Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 9 12 6102 6102 2798 White 9
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 8 11 5883 5883 2579 White 8
2 AM Wed 82 82 SW 8 11 5883 5883 2579 White 8
3 AM Wed 80 80 SW 8 11 5442 5232 1928 White 6
4 AM Wed 80 80 SW 8 11 5442 5232 1928 White 6
5 AM Wed 80 80 SW 9 12 5442 5232 1928 White 6
6 AM Wed 78 78 SW 10 13 4999 4999 1695 White 4
7 AM Wed 80 80 SW 10 14 5442 5232 1928 White 6
8 AM Wed 82 82 SW 11 16 5883 5883 2579 White 8
9 AM Wed 85 85 SW 11 17 6541 6541 3237 White 11
10 AM Wed 85 86 WSW 11 17 6759 6759 3455 White 12
11 AM Wed 85 86 WSW 11 17 6759 6759 3455 White 12
12 Noon Wed 86 88 SW 11 17 7193 7193 3889 White 14
1 PM Wed 86 89 SSW 10 16 7408 7408 4104 White 15
2 PM Wed 86 89 S 10 16 7408 7408 4104 White 15
3 PM Wed 87 89 S 10 16 7408 7408 4104 White 15
4 PM Wed 86 87 SSE 10 16 6977 6977 3673 White 13
5 PM Wed 84 84 SSE 10 16 6321 6321 3017 White 10
6 PM Wed 83 83 SSE 9 14 6102 6102 2798 White 9
7 PM Wed 82 82 SSE 8 13 5883 5883 2579 White 8
8 PM Wed 81 81 SSE 6 11 5662 5662 2358 White 7
9 PM Wed 78 78 SSE 5 10 4999 4999 1695 White 4
10 PM Wed 78 78 S 5 8 4999 4999 1695 White 4
11 PM Wed 74 74 SSW 4 6 4114 4114 810 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 SW 4 5 4114 4114 810 White 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 3 4 3668 3668 364 White 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 3 4 3446 3446 142 White 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 NW 3 4 3223 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 3 4 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 3 4 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NW 4 5 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 5 8 3446 3446 142 White 0
8 AM Thu 77 79 WNW 6 9 5221 5087 1783 White 5
9 AM Thu 82 85 W 6 9 6541 6541 3237 White 11
10 AM Thu 85 90 S 8 10 7622 7622 4318 White 16
11 AM Thu 88 94 SSE 8 10 8478 8478 5174 White 20
12 Noon Thu 90 97 S 9 11 9119 9119 5815 White 23
1 PM Thu 91 98 SSW 9 13 9332 9332 6028 White 24
2 PM Thu 92 98 SSW 10 14 9332 9332 6028 White 24
3 PM Thu 92 97 SW 11 16 9119 9119 5815 White 23
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 11 16 8692 8692 5388 White 21
5 PM Thu 92 94 SW 11 16 8478 8478 5174 White 20
6 PM Thu 91 92 SW 10 14 8051 8051 4747 White 18
7 PM Thu 89 89 SW 9 12 7408 7408 4104 White 15
8 PM Thu 87 87 SW 8 10 6977 6977 3673 White 13
9 PM Thu 84 84 SW 6 10 6321 6321 3017 White 10
10 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 6 10 5662 5662 2358 White 7
11 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 6 10 4999 4999 1695 White 4
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 WSW 6 10 4556 4556 1252 White 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 WSW 6 10 4114 4114 810 White 0
2 AM Fri 73 73 WSW 6 10 3891 3891 587 White 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 6 10 3223 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 6 9 3223 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 73 73 SW 6 10 3891 3891 587 White 0
8 AM Fri 77 79 SW 6 10 5221 5087 1783 White 5
9 AM Fri 82 86 SSW 6 10 6759 6759 3455 White 12
10 AM Fri 86 92 S 8 11 8051 8051 4747 White 18
11 AM Fri 90 97 SSE 8 11 9119 9119 5815 White 23
12 Noon Fri 92 100 S 8 11 9757 9757 6453 White 25
1 PM Fri 94 102 S 9 12 10182 10182 6878 White 27
2 PM Fri 96 103 S 9 12 10389 10389 7085 White 28
3 PM Fri 96 102 S 9 12 10182 10182 6878 White 27
4 PM Fri 96 100 SSW 10 13 9757 9757 6453 White 25
5 PM Fri 95 97 SSW 10 13 9119 9119 5815 White 23
6 PM Fri 93 94 SSW 10 13 8478 8478 5174 White 20
7 PM Fri 91 91 SW 9 12 7837 7837 4533 White 17
8 PM Fri 88 88 SW 8 11 7193 7193 3889 White 14
9 PM Fri 84 84 SW 8 10 6321 6321 3017 White 10
10 PM Fri 81 81 SW 6 10 5662 5662 2358 White 7
11 PM Fri 78 78 SW 6 9 4999 4999 1695 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 SW 6 9 4556 4556 1252 White 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 WSW 6 9 4335 4335 1031 White 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 WSW 6 9 3891 3891 587 White 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 WSW 6 9 3446 3446 142 White 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 WSW 6 9 3223 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 W 6 9 3446 3446 142 White 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 WNW 8 10 4114 4114 810 White 0
8 AM Sat 79 81 NW 8 10 5662 5662 2358 White 7
9 AM Sat 85 89 NNW 8 11 7408 7408 4104 White 15
10 AM Sat 90 96 NNE 9 11 8905 8905 5601 White 22
11 AM Sat 95 102 NE 9 12 10182 10182 6878 White 27
12 Noon Sat 97 106 NE 9 12 11006 11006 7702 White 31
1 PM Sat 99 108 NE 10 13 11413 11413 8109 White 33
2 PM Sat 100 108 NE 10 13 11413 11413 8109 White 33
3 PM Sat 101 107 NE 10 13 11210 11210 7906 White 32
4 PM Sat 101 105 NE 10 13 10801 10801 7497 White 30
5 PM Sat 100 102 NE 10 13 10182 10182 6878 White 27
6 PM Sat 99 100 ENE 9 12 9757 9757 6453 White 25
7 PM Sat 96 96 E 8 11 8905 8905 5601 White 22
8 PM Sat 93 93 E 6 10 8265 8265 4961 White 19
9 PM Sat 90 90 NE 6 10 7622 7622 4318 White 16
10 PM Sat 86 86 NNW 6 10 6759 6759 3455 White 12
11 PM Sat 84 84 WNW 6 10 6321 6321 3017 White 10
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 WNW 6 10 5662 5662 2358 White 7
1 AM Sun 79 79 NW 8 11 5221 5087 1783 White 5
2 AM Sun 78 78 NW 8 11 4999 4999 1695 White 4
3 AM Sun 76 76 NW 8 11 4556 4556 1252 White 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 NNW 8 11 4114 4114 810 White 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 NNW 8 11 4114 4114 810 White 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 N 9 12 4556 4556 1252 White 0
7 AM Sun 79 79 N 10 14 5221 5087 1783 White 5
8 AM Sun 83 85 NNE 11 16 6541 6541 3237 White 11
9 AM Sun 87 91 NNE 11 16 7837 7837 4533 White 17
10 AM Sun 91 96 NE 11 16 8905 8905 5601 White 22
11 AM Sun 95 102 NE 11 16 10182 10182 6878 White 27
12 Noon Sun 98 106 NE 11 16 11006 11006 7702 White 31
1 PM Sun 101 109 NE 11 17 11617 11617 8313 White 34
2 PM Sun 102 110 NE 11 17 11820 11820 8516 White 35
3 PM Sun 103 109 NE 11 17 11617 11617 8313 White 34
4 PM Sun 103 107 NE 11 16 11210 11210 7906 White 32
5 PM Sun 101 103 NE 10 14 10389 10389 7085 White 28
6 PM Sun 99 100 NE 9 12 9757 9757 6453 White 25
7 PM Sun 97 97 NE 8 10 9119 9119 5815 White 23
8 PM Sun 94 94 NE 6 9 8478 8478 5174 White 20
9 PM Sun 91 91 NNE 6 9 7837 7837 4533 White 17
10 PM Sun 89 89 NNW 6 9 7408 7408 4104 White 15
11 PM Sun 87 87 WNW 6 10 6977 6977 3673 White 13
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 WNW 6 10 6541 6541 3237 White 11
1 AM Mon 83 83 WNW 8 11 6102 6102 2798 White 9
2 AM Mon 81 81 WNW 8 11 5662 5662 2358 White 7
3 AM Mon 79 79 NW 8 11 5221 5087 1783 White 5
4 AM Mon 77 77 NNW 8 10 4778 4778 1474 White 0
5 AM Mon 77 77 NNW 8 10 4778 4778 1474 White 0
6 AM Mon 79 79 N 8 11 5221 5087 1783 White 5
7 AM Mon 82 82 NE 9 12 5883 5883 2579 White 8
8 AM Mon 86 87 ENE 9 13 6977 6977 3673 White 13
9 AM Mon 90 93 ENE 9 14 8265 8265 4961 White 19
10 AM Mon 94 99 E 10 14 9544 9544 6240 White 24
11 AM Mon 98 104 E 10 14 10595 10595 7291 White 29
12 Noon Mon 101 109 E 10 14 11617 11617 8313 White 34
1 PM Mon 103 111 E 10 14 12023 12023 8719 White 36
2 PM Mon 105 112 ESE 10 14 12225 12225 8921 White 37
3 PM Mon 105 111 ESE 10 14 12023 12023 8719 White 36
4 PM Mon 105 109 ESE 10 14 11617 11617 8313 White 34
5 PM Mon 103 105 ESE 10 13 10801 10801 7497 White 30
6 PM Mon 102 103 SE 9 12 10389 10389 7085 White 28
7 PM Mon 99 99 SSE 8 11 9544 9544 6240 White 24
8 PM Mon 97 97 S 6 10 9119 9119 5815 White 23
9 PM Mon 94 94 S 6 10 8478 8478 5174 White 20
10 PM Mon 91 91 S 8 11 7837 7837 4533 White 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]