Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 53 53 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 58 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 61 63 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 65 69 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 68 73 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 71 76 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 72 77 WSW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 73 77 WSW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 74 77 WSW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 53 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 57 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 62 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 68 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 72 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 73 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 69 72 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 71 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 40 41 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 43 45 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 51 W 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 50 55 W 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 52 57 W 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 54 59 WNW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 59 WNW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 58 WNW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 56 WNW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 NNE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NNE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 NNE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 45 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 51 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 58 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 63 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 66 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 62 67 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 63 67 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 67 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 64 NNE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 NNE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 44 44 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 50 51 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 56 58 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 65 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 69 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 66 71 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 72 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 68 72 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 67 70 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 66 67 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 63 63 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 53 54 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 60 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 62 65 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 65 69 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 66 71 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 67 71 ENE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 68 71 ENE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 68 70 ENE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 67 68 N 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 61 61 N 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 58 58 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 56 56 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]