Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 17 26 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 17 26 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 16 24 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 16 24 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 E 16 24 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 E 14 23 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 14 23 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 E 14 23 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 13 20 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 E 13 20 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 E 13 20 7012 7200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 63 67 SE 11 17 7927 7319 119 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 67 72 SE 11 17 10183 8576 1376 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 69 74 SE 11 17 10627 9236 2036 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 77 SSW 9 13 11199 10597 3397 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 74 78 SSW 9 13 11388 10787 3587 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 74 76 SSW 9 13 11008 10428 3228 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 74 75 SW 8 12 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 71 71 SW 8 12 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 67 67 SW 8 12 7927 7319 119 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 8 12 7231 7200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 8 12 7012 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 12 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 9 13 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SSW 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 S 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 S 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 S 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 S 8 12 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 S 8 12 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 62 64 S 8 12 7324 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 65 68 SW 13 20 8268 7412 212 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 67 70 SW 13 20 8941 7904 704 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 68 72 SW 13 20 10183 8576 1376 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 69 73 WSW 18 27 10450 8907 1707 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 18 27 10450 8907 1707 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 69 71 WSW 18 27 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 68 69 W 16 24 8606 7562 362 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 16 24 7582 7226 26 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 16 24 7231 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 10 16 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 58 58 NNW 10 16 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NNW 10 16 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 8 12 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 8 12 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 8 12 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 9 13 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 10 16 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 ENE 10 16 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 57 ENE 10 16 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 62 ENE 11 17 7138 7200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 62 66 ENE 11 17 7582 7226 26 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 64 69 ENE 11 17 8606 7562 362 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 66 70 E 10 16 8941 7904 704 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 68 71 E 10 16 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 71 E 10 16 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 68 69 ENE 10 16 8606 7562 362 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 66 66 ENE 10 16 7582 7226 26 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 63 63 ENE 10 16 7231 7200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 60 60 ENE 11 17 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 ENE 11 17 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 ENE 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 E 12 19 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 E 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 E 11 17 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 62 E 11 17 7138 7200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 64 68 SE 8 12 8268 7412 212 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 67 72 SE 8 12 10183 8576 1376 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 70 75 SE 8 12 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 72 77 SE 8 12 11199 10597 3397 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 74 78 SE 8 12 11388 10787 3587 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 75 77 SE 8 12 11199 10597 3397 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 75 76 SW 4 8 11008 10428 3228 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 4 8 10183 8576 1376 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 4 8 8268 7412 212 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 4 8 7324 7200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 61 61 SW 4 8 7012 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 4 8 6554 7200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 4 8 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SW 4 8 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SW 4 8 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 SW 4 8 7324 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 67 71 SW 8 12 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 70 75 SW 8 12 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 72 77 SW 8 12 11199 10597 3397 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 74 79 SW 8 12 12642 10976 3776 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 75 79 SW 8 12 12642 10976 3776 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 75 77 SW 8 12 11199 10597 3397 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 10 16 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 10 16 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 16 8268 7412 212 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 16 7417 7200 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 16 7138 7200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 10 16 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 6 10 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 WSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 6 10 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 5 9 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 5 9 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SSW 5 9 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 SSW 5 9 5157 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 SSW 5 9 6130 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 SSW 5 9 7231 7200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 65 68 SW 6 10 8268 7412 212 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 67 71 SW 6 10 9272 8241 1041 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 69 73 SW 6 10 10450 8907 1707 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 71 75 SW 6 10 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 72 75 SW 6 10 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 73 75 SW 6 10 10818 9858 2658 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 72 73 WSW 9 13 10450 8907 1707 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 9 13 8941 7904 704 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 9 13 7582 7226 26 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 9 13 7231 7200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 9 13 6783 7200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 9 13 6130 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]