Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 5 8 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 4 6 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 3 5 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 62 62 WNW 3 4 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 4 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 61 61 NNW 3 4 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 4 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 4 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 64 65 NNE 3 5 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 64 66 N 5 8 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 68 WNW 6 10 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 65 68 W 9 12 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 66 69 W 9 14 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 66 69 W 10 14 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 66 69 W 10 16 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 66 68 W 11 17 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 66 67 W 11 17 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 65 66 W 12 18 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 18 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 19 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 18 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 12 18 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 11 18 9625 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 60 60 W 11 17 9625 9150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 WSW 10 16 8562 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 9 14 9625 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 9 12 8562 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SW 8 11 8562 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SSW 6 11 8562 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SSW 6 10 7801 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 10 8562 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 6 10 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 64 66 WSW 6 10 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 64 68 WSW 6 11 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 65 71 WSW 8 11 14686 13378 4228 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 67 74 WSW 8 12 16682 14481 5331 White 15
12 Noon Thu 68 76 WSW 9 14 17109 17109 7959 White 17
1 PM Thu 68 76 W 11 16 17109 17109 7959 White 17
2 PM Thu 69 75 W 12 18 16896 16896 7746 White 16
3 PM Thu 69 74 W 12 19 16682 14481 5331 White 15
4 PM Thu 68 72 W 13 20 16254 13667 4517 White 13
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 13 20 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 20 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 13 19 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 12 19 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 12 18 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 11 17 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 11 16 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WNW 10 16 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 10 14 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 9 13 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 11 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 9 9625 9150 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 9 9625 9150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 9 10276 9150 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 64 65 W 6 11 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 66 68 W 8 12 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 66 70 W 8 12 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 68 74 W 8 12 16682 14481 5331 White 15
11 AM Fri 69 77 W 9 12 17322 17322 8172 White 18
12 Noon Fri 70 79 W 10 14 17747 17747 8597 White 20
1 PM Fri 71 80 W 11 17 17957 17957 8807 White 21
2 PM Fri 71 79 W 12 18 17747 17747 8597 White 20
3 PM Fri 71 77 W 12 19 17322 17322 8172 White 18
4 PM Fri 71 75 W 12 19 16896 16896 7746 White 16
5 PM Fri 70 72 W 12 18 16254 13667 4517 White 13
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 12 18 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 11 18 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 11 17 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 11 16 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 10 16 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 9 14 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 WNW 8 12 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 6 11 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 5 9 11009 9593 443 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 62 62 SW 5 8 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 4 6 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 3 5 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 3 5 10672 9150 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 66 67 SW 4 6 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 68 70 WSW 4 6 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 68 72 WSW 5 8 16254 13667 4517 White 13
10 AM Sat 70 76 W 6 9 17109 17109 7959 White 17
11 AM Sat 72 80 W 6 10 17957 17957 8807 White 21
12 Noon Sat 73 82 W 8 12 18374 18374 9224 White 23
1 PM Sat 74 83 W 9 13 18583 18583 9433 White 24
2 PM Sat 74 82 W 10 14 18374 18374 9224 White 23
3 PM Sat 74 80 WNW 11 16 17957 17957 8807 White 21
4 PM Sat 74 78 WNW 11 17 17535 17535 8385 White 19
5 PM Sat 73 75 WNW 12 18 16896 16896 7746 White 16
6 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 11 18 16254 13667 4517 White 13
7 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 11 17 16254 13667 4517 White 13
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 11 16 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 10 14 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 67 67 NNW 9 13 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 66 66 NNW 9 13 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 8 12 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 8 11 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 66 66 NNE 8 11 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 65 65 NE 6 10 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 6 10 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 6 10 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 6 10 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 68 69 ENE 6 9 13700 12408 3258 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 70 72 ENE 6 9 16254 13667 4517 White 13
9 AM Sun 70 74 ENE 5 9 16682 14481 5331 White 15
10 AM Sun 72 78 ENE 5 9 17535 17535 8385 White 19
11 AM Sun 73 77 ENE 5 9 17322 17322 8172 White 18
12 Noon Sun 74 79 ENE 4 8 17747 17747 8597 White 20
1 PM Sun 75 80 NE 4 6 17957 17957 8807 White 21
2 PM Sun 75 79 NE 3 4 17747 17747 8597 White 20
3 PM Sun 75 78 NNE 2 4 17535 17535 8385 White 19
4 PM Sun 75 77 NNE 2 3 17322 17322 8172 White 18
5 PM Sun 73 74 NNE 3 4 16682 14481 5331 White 15
6 PM Sun 72 72 NNE 4 6 16254 13667 4517 White 13
7 PM Sun 72 72 NE 6 10 16254 13667 4517 White 13
8 PM Sun 70 70 ENE 9 13 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 68 68 ENE 11 17 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 66 66 E 13 20 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 66 66 E 16 24 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 E 16 25 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 66 66 E 17 25 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 65 65 E 17 25 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 16 25 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 16 24 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 16 24 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 16 23 11806 10251 1101 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 67 67 ESE 14 23 12963 11789 2639 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 68 70 ESE 14 21 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 68 71 ESE 14 21 14686 13378 4228 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 70 74 ESE 13 21 16682 14481 5331 White 15
11 AM Mon 71 74 ESE 13 20 16682 14481 5331 White 15
12 Noon Mon 72 75 ESE 13 20 16896 16896 7746 White 16
1 PM Mon 72 75 ESE 13 20 16896 16896 7746 White 16
2 PM Mon 72 75 ESE 13 20 16896 16896 7746 White 16
3 PM Mon 72 74 ESE 13 20 16682 14481 5331 White 15
4 PM Mon 72 73 ESE 13 20 16467 13876 4726 White 14
5 PM Mon 71 72 ESE 13 20 16254 13667 4517 White 13
6 PM Mon 70 70 ESE 13 20 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 70 70 ESE 13 21 13910 12899 3749 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 68 68 ESE 14 21 13448 11973 2823 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 66 66 ESE 14 23 12465 10986 1836 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 65 65 ESE 14 23 11991 10652 1502 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]