Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 S 1 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 S 1 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 48 48 S 1 2747 3700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 49 49 S 1 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 51 51 S 1 4391 3700 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 52 52 S 1 4856 3700 0 White 7
2 PM Sun 53 53 SE 1 5076 3972 272 White 8
3 PM Sun 54 54 SE 1 5291 4361 661 White 9
4 PM Sun 54 54 SE 1 5291 4361 661 White 9
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 1 5291 4361 661 White 9
6 PM Sun 50 50 NW 1 3997 3700 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 1 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 1 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 1 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 45 45 NW 1 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 E 0 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 E 0 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 E 0 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 SE 2 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SE 2 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 SE 2 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 1 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 SE 1 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 50 51 SE 1 4391 3700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 54 56 NE 1 5718 5285 1585 White 11
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NE 1 6358 6273 2573 White 14
1 PM Mon 60 63 NE 1 7200 7034 3334 White 18
2 PM Mon 63 65 NE 2 7622 7266 3566 White 20
3 PM Mon 65 67 NE 2 8040 7726 4026 White 22
4 PM Mon 65 66 NE 2 7831 7523 3823 White 21
5 PM Mon 64 64 NE 1 7411 7133 3433 White 19
6 PM Mon 61 61 NE 1 6781 6781 3081 White 16
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 1 5932 5464 1764 White 12
8 PM Mon 54 54 NE 1 5291 4361 661 White 9
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 1 4391 3700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 1 3997 3700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 49 49 SE 2 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SE 2 2747 3700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 45 45 SE 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 SE 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 2 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 SE 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 50 50 SE 2 3997 3700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 5505 4837 1137 White 10
11 AM Tue 60 61 N 3 6781 6781 3081 White 16
12 Noon Tue 63 65 N 3 7622 7266 3566 White 20
1 PM Tue 65 67 N 3 8040 7726 4026 White 22
2 PM Tue 66 68 N 3 8249 7907 4207 White 23
3 PM Tue 67 68 N 3 8249 7907 4207 White 23
4 PM Tue 67 67 N 3 8040 7726 4026 White 22
5 PM Tue 65 65 N 2 7622 7266 3566 White 20
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 2 6991 6935 3235 White 17
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 2 6145 5828 2128 White 13
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 5291 4361 661 White 9
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 2 4391 3700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 2 3997 3700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 2 2747 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NE 2 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 2 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 45 45 NE 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 NE 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 E 3 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 52 52 E 3 4856 3700 0 White 7
11 AM Wed 57 58 NE 5 6145 5828 2128 White 13
12 Noon Wed 60 62 NE 5 6991 6935 3235 White 17
1 PM Wed 62 64 NE 5 7411 7133 3433 White 19
2 PM Wed 64 66 NE 5 7831 7523 3823 White 21
3 PM Wed 65 66 NE 5 7831 7523 3823 White 21
4 PM Wed 66 67 NE 5 8040 7726 4026 White 22
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 7411 7133 3433 White 19
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 5 6781 6781 3081 White 16
7 PM Wed 56 56 N 5 5718 5285 1585 White 11
8 PM Wed 52 52 N 5 4856 3700 0 White 7
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 5 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 46 46 E 3 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 E 3 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 E 3 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 E 3 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 E 3 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 E 5 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 4856 3700 0 White 7
11 AM Thu 57 58 E 6 6145 5828 2128 White 13
12 Noon Thu 61 63 E 6 7200 7034 3334 White 18
1 PM Thu 64 66 E 6 7831 7523 3823 White 21
2 PM Thu 66 68 E 6 8249 7907 4207 White 23
3 PM Thu 68 69 E 6 8457 8304 4604 White 24
4 PM Thu 68 69 E 6 8457 8304 4604 White 24
5 PM Thu 66 66 E 2 7831 7523 3823 White 21
6 PM Thu 63 63 E 2 7200 7034 3334 White 18
7 PM Thu 58 58 E 2 6145 5828 2128 White 13
8 PM Thu 54 54 E 2 5291 4361 661 White 9
9 PM Thu 51 51 E 2 4391 3700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 49 49 E 2 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 48 48 SE 5 2747 3700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SE 5 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SE 5 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SE 3 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 SE 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SE 3 1302 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 55 56 SE 3 5718 5285 1585 White 11
11 AM Fri 60 62 W 0 6991 6935 3235 White 17
12 Noon Fri 64 67 W 0 8040 7726 4026 White 22
1 PM Fri 67 70 W 0 8665 8496 4796 White 25
2 PM Fri 68 71 W 0 8872 8689 4989 White 26
3 PM Fri 69 71 W 0 8872 8689 4989 White 26
4 PM Fri 68 69 W 0 8457 8304 4604 White 24
5 PM Fri 66 66 NW 3 7831 7523 3823 White 21
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 3 6991 6935 3235 White 17
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 3 5932 5464 1764 White 12
8 PM Fri 53 53 NW 3 5076 3972 272 White 8
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 3 3997 3700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 3 2929 3700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 2 2632 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 2 2525 3700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 2305 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 1885 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 2 1459 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 2 1459 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]