Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9829, -111.798, 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 WNW 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 N 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 N 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 NNE 6 11 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 NNE 5 11 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 79 NNE 5 8 5004 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 83 NE 3 6 12137 11303 6203 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 79 85 ENE 2 5 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 83 89 E 3 6 13061 12784 7684 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 84 89 E 2 8 13061 12784 7684 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 85 89 ESE 2 8 13061 12784 7684 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 86 88 SSE 2 8 12934 12232 7132 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 84 84 SW 3 8 12187 11952 6852 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 81 81 WSW 4 9 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 4 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 73 73 WNW 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 NNE 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 N 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 N 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 NNE 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 E 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 NNE 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 N 6 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 ENE 6 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 E 5 11 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 78 E 5 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 81 E 5 9 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 79 85 ESE 5 9 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 81 87 SE 4 10 12867 12176 7076 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 83 88 SSE 4 10 12934 12232 7132 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 84 88 SSE 4 10 12934 12232 7132 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 84 86 SSE 4 10 12801 12125 7025 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 83 83 SSE 4 9 12137 11303 6203 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 80 80 S 4 8 11680 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 4 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 N 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 NE 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NE 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 NE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 NE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 NE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NE 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NE 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NE 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NE 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 NE 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 E 3 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 78 SE 4 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 77 81 SSE 4 10 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 79 83 S 4 11 12137 11303 6203 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 81 85 SSW 5 12 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 82 85 SSW 5 13 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 83 85 SW 5 13 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 82 83 SW 5 13 12137 11303 6203 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 81 81 SW 5 13 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 79 79 SW 5 12 5004 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 5 11 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 5 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 5 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 WNW 6 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 N 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 NNE 4 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 2 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 NNE 2 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 72 ENE 2 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 75 SSE 2 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 78 SSW 3 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 80 SSW 4 10 11680 5100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 78 81 SW 4 12 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 79 82 SW 5 13 12087 5100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 79 81 WSW 6 16 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 78 79 WNW 8 17 5004 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 77 77 NW 8 18 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 75 75 NW 8 17 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 73 N 6 13 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 N 5 11 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 NNE 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 4 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NE 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 NE 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 E 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 75 SSE 2 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 74 79 S 2 6 5004 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 77 82 S 2 8 12087 5100 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 79 85 SSW 3 10 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 81 86 SSW 4 11 12801 12125 7025 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 82 85 SSW 4 11 12311 12075 6975 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 81 83 SSW 5 11 12137 11303 6203 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 80 80 SSW 5 10 11680 5100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 78 78 SW 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 N 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 NNE 5 6 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NNE 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 4 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 NE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 NE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 3 4 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 E 3 5 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 SSE 3 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 77 S 3 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 75 80 S 4 10 11680 5100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 77 82 SSW 5 11 12087 5100 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 78 82 SSW 6 12 12087 5100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 79 82 SSW 6 13 12087 5100 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 79 81 SW 5 13 12032 5100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 78 78 SW 5 13 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 5 12 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 5 10 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 5 9 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 NNW 5 8 4088 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]