Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 3 5 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 2 3 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SSW 1 2 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 S 1 2 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 2 3 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 E 3 5 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 ENE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 ENE 5 9 12194 12000 5800 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 83 87 NE 6 10 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 85 91 NNE 8 12 14618 13446 7246 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 87 94 NE 8 12 15323 14545 8345 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 88 94 NE 6 10 15323 14545 8345 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 88 93 ENE 5 9 15089 14269 8069 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 88 92 NE 5 9 14854 13861 7661 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 86 88 NE 6 10 13559 12861 6661 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 85 85 NNE 6 10 12878 12183 5983 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 77 77 NE 5 9 5765 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 NE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 NE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 E 8 12 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 ESE 10 16 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 ESE 11 17 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 ESE 11 17 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 ESE 11 17 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 ESE 11 17 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 12 19 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 12 19 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 13 20 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 14 23 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 ESE 14 23 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 ESE 14 23 12144 11650 5450 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 82 85 ESE 16 24 12878 12183 5983 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 84 89 E 14 23 13979 12928 6728 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 86 91 E 13 20 14618 13446 7246 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 87 91 E 12 19 14618 13446 7246 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 87 90 E 11 17 14380 13023 6823 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 87 89 E 11 17 13979 12928 6728 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 86 87 E 10 16 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 85 85 E 10 16 12878 12183 5983 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 77 77 ESE 10 16 5765 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 ESE 10 16 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 ESE 9 13 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 ESE 8 12 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 SE 8 12 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 SE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 SE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 SE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 79 SE 4 6 12043 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 80 82 SE 3 5 12194 12000 5800 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 82 85 SE 2 3 12878 12183 5983 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 84 87 SSE 3 5 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 85 88 S 3 5 13559 12861 6661 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 85 87 SSW 4 6 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 85 86 SSW 5 9 12944 12250 6050 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 6 10 12811 12133 5933 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 83 83 SSW 6 10 12414 12082 5882 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 76 76 SSW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 SSW 3 5 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 SSW 3 5 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 S 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 S 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 S 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 SSE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SSE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SSE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SSE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SSE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 SSE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 77 S 4 6 5765 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 82 WSW 3 5 12194 12000 5800 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 81 86 W 2 3 12944 12250 6050 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 83 88 W 3 5 13559 12861 6661 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 83 88 WNW 5 9 13559 12861 6661 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 83 87 WNW 6 10 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 84 86 WNW 8 12 12944 12250 6050 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 82 83 W 8 12 12414 12082 5882 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 81 81 WSW 8 12 12144 11650 5450 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 8 12 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 S 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 ESE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 ESE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 ESE 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 ESE 4 6 12093 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 80 84 ESE 4 6 12811 12133 5933 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 82 87 E 4 6 13132 12795 6595 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 84 90 ENE 5 9 14380 13023 6823 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 85 90 N 5 9 14380 13023 6823 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 85 89 NW 6 10 13979 12928 6728 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 86 89 NNW 8 12 13979 12928 6728 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 84 85 N 9 13 12878 12183 5983 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 83 83 N 9 13 12414 12082 5882 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 76 76 NW 8 12 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 S 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 SSE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 SSW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 S 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 S 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 S 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SSE 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 SE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 ESE 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 SE 4 6 12144 11650 5450 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 82 86 S 4 6 12944 12250 6050 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 84 89 S 4 6 13979 12928 6728 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 86 92 SSW 4 6 14854 13861 7661 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 87 92 WSW 6 10 14854 13861 7661 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 86 90 W 8 12 14380 13023 6823 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 87 90 W 9 13 14380 13023 6823 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 85 86 WNW 9 13 12944 12250 6050 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 84 84 WNW 9 13 12811 12133 5933 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 77 77 W 8 12 5765 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 6 10 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 9 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 4 6 5007 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]