Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SSW 5 9 5632 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 9 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 S 6 11 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 S 6 11 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 6 11 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 3 6 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 3 6 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 3 6 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 W 3 6 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 69 W 3 6 10180 8115 915 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 69 74 W 3 6 14242 11042 3842 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 72 77 W 5 9 15683 13621 6421 White 12
12 Noon Wed 73 79 W 5 9 16092 16092 8892 White 14
1 PM Wed 75 81 W 5 9 16500 16500 9300 White 16
2 PM Wed 77 82 SW 8 11 16704 16704 9504 White 17
3 PM Wed 78 82 SW 8 11 16704 16704 9504 White 17
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 8 11 16500 16500 9300 White 16
5 PM Wed 78 80 W 8 12 16296 16296 9096 White 15
6 PM Wed 77 78 W 8 12 15888 15888 8688 White 13
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 8 12 15273 11610 4410 White 10
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 13 11762 10103 2903 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 13 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 13 6779 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 4 8 5882 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 WSW 4 8 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 4 8 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 1 4 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 N 4 8 6779 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 N 4 8 10180 8115 915 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 70 74 N 4 8 14242 11042 3842 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 75 79 N 6 10 16092 16092 8892 White 14
12 Noon Thu 77 82 N 6 10 16704 16704 9504 White 17
1 PM Thu 78 83 N 6 10 16906 16906 9706 White 18
2 PM Thu 79 84 N 8 12 17109 17109 9909 White 19
3 PM Thu 80 84 N 8 12 17109 17109 9909 White 19
4 PM Thu 80 83 N 8 12 16906 16906 9706 White 18
5 PM Thu 80 82 N 9 12 16704 16704 9504 White 17
6 PM Thu 78 79 N 9 12 16092 16092 8892 White 14
7 PM Thu 76 76 N 9 12 15478 12371 5171 White 11
8 PM Thu 73 73 NW 8 11 12531 10641 3441 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 70 70 NW 8 11 10724 8964 1764 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 68 68 NW 8 11 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 66 66 N 5 9 8211 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 N 5 9 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 N 5 9 5882 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NNE 6 10 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 6 10 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 6 10 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 5 9 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 9 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 5 9 5882 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 NNE 6 10 9025 7200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 69 72 NNE 6 10 11762 10103 2903 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 72 76 NNE 6 10 15478 12371 5171 White 11
11 AM Fri 75 81 NE 6 10 16500 16500 9300 White 16
12 Noon Fri 77 84 NE 6 10 17109 17109 9909 White 19
1 PM Fri 79 87 NE 6 10 17712 17712 10512 White 22
2 PM Fri 81 88 N 6 11 17910 17910 10710 White 23
3 PM Fri 82 88 N 6 11 17910 17910 10710 White 23
4 PM Fri 82 87 N 6 11 17712 17712 10512 White 22
5 PM Fri 82 84 N 6 10 17109 17109 9909 White 19
6 PM Fri 81 82 N 6 10 16704 16704 9504 White 17
7 PM Fri 79 79 N 6 10 16092 16092 8892 White 14
8 PM Fri 77 77 NNE 4 8 15683 13621 6421 White 12
9 PM Fri 74 74 NNE 4 8 14242 11042 3842 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 72 72 NNE 4 8 11762 10103 2903 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 69 69 NNE 5 9 10180 8115 915 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NNE 5 9 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 5 9 8211 7200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 4 8 6132 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NNE 4 8 5632 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 NNE 4 8 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 NNE 4 8 5531 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 4 8 5882 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 4 8 8211 7200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 70 71 ENE 6 10 11105 9543 2343 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 74 77 ENE 6 10 15683 13621 6421 White 12
10 AM Sat 77 82 ENE 6 10 16704 16704 9504 White 17
11 AM Sat 80 86 ENE 6 10 17514 17514 10314 White 21
12 Noon Sat 82 90 ENE 6 10 18305 18305 11105 White 25
1 PM Sat 84 92 ENE 6 10 18711 18711 11511 White 27
2 PM Sat 85 92 ENE 6 10 18711 18711 11511 White 27
3 PM Sat 86 92 ENE 6 10 18711 18711 11511 White 27
4 PM Sat 86 90 ENE 6 10 18305 18305 11105 White 25
5 PM Sat 86 88 NE 4 8 17910 17910 10710 White 23
6 PM Sat 85 86 NE 4 8 17514 17514 10314 White 21
7 PM Sat 83 83 NE 4 8 16906 16906 9706 White 18
8 PM Sat 81 81 NNE 5 9 16500 16500 9300 White 16
9 PM Sat 78 78 NNE 5 9 15888 15888 8688 White 13
10 PM Sat 75 75 NNE 5 9 15273 11610 4410 White 10
11 PM Sat 72 72 NE 6 10 11762 10103 2903 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NE 6 10 11105 9543 2343 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 69 69 NE 6 10 10180 8115 915 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 3 6 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 3 6 9025 7200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 3 6 6779 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 5 9 6779 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 5 9 8211 7200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 5 9 10180 8115 915 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 73 74 E 9 12 14242 11042 3842 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 77 80 E 9 12 16296 16296 9096 White 15
10 AM Sun 81 86 E 9 12 17514 17514 10314 White 21
11 AM Sun 84 91 ESE 10 14 18503 18503 11303 White 26
12 Noon Sun 86 94 ESE 10 14 19115 19115 11915 White 29
1 PM Sun 88 96 ESE 10 14 19503 19503 12303 White 31
2 PM Sun 89 96 ESE 9 13 19503 19503 12303 White 31
3 PM Sun 90 96 ESE 9 13 19503 19503 12303 White 31
4 PM Sun 90 95 ESE 9 13 19310 19310 12110 White 30
5 PM Sun 90 93 E 6 10 18919 18919 11719 White 28
6 PM Sun 89 90 E 6 10 18305 18305 11105 White 25
7 PM Sun 87 87 E 6 10 17712 17712 10512 White 22
8 PM Sun 84 84 E 8 11 17109 17109 9909 White 19
9 PM Sun 81 81 E 8 11 16500 16500 9300 White 16
10 PM Sun 78 78 E 8 11 15888 15888 8688 White 13
11 PM Sun 76 76 E 9 12 15478 12371 5171 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 E 9 12 12531 10641 3441 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 71 71 E 9 12 11105 9543 2343 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 4 8 10724 8964 1764 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 4 8 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 4 8 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 9613 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 5 9 10724 8964 1764 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 72 72 ENE 5 9 11762 10103 2903 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 76 77 E 8 12 15683 13621 6421 White 12
9 AM Mon 80 83 E 8 12 16906 16906 9706 White 18
10 AM Mon 84 89 E 8 12 18107 18107 10907 White 24
11 AM Mon 88 95 SE 10 14 19310 19310 12110 White 30
12 Noon Mon 90 98 SE 10 14 19890 19890 12690 White 33
1 PM Mon 92 100 SE 10 14 20272 20272 13072 White 35
2 PM Mon 93 101 SSE 9 12 20461 20461 13261 White 36
3 PM Mon 94 100 SSE 9 12 20272 20272 13072 White 35
4 PM Mon 94 99 SSE 9 12 20081 20081 12881 White 34
5 PM Mon 93 96 S 6 10 19503 19503 12303 White 31
6 PM Mon 91 92 S 6 10 18711 18711 11511 White 27
7 PM Mon 89 89 S 6 10 18107 18107 10907 White 24
8 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 8 11 17514 17514 10314 White 21
9 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 8 11 16704 16704 9504 White 17
10 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 8 11 16092 16092 8892 White 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]