Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SSW 2 3 6632 5505 2201 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 69 69 SW 2 3 5924 5205 1901 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 2 3 5212 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 2 3 5114 4974 1670 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 3 5017 4974 1670 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 2 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 WNW 2 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 3 5114 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 71 73 N 3 4 7132 6269 2965 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 75 79 NNE 5 8 10109 8335 5031 White 15
10 AM Wed 81 87 NE 8 11 11761 11761 8457 White 23
11 AM Wed 86 94 E 9 12 13182 13182 9878 White 30
12 Noon Wed 88 96 ESE 10 13 13580 13580 10276 White 32
1 PM Wed 92 101 SSE 11 16 14569 14569 11265 White 37
2 PM Wed 93 101 S 12 17 14569 14569 11265 White 37
3 PM Wed 93 99 SSW 12 17 14175 14175 10871 White 35
4 PM Wed 94 98 S 12 18 13977 13977 10673 White 34
5 PM Wed 91 93 SSW 12 18 12982 12982 9678 White 29
6 PM Wed 90 91 SSW 12 17 12580 12580 9276 White 27
7 PM Wed 89 89 SSW 10 13 12171 12171 8867 White 25
8 PM Wed 83 83 SSW 9 12 10937 10937 7633 White 19
9 PM Wed 79 79 S 6 10 10109 8335 5031 White 15
10 PM Wed 77 77 SSW 6 9 9674 7475 4171 White 13
11 PM Wed 75 75 SW 5 8 7924 6745 3441 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 SW 5 8 7531 6618 3314 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 72 72 SW 4 6 6760 5890 2586 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 70 70 WSW 4 6 6308 5302 1998 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 68 68 WSW 4 5 5535 5108 1804 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 3 4 5212 4974 1670 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 3 4 5212 4974 1670 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 3 4 5114 4974 1670 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 68 68 SSE 3 4 5535 5108 1804 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 74 76 ENE 3 4 9457 7080 3776 White 12
9 AM Thu 79 83 E 5 6 10937 10937 7633 White 19
10 AM Thu 86 92 ESE 8 10 12781 12781 9477 White 28
11 AM Thu 92 100 SE 10 13 14372 14372 11068 White 36
12 Noon Thu 96 105 SE 11 14 15353 15353 12049 White 41
1 PM Thu 98 107 SSE 11 16 15739 15739 12435 White 43
2 PM Thu 99 107 S 11 16 15739 15739 12435 White 43
3 PM Thu 99 105 S 11 16 15353 15353 12049 White 41
4 PM Thu 99 103 S 11 16 14962 14962 11658 White 39
5 PM Thu 97 99 S 11 16 14175 14175 10871 White 35
6 PM Thu 94 95 SSW 10 14 13381 13381 10077 White 31
7 PM Thu 91 91 SSW 9 13 12580 12580 9276 White 27
8 PM Thu 88 88 SW 8 11 11967 11967 8663 White 24
9 PM Thu 85 85 SW 6 9 11350 11350 8046 White 21
10 PM Thu 82 82 WSW 5 6 10730 10730 7426 White 18
11 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 4 5 10109 8335 5031 White 15
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 WSW 3 4 9457 7080 3776 White 12
1 AM Fri 74 74 SW 3 4 7531 6618 3314 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 72 72 SW 3 4 6760 5890 2586 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 3 4 6308 5302 1998 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 4 5924 5205 1901 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 70 70 SW 3 4 6308 5302 1998 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 71 71 SSW 3 4 6632 5505 2201 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 74 74 S 3 5 7531 6618 3314 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 78 80 SSE 4 6 10316 9672 6368 White 16
9 AM Fri 83 87 SSE 6 9 11761 11761 8457 White 23
10 AM Fri 88 94 SE 9 11 13182 13182 9878 White 30
11 AM Fri 93 101 SE 10 13 14569 14569 11265 White 37
12 Noon Fri 97 106 SSE 10 14 15546 15546 12242 White 42
1 PM Fri 99 108 SSE 10 14 15932 15932 12628 White 44
2 PM Fri 100 108 S 10 14 15932 15932 12628 White 44
3 PM Fri 101 107 S 10 14 15739 15739 12435 White 43
4 PM Fri 100 104 S 10 14 15159 15159 11855 White 40
5 PM Fri 99 101 S 10 13 14569 14569 11265 White 37
6 PM Fri 97 98 SSW 9 12 13977 13977 10673 White 34
7 PM Fri 94 94 SSW 8 10 13182 13182 9878 White 30
8 PM Fri 91 91 SSW 6 9 12580 12580 9276 White 27
9 PM Fri 88 88 SW 5 8 11967 11967 8663 White 24
10 PM Fri 86 86 SW 4 6 11556 11556 8252 White 22
11 PM Fri 83 83 SW 4 5 10937 10937 7633 White 19
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 SW 4 5 10524 10524 7220 White 17
1 AM Sat 79 79 SW 4 5 10109 8335 5031 White 15
2 AM Sat 77 77 SW 4 5 9674 7475 4171 White 13
3 AM Sat 75 75 SW 4 5 7924 6745 3441 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 74 74 SSW 4 5 7531 6618 3314 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 73 73 SSW 4 5 7132 6269 2965 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 74 74 S 4 5 7531 6618 3314 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 77 77 SSE 4 6 9674 7475 4171 White 13
8 AM Sat 80 82 SE 5 8 10730 10730 7426 White 18
9 AM Sat 85 89 SE 8 10 12171 12171 8867 White 25
10 AM Sat 90 96 SSE 10 13 13580 13580 10276 White 32
11 AM Sat 95 102 SSE 11 16 14766 14766 11462 White 38
12 Noon Sat 98 106 SSE 11 17 15546 15546 12242 White 42
1 PM Sat 100 108 S 11 16 15932 15932 12628 White 44
2 PM Sat 101 108 S 11 16 15932 15932 12628 White 44
3 PM Sat 102 108 S 11 16 15932 15932 12628 White 44
4 PM Sat 101 105 S 10 14 15353 15353 12049 White 41
5 PM Sat 100 102 S 10 14 14766 14766 11462 White 38
6 PM Sat 98 99 S 10 13 14175 14175 10871 White 35
7 PM Sat 96 96 SSW 9 13 13580 13580 10276 White 32
8 PM Sat 93 93 SSW 9 12 12982 12982 9678 White 29
9 PM Sat 91 91 SSW 8 11 12580 12580 9276 White 27
10 PM Sat 88 88 SSW 8 10 11967 11967 8663 White 24
11 PM Sat 86 86 SSW 6 9 11556 11556 8252 White 22
12 Midnight Sun 84 84 SSW 5 8 11144 11144 7840 White 20
1 AM Sun 82 82 SW 5 8 10730 10730 7426 White 18
2 AM Sun 80 80 SW 4 6 10316 9672 6368 White 16
3 AM Sun 78 78 SW 4 5 9892 7864 4560 White 14
4 AM Sun 77 77 SW 4 5 9674 7475 4171 White 13
5 AM Sun 77 77 SW 4 5 9674 7475 4171 White 13
6 AM Sun 78 78 SW 4 5 9892 7864 4560 White 14
7 AM Sun 81 81 SSW 4 5 10524 10524 7220 White 17
8 AM Sun 84 86 SSW 4 6 11556 11556 8252 White 22
9 AM Sun 89 93 SSW 5 8 12982 12982 9678 White 29
10 AM Sun 95 100 SSW 8 10 14372 14372 11068 White 36
11 AM Sun 99 106 SSW 9 12 15546 15546 12242 White 42
12 Noon Sun 102 110 SSW 10 13 16317 16317 13013 White 46
1 PM Sun 103 111 SW 11 14 16510 16510 13206 White 47
2 PM Sun 104 111 SW 11 16 16510 16510 13206 White 47
3 PM Sun 104 110 SW 11 16 16317 16317 13013 White 46
4 PM Sun 103 107 WSW 11 16 15739 15739 12435 White 43
5 PM Sun 101 103 WSW 11 16 14962 14962 11658 White 39
6 PM Sun 100 101 WSW 11 14 14569 14569 11265 White 37
7 PM Sun 98 98 SW 10 14 13977 13977 10673 White 34
8 PM Sun 96 96 SW 10 13 13580 13580 10276 White 32
9 PM Sun 93 93 SW 9 12 12982 12982 9678 White 29
10 PM Sun 91 91 SW 9 12 12580 12580 9276 White 27
11 PM Sun 88 88 SW 8 11 11967 11967 8663 White 24
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 SW 8 10 11350 11350 8046 White 21
1 AM Mon 83 83 SW 6 10 10937 10937 7633 White 19
2 AM Mon 81 81 SW 6 9 10524 10524 7220 White 17
3 AM Mon 79 79 SW 6 8 10109 8335 5031 White 15
4 AM Mon 78 78 SW 5 8 9892 7864 4560 White 14
5 AM Mon 78 78 SW 5 8 9892 7864 4560 White 14
6 AM Mon 79 79 SW 5 8 10109 8335 5031 White 15
7 AM Mon 81 81 SSW 5 8 10524 10524 7220 White 17
8 AM Mon 85 87 SSW 6 9 11761 11761 8457 White 23
9 AM Mon 89 93 SSW 8 10 12982 12982 9678 White 29
10 AM Mon 94 100 SW 9 12 14372 14372 11068 White 36
11 AM Mon 99 107 SW 10 13 15739 15739 12435 White 43
12 Noon Mon 102 111 SW 11 14 16510 16510 13206 White 47
1 PM Mon 104 113 WSW 12 16 16894 16894 13590 White 49
2 PM Mon 105 113 WSW 12 17 16894 16894 13590 White 49
3 PM Mon 105 111 WSW 12 18 16510 16510 13206 White 47
4 PM Mon 104 108 WSW 12 18 15932 15932 12628 White 44
5 PM Mon 102 104 WSW 12 18 15159 15159 11855 White 40
6 PM Mon 100 101 WSW 12 18 14569 14569 11265 White 37
7 PM Mon 98 98 SW 11 17 13977 13977 10673 White 34
8 PM Mon 96 96 SW 11 16 13580 13580 10276 White 32
9 PM Mon 93 93 SW 10 14 12982 12982 9678 White 29
10 PM Mon 91 91 SW 10 13 12580 12580 9276 White 27

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]