Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 69 70 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 70 73 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 72 76 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 73 79 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 76 84 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 78 86 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 79 86 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 80 86 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 80 85 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 78 82 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 77 79 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 75 75 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 73 73 NNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 70 70 NNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 68 68 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 66 66 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 65 65 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 64 64 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 63 63 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 65 66 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 68 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 67 71 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 74 ESE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 69 77 ESE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 71 79 ESE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 72 80 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 73 80 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 78 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 73 76 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 72 74 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 70 70 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 67 67 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 61 61 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 58 58 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 62 63 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 63 65 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 65 69 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 66 72 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 68 76 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 70 78 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 71 79 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 79 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 73 78 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 73 76 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 72 74 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 65 65 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 61 61 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 62 62 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 64 65 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 68 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 68 72 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 70 76 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 73 81 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 75 83 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 77 85 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 78 85 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 84 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 79 82 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 78 80 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 63 63 NNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 69 70 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 71 73 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 74 78 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 76 82 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 78 86 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 81 89 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 90 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 83 90 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 83 88 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 83 86 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 82 84 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 68 68 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 67 67 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 66 66 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 69 69 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 71 72 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 72 74 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 78 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 76 82 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 78 86 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 81 89 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 82 90 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 83 90 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 83 88 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 82 85 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 81 83 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]