Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NE 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 8 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 8 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NE 8 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 NE 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 NNE 12 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 79 NNE 14 20 8850 4974 1670 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 80 85 NNE 13 19 9824 9573 6269 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 82 87 NNE 12 19 9980 9729 6425 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 84 90 NNE 11 18 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 86 91 NNE 10 16 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 86 90 NNE 10 16 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 86 88 NNE 9 13 10087 9807 6503 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 86 87 NNE 8 12 9980 9729 6425 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 85 85 NNE 8 12 9824 9573 6269 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 82 82 NNE 5 8 9589 8840 5536 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 80 80 NNE 4 6 9022 8726 5422 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 NNW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 WNW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 WNW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 WNW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NW 3 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 WNW 3 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 3 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 NNW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 86 NE 8 11 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 87 92 E 9 13 10956 10259 6955 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 89 94 ESE 9 13 11095 10869 7565 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 91 97 S 9 12 12878 11078 7774 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 92 97 S 8 11 12878 11078 7774 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 93 97 S 8 12 12878 11078 7774 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 93 95 SSW 9 13 11237 10938 7634 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 92 93 SSW 9 13 11025 10523 7219 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 91 91 SSW 8 12 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 88 88 SSW 6 10 10087 9807 6503 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 85 85 SSW 5 8 9824 9573 6269 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 81 81 SSW 4 8 9374 8783 5479 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 SW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 SW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 SW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 SW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 SW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 SW 3 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 3 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 WSW 3 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 76 SSW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 84 SSE 6 10 9745 9306 6002 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 91 ESE 8 10 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 90 95 SE 8 10 11237 10938 7634 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 91 96 SE 8 11 11823 11008 7704 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 91 96 SSE 6 11 11823 11008 7704 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 92 96 SSE 6 12 11823 11008 7704 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 91 93 SSE 6 12 11025 10523 7219 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 90 91 SSE 6 12 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 89 89 S 5 11 10309 9885 6581 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 86 86 S 4 9 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 83 83 SSW 3 8 9667 8958 5654 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 80 80 SSW 2 6 9022 8726 5422 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 WSW 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 W 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 NNW 4 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 NNE 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 77 NNE 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 84 NE 8 11 9745 9306 6002 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 87 91 NE 9 12 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 89 93 ENE 9 12 11025 10523 7219 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 90 94 ENE 9 11 11095 10869 7565 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 90 94 ENE 8 11 11095 10869 7565 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 91 94 E 8 11 11095 10869 7565 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 91 93 E 6 11 11025 10523 7219 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 90 90 E 6 11 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 88 88 ESE 5 10 10087 9807 6503 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 86 86 SSE 4 8 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 83 83 S 4 6 9667 8958 5654 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 79 79 S 4 6 8850 4974 1670 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 76 76 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 SW 5 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 4 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 3 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 WSW 3 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 76 SSW 3 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 82 ESE 4 8 9589 8840 5536 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 85 88 E 5 9 10087 9807 6503 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 87 91 E 5 10 10886 10041 6737 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 88 92 E 6 11 10956 10259 6955 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 89 93 E 6 11 11025 10523 7219 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 89 92 ESE 6 11 10956 10259 6955 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 90 92 SSE 6 11 10956 10259 6955 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 89 89 SSE 6 11 10309 9885 6581 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 88 88 S 6 10 10087 9807 6503 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 86 86 S 5 9 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 83 83 SSW 5 8 9667 8958 5654 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 79 79 SSW 5 6 8850 4974 1670 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 6 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 SW 6 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SSW 6 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 SSW 6 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 SSW 6 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 SSW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 S 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 81 SSE 6 9 9374 8783 5479 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 84 86 SE 8 10 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 86 89 SSE 8 11 10309 9885 6581 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 87 90 S 9 12 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 87 90 S 9 13 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 87 90 SSW 9 14 10651 9963 6659 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 87 89 SSW 9 14 10309 9885 6581 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 86 86 SSW 9 14 9902 9651 6347 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 85 85 SSW 8 13 9824 9573 6269 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 82 82 SSW 6 11 9589 8840 5536 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 80 80 SSW 5 10 9022 8726 5422 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 77 77 SSW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]