Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 S 5 9 5135 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 S 6 10 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 S 6 10 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 S 6 10 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 S 5 9 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 S 5 8 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SSW 4 6 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 4 6 6023 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 83 W 4 6 11138 9933 3733 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 84 86 W 5 8 12570 11078 4878 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 86 89 W 6 11 13709 12460 6260 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 88 90 W 9 13 13910 12922 6722 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 89 91 W 10 16 14609 13373 7173 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 89 91 W 11 17 14609 13373 7173 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 90 92 W 11 18 15502 13654 7454 White 13
3 PM Wed 90 91 W 12 18 14609 13373 7173 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 89 90 W 11 18 13910 12922 6722 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 89 90 W 11 17 13910 12922 6722 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 10 16 13036 11827 5627 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 9 14 11138 9933 3733 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 13 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 12 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 9 12 5135 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 9 12 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WSW 8 12 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 8 12 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 SW 8 11 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SW 6 10 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 5 9 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SW 5 8 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 5 8 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 76 W 5 8 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 84 W 5 9 11864 10443 4243 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 85 89 W 6 10 13709 12460 6260 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 87 92 W 8 11 15502 13654 7454 White 13
11 AM Thu 90 97 W 9 13 16523 16523 10323 White 18
12 Noon Thu 91 98 W 10 14 16726 16726 10526 White 18
1 PM Thu 91 98 W 11 17 16726 16726 10526 White 18
2 PM Thu 92 98 W 12 18 16726 16726 10526 White 18
3 PM Thu 92 97 W 12 19 16523 16523 10323 White 18
4 PM Thu 92 96 W 13 19 16320 16320 10120 White 17
5 PM Thu 91 93 WNW 13 19 15707 13854 7654 White 14
6 PM Thu 89 89 WNW 12 19 13709 12460 6260 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 85 85 WNW 11 18 12092 10762 4562 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 80 80 WNW 11 16 10014 7554 1354 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 10 14 7608 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 12 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 6 11 6023 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 5 9 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 W 5 8 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 W 4 6 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 W 3 5 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 W 3 4 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 2 4 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 3 5 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 78 NW 4 8 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 85 87 NNW 6 9 13036 11827 5627 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 88 92 NW 6 10 15502 13654 7454 White 13
10 AM Fri 90 96 WNW 8 11 16320 16320 10120 White 17
11 AM Fri 93 101 W 8 12 17334 17334 11134 White 21
12 Noon Fri 94 103 W 9 13 17738 17738 11538 White 23
1 PM Fri 95 104 WNW 10 14 17936 17936 11736 White 24
2 PM Fri 96 104 WNW 10 16 17936 17936 11736 White 24
3 PM Fri 95 101 WNW 11 18 17334 17334 11134 White 21
4 PM Fri 95 99 WNW 12 19 16929 16929 10729 White 19
5 PM Fri 94 96 WNW 13 20 16320 16320 10120 White 17
6 PM Fri 92 92 WNW 13 20 15502 13654 7454 White 13
7 PM Fri 88 88 WNW 12 19 13492 12002 5802 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 82 82 WNW 11 18 10818 8975 2775 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 10 16 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 13 7608 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 76 76 W 8 12 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 6 10 5135 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 W 5 8 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 W 4 5 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 WSW 3 4 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 2 3 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 WSW 2 3 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 WSW 2 3 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 78 W 3 4 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 86 88 W 4 6 13492 12002 5802 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 89 93 W 5 8 15707 13854 7654 White 14
10 AM Sat 91 97 WNW 6 10 16523 16523 10323 White 18
11 AM Sat 94 102 NW 8 12 17536 17536 11336 White 22
12 Noon Sat 95 104 NW 9 13 17936 17936 11736 White 24
1 PM Sat 96 104 NW 10 14 17936 17936 11736 White 24
2 PM Sat 97 104 NW 10 16 17936 17936 11736 White 24
3 PM Sat 97 103 NW 11 17 17738 17738 11538 White 23
4 PM Sat 96 100 NW 11 17 17132 17132 10932 White 20
5 PM Sat 96 98 NW 11 17 16726 16726 10526 White 18
6 PM Sat 94 94 NW 11 17 15912 14299 8099 White 15
7 PM Sat 89 89 NW 10 16 13709 12460 6260 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 84 84 NW 10 14 11864 10443 4243 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 80 80 NW 9 13 10014 7554 1354 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 78 78 NW 8 12 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 78 78 NW 6 10 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 NW 5 9 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 N 4 6 5135 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 NNE 3 4 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 NE 2 3 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 1 2 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 E 1 2 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 E 2 3 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 79 80 E 3 5 10014 7554 1354 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 88 90 E 5 8 13910 12922 6722 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 90 94 ENE 6 11 15912 14299 8099 White 15
10 AM Sun 93 99 ENE 9 13 16929 16929 10729 White 19
11 AM Sun 96 101 ENE 10 14 17334 17334 11134 White 21
12 Noon Sun 97 103 ENE 10 16 17738 17738 11538 White 23
1 PM Sun 98 103 ENE 10 16 17738 17738 11538 White 23
2 PM Sun 99 104 ENE 10 14 17936 17936 11736 White 24
3 PM Sun 99 103 ENE 9 13 17738 17738 11538 White 23
4 PM Sun 98 100 ENE 9 13 17132 17132 10932 White 20
5 PM Sun 97 98 ENE 8 12 16726 16726 10526 White 18
6 PM Sun 95 95 ENE 8 12 16116 15269 9069 White 16
7 PM Sun 90 90 E 8 12 13910 12922 6722 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 85 85 E 8 12 12092 10762 4562 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 81 81 E 9 13 10496 8263 2063 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 79 79 ESE 9 13 9122 6803 603 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 78 78 ESE 9 14 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 ESE 10 16 6843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 74 ESE 11 17 5135 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 ESE 12 18 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 ESE 13 19 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 ESE 13 21 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 ESE 14 21 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 ESE 14 23 4967 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 78 78 ESE 16 24 8330 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 85 86 ESE 16 24 12570 11078 4878 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 88 91 ESE 16 24 14609 13373 7173 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 90 94 E 16 24 15912 14299 8099 White 15
11 AM Mon 93 96 E 16 24 16320 16320 10120 White 17
12 Noon Mon 94 97 E 16 23 16523 16523 10323 White 18
1 PM Mon 94 97 E 14 23 16523 16523 10323 White 18
2 PM Mon 95 98 E 14 23 16726 16726 10526 White 18
3 PM Mon 95 97 ESE 14 21 16523 16523 10323 White 18
4 PM Mon 95 96 ESE 14 21 16320 16320 10120 White 17
5 PM Mon 94 94 ESE 13 20 15912 14299 8099 White 15
6 PM Mon 92 92 ESE 13 20 15502 13654 7454 White 13
7 PM Mon 88 88 ESE 12 19 13492 12002 5802 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 82 82 ESE 12 19 10818 8975 2775 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 79 79 ESE 12 18 9122 6803 603 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 78 78 ESE 11 18 8330 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]