Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 SE 8 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 69 72 SE 6 3844 3351 581 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 74 78 SE 3 8048 4983 2213 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 79 84 S 2 9209 8785 6015 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 82 87 SE 1 10239 9180 6410 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 84 88 S 3 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 84 86 S 6 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 85 86 NW 7 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 84 84 NW 8 9209 8785 6015 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 83 83 NW 10 9077 8614 5844 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 79 79 NW 9 8420 5206 2436 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 75 75 NW 7 5002 3837 1067 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 72 72 W 5 3844 3351 581 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 3193 2789 19 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 65 65 S 6 2789 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 S 6 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 61 61 S 5 2626 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 60 60 S 5 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 S 6 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 68 71 S 5 3682 3189 419 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 74 78 SW 3 8048 4983 2213 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 78 83 S 5 9077 8614 5844 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 81 86 NW 6 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 83 87 NW 9 10239 9180 6410 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 84 86 NW 10 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 84 85 NW 12 9546 8917 6147 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 84 84 NW 13 9209 8785 6015 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 82 82 NW 13 8945 8348 5578 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 78 78 NW 10 8048 4983 2213 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 8 4654 3675 905 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 3682 3189 419 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 3193 2789 19 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 2789 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 S 5 2667 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 60 60 S 6 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 S 6 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 S 3 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 63 S 3 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 68 71 E 3 3682 3189 419 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 75 79 S 3 8420 5206 2436 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 80 85 E 3 9546 8917 6147 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 83 88 SE 3 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 85 89 SE 5 10654 9810 7040 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 86 88 SE 6 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 86 87 SE 6 10239 9180 6410 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 86 86 N 7 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 84 84 NW 7 9209 8785 6015 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 80 80 N 7 8649 6745 3975 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 77 77 N 7 7139 4611 1841 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 73 73 N 7 4028 3513 743 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 70 70 NE 6 3519 3026 256 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 67 67 NE 6 3030 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 E 6 2789 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 63 63 E 6 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 62 62 E 6 2667 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 60 60 SE 6 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 66 E 7 2866 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 7 4654 3675 905 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 78 82 E 7 8945 8348 5578 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 83 88 E 7 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 86 91 E 7 10946 10468 7698 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 88 92 NE 7 11092 10614 7844 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 89 91 NE 7 10946 10468 7698 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 90 91 N 6 10946 10468 7698 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 89 89 N 6 10654 9810 7040 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 87 87 NW 6 10239 9180 6410 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 83 83 N 6 9077 8614 5844 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 79 79 N 6 8420 5206 2436 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 76 76 N 6 5308 3998 1228 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 72 72 NE 6 3844 3351 581 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 69 69 NE 6 3356 2864 94 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 6 2866 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 64 64 E 6 2748 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 64 64 SE 6 2748 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 62 62 SE 6 2667 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 60 60 SE 6 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 S 3 3030 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 72 75 S 3 5002 3837 1067 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 78 82 SW 2 8945 8348 5578 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 83 88 SW 2 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 87 92 SW 3 11092 10614 7844 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 89 93 W 3 11238 10759 7989 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 90 92 W 5 11092 10614 7844 Blue 32
4 PM Wed 90 91 W 6 10946 10468 7698 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 90 90 NW 7 10800 10152 7382 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 88 88 NW 8 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 84 84 NW 8 9209 8785 6015 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 8649 6745 3975 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 8 5308 3998 1228 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 8 4028 3513 743 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 7 3519 3026 256 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 S 7 3030 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 65 65 S 7 2789 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 2748 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 62 62 SE 6 2667 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 2626 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 S 5 2866 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 72 75 SW 3 5002 3837 1067 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 78 82 SW 3 8945 8348 5578 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 82 87 SW 3 10239 9180 6410 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 85 90 SW 5 10800 10152 7382 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 87 91 W 5 10946 10468 7698 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 88 90 W 6 10800 10152 7382 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 89 90 W 7 10800 10152 7382 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 88 88 NW 8 10507 9464 6694 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 86 86 NW 9 9895 9049 6279 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 82 82 NW 9 8945 8348 5578 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 78 78 N 9 8048 4983 2213 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 74 74 N 9 4654 3675 905 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 71 71 N 9 3682 3189 419 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 67 67 NE 9 3030 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 E 9 2789 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 62 62 E 8 2667 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 2549 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 SE 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]