Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 N 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 E 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 E 6 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 E 6 4933 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 53 N 7 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 51 53 N 8 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 51 52 N 8 4933 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 N 8 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 N 13 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 NE 16 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 17 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 17 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NE 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 E 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 E 18 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 17 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 16 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 15 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 14 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 13 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 NE 13 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 E 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 E 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 NE 10 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 51 NE 9 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 51 N 8 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 50 N 8 3994 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 NW 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 NW 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 NE 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 NE 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 7 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 7 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 51 53 NW 8 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 50 51 NW 7 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 NW 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NW 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 NE 5 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 NE 5 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 5 5373 5680 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 55 57 N 6 6340 5680 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 55 57 N 6 6340 5680 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 54 55 N 6 5373 5680 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 52 52 NW 6 4933 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 NW 6 3994 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 NW 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 NE 5 3994 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 5 5103 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 54 56 NE 6 6042 5680 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 56 58 N 6 6618 5680 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 56 58 N 7 6618 5680 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 55 56 N 7 6042 5680 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 6 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 51 51 NW 6 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 NW 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 NE 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 NE 7 4933 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 56 NE 7 6042 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 55 57 NE 7 6340 5680 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 56 58 E 8 6618 5680 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 56 58 E 8 6618 5680 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 56 57 NE 7 6340 5680 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 54 54 N 7 5103 5680 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 53 53 N 6 5019 5680 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 6 4488 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 10 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 NE 12 3832 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]