Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 2 5 5170 4114 414 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 40 40 NE 2 5 4815 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 38 38 N 3 6 4119 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 N 3 6 2776 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 N 3 6 2776 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 E 2 5 2776 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 E 2 5 2776 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 E 2 5 3412 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 41 N 2 5 5170 4114 414 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 43 45 N 2 5 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 49 52 N 2 5 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 53 58 N 4 8 7857 7007 3307 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 58 65 N 4 8 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 60 68 N 4 8 11608 10173 6473 White 30
2 PM Thu 63 71 NNW 5 9 12225 11992 8292 White 33
3 PM Thu 66 72 NNW 5 9 12428 12428 8728 White 34
4 PM Thu 67 72 NNW 5 9 12428 12428 8728 White 34
5 PM Thu 67 70 NW 8 12 12022 11299 7599 White 32
6 PM Thu 68 69 NW 8 12 11815 10746 7046 White 31
7 PM Thu 66 66 NW 8 12 10884 9266 5566 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 62 62 NNW 5 9 8928 8087 4387 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 56 56 NNW 5 9 7313 6602 2902 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 52 52 NNW 5 9 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 3 6 6279 6044 2344 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 3 6 6279 6044 2344 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 3 6 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 3 6 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 3 6 5901 5152 1452 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 3 6 5827 4802 1102 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 43 43 W 3 6 5827 4802 1102 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 3 6 5526 4460 760 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 3 6 5827 4802 1102 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 46 46 W 3 6 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 48 49 W 3 6 6279 6044 2344 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 53 55 W 3 6 7038 6526 2826 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 56 58 WNW 5 9 7857 7007 3307 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 58 61 WNW 5 9 8662 7819 4119 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 60 63 WNW 5 9 9352 8353 4653 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 62 65 WNW 8 12 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 63 65 WNW 8 12 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 62 63 WNW 8 12 9352 8353 4653 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 61 62 NW 8 12 8928 8087 4387 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 8 12 8396 7550 3850 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 12 7857 7007 3307 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 10 7313 6602 2902 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 6 10 6761 6449 2749 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 6 10 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 50 50 NNW 6 10 6368 6119 2419 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NNW 6 10 6201 5970 2270 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 47 47 NNW 6 10 6125 5896 2196 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 10 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 6 10 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 6 10 5901 5152 1452 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 44 44 NW 4 8 5901 5152 1452 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 43 43 NW 4 8 5827 4802 1102 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 42 42 NW 4 8 5526 4460 760 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 43 43 NW 5 9 5827 4802 1102 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 44 45 NW 5 9 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 46 48 NW 5 9 6201 5970 2270 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 49 53 NNW 6 10 6609 6360 2660 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 52 56 NNW 6 10 7313 6602 2902 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 56 61 NNW 6 10 8662 7819 4119 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 58 64 NW 9 13 9799 8618 4918 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 60 65 NW 9 13 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 61 65 NW 9 13 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 61 63 NNW 10 16 9352 8353 4653 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 60 61 NNW 10 16 8662 7819 4119 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 59 59 NNW 10 16 8127 7279 3579 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 57 57 NNW 9 13 7586 6733 3033 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 9 13 6761 6449 2749 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 9 13 6368 6119 2419 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 5 9 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 5 9 5901 5152 1452 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 9 5526 4460 760 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 2 5 5170 4114 414 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 2 5 4815 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 39 39 ENE 2 5 4469 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 39 39 ESE 2 5 4469 3700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 40 40 ESE 2 5 4815 3700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 41 41 ESE 2 5 5170 4114 414 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 44 45 NNE 2 3 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 49 52 NNE 2 3 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 54 58 NNE 2 3 7857 7007 3307 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 59 65 N 3 4 10304 8881 5181 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 63 70 N 3 4 12022 11299 7599 White 32
1 PM Sun 66 74 N 3 4 12832 12832 9132 White 36
2 PM Sun 69 76 NNW 6 11 13236 13236 9536 White 38
3 PM Sun 71 77 NNW 6 11 13438 13438 9738 White 39
4 PM Sun 72 77 NNW 6 11 13438 13438 9738 White 39
5 PM Sun 72 75 NNW 10 14 13035 13035 9335 White 37
6 PM Sun 71 72 NNW 10 14 12428 12428 8728 White 34
7 PM Sun 69 69 NNW 10 14 11815 10746 7046 White 31
8 PM Sun 66 66 NNW 9 12 10884 9266 5566 Blue 28
9 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 9 12 8928 8087 4387 Blue 24
10 PM Sun 58 58 NNW 9 12 7857 7007 3307 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 54 54 NNW 4 6 6761 6449 2749 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NNW 4 6 6457 6194 2494 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 4 6 6368 6119 2419 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 4 6201 5970 2270 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 4 6125 5896 2196 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 4 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 2 3 5976 5504 1804 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 46 46 ESE 2 3 6050 5822 2122 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 48 48 ESE 2 3 6201 5970 2270 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 51 52 NNE 2 3 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 56 59 NNE 2 3 8127 7279 3579 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 61 66 NNE 2 3 10884 9266 5566 Blue 28
11 AM Mon 66 72 N 3 5 12428 12428 8728 White 34
12 Noon Mon 70 77 N 3 5 13438 13438 9738 White 39
1 PM Mon 73 81 N 3 5 14240 14240 10540 White 43
2 PM Mon 75 83 NNW 8 12 14634 14634 10934 White 45
3 PM Mon 77 83 NNW 8 12 14634 14634 10934 White 45
4 PM Mon 78 83 NNW 8 12 14634 14634 10934 White 45
5 PM Mon 78 81 NW 11 16 14240 14240 10540 White 43
6 PM Mon 77 78 NW 11 16 13639 13639 9939 White 40
7 PM Mon 74 74 NW 11 16 12832 12832 9132 White 36
8 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 10 13 12225 11992 8292 White 33
9 PM Mon 66 66 NNW 10 13 10884 9266 5566 Blue 28
10 PM Mon 61 61 NNW 10 13 8662 7819 4119 Blue 23
11 PM Mon 57 57 NW 4 6 7586 6733 3033 Blue 19
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NW 4 6 7038 6526 2826 Blue 17
1 AM Tue 53 53 NW 4 6 6609 6360 2660 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 3 4 6533 6271 2571 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 50 50 NNW 3 4 6368 6119 2419 Blue 12
4 AM Tue 49 49 NNW 3 4 6279 6044 2344 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 2 3 6201 5970 2270 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 2 3 6279 6044 2344 Blue 11
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 2 3 6368 6119 2419 Blue 12
8 AM Tue 53 54 NNW 2 4 6761 6449 2749 Blue 16
9 AM Tue 57 59 NNW 2 4 8127 7279 3579 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 61 64 NNW 2 4 9799 8618 4918 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 65 69 NW 5 9 11815 10746 7046 White 31
12 Noon Tue 68 73 NW 5 9 12630 12630 8930 White 35
1 PM Tue 71 76 NW 5 9 13236 13236 9536 White 38
2 PM Tue 73 78 NW 10 16 13639 13639 9939 White 40
3 PM Tue 74 78 NW 10 16 13639 13639 9939 White 40
4 PM Tue 74 77 NW 10 16 13438 13438 9738 White 39
5 PM Tue 73 75 NW 13 19 13035 13035 9335 White 37
6 PM Tue 71 72 NW 13 19 12428 12428 8728 White 34
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 13 19 11608 10173 6473 White 30
8 PM Tue 64 64 NNW 13 18 9799 8618 4918 Blue 26
9 PM Tue 61 61 NNW 13 18 8662 7819 4119 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 57 57 NNW 13 18 7586 6733 3033 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]