Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 48 43 NE 2 3 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 42 NE 2 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 NE 2 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 NE 2 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 40 NE 1 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 40 N 1 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 ENE 1 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 40 ENE 1 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 41 ENE 1 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 44 S 2 4 3290 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 48 SW 3 6 5373 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 53 50 WSW 5 9 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 54 51 WSW 5 11 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 55 52 WSW 5 11 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 56 52 W 5 12 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 56 51 W 5 11 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 56 51 W 5 11 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 55 50 WNW 5 10 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 55 50 WNW 4 9 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 54 49 WNW 2 6 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 52 47 NW 2 4 4871 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 45 ENE 2 3 3576 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 45 NE 2 3 3576 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 43 ENE 2 3 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 ENE 2 3 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 E 2 3 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 3 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 4 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 4 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 4 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 4 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 43 NE 2 4 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 46 NE 2 4 3861 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 50 NE 2 4 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 57 56 SW 5 9 7145 6499 2499 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 59 58 SW 5 9 7679 6850 2850 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 61 61 SW 5 9 8481 7645 3645 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 62 61 WSW 5 10 8481 7645 3645 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 63 61 WSW 5 10 8481 7645 3645 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 63 60 WSW 5 10 8210 7381 3381 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 63 59 W 5 9 7943 7116 3116 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 61 56 W 5 9 7145 6499 2499 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 59 54 W 5 9 6650 6223 2223 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 57 52 N 2 4 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 51 N 2 4 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 55 50 N 2 4 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 55 50 NE 2 5 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 55 50 NE 2 5 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 55 50 NE 3 6 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 58 54 NE 3 6 6650 6223 2223 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 61 59 NE 3 6 7943 7116 3116 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 65 64 WSW 4 8 9283 8440 4440 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 68 68 WSW 4 8 10318 9498 5498 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 70 71 WSW 4 8 11038 10266 6266 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 71 71 W 5 10 11038 10266 6266 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 72 71 W 5 10 11038 10266 6266 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 72 69 W 5 10 10559 9758 5758 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 71 67 W 4 8 10072 9235 5235 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 69 64 W 4 8 9283 8440 4440 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 66 61 W 4 8 8481 7645 3645 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 63 58 NNE 2 5 7679 6850 2850 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 62 57 NNE 2 5 7412 6637 2637 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 61 56 NNE 2 5 7145 6499 2499 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 60 55 NE 3 5 6877 6361 2361 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 59 54 NE 3 5 6650 6223 2223 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 5 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 6 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 6 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 6 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 58 53 NE 3 6 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 57 52 NE 3 6 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 57 52 NE 3 6 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 58 53 NE 4 8 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 62 58 NE 4 8 7679 6850 2850 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 66 63 NE 4 8 9017 8171 4171 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 70 69 SW 4 6 10559 9758 5758 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 72 72 SW 4 6 11397 10505 6505 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 73 73 SW 4 6 11888 10744 6744 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 73 72 WSW 5 10 11397 10505 6505 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 74 72 WSW 5 10 11397 10505 6505 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 74 71 WSW 5 10 11038 10266 6266 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 73 68 W 4 8 10318 9498 5498 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 71 66 W 4 8 9810 8972 4972 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 68 63 W 4 8 9017 8171 4171 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 65 60 NNE 2 5 8210 7381 3381 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 63 58 NNE 2 5 7679 6850 2850 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 61 56 NNE 2 5 7145 6499 2499 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 60 55 NE 3 5 6877 6361 2361 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 59 54 NE 3 5 6650 6223 2223 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 59 54 NE 3 5 6650 6223 2223 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 53 NE 2 5 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 57 52 NE 2 5 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 56 51 NE 2 5 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 56 51 NE 2 5 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 56 51 NE 2 5 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 56 51 NE 2 5 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 57 52 ENE 3 6 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 60 56 ENE 3 6 7145 6499 2499 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 63 60 ENE 3 6 8210 7381 3381 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 66 65 SW 6 11 9547 8706 4706 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 67 67 SW 6 11 10072 9235 5235 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 68 68 SW 6 11 10318 9498 5498 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 68 67 SW 6 14 10072 9235 5235 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 68 66 SW 6 14 9810 8972 4972 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 68 65 SW 6 14 9547 8706 4706 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 67 62 W 6 12 8750 7908 3908 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 65 60 W 6 12 8210 7381 3381 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 62 57 W 6 12 7412 6637 2637 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 60 55 WNW 4 9 6877 6361 2361 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 58 53 WNW 4 9 6511 6085 2085 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 57 52 WNW 4 9 6373 5767 1767 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 56 51 NNE 2 5 6234 5352 1352 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 55 50 NNE 2 5 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 55 50 NNE 2 5 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 54 49 NNE 2 5 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 53 48 NNE 2 5 5373 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 52 47 NNE 2 5 4871 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 46 WSW 2 5 3861 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 WSW 2 5 3576 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 WSW 2 5 3290 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 WSW 3 8 3290 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 44 WSW 3 8 3290 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 45 WSW 3 8 3576 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 47 WSW 9 13 4871 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 49 WSW 9 13 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 52 49 WSW 9 13 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 53 50 W 8 16 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 53 49 W 8 16 5794 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 54 50 W 8 16 6095 4818 818 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 53 48 W 8 14 5373 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 52 47 W 8 14 4871 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 45 W 8 14 3576 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 43 NW 5 10 3001 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 42 NW 5 10 2867 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 42 NW 5 10 2867 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]