Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 32 32 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 46 N 2 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 49 N 2 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 NE 3 2686 3700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 51 52 NE 3 2889 3700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 51 51 NE 3 2686 3700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 48 48 N 3 2133 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 N 3 2019 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 N 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 W 1 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 1 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 W 1 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SW 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SW 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 SW 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 S 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 S 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 S 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 SW 1 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 SW 1 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 48 SW 1 2133 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 49 NE 2 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 50 NE 2 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 50 50 NE 2 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 49 49 E 3 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 E 3 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 46 E 2 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 E 2 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 51 E 2 2686 3700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 50 51 E 2 2686 3700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 50 50 E 2 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 48 48 E 2 2133 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 E 2 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 E 2 1981 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 45 SE 3 2019 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 50 SE 3 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 52 53 SE 3 3199 3700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 54 55 SE 3 3756 3700 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 55 55 SE 3 3756 3700 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 54 54 SE 3 3713 3700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 3 2889 3700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 3 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 W 3 2019 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 W 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 W 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 S 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SE 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 46 E 3 2057 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 E 3 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 E 3 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 50 50 E 3 2396 3700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 49 49 E 3 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 E 2 2095 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 E 2 2019 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 E 2 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 1981 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 47 SE 3 2095 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 52 SE 3 2889 3700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 53 54 SE 3 3713 3700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 54 54 SE 3 3713 3700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 53 53 SE 3 3199 3700 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 52 52 E 3 2889 3700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 49 49 E 3 2172 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 E 3 2019 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 E 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SE 3 1955 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]