Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SSW 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 2 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 2 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 2 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 WNW 1 2 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 N 1 1 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 71 N 2 2 5341 4005 305 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 72 77 NNW 3 3 8107 5877 2177 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 82 NNW 4 4 11005 9418 5718 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 79 87 NNW 5 5 12875 12073 8373 White 17
1 PM Wed 82 90 NNW 5 6 13488 13488 9788 White 20
2 PM Wed 84 92 NNW 6 7 13894 13894 10194 White 22
3 PM Wed 84 89 NW 6 8 13283 13283 9583 White 19
4 PM Wed 83 85 WNW 7 8 12457 10920 7220 White 15
5 PM Wed 83 84 WNW 7 8 12248 10486 6786 White 14
6 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 6 8 10599 8855 5155 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 78 78 SW 6 9 8950 6117 2417 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 76 76 S 5 9 6743 5635 1935 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 75 75 S 4 8 6135 5460 1760 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 73 73 S 3 6 5649 4868 1168 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 2 5 5467 4116 416 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 S 2 4 3894 3760 60 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 S 1 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SSE 1 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 1 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 1 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 1 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 1 2 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 1 2 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 NNE 0 1 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 NNE 2 2 4005 3760 60 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 74 N 3 3 5893 5335 1635 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 75 81 N 4 4 10599 8855 5155 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 79 87 ESE 4 5 12875 12073 8373 White 17
1 PM Thu 82 90 SW 4 5 13488 13488 9788 White 20
2 PM Thu 85 93 N 4 5 14098 14098 10398 White 23
3 PM Thu 85 92 NNW 5 6 13894 13894 10194 White 22
4 PM Thu 85 90 NNW 6 7 13488 13488 9788 White 20
5 PM Thu 85 89 NW 7 8 13283 13283 9583 White 19
6 PM Thu 84 86 NW 5 7 12666 11324 7624 White 16
7 PM Thu 82 82 NW 4 5 11005 9418 5718 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 80 80 NW 2 4 10070 7942 4242 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 2 4 8950 6117 2417 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 75 75 SW 2 4 6135 5460 1760 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 2 5 5649 4868 1168 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 S 2 4 4117 3782 82 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 4 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 2 3 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 1 2 3760 3760 60 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 NNE 1 2 4005 3760 60 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 74 NNE 2 2 5893 5335 1635 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 75 80 N 2 3 10070 7942 4242 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 79 85 N 3 4 12457 10920 7220 White 15
12 Noon Fri 82 90 ESE 4 4 13488 13488 9788 White 20
1 PM Fri 85 93 SW 4 4 14098 14098 10398 White 23
2 PM Fri 88 96 N 4 5 14705 14705 11005 White 26
3 PM Fri 89 96 NNW 4 5 14705 14705 11005 White 26
4 PM Fri 90 95 NNW 4 5 14504 14504 10804 White 25
5 PM Fri 90 93 NNW 4 5 14098 14098 10398 White 23
6 PM Fri 89 91 NW 4 5 13691 13691 9991 White 21
7 PM Fri 87 87 NW 3 5 12875 12073 8373 White 17
8 PM Fri 85 85 NW 2 5 12457 10920 7220 White 15
9 PM Fri 84 84 W 2 5 12248 10486 6786 White 14
10 PM Fri 83 83 SW 2 5 12039 9962 6262 White 13
11 PM Fri 81 81 S 2 6 10599 8855 5155 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]