Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 37 37 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 E 2 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 52 53 NE 2 3024 2816 716 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 57 59 NE 5 3314 3170 1070 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 61 64 N 6 4235 3485 1385 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 64 67 N 7 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 65 67 N 8 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 66 67 N 9 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 65 65 N 10 4703 3642 1542 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 61 61 N 9 3493 3265 1165 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 55 55 N 9 3125 2953 853 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 52 52 N 10 2955 2748 648 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 50 50 N 9 2818 2660 560 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 2661 2567 467 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 2596 2509 409 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 43 43 NE 7 2538 2470 370 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 E 7 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 50 51 E 10 2887 2699 599 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 54 56 E 14 3172 3021 921 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 57 60 E 15 3361 3217 1117 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 59 62 E 15 3650 3312 1212 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 60 62 E 14 3650 3312 1212 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 60 61 E 13 3493 3265 1165 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 59 59 E 12 3314 3170 1070 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 57 57 E 9 3219 3076 976 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 51 51 E 7 2887 2699 599 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 2699 2596 496 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 45 45 E 3 2596 2509 409 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 42 42 SE 3 2509 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 40 40 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 E 5 2887 2699 599 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 55 57 E 5 3219 3076 976 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 59 62 E 5 3650 3312 1212 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 63 66 NE 6 4970 3798 1698 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 64 66 NE 6 4970 3798 1698 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 64 65 NE 6 4703 3642 1542 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 64 64 N 6 4235 3485 1385 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 3314 3170 1070 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 6 3172 3021 921 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 52 52 NE 6 2955 2748 648 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 2699 2596 496 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 46 46 E 5 2625 2538 438 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 43 43 E 5 2538 2470 370 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 42 42 E 3 2509 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 51 52 E 6 2955 2748 648 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 6 3361 3217 1117 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 63 66 E 6 4970 3798 1698 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 6 5132 4662 2562 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 67 69 NE 6 5582 4962 2862 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 68 69 NE 6 5582 4962 2862 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 67 67 NE 7 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 64 64 NE 7 4235 3485 1385 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 60 60 NE 6 3361 3217 1117 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 56 56 E 6 3172 3021 921 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 51 51 E 5 2887 2699 599 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 2750 2625 525 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 47 47 E 5 2661 2567 467 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 46 46 SE 5 2625 2538 438 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SE 5 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 2538 2470 370 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 6 2480 2470 370 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SE 6 2625 2538 438 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 6 3125 2953 853 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 61 63 E 6 3808 3359 1259 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 65 67 E 6 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 68 70 E 6 6134 5043 2943 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 69 71 NE 6 6403 5124 3024 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 69 70 NE 6 6134 5043 2943 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 67 67 NE 6 5051 4201 2101 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 64 64 NE 6 4235 3485 1385 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 60 60 NE 6 3361 3217 1117 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 3172 3021 921 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 5 2955 2748 648 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 2818 2660 560 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 48 48 E 5 2699 2596 496 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 5 2625 2538 438 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 E 5 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 43 43 SE 5 2538 2470 370 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 41 41 SE 5 2480 2470 370 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 2480 2470 370 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 SE 6 2661 2567 467 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 55 56 SE 7 3172 3021 921 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 62 64 SE 7 4235 3485 1385 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 67 69 E 7 5582 4962 2862 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 69 71 E 7 6403 5124 3024 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 71 73 E 7 7005 6098 3998 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 71 72 E 7 6670 5507 3407 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 69 69 NE 6 5582 4962 2862 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 6 4970 3798 1698 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 63 63 NE 6 3808 3359 1259 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 59 59 E 6 3314 3170 1070 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 55 55 E 6 3125 2953 853 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 52 52 SE 6 2955 2748 648 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 50 50 SE 6 2818 2660 560 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 48 48 SE 6 2699 2596 496 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SE 6 2625 2538 438 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 44 44 SE 6 2567 2480 380 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 43 43 SE 6 2538 2470 370 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 42 42 SE 6 2509 2470 370 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 2480 2470 370 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]