Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 6 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 6 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 50 W 3 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 51 54 S 3 9146 8698 1098 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 52 56 S 3 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 54 59 S 3 10642 9760 2160 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 57 62 S 5 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 59 63 S 6 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 61 63 S 7 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 61 62 NW 7 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 10642 9760 2160 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 9 10161 9140 1540 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 9 9146 8698 1098 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 9 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 7 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 8 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 8 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 10 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SW 12 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 W 12 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 W 12 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 50 W 10 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 51 54 W 9 9146 8698 1098 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 52 56 W 9 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 54 59 W 10 10642 9760 2160 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 57 62 W 12 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 59 63 W 13 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 60 62 W 13 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 61 62 W 13 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 13 10642 9760 2160 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 13 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 13 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 12 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 48 48 NW 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NW 8 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NW 8 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NW 7 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 6 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NW 6 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NW 3 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 2 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 SE 2 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 49 SE 3 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 50 53 NE 5 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 52 56 NE 6 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 54 59 NE 6 10642 9760 2160 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 57 62 NE 6 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 60 64 NE 6 11832 10939 3339 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 62 64 NE 6 11832 10939 3339 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 62 63 N 6 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 60 60 SW 5 10799 10132 2532 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 5 10486 9384 1784 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 55 55 SW 3 9405 8859 1259 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 5 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 51 51 SW 6 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 50 50 S 7 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 7 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 8 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 9 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 48 48 S 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SE 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 52 E 10 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 53 56 E 10 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 54 58 NE 10 10486 9384 1784 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 56 61 NE 10 10956 10472 2872 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 59 64 N 10 11832 10939 3339 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 62 66 N 9 12488 11250 3650 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 63 65 N 9 12278 11095 3495 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 64 65 N 8 12278 11095 3495 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 11112 10628 3028 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 10799 10132 2532 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 10161 9140 1540 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 54 54 NW 7 9146 8698 1098 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 53 53 NW 7 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 53 53 NW 7 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 52 52 W 7 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 W 8 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 8 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 50 50 W 8 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 8 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 49 49 W 8 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 48 48 W 8 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 W 8 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 8 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 53 W 9 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 54 57 W 9 10161 9140 1540 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 56 60 W 10 10799 10132 2532 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 58 63 W 10 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 61 66 W 12 12488 11250 3650 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 64 68 W 12 13619 12213 4613 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 65 67 W 13 12669 11773 4173 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 65 66 W 13 12488 11250 3650 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 14 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 14 10956 10472 2872 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 14 10486 9384 1784 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 14 9405 8859 1259 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 9146 8698 1098 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 9005 8499 899 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 52 52 W 12 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 10 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 10 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 51 51 SW 10 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 48 48 SW 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 W 10 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 52 W 10 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 53 56 W 10 9785 8999 1399 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 54 58 W 12 10486 9384 1784 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 56 61 W 12 10956 10472 2872 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 58 63 W 13 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 61 65 W 13 12278 11095 3495 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 62 64 W 14 11832 10939 3339 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 62 63 W 15 11268 10784 3184 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 60 60 W 16 10799 10132 2532 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 16 10486 9384 1784 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 16 9405 8859 1259 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 15 8864 8100 500 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 8704 7600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 14 8509 7600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 13 8106 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 12 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 S 10 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 S 9 7212 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 S 9 6421 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]