Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 54 54 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 57 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 60 62 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 67 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 67 72 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 75 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 72 77 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 74 78 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 75 78 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 75 76 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 54 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 56 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 61 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 62 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 62 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 60 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 58 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 54 54 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 50 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 53 56 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 59 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 61 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 58 62 NNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 63 NNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 62 NNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 61 N 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 53 53 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 43 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 48 49 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 53 55 SE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 62 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 65 70 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 73 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 69 73 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 70 73 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 70 72 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 66 66 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 56 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 50 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 47 47 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 46 46 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 46 46 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 48 48 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 54 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 58 60 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 68 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 68 73 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 71 76 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 73 78 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 75 79 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 75 78 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 74 75 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 71 71 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 67 67 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 63 63 NNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 60 60 NNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 58 58 NNW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 57 58 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 61 63 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 66 69 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 70 75 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 79 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 76 81 N 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 82 N 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 78 81 N 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 77 78 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 74 74 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 71 71 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]