Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 67 N 4 8 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 67 N 3 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 66 NNE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 65 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 65 NNE 3 5 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 66 N 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 66 N 10 13 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 65 NNE 10 13 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 67 N 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 72 N 6 9 4150 4000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 78 76 WNW 4 5 4844 4495 495 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 80 79 WSW 5 8 5105 4840 840 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 81 81 WSW 6 9 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 82 83 WSW 9 12 6934 5264 1264 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 82 82 W 10 13 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 83 82 W 9 12 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 83 81 W 9 12 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 83 79 W 6 9 5105 4840 840 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 81 76 WNW 3 4 4844 4495 495 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 77 72 NE 8 10 4150 4000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 75 70 E 9 12 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 75 70 E 9 12 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 75 70 ENE 9 12 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 75 70 E 8 10 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 74 69 E 4 5 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 69 E 8 10 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 68 ENE 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 68 E 8 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 67 E 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 67 E 10 13 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 67 E 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 66 E 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 68 E 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 73 ESE 6 9 4505 4000 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 79 77 SSE 6 9 4955 4619 619 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 81 80 S 8 10 5295 4950 950 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 81 81 SSW 9 12 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 81 81 SW 11 14 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 13 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 82 81 SW 10 13 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 82 79 WSW 9 12 5105 4840 840 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 81 77 SW 9 12 4955 4619 619 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 78 73 W 8 10 4505 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 75 70 NW 5 8 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 73 68 N 6 9 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 73 68 NE 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 68 E 9 12 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 68 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 67 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 65 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 64 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 64 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 64 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 64 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 63 NE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 64 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 67 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 71 ENE 2 4 3926 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 76 75 SW 3 8 4733 4143 143 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 77 77 SW 3 8 4955 4619 619 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 78 78 SW 3 8 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 3 10 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 79 78 WSW 3 10 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 79 76 WSW 3 10 4844 4495 495 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 78 74 W 3 10 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 76 71 W 3 10 3926 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 73 68 W 3 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 66 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 66 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 66 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 67 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 67 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 66 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 65 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 65 ENE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 65 ENE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 65 ENE 3 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 69 ENE 2 4 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 74 ENE 2 4 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 79 78 SW 3 8 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 81 81 SW 3 8 5859 5041 1041 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 82 82 SW 3 8 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 82 82 WSW 3 10 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 83 82 WSW 3 10 6406 5102 1102 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 83 80 WSW 3 10 5295 4950 950 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 82 78 W 4 10 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 79 74 W 4 10 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 76 71 W 4 10 3926 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 73 68 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 67 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 67 NNE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 67 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 67 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 66 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 66 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 66 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 66 NE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 68 ENE 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 71 ENE 2 4 3926 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 76 74 SW 3 8 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 77 76 SW 3 8 4844 4495 495 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 78 78 SW 3 8 5044 4729 729 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 78 77 SW 3 10 4955 4619 619 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 79 77 SW 3 10 4955 4619 619 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 79 76 SW 3 10 4844 4495 495 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 79 75 WSW 4 10 4733 4143 143 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 77 72 WSW 4 10 4150 4000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 74 69 WSW 4 10 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 66 NNE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 65 NNE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 66 NNE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 NE 2 2 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 66 NE 2 2 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 65 NE 2 2 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 65 ENE 1 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 65 ENE 1 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 64 ENE 1 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 64 ENE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 64 ENE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 ENE 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 65 E 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 67 E 2 3 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 70 E 2 3 3850 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 74 72 SW 3 8 4150 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 75 74 SW 3 8 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 76 75 SW 3 8 4733 4143 143 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 77 75 SW 3 10 4733 4143 143 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 77 75 SW 3 10 4733 4143 143 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 77 74 SW 3 10 4622 4000 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 76 72 W 3 10 4150 4000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 74 69 W 3 10 3773 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 66 W 3 10 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 64 N 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 63 N 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 64 N 2 4 2621 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]