Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Altitude (f): 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 28 28 SW 3 5459 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 SW 3 5459 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 SW 3 5459 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 SW 3 5459 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 SW 3 5459 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 35 SW 3 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 37 SW 7 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 39 39 SW 7 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 41 41 SW 7 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 42 42 W 10 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 12 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 13 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 13 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 13 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 10 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 10 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 10 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 9 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 9 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 9 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 W 6 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 W 6 5666 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 W 2 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 W 2 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 43 44 W 2 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 45 47 W 3 8762 7955 755 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 48 51 W 3 9638 8944 1744 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 51 54 W 3 10664 9594 2394 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 53 56 W 5 11330 10274 3074 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 55 57 W 5 11692 10609 3409 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 56 57 W 5 11692 10609 3409 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 10998 9936 2736 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 10325 9347 2147 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 9169 8540 1340 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 8559 7735 535 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 5 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 43 43 W 5 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 43 43 W 2 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 W 2 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 2 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 2 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 3 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 39 39 SW 3 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 38 38 SW 3 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 39 39 SW 3 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 42 42 SW 3 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 46 47 SW 3 8762 7955 755 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 51 53 W 6 10325 9347 2147 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 54 56 W 6 11330 10274 3074 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 56 58 W 6 12056 10941 3741 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 58 60 W 6 13464 11619 4419 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 59 60 W 6 13464 11619 4419 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 58 59 W 6 12564 11269 4069 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 11692 10609 3409 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 3 10664 9594 2394 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 3 9638 8944 1744 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 3 8966 8337 1137 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 3 8559 7735 535 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 3 8354 7522 322 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 6 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 6 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 6396 7200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 N 6 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 41 42 N 6 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 45 47 NE 6 8762 7955 755 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 49 51 NE 6 9638 8944 1744 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 51 54 NE 6 10664 9594 2394 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 53 55 NE 6 10998 9936 2736 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 54 56 NE 6 11330 10274 3074 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 54 55 NE 6 10998 9936 2736 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 8 9983 9146 1946 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 8 9371 8742 1542 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 8 8762 7955 755 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 44 44 NE 8 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 8 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 8 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 7 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 7 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 7 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 7 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 7 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 7 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 36 36 NE 6 6396 7200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 35 35 NE 6 6212 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 5666 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 5666 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 6 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 6 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 44 45 E 6 8354 7522 322 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 47 49 E 6 9169 8540 1340 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 49 51 E 6 9638 8944 1744 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 51 52 E 6 9983 9146 1946 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 52 53 E 6 10325 9347 2147 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 53 53 E 6 10325 9347 2147 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 9983 9146 1946 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 9371 8742 1542 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 8966 8337 1137 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 45 45 E 5 8354 7522 322 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 5 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 3 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 40 40 E 3 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 39 39 E 3 7023 7200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 6815 7200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 6919 7200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 44 45 SE 3 8354 7522 322 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 48 50 S 6 9371 8742 1542 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 51 54 S 6 10664 9594 2394 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 53 56 S 6 11330 10274 3074 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 55 58 S 6 12056 10941 3741 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 56 58 S 6 12056 10941 3741 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 56 57 S 6 11692 10609 3409 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 11330 10274 3074 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 7 10325 9347 2147 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 9371 8742 1542 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 7 8762 7955 755 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 8354 7522 322 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 7 7990 7250 50 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 7747 7200 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 6 7538 7200 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 7264 7200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 7127 7200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 7023 7200 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]