Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 2 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 N 2 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 NNW 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 2 2 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 2 4 5166 4980 1676 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 59 60 NNE 4 5 5621 5342 2038 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 63 65 ENE 5 6 6077 5796 2492 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 65 67 ESE 6 9 6260 5978 2674 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 66 68 SE 6 10 6351 6069 2765 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 67 68 SSE 6 10 6351 6069 2765 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 66 66 S 5 10 6169 5887 2583 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 64 64 S 5 10 5986 5705 2401 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 10 5712 5432 2128 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 5 9 5439 5160 1856 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 5 9 5257 5000 1696 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 5 9 5002 4974 1670 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 6 9 4982 4974 1670 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 8 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 9 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 11 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 12 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 SW 13 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SW 13 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 13 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 13 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 SW 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 SW 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 12 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 WSW 11 17 4982 4974 1670 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 WSW 11 16 5439 5160 1856 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 60 62 WSW 11 16 5804 5523 2219 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 61 63 WSW 12 17 5895 5614 2310 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 61 62 WSW 12 17 5804 5523 2219 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 61 62 WSW 12 17 5804 5523 2219 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 12 17 5712 5432 2128 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 11 16 5530 5251 1947 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 9 13 5257 5000 1696 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 6 10 4982 4974 1670 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 SW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 WSW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 8 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 WSW 8 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 WSW 8 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 WSW 8 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 W 8 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 W 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 WNW 8 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NW 9 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 10 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 NNW 11 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 51 N 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 54 N 12 18 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 53 55 N 12 18 5166 4980 1676 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 53 55 N 12 18 5166 4980 1676 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 53 54 N 13 19 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 21 4982 4974 1670 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 N 14 23 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 14 23 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 N 13 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 N 13 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 N 13 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 N 14 23 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 N 14 23 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 N 13 21 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 N 13 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 N 12 19 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 N 12 19 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 N 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 11 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 N 10 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 N 9 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 10 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 NNE 11 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 46 NNE 12 19 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 NNE 12 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 51 NNE 12 20 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 NNE 12 19 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 50 NNE 12 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 11 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 NNE 10 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 9 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 N 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 NW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 NW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 WNW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 WNW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 WNW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 NW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 NW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 NW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 4 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NW 4 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 N 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 N 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 N 6 10 5002 4974 1670 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 53 54 N 6 10 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 54 55 N 6 10 5166 4980 1676 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 54 54 N 6 10 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 10 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 9 5002 4974 1670 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 51 51 N 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 NNW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 4 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 4 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 WNW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NW 5 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 NW 5 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 5 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 N 8 11 5075 4974 1670 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 56 58 NNE 8 12 5439 5160 1856 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NNE 8 12 5530 5251 1947 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 58 59 NNE 8 12 5530 5251 1947 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 58 59 NNE 8 12 5530 5251 1947 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 58 58 NNE 8 11 5439 5160 1856 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 56 56 NNE 8 11 5257 5000 1696 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 8 11 5002 4974 1670 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NNW 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 NW 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 WNW 6 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]