Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 15 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 37 37 NE 15 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 15 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 15 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 38 38 NE 16 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 41 42 NE 18 7115 6932 764 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 42 44 NE 22 7182 7075 907 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 43 45 NE 23 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 44 46 NE 23 7244 7146 978 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 44 46 NE 24 7244 7146 978 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 43 44 NE 25 7182 7075 907 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 40 40 NE 25 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 38 38 NE 26 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 36 36 NE 26 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 36 36 NE 28 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 36 36 NE 28 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 35 35 NE 21 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 35 35 NE 20 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 33 33 NE 20 5475 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 NE 18 5289 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 NE 18 5289 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NE 17 5289 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NE 17 5475 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NE 17 5289 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NE 17 5289 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 NE 16 5171 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 NE 14 5171 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 NE 12 5171 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 NE 10 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 38 39 NE 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 40 42 NE 10 7115 6932 764 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 42 44 NE 9 7182 7075 907 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 43 45 NE 8 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 43 45 NE 8 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 42 43 NE 7 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 41 41 NE 7 7079 6819 651 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 39 39 NE 7 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 38 38 NE 8 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 36 36 N 8 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 36 36 N 8 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 36 36 N 9 6462 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 9 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 35 35 N 9 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 34 34 N 8 5854 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 6278 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 8 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 40 41 NE 8 7079 6819 651 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 44 45 NE 8 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 46 48 NE 8 7303 7213 1045 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NE 8 7361 7272 1104 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 48 50 NE 8 7361 7272 1104 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 47 48 NE 7 7303 7213 1045 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 45 45 NE 7 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 43 43 NE 7 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 41 41 NE 8 7079 6819 651 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 40 40 NE 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 39 39 NE 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 39 39 NE 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 39 39 NE 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NE 10 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 10 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 10 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 9 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 37 37 NE 8 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 8 6645 6168 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 43 44 NE 8 7182 7075 907 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 47 48 NE 8 7303 7213 1045 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 49 51 NE 8 7390 7301 1133 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 50 52 NE 7 7419 7330 1162 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 50 52 NE 7 7419 7330 1162 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 48 49 NE 7 7332 7243 1075 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 46 46 NE 6 7244 7146 978 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 44 44 NE 6 7182 7075 907 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 42 42 NE 6 7115 6932 764 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 41 41 NE 7 7079 6819 651 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 39 39 N 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 39 39 N 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 39 39 N 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 6827 6273 105 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 40 40 NE 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 8 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 47 48 NE 8 7303 7213 1045 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 49 51 NE 8 7390 7301 1133 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NE 7 7680 7359 1191 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 51 53 NE 7 7680 7359 1191 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 50 51 NE 6 7390 7301 1133 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 48 48 NE 6 7303 7213 1045 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 45 45 NE 6 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 43 43 NE 6 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 41 41 N 7 7079 6819 651 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 39 39 N 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 8 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 9 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 9 6935 6455 287 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 7007 6637 469 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 42 42 NE 9 7115 6932 764 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 46 47 NE 9 7273 7180 1012 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 49 51 NE 9 7390 7301 1133 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 51 53 NE 9 7680 7359 1191 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 53 55 NE 9 7910 7417 1249 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 53 54 NE 9 7839 7388 1220 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 52 53 NE 8 7680 7359 1191 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 51 51 NE 8 7390 7301 1133 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 7332 7243 1075 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 47 47 NE 8 7273 7180 1012 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 45 45 NE 8 7215 7113 945 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 43 43 N 9 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 43 43 N 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 10 7148 7004 836 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]