Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 E 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 50 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 SE 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 52 SE 5 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 SE 5 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 E 6 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 S 2 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 47 S 2 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 48 S 2 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 49 S 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 48 S 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 49 S 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 49 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 NE 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 N 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 N 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 N 5 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 NE 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 NE 3 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 52 NE 3 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 3 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 N 3 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 49 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 50 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 51 SE 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 SE 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 SE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 50 W 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NW 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 NW 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NW 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NW 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 48 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 50 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 48 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 7 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 N 9 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 NE 6 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 51 NE 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 51 NE 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 N 6 5117 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 N 6 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 N 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 N 6 5262 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 8 5190 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 8 5072 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]