Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Altitude (f): 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 6973 6900 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 42 42 NW 8 7077 6900 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 8 7181 6900 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 10 7181 6900 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 44 44 NW 10 7404 6968 68 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 45 45 NW 10 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 46 47 W 10 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 47 48 W 10 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 47 48 W 10 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 48 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 48 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 48 48 NW 12 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 12 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 47 47 NW 12 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 9 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 9 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 45 45 NW 9 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 7404 6968 68 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 7404 6968 68 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 7404 6968 68 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 7404 6968 68 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 45 45 N 7 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 51 52 N 6 9261 8633 1733 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 53 55 NW 5 10133 9235 2335 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 55 58 NW 5 11137 10079 3179 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 56 59 NW 5 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 58 61 N 7 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 59 61 N 7 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 60 61 N 7 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 11838 10745 3845 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 11137 10079 3179 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 7 10471 9434 2534 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 10133 9235 2335 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 9462 8834 1934 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 7 9060 8432 1532 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 7 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 9060 8432 1532 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 7 9261 8633 1733 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 54 55 N 7 10133 9235 2335 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 56 58 N 8 11137 10079 3179 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 58 61 N 8 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 59 62 N 8 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 61 64 N 8 13890 12115 5215 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 62 64 N 8 13890 12115 5215 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 62 63 N 8 13741 11759 4859 White 27
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 10 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 10 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 10806 9741 2841 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 10133 9235 2335 Blue 19
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 10 9462 8834 1934 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 9060 8432 1532 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 N 10 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 10 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 10 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 8858 8178 1278 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 52 53 N 10 9462 8834 1934 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 54 56 NE 12 10471 9434 2534 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 55 58 NE 12 11137 10079 3179 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 57 60 NE 12 11838 10745 3845 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 58 61 NE 12 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 59 61 NE 12 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 60 61 NE 12 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 60 60 NE 10 11838 10745 3845 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 59 59 NE 10 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 58 58 NE 10 11137 10079 3179 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 56 56 NE 10 10471 9434 2534 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 10 9792 9035 2135 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 10 9261 8633 1733 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 12 8858 8178 1278 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 12 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 45 45 NE 12 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 12 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 8656 7822 922 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 9060 8432 1532 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 53 54 NE 12 9792 9035 2135 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 55 57 NE 14 10806 9741 2841 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 57 59 NE 14 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 59 62 NE 14 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 60 62 NE 14 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 61 63 NE 14 13741 11759 4859 White 27
4 PM Thu 62 63 NE 14 13741 11759 4859 White 27
5 PM Thu 62 62 E 9 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 61 61 E 9 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 60 60 E 9 11838 10745 3845 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 59 59 E 9 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 57 57 E 9 10806 9741 2841 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 9 10133 9235 2335 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 7 9462 8834 1934 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 7 9060 8432 1532 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 8858 8178 1278 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 3 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 48 48 NW 3 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 3 8858 8178 1278 Blue 14
8 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 9261 8633 1733 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 9792 9035 2135 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 56 57 NW 3 10806 9741 2841 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 58 60 W 5 11838 10745 3845 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 60 63 W 5 13741 11759 4859 White 27
1 PM Fri 62 65 W 5 13968 12642 5742 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 5 14045 13574 6674 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 5 13968 12642 5742 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 5 13890 12115 5215 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 12782 11399 4499 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 12214 11073 4173 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 11474 10414 3514 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 10471 9434 2534 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 9792 9035 2135 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 9261 8633 1733 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 50 50 N 6 8858 8178 1278 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 6 8453 7642 742 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 8222 7385 485 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 6 7837 7174 274 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 7656 7071 171 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 7656 7071 171 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]