Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 NNE 0 1 16132 16132 9007 White 17
1 AM Tue 68 68 E 0 1 15716 15716 8591 White 15
2 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 0 1 15301 15301 8176 White 13
3 AM Tue 64 64 SSW 0 1 14887 14887 7762 White 11
4 AM Tue 63 63 S 0 1 14677 14677 7552 White 10
5 AM Tue 62 62 SE 0 2 14465 14465 7340 White 9
6 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 1 2 14254 13848 6723 White 8
7 AM Tue 64 64 SE 1 2 14887 14887 7762 White 11
8 AM Tue 66 67 S 2 3 15509 15509 8384 White 14
9 AM Tue 68 71 SW 2 3 16338 16338 9213 White 18
10 AM Tue 71 76 SW 5 6 17356 17356 10231 White 23
11 AM Tue 74 81 SW 8 10 18361 18361 11236 White 27
12 Noon Tue 77 85 SW 12 13 19187 19187 12062 White 31
1 PM Tue 79 87 SW 13 14 19577 19577 12452 White 33
2 PM Tue 80 87 WSW 13 15 19577 19577 12452 White 33
3 PM Tue 82 87 WSW 14 16 19577 19577 12452 White 33
4 PM Tue 81 84 WSW 14 16 18991 18991 11866 White 30
5 PM Tue 80 81 WSW 14 16 18361 18361 11236 White 27
6 PM Tue 79 79 WSW 13 15 17962 17962 10837 White 26
7 PM Tue 75 75 WSW 13 17 17153 17153 10028 White 22
8 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 11 18 16542 16542 9417 White 19
9 PM Tue 68 68 WSW 11 19 15716 15716 8591 White 15
10 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 11 19 16132 16132 9007 White 17
11 PM Tue 73 73 WSW 11 19 16747 16747 9622 White 20
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 WSW 11 18 17153 17153 10028 White 22
1 AM Wed 73 73 WSW 7 13 16747 16747 9622 White 20
2 AM Wed 71 71 SW 4 7 16338 16338 9213 White 18
3 AM Wed 68 68 SW 1 2 15716 15716 8591 White 15
4 AM Wed 67 67 S 1 2 15509 15509 8384 White 14
5 AM Wed 66 66 ESE 1 2 15301 15301 8176 White 13
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 1 2 15094 15094 7969 White 12
7 AM Wed 68 69 E 1 2 15923 15923 8798 White 16
8 AM Wed 71 73 SSE 2 2 16747 16747 9622 White 20
9 AM Wed 74 78 SSW 2 3 17760 17760 10635 White 25
10 AM Wed 77 83 SSW 4 6 18789 18789 11664 White 29
11 AM Wed 80 88 SSW 7 8 19771 19771 12646 White 34
12 Noon Wed 82 91 SW 10 11 20352 20352 13227 White 37
1 PM Wed 84 92 SW 11 13 20545 20545 13420 White 38
2 PM Wed 86 93 SW 12 14 20735 20735 13610 White 39
3 PM Wed 87 92 SW 13 15 20545 20545 13420 White 38
4 PM Wed 86 89 SW 15 17 19966 19966 12841 White 35
5 PM Wed 85 86 SW 16 18 19381 19381 12256 White 32
6 PM Wed 84 84 WSW 17 20 18991 18991 11866 White 30
7 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 18 24 18789 18789 11664 White 29
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 19 28 18560 18560 11435 White 28
9 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 19 31 18560 18560 11435 White 28
10 PM Wed 79 79 SW 15 25 17962 17962 10837 White 26
11 PM Wed 76 76 SW 11 20 17356 17356 10231 White 23
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SW 7 14 16747 16747 9622 White 20
1 AM Thu 72 72 SSW 5 12 16542 16542 9417 White 19
2 AM Thu 70 70 S 4 9 16132 16132 9007 White 17
3 AM Thu 68 68 SSE 3 6 15716 15716 8591 White 15
4 AM Thu 67 67 SE 3 7 15509 15509 8384 White 14
5 AM Thu 66 66 SE 3 8 15301 15301 8176 White 13
6 AM Thu 65 65 SE 4 8 15094 15094 7969 White 12
7 AM Thu 68 69 SE 5 8 15923 15923 8798 White 16
8 AM Thu 70 72 SSE 6 9 16542 16542 9417 White 19
9 AM Thu 73 77 SSE 7 9 17559 17559 10434 White 24
10 AM Thu 76 82 S 10 12 18560 18560 11435 White 28
11 AM Thu 79 87 S 12 15 19577 19577 12452 White 33
12 Noon Thu 82 90 SSW 15 17 20160 20160 13035 White 36
1 PM Thu 84 91 SSW 17 19 20352 20352 13227 White 37
2 PM Thu 85 91 SSW 19 21 20352 20352 13227 White 37
3 PM Thu 87 91 SSW 21 24 20352 20352 13227 White 37
4 PM Thu 86 88 SSW 19 23 19771 19771 12646 White 34
5 PM Thu 85 86 SSW 18 22 19381 19381 12256 White 32
6 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 16 21 18991 18991 11866 White 30
7 PM Thu 82 82 SSW 14 20 18560 18560 11435 White 28
8 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 20 18162 18162 11037 White 27
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 11 19 17760 17760 10635 White 25
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 8 14 17559 17559 10434 White 24
11 PM Thu 76 76 WNW 5 9 17356 17356 10231 White 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]