Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 90 90 WSW 5 12 16440 14238 8070 White 16
1 AM Sun 85 85 WSW 4 9 10147 7583 1415 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 80 80 SW 3 6 5720 6168 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 79 79 SW 3 7 5606 6168 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 77 77 SW 4 8 5496 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 76 76 SW 4 9 5442 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 81 81 SW 4 8 6190 6168 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 86 86 SW 4 6 12427 8902 2734 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 90 92 WSW 4 5 16845 16267 10099 White 18
9 AM Sun 94 98 WSW 6 7 18049 18049 11881 White 24
10 AM Sun 97 103 WSW 8 9 19041 19041 12873 White 29
11 AM Sun 101 109 WSW 10 11 20250 20250 14082 White 35
12 Noon Sun 102 111 WSW 12 14 20633 20633 14465 White 37
1 PM Sun 104 113 WSW 14 16 21017 21017 14849 White 39
2 PM Sun 105 113 WSW 16 19 21017 21017 14849 White 39
3 PM Sun 104 111 WSW 18 21 20633 20633 14465 White 37
4 PM Sun 104 109 WSW 20 23 20250 20250 14082 White 35
5 PM Sun 103 106 WSW 22 25 19666 19646 13478 White 32
6 PM Sun 101 102 WSW 21 27 18843 18843 12675 White 28
7 PM Sun 98 98 WSW 20 29 18049 18049 11881 White 24
8 PM Sun 96 96 W 19 30 17649 17649 11481 White 22
9 PM Sun 94 94 WSW 14 24 17248 17248 11080 White 20
10 PM Sun 92 92 WSW 10 18 16845 16267 10099 White 18
11 PM Sun 90 90 WSW 5 12 16440 14238 8070 White 16
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 SW 5 11 9509 6176 8 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 78 78 SW 5 11 5551 6168 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 72 72 SW 4 10 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 SSW 4 10 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 SSW 5 10 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SSW 5 10 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 SSW 5 9 5319 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 79 SSW 6 9 5606 6168 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 84 86 SW 7 8 12427 8902 2734 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 87 91 SW 11 12 16643 15481 9313 White 17
10 AM Mon 90 96 SW 15 17 17649 17649 11481 White 22
11 AM Mon 93 101 SW 18 21 18644 18644 12476 White 27
12 Noon Mon 95 104 SW 19 22 19265 19197 13029 White 30
1 PM Mon 97 106 WSW 20 23 19666 19646 13478 White 32
2 PM Mon 99 107 WSW 21 25 19862 19862 13694 White 33
3 PM Mon 99 106 WSW 21 24 19666 19646 13478 White 32
4 PM Mon 99 104 WSW 20 23 19265 19197 13029 White 30
5 PM Mon 99 102 WSW 20 23 18843 18843 12675 White 28
6 PM Mon 97 98 WSW 19 27 18049 18049 11881 White 24
7 PM Mon 95 95 WSW 18 32 17449 17449 11281 White 21
8 PM Mon 94 94 WSW 17 36 17248 17248 11080 White 20
9 PM Mon 92 92 WSW 13 28 16845 16267 10099 White 18
10 PM Mon 90 90 WSW 9 19 16440 14238 8070 White 16
11 PM Mon 88 88 WSW 5 10 16028 10034 3866 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 SW 4 10 6190 6168 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 75 75 SW 4 9 5387 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 68 68 SW 4 8 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 SSW 4 8 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 SSW 4 8 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 SSW 3 8 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 SSW 4 7 5108 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 SSW 4 6 5442 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 81 83 SSW 5 5 8966 6168 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 84 86 SW 7 8 12427 8902 2734 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 87 89 SW 9 11 16235 11427 5259 White 15
11 AM Tue 90 90 SW 11 13 16440 14238 8070 White 16
12 Noon Tue 92 94 SW 13 15 17248 17248 11080 White 20
1 PM Tue 93 97 SW 14 17 17849 17849 11681 White 23
2 PM Tue 95 100 SW 16 18 18448 18448 12280 White 26
3 PM Tue 95 100 SW 16 18 18448 18448 12280 White 26
4 PM Tue 95 99 SW 15 18 18249 18249 12081 White 25
5 PM Tue 95 97 SW 15 18 17849 17849 11681 White 23
6 PM Tue 93 94 SW 15 23 17248 17248 11080 White 20
7 PM Tue 90 90 SW 15 28 16440 14238 8070 White 16
8 PM Tue 88 88 WSW 16 33 16028 10034 3866 White 14
9 PM Tue 87 87 WSW 11 24 14770 9438 3270 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 86 86 W 7 15 12427 8902 2734 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 84 84 W 2 6 9509 6176 8 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]