Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 54 54 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 70 S 5 3095 2764 664 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 72 76 S 3 4260 3573 1473 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 77 82 S 2 8528 5656 3556 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 80 85 S 2 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 82 86 S 3 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 83 85 NW 6 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 84 85 NW 7 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 83 83 NW 8 8701 7490 5390 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 81 81 NW 8 8165 5058 2958 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 76 76 NW 6 4260 3573 1473 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 71 71 NW 6 3258 2805 705 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 69 69 E 5 2933 2724 624 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 66 66 SE 5 2725 2592 492 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 63 63 SE 3 2595 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 S 3 2933 2724 624 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 71 75 SW 2 3905 3412 1312 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 76 81 S 2 8165 5058 2958 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 79 84 NW 6 8852 8090 5990 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 82 86 NW 7 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 82 84 NW 8 8852 8090 5990 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 84 85 NW 9 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 83 83 NW 8 8701 7490 5390 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 81 81 NW 8 8165 5058 2958 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 76 76 NW 7 4260 3573 1473 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 3258 2805 705 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 69 69 NW 5 2933 2724 624 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 2684 2470 370 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 63 63 SW 5 2595 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SE 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 SE 5 2933 2724 624 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 71 75 SE 3 3905 3412 1312 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 77 82 SE 3 8528 5656 3556 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 80 85 NE 6 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 83 87 N 6 9290 8822 6722 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 84 86 N 7 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 85 86 SE 8 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 84 84 N 9 8852 8090 5990 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 82 82 NW 9 8528 5656 3556 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 77 77 N 9 4852 3734 1634 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 3420 2928 828 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 70 70 NE 8 3095 2764 664 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 67 67 NE 7 2766 2643 543 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 65 65 E 7 2684 2470 370 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 72 E 5 3420 2928 828 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 74 78 E 5 5080 3895 1795 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 80 85 E 5 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 84 89 NE 5 9984 9083 6983 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 86 90 NE 5 10324 9214 7114 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 87 89 N 5 9984 9083 6983 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 88 89 N 6 9984 9083 6983 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 87 87 N 6 9290 8822 6722 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 85 85 NW 6 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 6 7792 4815 2715 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 75 75 NW 6 3905 3412 1312 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 3582 3089 989 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 70 70 W 5 3095 2764 664 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 67 67 SW 5 2766 2643 543 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 5 2644 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 62 62 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 73 S 2 3582 3089 989 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 75 79 S 1 5832 4214 2114 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 81 86 S 1 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 85 90 S 1 10324 9214 7114 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 87 91 SW 2 10543 9552 7452 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 88 90 SW 3 10324 9214 7114 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 89 90 W 5 10324 9214 7114 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 88 88 NW 6 9639 8953 6853 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 86 86 NW 7 9114 8663 6563 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 81 81 NW 7 8165 5058 2958 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 4260 3573 1473 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 7 3743 3251 1151 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 3095 2764 664 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 6 2806 2683 583 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 6 2644 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 63 63 S 5 2595 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 S 3 2595 2470 370 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 70 73 SW 3 3582 3089 989 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 75 79 SW 3 5832 4214 2114 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 80 85 SW 3 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 83 88 SW 3 9639 8953 6853 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 86 90 W 5 10324 9214 7114 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 87 89 W 6 9984 9083 6983 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 88 89 W 6 9984 9083 6983 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 87 87 NW 7 9290 8822 6722 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 85 85 NW 8 8983 8454 6354 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 79 79 NW 8 5832 4214 2114 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 74 74 N 9 3743 3251 1151 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 72 72 N 9 3420 2928 828 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 68 68 NE 9 2806 2683 583 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 65 65 NE 9 2684 2470 370 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soari[email protected]