Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 E 9 13 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 13 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 E 10 16 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 E 10 16 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 10 16 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 12 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 E 9 12 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 12 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 E 8 11 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 66 E 8 11 6139 6900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 64 68 E 8 11 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 65 70 ESE 12 18 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 69 75 ESE 12 18 13406 12615 5715 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 70 76 ESE 12 18 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 71 76 SE 12 19 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 72 76 SE 12 19 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 73 76 SE 12 19 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 72 74 SE 9 13 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 71 72 SE 9 13 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 71 71 SE 9 13 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 70 70 E 4 6 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 68 68 E 4 6 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 67 67 E 4 6 6455 6900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 65 65 E 5 9 5740 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 E 5 9 5740 6900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 64 64 E 5 9 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 9 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 9 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 9 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 4 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 4 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 4 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 S 0 0 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 67 69 S 0 0 7757 6900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 68 72 S 0 0 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 69 72 SW 2 3 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SW 2 3 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 75 79 SW 2 3 16988 13664 6764 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 76 80 SW 4 6 18241 13970 7070 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 79 SW 4 6 16988 13664 6764 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 76 78 SW 4 6 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 78 NW 5 9 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 75 76 NW 5 9 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 5 9 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 73 73 NNE 3 5 12900 10141 3241 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 72 72 NNE 3 5 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 71 71 NNE 3 5 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 5 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 NE 3 5 7757 6900 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 68 68 NE 3 5 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 3 5 6139 6900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 65 65 NNE 3 5 5740 6900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 3 5 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 5 8 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 5 8 6139 6900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 5 8 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 70 71 NNE 5 8 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 71 74 NNE 5 8 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 71 75 NNE 5 8 13406 12615 5715 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 72 78 SSW 3 5 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 74 81 SSW 3 5 18590 14285 7385 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 76 83 SSW 3 5 19280 17808 10908 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 79 85 SSW 3 5 19945 18775 11875 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 80 85 SSW 3 5 19945 18775 11875 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 80 84 SSW 3 5 19620 18433 11533 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 80 82 W 5 9 18935 16380 9480 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 79 80 W 5 9 18241 13970 7070 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 9 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 76 76 W 5 9 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 5 9 13406 12615 5715 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 9 12900 10141 3241 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 72 72 NNW 5 6 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NNW 5 6 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 5 6 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 5 6 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 69 69 NNW 5 6 7757 6900 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 68 68 NNW 5 6 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 68 68 NE 3 4 7145 6900 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 70 70 NE 3 4 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 72 72 NE 3 4 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 74 75 NE 3 4 13406 12615 5715 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 75 77 NE 3 4 14033 13031 6131 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 76 80 NE 3 4 18241 13970 7070 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 84 SSE 2 3 19620 18433 11533 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 80 88 SSE 2 3 21633 19782 12882 White 24
1 PM Sat 84 92 SSE 2 3 22394 22085 15185 White 28
2 PM Sat 86 94 SSE 2 3 22771 22771 15871 White 30
3 PM Sat 88 95 SSE 2 3 22959 22959 16059 White 31
4 PM Sat 88 93 SSE 2 3 22582 22432 15532 White 29
5 PM Sat 87 90 W 5 9 22014 21588 14688 White 26
6 PM Sat 86 87 W 5 9 21439 19454 12554 White 23
7 PM Sat 84 84 W 5 9 19620 18433 11533 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 5 9 18935 16380 9480 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 80 80 W 5 9 18241 13970 7070 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 78 78 W 5 9 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 76 76 NNW 5 8 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 NNW 5 8 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 73 73 NNW 5 8 12900 10141 3241 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 72 72 NNW 5 8 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 71 71 NNW 5 8 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 70 70 ENE 4 6 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 72 72 ENE 4 6 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 74 74 ENE 4 6 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 76 77 ENE 4 6 14033 13031 6131 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 77 80 ENE 4 6 18241 13970 7070 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 78 83 ENE 4 6 19280 17808 10908 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 79 85 SE 6 9 19945 18775 11875 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 82 90 SE 6 9 22014 21588 14688 White 26
1 PM Sun 85 93 SE 6 9 22582 22432 15532 White 29
2 PM Sun 87 95 SE 6 9 22959 22959 16059 White 31
3 PM Sun 89 96 SE 6 9 23147 23147 16247 White 32
4 PM Sun 89 94 SE 6 9 22771 22771 15871 White 30
5 PM Sun 89 92 SW 6 9 22394 22085 15185 White 28
6 PM Sun 88 90 SW 6 9 22014 21588 14688 White 26
7 PM Sun 86 86 SW 6 9 21246 19116 12216 White 22
8 PM Sun 84 84 SW 6 9 19620 18433 11533 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 81 81 SW 6 9 18590 14285 7385 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 78 78 SW 6 9 15067 13312 6412 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 76 76 WNW 3 5 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 WNW 3 5 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 74 74 WNW 3 5 13075 12257 5357 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 72 72 WNW 3 5 12690 7712 812 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 71 71 WNW 3 5 12373 7102 202 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 69 69 WNW 3 5 7757 6900 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 69 69 E 3 4 7757 6900 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 70 70 E 3 4 10962 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 73 73 E 3 4 12900 10141 3241 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 75 76 E 3 4 13812 12857 5957 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 76 79 E 3 4 16988 13664 6764 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 77 82 E 3 4 18935 16380 9480 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 78 85 SSE 6 9 19945 18775 11875 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 81 89 SSE 6 9 21824 20521 13621 White 25
1 PM Mon 83 92 SSE 6 9 22394 22085 15185 White 28
2 PM Mon 85 93 SSE 6 9 22582 22432 15532 White 29
3 PM Mon 87 94 SSE 6 9 22771 22771 15871 White 30
4 PM Mon 87 92 SSE 6 9 22394 22085 15185 White 28
5 PM Mon 86 89 SW 8 11 21824 20521 13621 White 25
6 PM Mon 85 87 SW 8 11 21439 19454 12554 White 23
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 8 11 19280 17808 10908 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 81 81 SW 8 11 18590 14285 7385 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 79 79 SW 8 11 16988 13664 6764 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 11 14033 13031 6131 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]