Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NW 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 NW 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NNW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 N 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 NNE 8 12 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 66 70 NE 9 13 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 68 74 NE 9 13 13491 12849 5249 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 70 77 ENE 9 13 14607 13410 5810 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 70 76 ENE 8 12 14358 12986 5386 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 71 76 ENE 6 10 14358 12986 5386 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 71 75 ENE 5 9 13929 12917 5317 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 71 73 ENE 5 9 13045 12781 5181 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 5 9 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 65 65 ENE 6 10 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 63 63 E 9 13 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 ESE 11 17 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 ESE 12 19 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 ESE 12 19 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 ESE 12 19 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 ESE 12 19 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 11 17 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 9 13 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 9 13 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 E 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 E 10 16 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 67 E 10 16 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 66 70 E 10 16 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 67 72 E 11 17 12929 12226 4626 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 68 72 E 11 17 12929 12226 4626 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 69 72 E 10 16 12929 12226 4626 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 68 70 E 9 13 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 68 69 E 8 12 12235 12065 4465 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 67 67 E 6 10 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 10 10008 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 ESE 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 ESE 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 ESE 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 ESE 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 SE 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 SE 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 SSE 4 6 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 65 67 SSE 4 6 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 66 69 SSE 4 6 12235 12065 4465 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 67 69 S 4 6 12235 12065 4465 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 68 70 S 5 9 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 67 68 SW 8 12 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 16 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 11 17 12072 7600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 9 13 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 SSW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SSW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SSW 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 WNW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 N 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 NNE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 65 NE 5 9 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 64 69 ENE 5 9 12235 12065 4465 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 66 71 NE 4 6 12860 12169 4569 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 66 70 NNW 4 6 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 67 70 WNW 3 5 12792 12117 4517 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 66 68 WNW 5 9 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 67 68 WNW 8 12 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 9 13 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 9 13 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 8 12 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 NW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 NE 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NNE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 NNW 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 ENE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 ENE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 67 E 4 6 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 66 71 ESE 4 6 12860 12169 4569 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 67 73 ESE 3 5 13045 12781 5181 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 68 73 ESE 3 5 13045 12781 5181 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 69 73 ESE 3 5 13045 12781 5181 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 68 71 SSE 4 6 12860 12169 4569 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 68 69 WSW 6 10 12235 12065 4465 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 67 67 WNW 8 12 12124 7600 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 12 10008 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 SW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 S 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SSE 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 S 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NW 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NNW 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NNW 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 3 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 5 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 ENE 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 E 5 9 10008 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 68 SE 5 9 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 71 SE 5 9 12860 12169 4569 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 69 74 S 5 9 13491 12849 5249 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 70 75 SSW 5 9 13929 12917 5317 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 70 74 SW 5 9 13491 12849 5249 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 70 73 WSW 6 10 13045 12781 5181 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 70 71 W 8 12 12860 12169 4569 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 13 12176 11871 4271 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 12 11919 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 10 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 5 9 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 4 6 7438 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]