Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 S 12 19 6258 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 S 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 S 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 S 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 SSW 26 40 6258 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 46 SSW 26 40 6988 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 45 SSW 26 40 6258 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 45 SW 26 40 6258 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 44 SW 26 40 5750 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 43 SW 26 40 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 SW 26 40 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 38 38 SW 26 40 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 SW 26 40 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 WSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 WSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 SW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 SW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 SW 19 29 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 SW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 SW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 SW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 31 31 SW 20 31 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 30 30 SW 20 31 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 30 30 SW 20 31 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 30 30 W 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 29 29 W 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 W 18 27 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 27 27 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 W 14 23 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 W 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 W 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 W 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 23 23 W 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 W 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 W 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 24 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 25 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 26 26 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 27 27 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 27 27 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 28 28 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 27 27 WNW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 26 SE 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 25 25 SE 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 24 24 SE 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 22 E 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 21 21 E 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 E 5 9 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 19 19 E 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 19 19 E 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 18 18 E 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 18 18 ESE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 18 18 ESE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 19 19 ESE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 SE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 SE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 SE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 21 21 SSE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 23 23 SSE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 25 25 SSE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 27 27 S 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 29 29 S 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 30 30 S 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 12 19 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 11 17 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 11 17 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 SSW 11 17 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 10 16 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 SW 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 SW 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 SW 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 34 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 35 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 36 36 SW 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 36 36 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 36 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 34 34 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 W 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 WNW 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 N 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 10 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 32 32 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 33 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 34 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 33 33 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 ENE 8 12 5630 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 ENE 9 13 5630 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]