Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 31 31 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 42 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 44 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 45 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 45 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 40 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 E 18 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 34 34 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 E 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 E 15 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 E 15 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 E 15 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 E 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 SE 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 SE 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 SE 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 45 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 46 W 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 45 W 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 44 W 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 S 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 39 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 43 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 46 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 48 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 45 45 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 E 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 43 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 43 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 SE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 S 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 SW 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SE 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 33 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 36 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 39 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 41 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 40 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 39 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 NE 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 33 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 37 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 39 40 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 42 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 41 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 E 3 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 39 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 37 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 35 35 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 E 2 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 E 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]