Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 WNW 12 13 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 12 13 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 10 11 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 10 11 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 10 11 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 40 WNW 5 6 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 40 WNW 5 6 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 WNW 5 6 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 40 41 WNW 5 6 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 5 6 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 5 6 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 5 6 6103 6900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 5 6 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 6 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 6 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 4 5 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NNW 3 4 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 3 4 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 NNW 3 4 6668 6900 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 48 51 WNW 4 5 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 50 54 WNW 4 5 8832 7983 1083 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 52 56 WNW 4 5 9376 8529 1629 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 54 58 NW 5 6 9914 9071 2171 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 55 58 NW 5 6 9914 9071 2171 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 56 58 NW 5 6 9914 9071 2171 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 56 57 NNW 5 6 9646 8801 1901 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 5 6 8832 7983 1083 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 5 6 8282 7446 546 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 5 6 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 5 6 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 48 48 NNW 5 6 7192 6900 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 4 5 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 4 5 6668 6900 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 9 6668 6900 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 50 51 N 9 9 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 53 55 N 9 9 9105 8255 1355 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 57 60 NE 5 8 10424 9608 2708 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 59 63 NE 5 8 11159 10383 3483 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 60 65 NE 5 8 12034 10870 3970 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 61 66 ENE 5 9 12379 11112 4212 White 25
3 PM Mon 62 66 ENE 5 9 12379 11112 4212 White 25
4 PM Mon 63 65 ENE 5 9 12034 10870 3970 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 63 64 NNE 8 9 11783 10627 3727 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 61 61 NNE 8 9 10670 9874 2974 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 8 9 10177 9340 2440 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 5 6 9376 8529 1629 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 6 8832 7983 1083 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 6 8282 7446 546 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 8 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 6 8 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 8 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 9 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 9 7192 6900 0 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 9 7192 6900 0 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 9 9 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 9 9 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 9 9 7192 6900 0 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 9 10 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 9 10 8558 7715 815 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 56 57 NNE 9 10 9646 8801 1901 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 60 62 ESE 9 10 10915 10138 3238 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 61 64 ESE 9 10 11783 10627 3727 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 62 65 ESE 9 10 12034 10870 3970 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 63 66 SE 9 13 12379 11112 4212 White 25
3 PM Tue 64 66 SE 9 13 12379 11112 4212 White 25
4 PM Tue 64 66 SE 9 13 12379 11112 4212 White 25
5 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 9 14 11159 10383 3483 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 61 61 SSE 9 14 10670 9874 2974 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 58 58 SSE 9 14 9914 9071 2171 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 56 56 SSE 9 14 9376 8529 1629 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 54 54 SSE 9 14 8832 7983 1083 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 53 53 SSE 9 14 8558 7715 815 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 9 11 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 ENE 9 11 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 9 11 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 9 11 7737 6904 4 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 9 11 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 9 11 7192 6900 0 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 12 14 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 50 51 ESE 12 14 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 51 52 S 20 31 8282 7446 546 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 52 53 S 20 31 8558 7715 815 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 52 53 S 20 31 8558 7715 815 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 51 52 S 20 31 8282 7446 546 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 50 51 S 20 31 8007 7175 275 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 20 31 7465 6900 0 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 47 47 SW 24 32 6918 6900 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 46 46 SW 24 32 6668 6900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 45 45 SW 24 32 6527 6900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 43 43 SW 24 32 6244 6900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 24 32 6244 6900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 42 42 SW 24 32 6103 6900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 42 42 SW 21 26 6103 6900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SW 21 26 5808 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SW 21 26 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 21 26 5376 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SW 21 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 SW 21 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 37 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 18 25 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 20 26 5230 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]