Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 SW 6 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 S 6 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 S 6 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 S 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 S 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 64 S 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 73 S 6 10 3071 2614 514 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 78 82 SSW 8 11 9946 5688 3588 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 82 88 W 8 12 14964 12782 10682 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 85 93 WNW 9 14 16322 15890 13790 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 87 95 WNW 10 16 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 89 95 WNW 12 18 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 91 96 WNW 13 19 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 92 96 WNW 14 21 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 92 94 WNW 14 23 16481 15999 13899 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 91 92 WNW 14 23 16161 15364 13264 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 13 20 15620 13641 11541 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 85 85 WNW 10 16 13117 9777 7677 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 9 13 9946 5688 3588 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 80 80 W 9 12 8032 4720 2620 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 9 13 4754 3483 1383 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 13 3926 2831 731 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SSW 9 13 3071 2614 514 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 69 69 S 8 12 2506 2470 370 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 6 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 68 SSE 6 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 77 SSE 8 11 4754 3483 1383 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 82 86 S 8 11 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 86 92 SW 8 12 16161 15364 13264 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 90 98 W 9 13 19842 16893 14793 White 29
12 Noon Wed 92 101 W 10 16 20398 18823 16723 White 32
1 PM Wed 94 102 W 11 17 20582 20123 18023 White 33
2 PM Wed 96 103 W 13 19 20765 20765 18665 White 34
3 PM Wed 97 102 WSW 14 21 20582 20123 18023 White 33
4 PM Wed 97 100 WSW 16 24 20214 18536 16436 White 31
5 PM Wed 96 97 WSW 17 25 18709 16402 14302 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 94 94 WSW 17 25 16481 15999 13899 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 90 90 WSW 16 24 15942 13989 11889 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 14 21 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 12 19 12153 9102 7002 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 81 81 SW 11 16 9265 5066 2966 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 78 78 SSW 9 14 5096 3902 1802 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 S 9 13 4343 3057 957 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 72 72 S 9 13 2834 2505 405 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 69 69 SSE 9 14 2506 2470 370 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 10 14 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 SSE 10 14 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 10 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 11 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SSE 11 17 2506 2470 370 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 79 S 11 17 6023 4314 2214 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 83 86 S 12 18 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 87 91 SSW 12 19 16052 14556 12456 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 90 95 SSW 13 20 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 92 97 SSW 14 21 18709 16402 14302 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 94 99 SW 16 24 20028 18029 15929 White 30
2 PM Thu 96 100 SW 17 25 20214 18536 16436 White 31
3 PM Thu 97 100 SW 18 26 20214 18536 16436 White 31
4 PM Thu 97 98 SW 18 27 19842 16893 14793 White 29
5 PM Thu 96 96 SW 18 27 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 18 26 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 90 90 SW 17 25 15942 13989 11889 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 87 87 SW 14 23 14130 11809 9709 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 84 84 SW 13 20 12153 9102 7002 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 82 82 SW 12 18 9946 5688 3588 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 79 79 SW 10 16 6023 4314 2214 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 SSW 10 14 4754 3483 1383 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 73 73 SSW 9 12 3071 2614 514 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 70 70 SSW 8 11 2615 2470 370 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 68 68 SSW 6 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 SSW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 SSW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 SSW 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 SSW 9 13 2506 2470 370 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 76 SSW 10 14 4343 3057 957 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 80 83 SSW 11 17 11036 7729 5629 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 82 86 SW 13 19 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 85 91 SW 14 21 16052 14556 12456 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 86 93 SW 16 24 16322 15890 13790 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 88 95 SW 17 26 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 89 95 SW 18 27 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 90 95 SW 19 28 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 90 93 SW 19 28 16322 15890 13790 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 89 90 SW 19 28 15942 13989 11889 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 87 87 SW 17 26 14130 11809 9709 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 82 82 SW 14 23 9946 5688 3588 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 19 5096 3902 1802 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 10 16 4343 3057 957 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 8 11 3071 2614 514 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 9 2615 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SW 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 61 SSW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 70 SSW 8 11 2615 2470 370 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 76 80 SW 8 12 8032 4720 2620 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 80 86 SW 9 13 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 83 91 SW 10 16 16052 14556 12456 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 86 95 SW 12 18 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 88 96 SW 13 20 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 90 97 SW 16 24 18709 16402 14302 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 90 95 WSW 17 26 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 90 93 WSW 18 27 16322 15890 13790 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 90 91 WSW 19 28 16052 14556 12456 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 88 88 WSW 18 26 14964 12782 10682 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 16 24 11036 7729 5629 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 13 20 6023 4314 2214 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 11 16 4343 3057 957 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 9 12 3071 2614 514 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 6 10 2615 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 SW 6 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SSW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 6 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SSE 8 11 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 61 S 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 70 SSW 5 9 2615 2470 370 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 80 SW 5 8 8032 4720 2620 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 80 86 WSW 4 8 13780 10676 8576 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 84 92 WSW 5 8 16161 15364 13264 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 86 95 WSW 5 9 17541 16108 14008 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 88 96 W 6 11 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 90 97 W 9 12 18709 16402 14302 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 91 96 W 10 14 18376 16242 14142 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 91 94 W 11 17 16481 15999 13899 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 90 91 W 11 17 16052 14556 12456 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 88 88 WNW 11 17 14964 12782 10682 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 84 84 WNW 10 14 12153 9102 7002 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 80 80 NW 9 13 8032 4720 2620 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 77 77 NNW 8 11 4754 3483 1383 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 74 74 NNW 6 9 3502 2722 622 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]