Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260911/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 11 17 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 11 17 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 10 16 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 10 16 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 10 16 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 64 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 68 W 9 13 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 71 W 9 13 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 74 W 9 13 7858 6900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 69 75 W 12 19 8160 7682 782 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 12 19 7858 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 70 73 W 12 19 7746 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 68 70 W 11 17 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 11 17 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 11 17 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 WNW 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 WNW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 9 14 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 W 9 14 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 W 9 14 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 57 W 13 21 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 60 W 13 21 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 60 W 13 21 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 59 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 58 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 55 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 18 28 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 18 28 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 18 28 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 16 25 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 17 26 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 17 26 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 17 26 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 12 19 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 12 19 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 12 19 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 44 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 48 NW 8 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 53 W 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 57 W 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 61 W 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 62 W 9 13 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 63 W 9 13 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 62 W 9 13 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 61 W 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 4 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 4 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 4 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 6 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 6 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 6 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 NNW 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 NNW 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 63 S 3 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 67 S 3 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 71 S 3 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 71 S 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 72 S 5 9 6482 6900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 67 70 S 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 68 WSW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 4 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 N 4 5 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 67 SSE 4 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 70 SSE 4 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 72 SSE 4 6 6482 6900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 68 73 S 5 8 7746 6900 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 69 73 S 5 8 7746 6900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 69 72 S 5 8 6482 6900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 68 69 SSW 8 11 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 8 11 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 8 11 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NNW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 3 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 4 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 ENE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 ENE 5 6 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 65 ESE 5 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 68 ESE 5 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 70 ESE 5 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 71 SE 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 71 SE 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 70 SE 6 10 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 68 ESE 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 ESE 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 9 12 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 8 5303 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]