Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 N 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 2 5 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 E 2 5 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 2 5 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 ESE 6 10 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 6 10 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 6 10 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 54 ESE 5 9 6426 7200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 56 59 ESE 5 9 12547 7675 475 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 62 67 ESE 5 9 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 65 71 SSW 4 8 17169 15806 8606 White 18
12 Noon Wed 67 75 SSW 4 8 17984 17984 10784 White 22
1 PM Wed 69 77 SSW 4 8 18388 18388 11188 White 24
2 PM Wed 70 78 WNW 5 9 18591 18591 11391 White 25
3 PM Wed 70 76 WNW 5 9 18186 18186 10986 White 23
4 PM Wed 72 77 WNW 5 9 18388 18388 11188 White 24
5 PM Wed 72 75 NNW 4 8 17984 17984 10784 White 22
6 PM Wed 71 72 NNW 4 8 17373 16473 9273 White 19
7 PM Wed 70 70 NNW 4 8 16964 15096 7896 White 17
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 4 8 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 62 62 S 4 8 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 4 8 12776 9288 2088 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 3 6 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 3 6 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 6 6426 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 6 5821 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 6 5748 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 6 6006 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 58 E 4 8 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 60 62 E 4 8 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 65 68 E 4 8 16046 13729 6529 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 70 74 ENE 3 6 17780 17705 10505 White 21
12 Noon Thu 73 78 ENE 3 6 18591 18591 11391 White 25
1 PM Thu 74 79 ENE 3 6 18790 18790 11590 White 26
2 PM Thu 75 79 NW 5 9 18790 18790 11590 White 26
3 PM Thu 76 80 NW 5 9 18986 18986 11786 White 27
4 PM Thu 77 80 NW 5 9 18986 18986 11786 White 27
5 PM Thu 77 79 NW 5 9 18790 18790 11590 White 26
6 PM Thu 75 76 NW 5 9 18186 18186 10986 White 23
7 PM Thu 73 73 NW 5 9 17577 17104 9904 White 20
8 PM Thu 70 70 N 4 8 16964 15096 7896 White 17
9 PM Thu 67 67 N 4 8 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 65 65 N 4 8 13791 13044 5844 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 3 6 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 N 3 6 12776 9288 2088 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 6 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 4 8 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 4 8 6426 7200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 4 8 6006 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 4 8 6006 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 4 8 6623 7200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 58 58 ENE 4 8 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 62 63 NE 4 8 13331 12744 5544 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 66 69 NE 4 8 16716 14331 7131 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 70 75 NE 4 8 17984 17984 10784 White 22
11 AM Fri 74 80 NE 4 8 18986 18986 11786 White 27
12 Noon Fri 77 84 NE 4 8 19766 19766 12566 White 31
1 PM Fri 79 86 NE 4 8 20153 20153 12953 White 33
2 PM Fri 80 87 WNW 4 8 20346 20346 13146 White 34
3 PM Fri 81 87 WNW 4 8 20346 20346 13146 White 34
4 PM Fri 82 86 WNW 4 8 20153 20153 12953 White 33
5 PM Fri 81 84 WNW 5 9 19766 19766 12566 White 31
6 PM Fri 79 80 WNW 5 9 18986 18986 11786 White 27
7 PM Fri 77 77 WNW 5 9 18388 18388 11188 White 24
8 PM Fri 74 74 NNW 4 8 17780 17705 10505 White 21
9 PM Fri 71 71 NNW 4 8 17169 15806 8606 White 18
10 PM Fri 68 68 NNW 4 8 16046 13729 6529 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 65 65 N 4 8 13791 13044 5844 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 4 8 13331 12744 5544 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 4 8 12914 11720 4520 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 60 60 NNE 3 6 12776 9288 2088 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 58 58 NNE 3 6 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 3 6 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 2 5 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 2 5 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 62 62 ENE 2 5 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 66 67 ESE 3 6 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 70 73 ESE 3 6 17577 17104 9904 White 20
10 AM Sat 75 80 ESE 3 6 18986 18986 11786 White 27
11 AM Sat 79 86 SW 10 16 20153 20153 12953 White 33
12 Noon Sat 82 90 SW 10 16 20918 20918 13718 White 37
1 PM Sat 85 93 SW 10 16 21486 21486 14286 White 40
2 PM Sat 87 95 WSW 10 16 21863 21863 14663 White 42
3 PM Sat 88 95 WSW 10 16 21863 21863 14663 White 42
4 PM Sat 88 93 WSW 10 16 21486 21486 14286 White 40
5 PM Sat 87 90 WSW 13 20 20918 20918 13718 White 37
6 PM Sat 85 86 WSW 13 20 20153 20153 12953 White 33
7 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 13 20 19377 19377 12177 White 29
8 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 10 16 18790 18790 11590 White 26
9 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 10 16 17984 17984 10784 White 22
10 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 10 16 17169 15806 8606 White 18
11 PM Sat 67 67 W 4 8 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 4 8 13561 12881 5681 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 4 8 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 2 5 12776 9288 2088 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 58 58 WSW 2 5 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 2 5 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 6 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 58 58 SW 3 6 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 6 13100 12474 5274 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 66 67 SW 8 12 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 70 73 SW 8 12 17577 17104 9904 White 20
10 AM Sun 74 79 SW 8 12 18790 18790 11590 White 26
11 AM Sun 77 84 SW 11 17 19766 19766 12566 White 31
12 Noon Sun 80 88 SW 11 17 20538 20538 13338 White 35
1 PM Sun 82 90 SW 11 17 20918 20918 13718 White 37
2 PM Sun 83 91 WSW 12 19 21108 21108 13908 White 38
3 PM Sun 84 91 WSW 12 19 21108 21108 13908 White 38
4 PM Sun 83 88 WSW 12 19 20538 20538 13338 White 35
5 PM Sun 82 85 WSW 13 20 19960 19960 12760 White 32
6 PM Sun 80 81 WSW 13 20 19181 19181 11981 White 28
7 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 13 20 18591 18591 11391 White 25
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 10 16 17984 17984 10784 White 22
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 10 16 17169 15806 8606 White 18
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 16 15333 13502 6302 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 63 63 W 4 8 13331 12744 5544 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 4 8 12914 11720 4520 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 4 8 12547 7675 475 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 58 58 WNW 2 5 12092 7200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 56 56 WNW 2 5 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 5 6426 7200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 2 5 6426 7200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 56 56 SE 2 5 7773 7200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 59 59 SE 2 5 12547 7675 475 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 63 64 SSW 4 8 13561 12881 5681 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 66 69 SSW 4 8 16716 14331 7131 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 70 75 SSW 4 8 17984 17984 10784 White 22
11 AM Mon 73 80 SW 5 9 18986 18986 11786 White 27
12 Noon Mon 76 84 SW 5 9 19766 19766 12566 White 31
1 PM Mon 78 86 SW 5 9 20153 20153 12953 White 33
2 PM Mon 80 88 WSW 12 19 20538 20538 13338 White 35
3 PM Mon 81 88 WSW 12 19 20538 20538 13338 White 35
4 PM Mon 81 86 WSW 12 19 20153 20153 12953 White 33
5 PM Mon 80 83 W 9 13 19571 19571 12371 White 30
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 9 13 18790 18790 11590 White 26
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 9 13 17984 17984 10784 White 22
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 10 16 17373 16473 9273 White 19
9 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 16 16046 13729 6529 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 65 65 W 10 16 13791 13044 5844 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]