Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 S 3 5 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 S 3 4 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 S 3 4 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 S 3 4 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 4 6 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 4 6 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 4 6 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 SSE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 46 SSE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 48 SSE 8 11 5523 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 48 SSE 8 10 5523 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 49 SSE 8 10 6590 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 SSE 8 10 6590 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 ESE 8 11 5523 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 ESE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 ESE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 SE 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 SE 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 SE 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 ESE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 ESE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 ESE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 ESE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 ESE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 ESE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 SE 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 SE 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 SE 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 SE 11 16 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 38 SSE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 37 SSE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 35 SSE 12 18 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 34 34 W 14 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 34 34 W 14 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 35 35 W 14 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 W 16 21 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 W 14 20 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 W 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 W 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 W 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 10 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 12 17 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 12 17 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 30 30 WSW 12 17 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 31 31 W 18 25 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 31 31 W 18 25 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 31 31 W 18 25 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 31 31 WNW 20 28 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 20 28 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 WNW 20 28 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 W 16 23 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 W 16 23 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 W 16 23 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 W 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 W 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 W 13 19 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 WNW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 WNW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 WNW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 NW 11 14 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 27 NNE 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 29 30 NNE 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 30 31 NNE 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 31 32 E 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 33 E 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 33 33 E 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 32 32 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 31 31 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 NE 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 NNW 6 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 NW 8 10 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 34 34 S 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 34 34 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 37 37 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 S 9 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 36 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 38 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 39 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 8 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5049 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NNW 6 11 5049 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]