Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 41 41 SW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 SW 5 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 49 W 5 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 52 W 3 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 49 54 W 3 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 51 55 W 5 10959 10474 1324 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 53 57 W 6 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 53 55 W 7 10959 10474 1324 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 53 54 W 8 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 8 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 9765 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 7 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 W 7 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 SW 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SW 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SW 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 49 W 8 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 51 W 9 10147 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 48 53 W 10 10641 9753 603 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 50 55 W 12 10959 10474 1324 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 52 56 W 13 11117 10632 1482 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 52 54 W 14 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 52 53 W 15 10641 9753 603 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 10147 9150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 14 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 13 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 12 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 NW 7 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 6 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 5 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 46 N 5 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 49 N 5 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 52 NE 5 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 50 55 NE 5 10959 10474 1324 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 52 57 SE 5 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 54 58 SE 5 11863 10948 1798 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 55 57 SE 6 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 54 55 SE 5 10959 10474 1324 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 10641 9753 603 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 10147 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 SW 8 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 SW 9 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 9 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SW 9 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 SW 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 S 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 S 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 S 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 SW 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 SW 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 49 W 9 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 52 NW 10 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 50 54 NW 10 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 52 57 N 10 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 54 59 N 10 12316 11106 1956 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 57 61 NW 10 12689 11819 2669 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 57 59 NW 10 12316 11106 1956 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 57 58 NW 9 11863 10948 1798 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 11117 10632 1482 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 50 50 NW 9 9765 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 50 50 NW 9 9765 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 49 49 NW 9 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 W 9 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 9 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 8 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 8 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 50 W 10 9765 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 50 53 W 12 10641 9753 603 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 52 56 W 12 11117 10632 1482 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 54 59 W 13 12316 11106 1956 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 56 61 W 13 12689 11819 2669 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 58 62 W 14 13741 12266 3116 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 58 60 W 14 12507 11263 2113 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 58 59 W 14 12316 11106 1956 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 57 57 W 14 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 14 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 10147 9150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 10147 9150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 50 50 W 13 9765 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 9377 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 10 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 10 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 W 9 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 8 8991 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 W 8 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 W 9 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 W 10 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 52 W 10 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 50 54 W 12 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 52 57 W 13 11276 10790 1640 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 53 58 W 14 11863 10948 1798 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 55 59 W 15 12316 11106 1956 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 56 58 W 15 11863 10948 1798 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 55 56 W 16 11117 10632 1482 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 10800 10131 981 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 17 10482 9370 220 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 17 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 16 9134 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 16 8848 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 15 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 SW 14 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SW 13 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 12 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 S 12 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 S 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 10 8780 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]