Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 NE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 44 45 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 NE 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 52 54 NE 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 53 55 NE 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 53 54 NE 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 NE 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 NE 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 N 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 N 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 N 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 N 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 44 46 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 50 51 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 N 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 41 42 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 53 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 55 57 NE 7 3450 3450 146 White 0
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 7 3450 3450 146 White 0
2 PM Fri 55 56 NE 6 3235 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 53 53 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 N 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 N 6 3664 3664 360 White 0
12 Noon Sat 57 59 NE 6 3879 3879 575 White 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 NE 6 3879 3879 575 White 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 NE 6 3450 3450 146 White 0
3 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 53 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 57 59 N 6 3879 3879 575 White 0
12 Noon Sun 59 61 NE 6 4307 4307 1003 White 0
1 PM Sun 59 61 NE 6 4307 4307 1003 White 0
2 PM Sun 59 60 NE 6 4093 4093 789 White 0
3 PM Sun 57 57 N 6 3450 3450 146 White 0
4 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 3235 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NW 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NW 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 N 7 3235 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 58 60 N 7 4093 4093 789 White 0
12 Noon Mon 60 62 NE 8 4520 4520 1216 White 0
1 PM Mon 60 62 NE 8 4520 4520 1216 White 0
2 PM Mon 60 61 NE 7 4307 4307 1003 White 0
3 PM Mon 59 59 N 7 3879 3879 575 White 0
4 PM Mon 58 58 N 6 3664 3664 360 White 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]