Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NNE 14 21 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 14 21 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 14 21 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 14 21 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 14 21 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 14 21 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 14 21 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NNE 14 21 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 14 21 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 14 21 6961 6637 469 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 54 56 NE 14 21 7281 6956 788 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 56 58 NE 14 20 7494 7168 1000 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 56 58 NE 14 18 7494 7168 1000 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 56 58 NE 14 18 7494 7168 1000 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 56 57 NE 12 13 7388 7062 894 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 55 55 NE 11 13 7174 6849 681 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 12 6961 6637 469 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 9 12 6641 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 10 11 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NE 10 13 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 11 13 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 12 13 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 NE 12 13 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 10 13 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NNE 11 13 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 13 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 10 13 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 10 12 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 8 10 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 10 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 9 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 6 9 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 ENE 6 9 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 10 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 ESE 9 11 7068 6743 575 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 55 57 SE 10 13 7388 7062 894 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 56 58 S 11 16 7494 7168 1000 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 56 58 S 12 17 7494 7168 1000 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 56 57 SSW 12 17 7388 7062 894 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 11 17 7174 6849 681 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 54 54 SSW 10 16 7068 6743 575 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 52 52 SSW 10 14 6854 6261 93 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 14 6641 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 10 14 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 SW 12 17 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 SW 14 21 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 SW 16 24 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 SW 16 25 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 SW 16 24 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 SW 14 23 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 SW 13 21 5581 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 WSW 13 19 5581 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 12 18 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 11 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 10 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 9 12 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 WSW 9 11 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 WSW 9 11 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 51 WSW 9 11 6748 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 50 51 WSW 10 11 6748 6168 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 50 51 WSW 10 11 6748 6168 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 10 12 6641 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 48 W 9 12 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 W 9 13 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 W 9 13 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 W 9 12 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 W 9 12 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 WNW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 WNW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 WNW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 NNW 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 42 NNW 11 14 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 N 11 14 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 46 N 11 16 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 47 N 12 16 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 45 47 N 12 17 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 46 N 12 17 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 44 N 11 17 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 42 N 11 17 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 N 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 NNE 10 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 NNE 10 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 10 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 NNE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 NNE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 NE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 NE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 NNE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 NNE 11 17 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 NNE 11 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NNE 10 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NNE 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 NNE 10 14 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 NE 11 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 41 NE 11 16 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 44 NE 11 16 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 45 NE 11 16 5808 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 NE 11 14 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 NE 10 13 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 NE 10 13 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 NE 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 NNE 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 N 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 N 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 N 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NNW 8 11 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 6 11 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NNW 6 11 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 8 11 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 NNW 8 11 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 48 NNW 8 11 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 NW 8 11 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 49 NW 8 11 6264 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 48 NW 8 11 6150 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 47 47 NW 6 11 6036 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 11 5922 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 NW 6 11 5694 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 6 11 5467 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 11 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 11 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 12 5354 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 N 8 12 5467 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]