Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 NNE 16 21 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 NNE 16 23 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NNE 16 21 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 17 24 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 17 24 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 16 21 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 17 24 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 14 20 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 16 21 5125 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 NE 16 21 8858 8677 2509 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 69 72 NE 17 24 9687 9040 2872 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 71 76 NE 16 23 10007 9756 3588 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 74 80 NE 14 21 10918 10135 3967 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 75 81 NE 14 21 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 76 81 ENE 13 20 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 76 80 ENE 12 19 10918 10135 3967 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 76 78 ENE 11 18 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 76 77 ENE 11 17 10170 9836 3668 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 74 74 ENE 9 14 9847 9596 3428 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 72 72 NNE 9 13 9687 9040 2872 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 71 71 NNE 9 13 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 66 66 NNE 9 13 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 8 11 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 65 65 NNW 9 13 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NNW 9 13 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 66 66 NNW 9 13 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 65 65 NNW 9 13 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 10 14 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 65 65 N 10 13 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 65 65 NNE 10 13 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 64 64 NNE 9 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 64 64 NE 9 11 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 69 69 NE 8 11 9082 8735 2567 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 73 74 ENE 8 12 9847 9596 3428 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 76 79 SE 8 13 10846 9995 3827 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 79 83 S 9 14 11157 10905 4737 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 80 85 S 10 16 12655 11048 4880 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 81 87 SW 10 17 13827 11299 5131 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 80 85 SW 11 18 12655 11048 4880 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 81 84 SW 11 19 11332 10976 4808 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 80 82 WSW 11 19 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 11 18 10846 9995 3827 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 10 16 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 9 13 10007 9756 3588 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 8 11 9767 9398 3230 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 6 10 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 6 11 9082 8735 2567 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 6 11 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 WSW 6 11 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 8 12 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 8 12 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 64 64 WSW 8 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 8 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 65 65 NW 8 11 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 67 67 NNW 6 11 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 70 71 WNW 6 11 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 74 77 SSW 8 11 10170 9836 3668 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 77 81 SSE 8 11 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 79 84 SSE 8 11 11332 10976 4808 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 79 84 S 9 12 11332 10976 4808 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 80 85 S 9 12 12655 11048 4880 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 80 83 S 9 12 11157 10905 4737 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 80 82 S 9 12 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 79 80 S 9 12 10918 10135 3967 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 77 77 SW 8 11 10170 9836 3668 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 6 11 9927 9676 3508 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 73 73 NNW 5 10 9767 9398 3230 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 71 71 NNW 5 10 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 69 69 NNW 6 11 9082 8735 2567 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 6 11 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NNW 6 11 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 10 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 65 65 N 6 10 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 64 64 N 8 11 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 64 64 NE 8 11 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 64 64 NE 9 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 64 64 NE 9 12 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 65 65 NE 8 12 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 67 67 NE 8 12 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 70 71 ENE 9 12 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 73 76 ENE 9 12 10007 9756 3588 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 76 80 E 10 12 10918 10135 3967 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 77 82 E 10 12 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 78 83 E 10 12 11157 10905 4737 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 79 83 ESE 10 12 11157 10905 4737 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 79 82 ESE 10 12 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 79 81 SE 10 12 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 78 78 SE 10 12 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 77 77 SE 9 12 10170 9836 3668 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 75 75 S 9 11 9927 9676 3508 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 73 73 S 8 11 9767 9398 3230 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 8 11 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 11 9082 8735 2567 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 6 11 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 WSW 6 11 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 6 11 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 65 65 W 6 11 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 64 64 W 6 11 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 8 10 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 8 10 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 65 65 NW 6 10 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 66 66 NNW 6 9 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 68 68 N 5 9 8858 8677 2509 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 70 71 NE 5 10 9607 8851 2683 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 73 75 ESE 6 10 9927 9676 3508 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 75 78 SE 8 11 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 77 81 SSE 8 11 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 78 82 SSE 9 11 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 78 81 SSE 9 11 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 79 82 S 10 11 11061 10792 4624 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 79 81 S 10 12 10989 10361 4193 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 78 78 S 10 12 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 76 76 SSW 9 12 10007 9756 3588 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 8 12 9847 9596 3428 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 6 11 9687 9040 2872 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 70 70 SW 5 10 9444 8793 2625 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 5 10 8858 8677 2509 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 67 67 SW 5 9 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 5 9 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 9 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 9 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 9 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 10 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 10 8625 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 65 65 SW 5 10 8683 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 9 8741 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 9 8800 8619 2451 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 69 70 S 6 10 9444 8793 2625 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 71 73 SSE 9 11 9767 9398 3230 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 73 75 SSE 10 12 9927 9676 3508 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 75 78 SSE 11 13 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 75 78 S 11 14 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 75 78 S 11 14 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 76 78 SSW 11 14 10397 9915 3747 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 76 77 SSW 11 14 10170 9836 3668 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 10 14 9927 9676 3508 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 9 13 9767 9398 3230 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 8 12 9687 9040 2872 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 11 9444 8793 2625 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 11 8858 8677 2509 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 11 8741 6168 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]