Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 S 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 S 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 S 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 S 2 9539 8911 2711 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 70 74 W 5 10827 10206 4006 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 72 77 W 6 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 74 79 W 7 12278 11101 4901 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 76 80 W 8 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 76 78 W 9 11851 10951 4751 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 76 77 W 10 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 75 75 W 9 10979 10498 4298 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 69 69 NW 9 9539 8911 2711 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 7936 6200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 57 57 NW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 S 3 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 W 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 60 W 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 W 9 9539 8911 2711 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 69 73 W 9 10675 9849 3649 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 71 76 W 10 11130 10649 4449 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 74 79 W 13 12278 11101 4901 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 75 79 NW 14 12278 11101 4901 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 75 77 NW 15 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 76 77 NW 15 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 75 75 NW 14 10979 10498 4298 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 68 68 NW 14 9201 8773 2573 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 12 6201 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NW 9 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 NW 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SE 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 60 E 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 E 8 9903 9047 2847 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 71 75 E 8 10979 10498 4298 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 73 78 E 9 11851 10951 4751 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 76 81 E 9 12657 11759 5559 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 77 81 NE 9 12657 11759 5559 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 78 80 NE 8 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 78 79 NE 9 12278 11101 4901 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 71 71 N 9 10263 9183 2983 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 64 64 N 9 8613 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 9 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 NW 9 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 63 SE 8 8327 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 70 73 SE 8 10675 9849 3649 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 74 78 E 9 11851 10951 4751 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 76 81 E 9 12657 11759 5559 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 79 84 E 9 14906 12615 6415 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 80 84 NE 9 14906 12615 6415 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 80 82 NE 9 13515 12181 5981 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 81 82 N 8 13515 12181 5981 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 80 80 N 8 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 73 73 N 7 10675 9849 3649 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 66 66 N 7 8927 8288 2088 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 6201 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 NW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SW 5 8613 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 71 74 SW 5 10827 10206 4006 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 75 79 SW 5 12278 11101 4901 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 77 82 W 5 13515 12181 5981 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 80 85 W 6 15274 13252 7052 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 81 85 W 6 15274 13252 7052 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 81 83 W 7 14311 12441 6241 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 82 83 W 8 14311 12441 6241 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 81 81 W 9 12657 11759 5559 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 10827 10206 4006 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 9064 8593 2393 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 7936 6200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 SW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SW 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SW 5 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 5 8327 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 69 72 SW 5 10524 9488 3288 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 73 77 SW 6 11298 10800 4600 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 75 80 W 6 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 77 82 W 7 13515 12181 5981 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 78 82 W 8 13515 12181 5981 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 78 80 W 9 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 79 80 W 10 12483 11252 5052 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 78 78 W 12 11851 10951 4751 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 10263 9183 2983 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 12 8613 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 12 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 S 8 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 5213 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]