Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 60 61 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 64 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 68 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 66 71 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 68 74 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 75 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 70 73 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 68 70 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 53 53 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 54 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 54 56 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 57 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 60 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 57 60 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 59 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 57 58 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 54 55 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 44 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 46 48 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 49 53 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 57 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 61 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 57 62 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 58 63 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 62 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 61 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 51 52 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 57 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 63 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 67 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 65 71 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 71 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 67 72 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 67 70 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 68 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 62 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 67 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 70 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 67 72 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 68 73 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 69 73 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 69 72 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 68 69 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 57 58 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 59 61 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 61 65 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 68 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 65 70 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 71 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 67 71 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 67 70 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 66 68 ESE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 64 64 ESE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]