Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 WNW 12 13 6041 6900 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 12 13 6041 6900 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 10 11 6041 6900 0 White 3
3 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 10 11 5818 6900 0 White 2
4 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 10 11 6041 6900 0 White 3
5 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 5 6 5818 6900 0 White 2
6 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 6 6265 6900 0 White 4
7 AM Sat 36 36 WNW 5 6 5818 6900 0 White 2
8 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 6041 6900 0 White 3
9 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 6041 6900 0 White 3
10 AM Sat 37 37 WNW 4 5 6041 6900 0 White 3
11 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 6 6265 6900 0 White 4
12 Noon Sat 39 40 WNW 5 6 6712 6900 0 White 6
1 PM Sat 39 40 WNW 5 6 6712 6900 0 White 6
2 PM Sat 40 41 WNW 5 6 6935 6900 0 White 7
3 PM Sat 40 41 WNW 5 6 6935 6900 0 White 7
4 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 5 6 6935 6900 0 White 7
5 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 5 6 6935 6900 0 White 7
6 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 5 6 7156 7101 201 White 8
7 PM Sat 40 40 WNW 5 6 6712 6900 0 White 6
8 PM Sat 40 40 NW 5 6 6712 6900 0 White 6
9 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 6 6489 6900 0 White 5
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 6 6265 6900 0 White 4
11 PM Sat 38 38 NNW 4 5 6265 6900 0 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NNW 4 5 6489 6900 0 White 5
1 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 4 5 6265 6900 0 White 4
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 6265 6900 0 White 4
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 6265 6900 0 White 4
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 6041 6900 0 White 3
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 6041 6900 0 White 3
6 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 4 6265 6900 0 White 4
7 AM Sun 37 37 N 3 4 6041 6900 0 White 3
8 AM Sun 39 39 NNW 3 4 6489 6900 0 White 5
9 AM Sun 41 41 NNW 3 4 6935 6900 0 White 7
10 AM Sun 45 46 NNW 3 4 8030 8030 1130 White 12
11 AM Sun 48 51 WNW 4 5 9116 9116 2216 White 17
12 Noon Sun 50 54 WNW 4 5 9764 9764 2864 White 19
1 PM Sun 52 56 WNW 4 5 10191 10191 3291 White 21
2 PM Sun 54 58 NW 5 6 10614 10614 3714 White 23
3 PM Sun 55 58 NW 5 6 10614 10614 3714 White 23
4 PM Sun 56 58 NW 5 6 10614 10614 3714 White 23
5 PM Sun 56 57 NNW 5 6 10403 10403 3503 White 22
6 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 5 6 9764 9764 2864 White 19
7 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 5 6 9332 9332 2432 White 17
8 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 5 6 8900 8900 2000 White 16
9 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 5 6 8683 8683 1783 White 15
10 PM Sun 48 48 NNW 5 6 8466 8466 1566 White 14
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 4 5 8248 8248 1348 White 13
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 4 5 8030 8030 1130 White 12
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 7812 7812 912 White 11
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 7812 7812 912 White 11
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 7812 7812 912 White 11
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 5 7812 7812 912 White 11
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 7812 7812 912 White 11
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 7812 7812 912 White 11
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 10 7812 7812 912 White 11
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 9 8030 8030 1130 White 12
9 AM Mon 50 51 N 9 9 9116 9116 2216 White 17
10 AM Mon 53 55 N 9 9 9979 9979 3079 White 20
11 AM Mon 57 60 NE 5 8 11036 11036 4136 White 25
12 Noon Mon 59 63 NE 5 8 11662 11662 4762 White 28
1 PM Mon 60 65 NE 5 8 12076 12076 5176 White 30
2 PM Mon 61 66 ENE 5 9 12282 12282 5382 White 31
3 PM Mon 62 66 ENE 5 9 12282 12282 5382 White 31
4 PM Mon 63 65 ENE 5 9 12076 12076 5176 White 30
5 PM Mon 63 64 NNE 8 9 11869 11869 4969 White 29
6 PM Mon 61 61 NNE 8 9 11245 11245 4345 White 26
7 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 8 9 10825 10825 3925 White 24
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 5 6 10191 10191 3291 White 21
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 6 9764 9764 2864 White 19
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 6 9332 9332 2432 White 17
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 6 8 8900 8900 2000 White 16
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 6 8 8900 8900 2000 White 16
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 8 8683 8683 1783 White 15
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 9 8683 8683 1783 White 15
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 9 8466 8466 1566 White 14
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 9 8466 8466 1566 White 14
5 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 9 9 8248 8248 1348 White 13
6 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 9 9 8248 8248 1348 White 13
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 9 9 8466 8466 1566 White 14
8 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 9 10 8900 8900 2000 White 16
9 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 9 10 9549 9549 2649 White 18
10 AM Tue 56 57 NNE 9 10 10403 10403 3503 White 22
11 AM Tue 60 62 ESE 9 10 11454 11454 4554 White 27
12 Noon Tue 61 64 ESE 9 10 11869 11869 4969 White 29
1 PM Tue 62 65 ESE 9 10 12076 12076 5176 White 30
2 PM Tue 63 66 SE 9 13 12282 12282 5382 White 31
3 PM Tue 64 66 SE 9 13 12282 12282 5382 White 31
4 PM Tue 64 66 SE 9 13 12282 12282 5382 White 31
5 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 9 14 11662 11662 4762 White 28
6 PM Tue 61 61 SSE 9 14 11245 11245 4345 White 26
7 PM Tue 58 58 SSE 9 14 10614 10614 3714 White 23
8 PM Tue 56 56 SSE 9 14 10191 10191 3291 White 21
9 PM Tue 54 54 SSE 9 14 9764 9764 2864 White 19
10 PM Tue 53 53 SSE 9 14 9549 9549 2649 White 18
11 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 9 11 9116 9116 2216 White 17
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 ENE 9 11 9116 9116 2216 White 17
1 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 9 11 8900 8900 2000 White 16
2 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 9 11 8900 8900 2000 White 16
3 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 9 11 8683 8683 1783 White 15
4 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 9 11 8466 8466 1566 White 14
5 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 8248 8248 1348 White 13
6 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 8248 8248 1348 White 13
7 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 8248 8248 1348 White 13
8 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 12 14 8248 8248 1348 White 13
9 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 12 14 8683 8683 1783 White 15
10 AM Wed 50 51 ESE 12 14 9116 9116 2216 White 17
11 AM Wed 51 52 S 20 31 9332 9332 2432 White 17
12 Noon Wed 52 53 S 20 31 9549 9549 2649 White 18
1 PM Wed 52 53 S 20 31 9549 9549 2649 White 18
2 PM Wed 51 52 S 20 31 9332 9332 2432 White 17
3 PM Wed 50 51 S 20 31 9116 9116 2216 White 17
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 20 31 8683 8683 1783 White 15
5 PM Wed 47 47 SW 24 32 8248 8248 1348 White 13
6 PM Wed 46 46 SW 24 32 8030 8030 1130 White 12
7 PM Wed 45 45 SW 24 32 7812 7812 912 White 11
8 PM Wed 43 43 SW 24 32 7374 7374 474 White 9
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 24 32 7374 7374 474 White 9
10 PM Wed 42 42 SW 24 32 7156 7101 201 White 8
11 PM Wed 42 42 SW 21 26 7156 7101 201 White 8
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SW 21 26 6935 6900 0 White 7
1 AM Thu 40 40 SW 21 26 6712 6900 0 White 6
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 21 26 6712 6900 0 White 6
3 AM Thu 39 39 SW 21 26 6489 6900 0 White 5
4 AM Thu 38 38 SW 21 26 6265 6900 0 White 4
5 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 17 20 6041 6900 0 White 3
6 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5818 6900 0 White 2
7 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5818 6900 0 White 2
8 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 17 20 5593 6900 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 17 20 5593 6900 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 17 20 5818 6900 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 18 25 5818 6900 0 White 2
12 Noon Thu 37 37 WSW 18 25 6041 6900 0 White 3
1 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 18 25 6265 6900 0 White 4
2 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 18 25 6265 6900 0 White 4
3 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 18 25 6489 6900 0 White 5
4 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 18 25 6489 6900 0 White 5
5 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 20 26 6265 6900 0 White 4
6 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 20 26 6265 6900 0 White 4
7 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 20 26 6041 6900 0 White 3
8 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 20 26 5818 6900 0 White 2
9 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 20 26 5818 6900 0 White 2
10 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 20 26 5593 6900 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]