Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 5 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 3 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 3 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 3 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 62 E 5 5119 5100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 61 65 SE 6 8316 5117 17 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 63 67 S 7 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 65 69 S 9 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 67 71 SW 10 9518 8903 3803 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 67 69 SW 12 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 67 68 SW 13 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 66 66 SW 13 8606 6125 1025 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 64 64 SW 13 7927 5100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 13 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 SW 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SW 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 5 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 3 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 3 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 61 N 7 4887 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 64 NW 7 7927 5100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 63 68 NW 7 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 69 NW 8 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 67 71 NW 9 9518 8903 3803 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 67 69 W 10 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 67 68 W 12 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 66 66 W 12 8606 6125 1025 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 7927 5100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 5119 5100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 NW 9 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 9 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 N 9 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 63 N 8 6186 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 8 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 65 69 N 7 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 67 71 NW 7 9518 8903 3803 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 68 70 W 7 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 69 70 W 7 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 68 68 W 7 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 7 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 8316 5117 17 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 5119 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 9 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NE 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 63 N 10 6186 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 63 67 N 9 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 66 71 N 9 9518 8903 3803 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 68 72 N 9 9880 9039 3939 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 70 74 N 9 10512 9463 4363 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 71 73 NW 9 10239 9175 4075 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 72 73 W 9 10239 9175 4075 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 71 71 W 9 9518 8903 3803 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 70 70 SW 9 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 8 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 8316 5117 17 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 62 62 NW 8 5119 5100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 4887 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 7 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NW 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 W 5 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 65 W 3 8316 5117 17 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 64 68 SW 2 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 72 SW 2 9880 9039 3939 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 69 73 SW 3 10239 9175 4075 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 71 74 SW 5 10512 9463 4363 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 72 74 SW 6 10512 9463 4363 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 72 73 SW 8 10239 9175 4075 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 72 72 SW 9 9880 9039 3939 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 10 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 8316 5117 17 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 5119 5100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 4887 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 7 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 6 4308 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 N 7 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 N 7 6186 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 62 66 N 7 8606 6125 1025 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 64 68 N 7 8921 8273 3173 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 66 70 N 8 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 67 70 N 8 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 68 70 N 8 9194 8764 3664 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 68 69 NW 8 9058 8585 3485 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 67 67 NW 9 8785 7888 2788 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 8606 6125 1025 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 63 63 NW 9 6186 5100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 61 61 NW 10 4887 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 N 10 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 N 12 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 13 3999 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 14 3999 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]