Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 W 2 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 WSW 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 SW 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 S 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 S 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 ESE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 85 89 NE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 89 95 N 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 92 99 N 5 9 9180 9180 7080 White 5
1 PM Tue 95 101 N 6 10 9607 9607 7507 White 7
2 PM Tue 96 101 NNW 6 10 9607 9607 7507 White 7
3 PM Tue 96 100 NNW 6 10 9394 9394 7294 White 6
4 PM Tue 96 98 NNW 6 10 8966 2470 370 White 4
5 PM Tue 93 93 NNW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 91 91 NNW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 86 86 NNW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 82 82 NNW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 81 81 N 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 79 79 ENE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 E 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 E 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 ESE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 ESE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 SE 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SE 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 ESE 10 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 82 ESE 11 17 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 90 ESE 11 17 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 90 95 ESE 11 17 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 93 99 ESE 10 16 9180 9180 7080 White 5
1 PM Wed 96 102 ESE 9 13 9820 9820 7720 White 8
2 PM Wed 97 102 ESE 6 10 9820 9820 7720 White 8
3 PM Wed 97 100 ESE 5 9 9394 9394 7294 White 6
4 PM Wed 97 99 E 4 6 9180 9180 7080 White 5
5 PM Wed 94 94 E 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 92 92 E 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 86 86 E 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 83 83 E 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 82 82 E 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 79 79 ESE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 80 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 87 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 88 92 SSW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 90 94 SSW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 93 97 SW 5 9 8752 2470 370 White 3
2 PM Thu 94 97 WSW 6 10 8752 2470 370 White 3
3 PM Thu 94 96 WSW 6 10 8538 2470 370 White 2
4 PM Thu 94 95 WSW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 91 91 W 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 89 89 SW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 84 84 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 81 81 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 80 80 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 78 78 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 77 77 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 73 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 73 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 79 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 83 86 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 87 91 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 89 94 SSW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 92 97 W 4 6 8752 2470 370 White 3
2 PM Fri 92 96 WNW 4 6 8538 2470 370 White 2
3 PM Fri 93 96 W 5 9 8538 2470 370 White 2
4 PM Fri 93 95 SSW 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 90 90 S 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 88 88 SW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 83 83 WNW 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 80 80 NNW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 79 79 N 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 E 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 76 76 SE 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 SE 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 84 88 ESE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 88 93 ESE 2 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 90 96 ENE 2 3 8538 2470 370 White 2
1 PM Sat 93 99 NNW 3 5 9180 9180 7080 White 5
2 PM Sat 94 99 WNW 4 6 9180 9180 7080 White 5
3 PM Sat 94 97 NW 5 9 8752 2470 370 White 3
4 PM Sat 94 95 N 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 91 91 NNE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 89 89 N 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 84 84 N 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 81 81 NNW 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 80 80 N 2 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 78 E 2 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 77 77 ESE 2 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 SE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 S 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 SE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 SE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 SSE 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 87 SSW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 88 93 SW 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 91 96 WSW 4 6 8538 2470 370 White 2
1 PM Sun 94 99 W 4 6 9180 9180 7080 White 5
2 PM Sun 95 100 W 5 9 9394 9394 7294 White 6
3 PM Sun 95 98 W 6 10 8966 2470 370 White 4
4 PM Sun 95 97 WNW 8 12 8752 2470 370 White 3
5 PM Sun 92 92 WNW 8 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 90 90 WNW 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 80 80 W 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 78 SW 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]