Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9829, -111.798, 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 NNW 10 14 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 80 80 N 9 13 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 79 79 N 8 8 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 78 78 SW 10 14 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 78 78 S 9 12 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 78 78 SSW 12 17 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 77 77 W 9 12 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 76 76 W 9 12 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 76 WNW 5 5 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 76 WSW 11 16 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 76 WSW 11 16 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 77 W 9 12 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 76 79 W 8 8 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 77 81 W 9 12 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 79 84 WSW 12 17 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 80 83 SSW 11 16 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 81 83 W 12 17 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 80 81 SW 13 19 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 14 20 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 13 19 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 14 20 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 16 23 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 8 8 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 76 76 SSW 10 14 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SSW 10 14 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 9 12 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 76 76 S 8 8 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 S 9 12 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 75 75 S 9 12 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 SSE 6 6 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 75 S 6 6 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 S 9 12 3468 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 77 SSE 5 5 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 76 80 ESE 5 5 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 77 83 SE 3 3 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 78 86 SW 8 8 11834 10376 5276 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 79 87 SSW 10 13 12009 10708 5608 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 81 89 SW 11 14 12949 11795 6695 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 82 89 SW 11 16 12949 11795 6695 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 83 89 SW 11 17 12949 11795 6695 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 83 87 SW 11 17 12009 10708 5608 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 83 85 WSW 11 16 11085 9848 4748 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 82 WSW 11 16 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 80 80 WSW 11 16 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 10 14 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 10 13 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 9 9 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 8 8 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 WNW 5 5 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 77 77 N 3 3 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 76 76 NE 2 2 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 75 75 NNE 2 2 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 NNE 3 3 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 NNE 4 4 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 N 4 4 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 77 NNW 5 5 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 77 79 WNW 5 5 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 78 82 W 6 6 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 80 86 WSW 8 8 11834 10376 5276 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 81 89 SW 9 9 12949 11795 6695 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 82 91 SW 9 13 13669 12369 7269 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 84 93 SW 10 13 14386 13280 8180 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 85 93 SW 10 14 14386 13280 8180 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 86 92 SW 11 16 13869 12830 7730 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 86 90 WSW 11 16 13404 11969 6869 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 86 88 WSW 11 16 12483 11023 5923 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 85 85 WSW 11 16 11085 9848 4748 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 10 14 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 13 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 80 80 WNW 9 9 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 79 79 WNW 8 8 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 78 78 NW 6 6 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 NW 6 6 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 77 77 NW 6 6 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 76 76 NNW 5 5 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 75 N 5 5 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 N 5 5 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 N 5 5 4254 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 76 76 N 5 5 5045 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 78 NW 5 5 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 78 80 WNW 5 5 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 80 84 W 5 5 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 82 88 SW 5 5 12483 11023 5923 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 84 92 SSW 5 5 13869 12830 7730 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 86 95 SSW 5 5 15583 13810 8710 White 19
1 PM Sat 88 97 SW 5 5 15991 15052 9952 White 21
2 PM Sat 89 97 SW 5 5 15991 15052 9952 White 21
3 PM Sat 90 96 WSW 6 6 15787 14063 8963 White 20
4 PM Sat 90 94 WSW 6 6 15378 13612 8512 White 18
5 PM Sat 89 91 WSW 6 6 13669 12369 7269 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 88 88 W 6 6 12483 11023 5923 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 86 86 W 6 6 11834 10376 5276 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 84 84 WNW 6 6 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 83 83 NW 6 6 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 81 81 NW 5 5 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 80 80 NNW 5 5 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 NNW 6 6 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 78 78 N 6 6 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 77 77 N 8 8 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 77 77 N 8 8 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 77 77 NNE 8 8 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 77 77 NNE 8 8 5933 5100 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 78 78 NE 8 8 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 79 80 ENE 6 6 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 81 83 E 5 5 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 83 87 SE 4 4 12009 10708 5608 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 85 91 SSE 3 3 13669 12369 7269 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 87 94 S 3 3 15378 13612 8512 White 18
12 Noon Sun 89 97 S 2 2 15991 15052 9952 White 21
1 PM Sun 90 98 SSW 2 2 16192 16192 11092 White 22
2 PM Sun 91 98 SW 3 3 16192 16192 11092 White 22
3 PM Sun 92 97 WSW 3 3 15991 15052 9952 White 21
4 PM Sun 92 95 WSW 3 3 15583 13810 8710 White 19
5 PM Sun 91 93 W 4 4 14386 13280 8180 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 90 90 W 4 4 13404 11969 6869 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 88 88 NW 5 5 12483 11023 5923 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 86 86 NNW 5 5 11834 10376 5276 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 84 84 N 6 6 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 83 83 NE 6 6 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 82 82 NE 6 6 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 NE 8 8 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 81 81 NE 8 8 8951 6706 1606 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 80 80 NE 8 8 8239 5905 805 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 79 79 NE 8 8 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 78 78 NE 6 6 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 78 78 NE 6 6 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 78 78 ENE 6 6 6753 5100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 79 79 E 5 5 7518 5100 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 80 82 E 5 5 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 81 84 ESE 5 5 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 83 87 ESE 4 4 12009 10708 5608 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 84 88 SE 4 4 12483 11023 5923 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 86 90 SE 5 5 13404 11969 6869 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 87 92 ESE 5 5 13869 12830 7730 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 88 92 ESE 6 6 13869 12830 7730 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 88 91 ESE 8 8 13669 12369 7269 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 87 89 ESE 8 8 12949 11795 6695 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 86 87 E 9 9 12009 10708 5608 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 85 85 E 9 12 11085 9848 4748 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 84 84 E 9 13 10768 8838 3738 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 83 83 E 10 13 10447 8165 3065 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 82 82 E 10 13 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 82 82 E 9 13 9934 7457 2357 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]