Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 SSE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 55 SSE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 57 SSW 10 16 5427 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 10 16 6584 3700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 57 57 SSW 10 16 5427 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 SSW 9 13 4176 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 SSW 9 13 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 9 13 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 S 9 13 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 9 13 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 9 13 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SSE 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SSE 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 16 24 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 16 24 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 S 16 24 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 SW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 45 SW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 46 SW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 46 W 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 45 W 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 W 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 SW 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 SW 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 S 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 S 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 S 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 S 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 S 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 39 SSW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 40 40 SW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 40 SW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 SW 13 20 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 12 19 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 WSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 WSW 11 17 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 W 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 W 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 W 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 SW 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SW 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SW 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 SSE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 SSE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 SSE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 34 ESE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 35 ESE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 37 ESE 5 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 38 38 ENE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 E 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 E 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 SE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 6 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 6 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 6 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 9 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 9 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 9 10 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 SSE 9 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 9 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 38 SSE 9 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 39 S 9 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 39 39 S 9 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 S 9 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 S 8 12 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 S 8 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 S 8 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 S 8 11 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 S 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 S 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 SSE 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 42 E 5 8 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 43 N 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 43 43 N 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 43 43 N 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 NNE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 NNE 5 9 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 ESE 4 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 ESE 4 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 ESE 4 6 3228 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 ESE 4 5 3228 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]