Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 N 6 11 5943 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 79 79 N 6 10 5943 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 78 78 N 6 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 78 78 NNW 6 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 78 78 NNW 5 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 78 78 N 5 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 78 78 NNW 5 10 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 80 80 N 5 10 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 81 82 ENE 5 10 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 84 86 S 6 11 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 87 91 SSW 8 11 14568 11404 5236 White 14
11 AM Wed 90 95 SSW 9 13 15407 15407 9239 White 18
12 Noon Wed 91 95 SW 10 14 15407 15407 9239 White 18
1 PM Wed 91 94 WSW 11 16 15197 15197 9029 White 17
2 PM Wed 93 96 SW 12 17 15614 15614 9446 White 19
3 PM Wed 92 95 WSW 11 17 15407 15407 9239 White 18
4 PM Wed 92 94 WSW 11 17 15197 15197 9029 White 17
5 PM Wed 91 92 WSW 11 17 14778 12703 6535 White 15
6 PM Wed 91 91 WSW 10 16 14568 11404 5236 White 14
7 PM Wed 89 89 WSW 10 16 12861 9298 3130 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 10 14 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 85 85 WSW 10 16 8546 7116 948 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 84 84 W 10 16 8203 6631 463 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 83 83 W 10 16 7837 6168 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 W 10 14 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 80 80 WNW 9 14 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 80 80 NNW 9 13 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 78 78 NNW 9 12 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 78 78 NW 9 12 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 77 77 WNW 9 12 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 WNW 8 11 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 W 8 11 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 81 82 SW 8 11 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 84 86 SW 8 12 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 87 90 WSW 9 13 14357 10618 4450 White 13
11 AM Thu 89 94 WSW 10 14 15197 15197 9029 White 17
12 Noon Thu 91 96 WSW 11 17 15614 15614 9446 White 19
1 PM Thu 92 98 WSW 13 19 16024 16024 9856 White 21
2 PM Thu 93 98 WSW 14 20 16024 16024 9856 White 21
3 PM Thu 93 97 WSW 14 21 15819 15819 9651 White 20
4 PM Thu 92 95 WSW 14 21 15407 15407 9239 White 18
5 PM Thu 91 93 WSW 14 21 14988 13358 7190 White 16
6 PM Thu 90 91 WSW 14 21 14568 11404 5236 White 14
7 PM Thu 88 88 WSW 13 20 11839 8514 2346 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 86 86 WSW 13 20 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 85 85 WSW 13 20 8546 7116 948 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 13 20 7837 6168 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 82 82 WSW 13 20 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 WSW 12 19 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 78 78 WSW 12 18 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 77 77 WSW 11 17 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 76 76 WSW 11 14 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 WSW 10 13 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 WSW 10 13 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 WSW 10 14 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 77 SW 10 14 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 79 80 SW 10 16 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 82 85 SW 11 17 8546 7116 948 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 85 90 SW 12 18 14357 10618 4450 White 13
11 AM Fri 87 94 SW 13 19 15197 15197 9029 White 17
12 Noon Fri 89 97 SW 14 21 15819 15819 9651 White 20
1 PM Fri 90 98 SW 17 24 16024 16024 9856 White 21
2 PM Fri 90 97 SW 18 25 15819 15819 9651 White 20
3 PM Fri 90 96 SW 18 25 15614 15614 9446 White 19
4 PM Fri 90 94 SW 18 25 15197 15197 9029 White 17
5 PM Fri 89 91 SW 18 25 14568 11404 5236 White 14
6 PM Fri 88 89 SW 18 26 12861 9298 3130 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 86 86 WSW 18 26 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 18 27 8203 6631 463 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 82 82 WSW 18 27 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 81 81 WSW 17 27 6650 6168 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 17 27 5943 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 WSW 17 27 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 76 76 WSW 17 26 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 WSW 17 26 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 WSW 17 26 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 SW 18 25 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SW 18 25 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 SW 18 25 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 SW 17 24 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 76 SW 17 24 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 80 SW 17 24 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 80 85 SW 17 24 8546 7116 948 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 82 89 SW 17 24 12861 9298 3130 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 83 91 SW 17 25 14568 11404 5236 White 14
1 PM Sat 84 92 SW 18 25 14778 12703 6535 White 15
2 PM Sat 85 93 SW 18 26 14988 13358 7190 White 16
3 PM Sat 86 92 SW 18 26 14778 12703 6535 White 15
4 PM Sat 86 90 SW 18 26 14357 10618 4450 White 13
5 PM Sat 85 87 SW 18 26 10731 8174 2006 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 83 84 SW 17 26 8203 6631 463 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 16 25 6650 6168 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 14 24 5943 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 13 23 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 13 21 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 13 20 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 WSW 13 20 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 13 19 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 13 19 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 SW 13 19 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SW 12 18 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 SW 12 18 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 SW 12 17 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SSW 11 16 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SSW 11 16 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 78 SSW 11 16 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 78 83 SW 12 16 7837 6168 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 80 87 SW 12 17 10731 8174 2006 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 82 90 SW 12 18 14357 10618 4450 White 13
1 PM Sun 83 91 SW 13 19 14568 11404 5236 White 14
2 PM Sun 84 92 SW 13 20 14778 12703 6535 White 15
3 PM Sun 85 91 SW 13 20 14568 11404 5236 White 14
4 PM Sun 86 90 SW 13 20 14357 10618 4450 White 13
5 PM Sun 86 88 SW 13 19 11839 8514 2346 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 84 85 SW 12 18 8546 7116 948 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 82 82 SW 11 17 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 10 16 5943 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 77 77 SW 10 16 5618 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 10 16 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 SW 10 16 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SW 10 14 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 9 14 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 9 13 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 9 13 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 SW 9 12 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SW 9 12 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 SW 9 11 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 SSW 8 11 5364 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 76 SSW 8 11 5471 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 81 SSW 8 12 6650 6168 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 81 86 S 9 13 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 83 89 S 10 14 12861 9298 3130 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 85 92 SSW 11 16 14778 12703 6535 White 15
1 PM Mon 85 92 SSW 12 18 14778 12703 6535 White 15
2 PM Mon 86 92 SW 13 19 14778 12703 6535 White 15
3 PM Mon 87 92 SW 13 19 14778 12703 6535 White 15
4 PM Mon 87 91 SW 13 19 14568 11404 5236 White 14
5 PM Mon 87 89 SW 13 19 12861 9298 3130 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 85 86 SW 12 18 9478 7775 1607 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 11 17 7837 6168 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 80 80 SW 10 16 6145 6168 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 10 14 5780 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 14 5471 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]