Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NW 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 W 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 48 W 10 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 48 W 10 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 NW 12 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 12 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NW 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 N 6 6472 6900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 53 55 NW 5 7370 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 55 58 NW 5 7883 7359 459 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 56 59 NW 5 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 58 61 N 7 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 59 61 N 7 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 60 61 N 7 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 8303 7699 799 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 7883 7359 459 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 7 7541 6900 0 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 7370 6900 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 6835 6900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 7 6157 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 7 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 6157 6900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 7 6472 6900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 54 55 N 7 7370 6900 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 56 58 N 8 7883 7359 459 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 58 61 N 8 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 59 62 N 8 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 61 64 N 8 9840 8653 1753 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 62 64 N 8 9840 8653 1753 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 62 63 N 8 9464 8265 1365 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 10 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 10 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 7712 7189 289 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 7370 6900 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 10 6835 6900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 6157 6900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 N 10 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 10 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 5841 6900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 52 53 N 10 6835 6900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 54 56 NE 12 7541 6900 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 55 58 NE 12 7883 7359 459 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 57 60 NE 12 8303 7699 799 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 58 61 NE 12 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 59 61 NE 12 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 60 61 NE 12 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 60 60 NE 10 8303 7699 799 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 59 59 NE 10 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 58 NE 10 7883 7359 459 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 56 56 NE 10 7541 6900 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 10 7199 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 10 6472 6900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 12 5841 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 12 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 12 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 5518 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 6157 6900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 53 54 NE 12 7199 6900 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 55 57 NE 14 7712 7189 289 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 57 59 NE 14 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 59 62 NE 14 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 60 62 NE 14 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 61 63 NE 14 9464 8265 1365 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 62 63 NE 14 9464 8265 1365 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 62 62 E 9 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 61 61 E 9 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 60 60 E 9 8303 7699 799 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 59 59 E 9 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 57 57 E 9 7712 7189 289 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 9 7370 6900 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 7 6835 6900 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 7 6157 6900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 5841 6900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 3 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NW 3 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 3 5841 6900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 6472 6900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 7199 6900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 56 57 NW 3 7712 7189 289 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 58 60 W 5 8303 7699 799 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 60 63 W 5 9464 8265 1365 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 62 65 W 5 10212 9036 2136 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 5 10560 9413 2513 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 5 10212 9036 2136 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 5 9840 8653 1753 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 9082 8038 1138 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 8696 7869 969 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 8053 7529 629 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 7541 6900 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 7199 6900 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 6472 6900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 50 50 N 6 5841 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 6 5175 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 6 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 5010 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 5010 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]