Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 9574 8627 2459 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 5 9574 8627 2459 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 51 51 NE 8 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 53 54 NE 5 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 55 57 NE 5 11713 10676 4508 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 56 59 NE 10 12108 10943 4775 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 58 62 NE 7 12631 12080 5912 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 59 63 NE 7 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 60 63 NE 8 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 60 62 NE 6 12631 12080 5912 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 60 61 NE 6 12353 11959 5791 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 8 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 54 54 NE 7 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 51 51 NE 7 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 49 49 NE 7 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 7 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NW 8 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 12 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 13 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 47 47 N 12 8641 7771 1603 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 12 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 13 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 56 57 N 9 11713 10676 4508 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 58 60 N 7 12230 11613 5445 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 60 63 NE 7 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 62 66 N 7 13712 12824 6656 White 21
1 PM Mon 63 67 NW 7 13922 12927 6759 White 22
2 PM Mon 64 67 NW 7 13922 12927 6759 White 22
3 PM Mon 65 67 NW 7 13922 12927 6759 White 22
4 PM Mon 65 66 N 6 13712 12824 6656 White 21
5 PM Mon 63 63 NE 6 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 61 61 NE 6 12353 11959 5791 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 6 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 55 55 N 6 10798 10403 4235 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 7 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 7 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 8 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 8 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 9 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 9 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 10 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 10 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 10798 10403 4235 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 9 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 60 62 NE 9 12631 12080 5912 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 63 66 NE 8 13712 12824 6656 White 21
12 Noon Tue 65 69 NE 8 14334 13718 7550 White 24
1 PM Tue 67 71 N 7 14746 14501 8333 White 26
2 PM Tue 68 71 N 7 14746 14501 8333 White 26
3 PM Tue 68 70 N 7 14541 14196 8028 White 25
4 PM Tue 67 68 NW 7 14129 13173 7005 White 23
5 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 13323 12546 6378 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 62 62 NW 7 12631 12080 5912 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 6 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 55 55 N 6 10798 10403 4235 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 54 54 NW 6 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 6 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 6 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 7 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 7 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 8 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 8 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 57 58 N 8 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 61 63 N 8 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 64 67 NE 8 13922 12927 6759 White 22
12 Noon Wed 66 70 N 8 14541 14196 8028 White 25
1 PM Wed 68 72 N 8 14951 14635 8467 White 27
2 PM Wed 69 72 N 8 14951 14635 8467 White 27
3 PM Wed 69 71 N 8 14746 14501 8333 White 26
4 PM Wed 68 69 NE 8 14334 13718 7550 White 24
5 PM Wed 66 66 NE 8 13712 12824 6656 White 21
6 PM Wed 63 63 NE 8 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 9 12108 10943 4775 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 55 55 N 9 10798 10403 4235 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 10 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 53 53 N 10 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 12 10591 9506 3338 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 13 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 14 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 49 49 N 15 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 16 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 48 48 NE 16 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 17 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 17 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 18 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 18 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 18 10468 9006 2838 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 54 56 NE 18 11088 10573 4405 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 57 59 NE 18 12108 10943 4775 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 59 62 NE 17 12631 12080 5912 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 60 63 NE 17 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 61 63 NE 16 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 61 63 NE 16 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 60 61 NE 15 12353 11959 5791 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 58 58 NE 15 11986 10779 4611 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 14 10798 10403 4235 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 13 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 12 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 12 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 48 48 N 12 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 49 49 N 12 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 N 12 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 47 47 N 10 8641 7771 1603 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 46 46 N 10 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 13 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 13 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 8480 7145 977 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 10 8641 7771 1603 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 9 10067 8754 2586 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 54 56 N 9 11088 10573 4405 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 57 60 N 8 12230 11613 5445 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 59 63 NE 8 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 61 65 NE 7 13323 12546 6378 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 61 64 E 7 12954 12324 6156 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 62 64 E 7 12954 12324 6156 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 62 63 NE 6 12850 12202 6034 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 60 60 NE 6 12230 11613 5445 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 57 57 E 6 11713 10676 4508 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 54 54 E 6 10695 9992 3824 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 9574 8627 2459 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 49 49 NE 6 9068 8402 2234 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 8768 8080 1912 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 8641 7771 1603 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]