Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 14 18 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 12 16 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 S 10 13 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 S 10 12 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 S 10 13 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 S 10 13 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SSE 10 13 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SSE 11 14 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 S 10 16 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 S 11 17 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 S 11 17 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 62 SSW 12 18 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 63 SSW 14 19 4436 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 64 SW 16 23 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 61 64 SSW 16 23 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 61 63 SW 17 24 4436 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 61 SW 17 23 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 SW 16 21 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 13 18 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 13 18 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 12 17 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 10 13 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 9 12 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 10 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 WSW 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SSE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 SE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 57 SE 4 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 60 SSE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 61 SSE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 62 S 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 62 SSW 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 61 SSW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 60 SW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 SW 5 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 S 4 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 S 4 4 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 SE 4 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 5 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NNE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 NE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 ENE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 ESE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 64 SE 5 8 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 67 SE 5 8 7723 6223 543 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 64 67 S 6 9 7723 6223 543 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 64 67 S 6 9 7723 6223 543 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 64 66 S 6 8 7572 5680 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 64 65 SSW 5 6 7282 5680 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 63 63 SW 5 5 4436 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 6 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 5 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 NNE 4 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 ENE 3 5 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 64 67 ENE 3 5 7723 6223 543 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 66 69 ESE 3 5 8174 7556 1876 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 71 SSW 4 6 8912 7858 2178 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 69 72 WSW 5 6 9721 8135 2455 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 69 71 WSW 5 6 8912 7858 2178 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 5 5 8497 7707 2027 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 5 7875 7252 1572 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 6 7572 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 5 6 4436 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 NW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NNW 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 NNW 6 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 N 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 8 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 ENE 4 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 65 ESE 4 6 7282 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 66 69 SE 4 6 8174 7556 1876 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 68 71 SSE 5 8 8912 7858 2178 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 69 72 S 5 8 9721 8135 2455 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 70 73 SSW 6 9 9888 8455 2775 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 70 72 SSW 6 9 9721 8135 2455 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 69 70 SW 6 9 8497 7707 2027 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 68 68 SW 6 8 7875 7252 1572 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 6 7572 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 5 6 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 5 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 NNW 5 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 5 5 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NNE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 6 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 ESE 6 8 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 ESE 6 9 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 SSE 6 10 7282 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 65 68 SSE 8 11 7875 7252 1572 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 67 71 S 9 13 8912 7858 2178 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 68 72 S 10 14 9721 8135 2455 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 69 72 S 11 16 9721 8135 2455 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 69 71 S 11 16 8912 7858 2178 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 68 69 SSW 11 14 8174 7556 1876 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 11 13 7572 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 10 12 6340 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 10 12 4436 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 SSW 9 11 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 9 11 3179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 S 8 10 3179 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]