Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 ENE 10 16 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 10 16 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 E 10 16 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 10 16 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 10 16 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 S 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 S 5 9 3594 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 68 S 5 9 4881 3876 176 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 71 74 NE 3 6 7166 6621 2921 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 75 79 NE 3 6 7984 7337 3637 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 77 82 NE 3 6 8965 7939 4239 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 80 84 WSW 4 8 10163 8589 4889 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 81 84 WSW 4 8 10163 8589 4889 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 81 83 WSW 4 8 9285 8265 4565 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 80 81 W 6 10 8641 7609 3909 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 10 7256 6842 3142 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 10 6418 4434 734 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 10 4441 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 SW 6 10 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 S 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 S 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 SSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 65 SSW 3 6 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 69 NNW 4 8 5584 4155 455 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 70 73 NNW 4 8 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 72 76 NNW 4 8 7347 7062 3362 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 73 77 NW 8 12 7438 7155 3455 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 74 77 NW 8 12 7438 7155 3455 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 74 76 NW 8 12 7347 7062 3362 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 72 73 NNW 10 16 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 69 69 NNW 10 16 5584 4155 455 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 65 65 NNW 10 16 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 N 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NNE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 ESE 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 E 4 8 4441 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 72 E 4 8 6864 5526 1826 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 72 76 E 4 8 7347 7062 3362 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 75 79 NE 6 10 7984 7337 3637 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 77 80 NE 6 10 8314 7427 3727 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 78 80 NE 6 10 8314 7427 3727 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 77 78 NNE 8 12 7651 7246 3546 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 74 74 NNE 8 12 7166 6621 2921 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 71 71 NNE 8 12 6642 4863 1163 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 67 67 NNE 8 12 4441 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 NNE 8 12 3594 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NNE 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 ENE 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 ENE 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 ENE 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 E 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 12 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 ESE 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 ESE 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 ESE 6 10 4881 3876 176 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 70 73 SE 2 5 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 74 78 SE 2 5 7651 7246 3546 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 78 83 SE 2 5 9285 8265 4565 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 81 86 SE 2 5 10614 9228 5528 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 83 87 SE 2 5 10800 9708 6008 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 83 85 SE 2 5 10444 8910 5210 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 82 83 WNW 4 8 9285 8265 4565 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 4 8 7651 7246 3546 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 73 73 WNW 4 8 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 4 8 4881 3876 176 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 4 8 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SSE 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 SSE 4 8 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 SSE 4 8 4881 3876 176 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 70 73 W 5 9 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 73 77 W 5 9 7438 7155 3455 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 75 80 W 5 9 8314 7427 3727 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 77 82 W 5 9 8965 7939 4239 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 78 82 W 5 9 8965 7939 4239 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 78 80 W 5 9 8314 7427 3727 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 77 78 WNW 6 10 7651 7246 3546 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 6 10 7075 6399 2699 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 69 69 WNW 6 10 5584 4155 455 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 6 10 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 WNW 6 10 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 S 3 6 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 65 S 3 6 3878 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 70 NNW 4 8 6418 4434 734 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 71 75 NNW 4 8 7256 6842 3142 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 73 77 NNW 4 8 7438 7155 3455 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 79 NNW 4 8 7984 7337 3637 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 76 79 NNW 4 8 7984 7337 3637 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 76 78 NNW 4 8 7651 7246 3546 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 75 76 NW 5 9 7347 7062 3362 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 9 6864 5526 1826 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 9 4441 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 NW 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 5 9 3556 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]