991 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 73 72 SW 6 9712 8531 4531 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 73 71 SW 6 9342 8157 4157 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 73 69 SW 6 8589 7825 3825 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 72 67 W 3 8014 7492 3492 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 70 65 W 3 7680 7158 3158 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 66 61 W 3 6776 5808 1808 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 64 59 NE 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 62 57 NE 3 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 62 57 NE 3 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 61 56 NE 3 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 60 55 NE 3 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 60 55 NE 3 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 52 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 51 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 52 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 59 NE 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 69 66 NE 3 7847 7325 3325 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 71 69 SW 3 8589 7825 3825 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 73 72 SW 3 9712 8531 4531 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 75 74 SW 3 10479 9276 5276 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 77 76 W 6 10884 10003 6003 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 77 75 W 6 10682 9642 5642 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 77 73 W 6 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 75 70 W 6 8968 7991 3991 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 73 68 W 6 8205 7659 3659 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 69 64 W 6 7512 6727 2727 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 65 60 NE 5 6445 5493 1493 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 64 59 NE 5 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 63 58 NE 5 5827 4873 873 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 62 57 NE 3 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 61 56 NE 3 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 60 55 NE 3 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 58 53 NE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 52 NE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 51 NE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 51 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 59 NE 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 69 65 NE 3 7680 7158 3158 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 71 69 SW 3 8589 7825 3825 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 72 70 SW 3 8968 7991 3991 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 74 73 SW 3 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 76 75 SW 6 10682 9642 5642 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 76 74 SW 6 10479 9276 5276 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 76 72 SW 6 9712 8531 4531 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 75 70 W 5 8968 7991 3991 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 72 67 W 5 8014 7492 3492 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 68 63 W 5 7344 6419 2419 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 65 60 NW 5 6445 5493 1493 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 64 59 NW 5 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 58 NW 5 5827 4873 873 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 62 57 NE 5 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 61 56 NE 5 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 60 55 NE 5 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 59 54 NE 6 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 59 54 NE 6 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 59 54 NE 6 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 57 52 NE 6 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 52 NE 6 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 51 NE 6 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 52 NE 5 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 59 NE 5 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 69 65 NE 5 7680 7158 3158 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 71 68 SW 5 8205 7659 3659 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 71 SW 5 9342 8157 4157 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 75 73 SW 5 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 77 74 SW 6 10479 9276 5276 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 77 74 SW 6 10479 9276 5276 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 77 73 SW 6 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 75 70 W 5 8968 7991 3991 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 73 68 W 5 8205 7659 3659 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 69 64 W 5 7512 6727 2727 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 65 60 NE 3 6445 5493 1493 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 59 NE 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 63 58 NE 3 5827 4873 873 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 62 57 NE 2 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 61 56 NE 2 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 60 55 NE 2 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 59 54 NE 3 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 58 53 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 52 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 51 NE 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 51 E 3 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 59 E 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 69 66 E 3 7847 7325 3325 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 71 69 S 3 8589 7825 3825 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 72 71 S 3 9342 8157 4157 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 74 73 S 3 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 76 74 SW 6 10479 9276 5276 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 76 73 SW 6 10076 8906 4906 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 76 72 SW 6 9712 8531 4531 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 74 69 W 6 8589 7825 3825 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 72 67 W 6 8014 7492 3492 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 67 62 W 6 7177 6115 2115 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 64 59 W 3 6137 5162 1162 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 62 57 W 3 5511 4494 494 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 61 56 W 3 5176 4000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 60 55 NE 2 4884 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 59 54 NE 2 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 59 54 NE 2 4503 4000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 58 53 NE 2 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 52 NE 2 3504 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 52 NE 2 3504 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]