Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 WSW 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 S 1 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 73 73 SSE 1 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 72 SSE 1 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 SSE 1 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 SSE 1 2 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 SSE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 SE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 75 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 E 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 85 89 NNE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 90 96 N 3 5 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 93 100 NNW 3 5 12832 12150 9380 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 96 102 NW 3 5 12961 12444 9674 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 97 102 NW 3 5 12961 12444 9674 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 97 101 NW 4 6 12896 12199 9429 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 98 100 NW 4 6 12832 12150 9380 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 96 96 NW 5 9 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 93 93 NNW 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 90 90 NNW 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 87 87 N 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 85 85 N 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 83 83 ENE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 82 82 E 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 E 8 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 77 E 9 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 10 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 ESE 10 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 10 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 ESE 10 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 ESE 11 17 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 ESE 11 17 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 76 ESE 12 19 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 ESE 13 20 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 90 ESE 13 20 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 90 95 ESE 13 20 12067 4471 1701 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 93 99 ESE 12 19 12662 12101 9331 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 95 101 ESE 11 17 12896 12199 9429 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 97 102 ESE 9 13 12961 12444 9674 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 97 100 ESE 8 12 12832 12150 9380 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 97 99 ESE 6 10 12662 12101 9331 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 95 95 ESE 5 9 12067 4471 1701 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 92 92 ESE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 89 89 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 86 86 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 84 84 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 82 82 SE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 80 80 SE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 SE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 76 76 SE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 80 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 86 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 88 91 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 91 94 S 4 6 11907 2770 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 93 96 SW 4 6 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 94 96 WSW 5 9 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 95 97 SW 8 12 12165 11804 9034 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 95 96 S 9 13 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 93 93 S 10 16 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 90 90 S 8 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 87 87 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 85 85 S 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 SSE 2 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 81 81 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 80 80 ESE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 80 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 84 87 SSE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 87 91 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 90 95 S 4 6 12067 4471 1701 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 92 97 WSW 4 6 12165 11804 9034 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 94 99 W 4 6 12662 12101 9331 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 94 97 W 6 10 12165 11804 9034 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 94 95 SSW 8 12 12067 4471 1701 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 92 92 S 9 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 90 90 SSW 8 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 87 87 WSW 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 84 84 W 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 80 80 SSE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 79 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 ESE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 ESE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 ESE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 ESE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 75 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 84 88 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 88 93 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 91 97 S 3 5 12165 11804 9034 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 93 99 WSW 3 5 12662 12101 9331 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 95 100 W 4 6 12832 12150 9380 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 95 98 NW 5 9 12218 12052 9282 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 95 96 N 8 12 12116 9679 6909 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 93 93 NE 9 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 90 90 NNE 8 12 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 87 87 N 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 85 85 N 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 83 83 N 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 81 81 ENE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 80 80 E 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 ESE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 S 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 SSE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 SSE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 SSE 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 SE 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 88 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 89 94 SSW 4 6 11907 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 92 98 SW 4 6 12218 12052 9282 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 94 100 WSW 5 9 12832 12150 9380 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 96 101 WSW 5 9 12896 12199 9429 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 96 99 W 6 10 12662 12101 9331 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 96 98 W 6 10 12218 12052 9282 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 94 94 WNW 6 10 11907 2770 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 91 91 W 6 10 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 88 88 W 5 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 86 86 WSW 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 84 84 SW 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 81 81 S 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]