Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 51 51 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 E 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 NE 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 63 66 NE 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 66 70 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 67 71 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 68 71 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 69 71 NE 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 68 69 NE 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 68 68 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NW 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 1 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 68 71 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 72 76 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 73 77 NE 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 74 77 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 75 77 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 75 76 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 74 74 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 71 71 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 70 73 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 73 77 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 75 79 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 77 80 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 78 80 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 78 79 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 76 76 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NW 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 67 69 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 73 76 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 76 80 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 78 82 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 78 81 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 79 81 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 79 80 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 77 77 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 74 74 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 N 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 N 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 N 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 N 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 63 66 N 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 66 69 N 20 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 68 71 N 18 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 69 72 N 17 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 70 72 N 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 70 71 NE 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 68 68 NE 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 NE 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 N 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 61 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 64 67 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 67 71 N 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 68 72 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 70 73 NE 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 71 73 NE 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 71 72 NE 6 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 NE 5 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 3166 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 2 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_s[email protected]