Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 N 3 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 64 NW 3 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 61 65 W 3 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 63 68 SW 3 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 65 69 SW 6 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 67 71 W 8 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 67 69 W 9 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 67 68 W 12 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 13 8218 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 13 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 12 4815 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 W 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 63 NW 8 4815 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 65 NW 9 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 63 68 N 10 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 65 69 NW 12 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 66 70 NW 13 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 67 69 NW 14 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 67 68 NW 15 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 16 7830 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 64 64 NW 17 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 17 4170 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 15 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 15 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 17 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 16 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 14 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 61 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 64 N 12 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 12 8218 5680 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 64 68 N 13 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 66 70 NW 13 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 67 69 NW 14 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 67 68 NW 14 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 67 67 NW 14 8218 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 66 66 NW 14 7830 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 64 64 NW 14 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 13 4170 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 64 N 6 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 64 68 N 6 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 66 71 N 6 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 68 72 N 6 9156 8714 3034 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 70 74 NW 7 9775 9000 3320 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 71 73 NW 8 9413 8865 3185 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 71 72 NW 9 9156 8714 3034 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 71 71 NW 10 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 70 70 NW 10 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 10 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 10 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 10 4815 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NW 10 4170 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NW 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NW 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 NW 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 65 NW 5 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 64 68 NW 5 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 66 71 NW 5 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 68 72 NW 5 9156 8714 3034 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 70 74 NW 7 9775 9000 3320 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 71 73 NW 8 9413 8865 3185 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 71 72 NW 10 9156 8714 3034 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 13 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 13 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 13 7830 5680 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 12 5068 5680 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 10 4815 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 9 4170 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 N 5 4815 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 66 N 5 7830 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 64 68 N 5 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 66 70 N 6 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 67 71 N 8 9020 8536 2856 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 68 70 N 9 8884 8171 2491 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 68 69 NW 12 8739 7788 2108 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 68 68 NW 13 8560 5762 82 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 67 67 NW 14 8218 5680 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 65 65 NW 14 5829 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 62 62 NW 14 4170 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 N 13 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring[email protected]