Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SE 1 3 11839 10361 2761 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 70 70 SSE 2 5 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 3 6 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 69 69 SSW 4 8 10745 8745 1145 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 68 68 SSW 4 8 10410 8030 430 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 68 68 SW 4 8 10410 8030 430 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 67 67 SW 4 9 9848 7600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 70 70 SW 4 7 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 72 72 WSW 3 6 12036 10712 3112 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 75 76 WSW 3 4 13717 12458 4858 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 78 79 WSW 3 4 16017 13676 6076 White 13
11 AM Wed 81 83 WSW 3 5 16859 16859 9259 White 17
12 Noon Wed 84 86 WSW 3 5 17488 17488 9888 White 20
1 PM Wed 85 87 WSW 5 7 17696 17696 10096 White 21
2 PM Wed 86 88 WSW 6 8 17902 17902 10302 White 22
3 PM Wed 86 87 WSW 8 10 17696 17696 10096 White 21
4 PM Wed 85 86 WSW 9 12 17488 17488 9888 White 20
5 PM Wed 85 86 W 10 13 17488 17488 9888 White 20
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 11 15 17069 17069 9469 White 18
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 9 12 16859 16859 9259 White 17
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 9 16439 14486 6886 White 15
9 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 4 6 16229 13882 6282 White 14
10 PM Wed 78 78 SW 4 6 14729 13407 5807 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 77 77 SSE 4 6 13924 12938 5338 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 ESE 4 6 13717 12458 4858 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 74 74 SE 4 7 13020 11814 4214 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 73 73 S 4 7 12535 11040 3440 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 72 72 SW 4 8 12036 10712 3112 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 3 6 11839 10361 2761 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 70 70 WSW 2 5 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 69 69 W 2 3 10745 8745 1145 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 2 3 11839 10361 2761 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 73 75 NW 2 3 13495 11995 4395 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 76 80 NNW 3 3 16229 13882 6282 White 14
10 AM Thu 79 84 NNW 2 2 17069 17069 9469 White 18
11 AM Thu 81 87 NW 1 2 17696 17696 10096 White 21
12 Noon Thu 84 90 WNW 0 1 18312 18312 10712 White 24
1 PM Thu 86 93 WNW 3 3 18926 18926 11326 White 26
2 PM Thu 88 95 W 5 6 19371 19371 11771 White 28
3 PM Thu 90 96 W 8 9 19572 19572 11972 White 29
4 PM Thu 90 94 W 10 12 19129 19129 11529 White 27
5 PM Thu 90 92 W 13 15 18722 18722 11122 White 25
6 PM Thu 90 90 W 16 18 18312 18312 10712 White 24
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 14 18 17696 17696 10096 White 21
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 12 17 17278 17278 9678 White 19
9 PM Thu 82 82 W 11 17 16649 16649 9049 White 16
10 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 15 16229 13882 6282 White 14
11 PM Thu 78 78 W 7 13 14729 13407 5807 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 5 11 13495 11995 4395 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 5 11 13020 11814 4214 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 73 73 W 4 10 12535 11040 3440 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 4 9 12036 10712 3112 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 71 71 WNW 4 9 11839 10361 2761 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 4 9 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 4 9 11076 9808 2208 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 73 74 SSW 4 7 13020 11814 4214 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 76 78 ESE 3 5 14729 13407 5807 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 80 84 N 2 3 17069 17069 9469 White 18
10 AM Fri 82 88 ESE 2 2 17902 17902 10302 White 22
11 AM Fri 85 93 SW 1 1 18926 18926 11326 White 26
12 Noon Fri 88 97 NW 0 0 19772 19772 12172 White 30
1 PM Fri 90 99 NW 2 3 20173 20173 12573 White 32
2 PM Fri 92 100 WNW 5 6 20373 20373 12773 White 33
3 PM Fri 95 101 W 7 8 20570 20570 12970 White 34
4 PM Fri 95 99 W 11 12 20173 20173 12573 White 32
5 PM Fri 94 96 W 14 16 19572 19572 11972 White 29
6 PM Fri 94 94 WNW 17 20 19129 19129 11529 White 27
7 PM Fri 93 93 WNW 14 17 18926 18926 11326 White 26
8 PM Fri 92 92 WNW 11 15 18722 18722 11122 White 25
9 PM Fri 90 90 WNW 8 12 18312 18312 10712 White 24
10 PM Fri 86 86 WNW 7 12 17488 17488 9888 White 20
11 PM Fri 82 82 WNW 6 12 16649 16649 9049 White 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]