Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250707/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 6 11 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 6 11 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 6 11 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 70 E 6 10 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 70 73 E 6 10 9127 8657 1757 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 72 76 E 6 10 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 73 79 ESE 6 10 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 76 84 ESE 6 10 14594 12621 5721 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 78 86 ESE 6 10 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 79 86 SE 8 13 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 80 86 SE 8 13 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 80 85 SE 8 13 15389 12916 6016 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 78 82 WSW 8 12 13108 11623 4723 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 77 79 WSW 8 12 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 75 75 WSW 8 12 9775 8791 1891 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 73 73 NNW 1 2 9127 8657 1757 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 1 2 8706 8111 1211 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 70 70 NNW 1 2 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 68 68 E 8 12 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 E 8 12 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 66 66 E 8 12 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 65 65 E 9 14 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 E 9 14 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 9 14 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 12 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 E 8 12 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 12 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 ESE 6 10 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 66 68 ESE 6 10 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 67 71 ESE 6 10 8706 8111 1211 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 68 74 ESE 11 18 9467 8701 1801 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 69 77 ESE 11 18 10611 9422 2522 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 71 79 ESE 11 18 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 72 80 SE 12 19 12268 10514 3614 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 73 80 SE 12 19 12268 10514 3614 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 73 78 SE 12 19 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 73 76 SE 10 16 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 72 74 SE 10 16 9467 8701 1801 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 70 70 SE 10 16 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 69 69 SSW 3 5 8605 6900 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 67 67 SSW 3 5 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 3 5 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 4 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 2 4 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 4 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NE 4 8 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 4 8 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 NE 4 8 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 4 6 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 4 6 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 4 6 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 E 4 6 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 E 4 6 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 69 E 4 6 8605 6900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 66 72 SW 5 8 8811 8587 1687 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 68 76 SW 5 8 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 70 78 SW 5 8 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 71 79 W 9 14 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 72 79 W 9 14 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 73 78 W 9 14 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 73 76 W 12 20 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 72 74 W 12 20 9467 8701 1801 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 20 8706 8111 1211 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 12 20 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 12 20 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 12 20 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 65 NW 10 16 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NW 10 16 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 16 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NNW 9 14 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 9 14 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 9 14 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 8 13 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 8 13 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 8 13 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 NW 6 11 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 NW 6 11 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 68 72 NW 6 11 8811 8587 1687 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 70 76 WNW 6 10 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 73 81 WNW 6 10 12683 11078 4178 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 75 83 WNW 6 10 13848 12151 5251 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 77 85 W 8 12 15389 12916 6016 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 78 85 W 8 12 15389 12916 6016 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 79 84 W 8 12 14594 12621 5721 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 79 82 W 11 17 13108 11623 4723 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 78 80 W 11 17 12268 10514 3614 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 11 17 10611 9422 2522 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 11 17 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 11 17 9467 8701 1801 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 11 17 8811 8587 1687 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 10 17 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NNW 10 17 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 10 17 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 10 17 5937 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 10 17 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NNW 10 17 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 8 13 4925 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 8 13 4930 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 8 13 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 69 70 NNE 8 13 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 71 73 NNE 8 13 9127 8657 1757 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 74 78 NNE 8 13 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 76 82 SSE 5 9 13108 11623 4723 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 78 86 SSE 5 9 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 81 89 SSE 5 9 17318 15873 8973 White 24
2 PM Fri 82 90 SSE 5 9 17521 17521 10621 White 24
3 PM Fri 83 90 SSE 5 9 17521 17521 10621 White 24
4 PM Fri 83 88 SSE 5 9 17114 15137 8237 White 23
5 PM Fri 83 86 W 9 16 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 82 84 W 9 16 14594 12621 5721 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 16 12683 11078 4178 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 9 16 11734 10061 3161 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 16 10611 9422 2522 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 9 16 9775 8791 1891 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 8 12 9127 8657 1757 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NNW 8 12 8706 8111 1211 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 8 12 8662 7427 527 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 68 68 NNW 8 12 8174 6900 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 67 67 NNW 8 12 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 66 66 NNW 8 12 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 9 6767 6900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 9 7472 6900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 69 69 NE 5 9 8605 6900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 71 72 NE 5 9 8811 8587 1687 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 72 74 NE 5 9 9467 8701 1801 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 74 78 NE 5 9 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 76 82 S 6 11 13108 11623 4723 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 78 86 S 6 11 16126 13651 6751 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 81 89 S 6 11 17318 15873 8973 White 24
2 PM Sat 82 90 S 6 11 17521 17521 10621 White 24
3 PM Sat 83 90 S 6 11 17521 17521 10621 White 24
4 PM Sat 83 88 S 6 11 17114 15137 8237 White 23
5 PM Sat 82 85 W 11 17 15389 12916 6016 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 81 83 W 11 17 13848 12151 5251 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 11 17 12268 10514 3614 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 11 17 11182 9733 2833 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 11 17 10118 9086 2186 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 11 17 9775 8791 1891 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]