Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 81 81 SW 2 4 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 80 80 SSW 2 4 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 79 79 SSW 2 4 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 78 78 S 2 4 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 77 77 S 3 5 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 S 4 6 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 SSE 5 8 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 SSE 5 7 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 SSE 4 7 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 80 SSE 4 7 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 83 SW 3 5 3200 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 85 86 WNW 2 4 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 88 90 N 1 2 7281 4842 2072 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 89 91 NNW 3 4 7985 5660 2890 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 90 91 NNW 5 6 7985 5660 2890 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 92 93 NW 7 9 9613 7180 4410 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 91 91 NNW 6 7 7985 5660 2890 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 90 90 NNW 4 6 7281 4842 2072 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 88 88 NNW 3 4 5734 3446 676 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 86 86 NW 4 5 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 4 6 3200 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 5 6 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 5 6 3200 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 4 6 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 88 88 WSW 4 5 5734 3446 676 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 86 86 W 4 6 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 84 84 WNW 5 6 3329 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 82 82 NW 5 7 2777 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 81 81 SW 4 5 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 81 81 SE 2 4 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 80 80 NE 1 2 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 81 81 ENE 2 2 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 83 ESE 2 3 3200 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 86 SSE 3 3 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 86 90 S 2 3 7281 4842 2072 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 88 94 SSW 2 3 10211 7875 5105 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 91 98 SW 2 2 11901 10525 7755 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 93 100 WSW 4 5 12632 11137 8367 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 95 102 W 7 8 13289 12037 9267 White 19
3 PM Thu 97 103 WNW 9 10 13495 12489 9719 White 20
4 PM Thu 96 100 WNW 11 13 12632 11137 8367 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 95 97 WNW 13 15 11460 10091 7321 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 93 93 WNW 15 18 9613 7180 4410 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 93 93 WNW 14 17 9613 7180 4410 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 93 93 WNW 13 17 9613 7180 4410 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 93 93 WNW 12 17 9613 7180 4410 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 91 91 WNW 11 15 7985 5660 2890 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 89 89 WNW 9 13 6533 4105 1335 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 WNW 8 11 4888 3327 557 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 87 87 WNW 6 8 4888 3327 557 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 87 87 W 4 6 4888 3327 557 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 86 86 W 2 3 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 86 86 W 2 3 4137 3194 424 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 85 85 WNW 2 3 3449 2777 7 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 84 84 WNW 2 3 3329 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 86 87 WNW 2 3 4888 3327 557 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 87 89 WNW 2 3 6533 4105 1335 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 88 92 WNW 2 2 8655 6445 3675 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 91 97 WNW 2 3 11460 10091 7321 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 93 101 NW 3 3 13084 11851 9081 White 18
12 Noon Fri 96 105 NW 3 4 13904 13365 10595 White 22
1 PM Fri 97 106 NW 4 5 14106 13644 10874 White 23
2 PM Fri 98 106 NW 6 6 14106 13644 10874 White 23
3 PM Fri 99 105 NW 7 8 13904 13365 10595 White 22
4 PM Fri 97 101 NW 8 10 13084 11851 9081 White 18
5 PM Fri 94 96 NW 10 12 10912 9382 6612 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 92 92 NW 12 14 8655 6445 3675 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 88 88 NW 11 14 5734 3446 676 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 84 84 WNW 11 15 3329 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 81 81 WNW 10 15 2520 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 84 84 WNW 10 16 3329 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 86 86 WNW 11 17 4137 3194 424 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]