Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 WNW 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 59 N 9 13 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 60 62 N 9 13 12172 11841 2691 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 61 65 N 9 13 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 62 68 N 8 12 13495 12849 3699 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 64 71 N 6 10 14622 13429 4279 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 66 72 NNE 5 9 14870 13869 4719 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 66 71 NNE 4 6 14622 13429 4279 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 66 70 NNE 4 6 14373 12987 3837 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 65 67 N 4 6 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 63 63 N 4 6 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 4 6 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 9 12067 9150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 58 58 ENE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 ESE 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 ESE 10 16 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 ESE 11 17 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 12 19 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 ESE 12 19 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 59 61 ESE 12 19 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 60 64 ESE 12 19 12789 12114 2964 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 61 66 ESE 11 17 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 62 68 ESE 10 16 13495 12849 3699 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 64 70 ESE 9 13 14373 12987 3837 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 64 69 ESE 8 12 13941 12918 3768 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 64 67 ESE 8 12 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 63 65 ESE 6 10 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 61 61 ESE 6 10 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 59 59 ESE 6 10 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 58 58 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 SE 5 9 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 59 61 SSE 5 9 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 60 63 SSE 5 9 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 61 65 S 4 6 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 63 66 SW 4 6 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 63 65 SW 4 6 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 63 65 SW 6 10 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 62 63 SSW 9 13 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 11 17 12067 9150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 10 16 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 SW 3 5 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 SSW 2 3 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 S 2 3 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 ESE 1 2 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 E 1 2 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 E 1 2 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 2 3 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 3 5 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SE 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 SSE 6 10 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 59 62 S 5 9 12172 11841 2691 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 60 64 S 4 6 12789 12114 2964 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 61 66 SSW 4 6 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 62 67 WSW 5 9 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 66 W 5 9 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 62 65 W 6 10 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 62 63 WSW 8 12 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 9 13 12067 9150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NNW 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 9 13 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 ESE 6 10 12067 9150 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 59 63 ESE 5 9 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 60 65 ESE 5 9 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 61 67 SSE 5 9 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 63 68 SW 5 9 13495 12849 3699 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 62 66 W 5 9 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 62 65 WSW 5 9 12858 12167 3017 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 62 63 SW 6 10 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 6 10 12067 9150 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 N 5 9 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 ENE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 E 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 8 12 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 SSE 6 10 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 60 63 SSW 6 10 12231 12062 2912 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 61 66 SW 5 9 12927 12223 3073 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 62 67 SW 5 9 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 64 69 SW 6 10 13941 12918 3768 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 64 68 WSW 6 10 13495 12849 3699 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 64 67 WSW 6 10 13041 12780 3630 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 63 64 W 6 10 12789 12114 2964 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 6 10 12120 9150 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 6 10 11877 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 6 10 7438 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]