Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NNW 12 17 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NNW 12 17 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 12 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 12 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 12 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 9 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 9 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 N 9 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 46 N 8 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 50 N 8 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 53 N 8 9 5187 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 56 W 6 10 6142 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 54 61 W 6 10 6773 6900 0 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 56 63 W 6 10 7367 6900 0 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 57 64 W 8 14 7695 6900 0 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 58 64 W 8 14 7695 6900 0 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 59 63 W 8 14 7367 6900 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 59 61 W 12 17 6773 6900 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 57 58 W 12 17 6252 6900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 17 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 14 16 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 52 52 WNW 14 16 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 WNW 14 16 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NNW 13 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NNW 13 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 13 14 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 11 11 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 11 11 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 11 11 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 49 NW 9 11 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 52 NW 9 11 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 55 NW 9 11 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 51 55 W 10 14 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 54 59 W 10 14 6396 6900 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 54 59 W 10 14 6396 6900 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 54 58 W 14 18 6252 6900 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 54 57 W 14 18 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 54 56 W 14 18 6142 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 53 55 WNW 18 21 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 52 53 WNW 18 21 5187 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 WNW 18 21 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 18 21 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 18 21 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 W 18 21 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 WNW 13 17 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 WNW 13 17 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 WNW 13 17 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 11 12 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 11 12 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 11 12 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 WNW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 WNW 9 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 W 5 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 48 W 5 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 50 W 5 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 54 WSW 6 10 5825 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 57 WSW 6 10 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 53 60 WSW 6 10 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 54 61 WSW 9 13 6773 6900 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 55 61 WSW 9 13 6773 6900 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 56 60 WSW 9 13 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 56 59 W 12 16 6396 6900 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 55 56 W 12 16 6142 6900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 12 16 5825 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 13 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 10 13 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 10 13 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 WNW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 5 8 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 5 8 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 5 8 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 N 3 5 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 55 N 3 5 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 54 58 N 3 5 6252 6900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 57 63 S 4 8 7367 6900 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 59 67 S 4 8 10398 7654 754 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 61 69 S 4 8 11458 9873 2973 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 63 71 SW 6 10 12201 10841 3941 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 64 71 SW 6 10 12201 10841 3941 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 65 70 SW 6 10 11864 10309 3409 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 65 68 W 10 12 10937 8183 1283 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 10 12 9135 7055 155 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 12 7071 6900 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 12 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 12 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 10 12 5825 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 8 10 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 6 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 56 NNW 5 6 6142 6900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 57 60 NNW 5 6 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 60 65 NNW 5 6 9135 7055 155 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 62 68 SW 6 11 10937 8183 1283 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 65 73 SW 6 11 13717 11792 4892 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 67 75 SW 6 11 14518 13460 6560 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 69 77 SW 6 11 15437 13861 6961 White 23
3 PM Mon 70 77 SW 6 11 15437 13861 6961 White 23
4 PM Mon 70 75 SW 6 11 14518 13460 6560 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 70 73 W 11 14 13717 11792 4892 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 68 69 W 11 14 11458 9873 2973 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 11 14 9931 7348 448 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 11 14 7367 6900 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 11 14 6773 6900 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 11 14 6396 6900 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 6 9 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 WNW 6 9 6087 6900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 6 9 5825 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 WNW 6 9 5187 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 6 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 WNW 6 9 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 WNW 5 8 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 5 8 5144 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 WNW 5 8 5187 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 57 WNW 5 8 6197 6900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 58 60 WNW 5 8 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 61 65 WNW 5 8 9135 7055 155 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 63 68 WSW 10 18 10937 8183 1283 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 65 71 WSW 10 18 12201 10841 3941 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 66 72 WSW 10 18 13515 11357 4457 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 67 73 WSW 10 18 13717 11792 4892 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 68 73 WSW 10 18 13717 11792 4892 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 68 72 WSW 10 18 13515 11357 4457 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 67 69 W 17 20 11458 9873 2973 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 65 66 W 17 20 9931 7348 448 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 17 20 7367 6900 0 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 17 20 6580 6900 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 17 20 6252 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 17 20 6142 6900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]