Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 WSW 5 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 79 79 W 5 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 W 6 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 N 6 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 N 5 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 77 77 NNE 5 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 77 77 NNE 4 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 79 NNE 3 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 82 83 N 3 6 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 83 86 N 3 5 11026 7448 1768 White 5
10 AM Mon 85 90 N 4 6 11879 11091 5411 White 9
11 AM Mon 87 94 N 6 8 12724 12724 7044 White 13
12 Noon Mon 89 97 N 6 8 13348 13348 7668 White 15
1 PM Mon 90 97 NW 6 9 13348 13348 7668 White 15
2 PM Mon 90 96 NW 5 8 13141 13141 7461 White 14
3 PM Mon 91 96 WNW 8 9 13141 13141 7461 White 14
4 PM Mon 90 93 WNW 5 11 12514 12514 6834 White 12
5 PM Mon 90 92 WNW 8 10 12303 12176 6496 White 11
6 PM Mon 89 89 WNW 8 10 11666 10485 4805 White 8
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 8 11 11238 8584 2904 White 6
8 PM Mon 86 86 WNW 8 11 11026 7448 1768 White 5
9 PM Mon 85 85 W 8 11 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 83 83 W 9 11 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 82 82 WNW 8 10 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 WNW 8 10 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 82 82 WNW 8 10 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 80 80 NW 9 11 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 80 80 NW 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 79 79 NNW 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 79 79 N 8 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 79 79 NNE 6 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 82 82 NE 5 9 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 84 85 NNE 5 9 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 86 89 NNE 4 8 11666 10485 4805 White 8
10 AM Tue 88 93 N 4 8 12514 12514 6834 White 12
11 AM Tue 89 95 NNW 5 9 12933 12933 7253 White 14
12 Noon Tue 91 99 NW 6 10 13762 13762 8082 White 17
1 PM Tue 92 100 WNW 6 11 13968 13968 8288 White 18
2 PM Tue 93 100 WNW 8 12 13968 13968 8288 White 18
3 PM Tue 93 99 WNW 9 12 13762 13762 8082 White 17
4 PM Tue 93 97 WNW 9 13 13348 13348 7668 White 15
5 PM Tue 92 94 WNW 10 13 12724 12724 7044 White 13
6 PM Tue 91 91 WNW 10 13 12091 11643 5963 White 10
7 PM Tue 89 89 W 10 14 11666 10485 4805 White 8
8 PM Tue 87 87 W 10 14 11238 8584 2904 White 6
9 PM Tue 86 86 W 10 14 11026 7448 1768 White 5
10 PM Tue 85 85 W 10 14 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 84 84 W 10 14 8725 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 W 10 14 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 82 82 WNW 10 14 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 81 81 WNW 10 14 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 NW 9 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 N 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 79 79 NNE 8 11 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 79 79 NE 6 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 80 80 E 6 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 83 E 5 9 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 84 87 ESE 5 9 11238 8584 2904 White 6
10 AM Wed 87 92 SE 5 9 12303 12176 6496 White 11
11 AM Wed 89 96 SSE 5 9 13141 13141 7461 White 14
12 Noon Wed 91 99 S 6 10 13762 13762 8082 White 17
1 PM Wed 92 100 SSW 6 10 13968 13968 8288 White 18
2 PM Wed 93 100 SW 8 11 13968 13968 8288 White 18
3 PM Wed 94 100 WSW 9 11 13968 13968 8288 White 18
4 PM Wed 94 98 WSW 9 11 13556 13556 7876 White 16
5 PM Wed 93 95 W 10 11 12933 12933 7253 White 14
6 PM Wed 91 91 W 10 12 12091 11643 5963 White 10
7 PM Wed 89 89 W 10 12 11666 10485 4805 White 8
8 PM Wed 87 87 W 10 13 11238 8584 2904 White 6
9 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 14 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 84 84 W 10 14 8725 5680 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 10 14 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 WSW 10 13 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 82 82 W 9 13 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 81 81 W 9 12 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 80 80 SW 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 79 79 S 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 78 78 SE 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 77 SE 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 77 SE 8 11 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 79 SE 8 11 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 83 SSE 9 11 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 82 87 SSE 9 12 11238 8584 2904 White 6
11 AM Thu 84 91 S 10 12 12091 11643 5963 White 10
12 Noon Thu 86 94 S 10 12 12724 12724 7044 White 13
1 PM Thu 88 96 S 10 12 13141 13141 7461 White 14
2 PM Thu 90 97 S 10 12 13348 13348 7668 White 15
3 PM Thu 91 97 SSW 10 12 13348 13348 7668 White 15
4 PM Thu 91 95 SSW 10 12 12933 12933 7253 White 14
5 PM Thu 90 92 SW 10 12 12303 12176 6496 White 11
6 PM Thu 88 88 SW 10 12 11452 9579 3899 White 7
7 PM Thu 86 86 SSW 10 13 11026 7448 1768 White 5
8 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 10 14 8725 5680 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 82 82 SSW 11 16 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 81 81 SSW 12 17 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 80 80 SSW 12 18 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 SSW 12 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 79 79 SSW 11 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 78 78 S 10 14 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 77 77 S 10 14 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 10 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 10 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 10 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 78 SSE 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 81 S 9 12 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 84 S 10 12 8725 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 81 87 S 10 13 11238 8584 2904 White 6
12 Noon Fri 82 89 S 10 14 11666 10485 4805 White 8
1 PM Fri 84 91 S 11 16 12091 11643 5963 White 10
2 PM Fri 85 91 S 11 16 12091 11643 5963 White 10
3 PM Fri 86 91 SSW 11 16 12091 11643 5963 White 10
4 PM Fri 86 89 SSW 11 14 11666 10485 4805 White 8
5 PM Fri 86 87 SSW 11 14 11238 8584 2904 White 6
6 PM Fri 85 85 SSW 11 16 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 84 84 SSW 11 16 8725 5680 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 82 82 SSW 11 17 6166 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 81 81 SSW 11 17 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 80 80 SSW 12 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 79 SSW 12 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SSW 12 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 S 11 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 76 76 S 10 14 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 75 S 10 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 74 SSE 9 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 74 74 SSE 9 11 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 74 74 SSE 9 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 8 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 SSE 8 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 79 SSE 9 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 81 S 9 11 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 83 S 10 12 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 81 85 S 10 13 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 83 88 S 10 13 11452 9579 3899 White 7
2 PM Sat 84 88 S 10 13 11452 9579 3899 White 7
3 PM Sat 85 88 SSW 10 13 11452 9579 3899 White 7
4 PM Sat 85 87 SSW 10 12 11238 8584 2904 White 6
5 PM Sat 84 85 SSW 10 12 9736 6084 404 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 83 83 SSW 10 12 7567 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 81 81 SSW 10 12 4631 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 80 80 SSW 10 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 79 79 SSW 10 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 10 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]