Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NNW 5 5 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 5 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 NNE 10 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 10 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NNE 11 13 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 NNE 11 14 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 NNE 10 13 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 73 NE 8 10 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 72 77 ENE 5 9 12930 12228 5103 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 74 80 ENE 5 9 13922 12917 5792 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 75 81 E 6 8 14345 12985 5860 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 76 81 E 5 8 14345 12985 5860 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 76 80 SSE 5 9 13922 12917 5792 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 76 78 SSW 5 9 13050 12782 5657 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 8 10 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 74 74 W 6 9 12239 12068 4943 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 5 9 12077 7125 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 69 69 WNW 6 9 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 N 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 ENE 9 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NE 10 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 10 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 ESE 10 12 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 12 14 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 12 16 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 13 17 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 13 16 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 12 16 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 ESE 13 17 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 ESE 12 17 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 70 ESE 11 17 11955 7125 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 68 73 ESE 11 16 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 70 76 SE 10 13 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 72 78 SE 9 12 13050 12782 5657 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 73 78 SE 8 10 13050 12782 5657 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 74 77 SSE 8 10 12930 12228 5103 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 74 76 SSE 9 10 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 74 74 SSE 9 10 12239 12068 4943 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 73 73 SSE 9 10 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 71 71 SSE 8 9 12077 7125 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 8 9 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 SE 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 E 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 ENE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 ENE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 ENE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 E 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 SE 6 10 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 71 75 SSE 6 10 12795 12120 4995 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 72 76 S 8 11 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 73 77 SSW 8 12 12930 12228 5103 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 73 76 SW 9 13 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 73 75 SW 10 14 12795 12120 4995 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 73 74 WSW 10 14 12239 12068 4943 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 10 14 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 9 13 12077 7125 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 12 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 8 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 8 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NW 8 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NNE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NE 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 NNE 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 E 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 9 11955 7125 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 69 72 SSW 5 9 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 70 73 SW 5 9 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 71 75 SW 6 10 12795 12120 4995 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 8 11 12239 12068 4943 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 71 73 W 9 13 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 71 72 WNW 10 16 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 11 17 11955 7125 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 69 69 NW 10 16 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 67 N 9 14 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 N 8 12 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 N 6 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NNE 6 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NNE 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 NNE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 NE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 ENE 8 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 E 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 SSE 5 9 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 72 S 5 9 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 70 75 S 5 10 12795 12120 4995 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 71 76 SSW 5 10 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 72 77 SSW 6 11 12930 12228 5103 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 73 76 SW 8 12 12863 12171 5046 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 73 75 SW 9 12 12795 12120 4995 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 72 72 SW 10 12 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 10 12 12077 7125 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 69 69 S 9 11 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 SSE 8 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 SE 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 E 6 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 ENE 6 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 ENE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 ENE 6 6 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 E 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 E 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 67 ESE 5 8 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 S 5 9 11955 7125 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 72 SSW 6 9 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SSW 8 10 12239 12068 4943 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 69 73 SW 8 11 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 69 73 SW 9 12 12180 11897 4772 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 69 72 SW 10 13 12128 10164 3039 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 69 70 WSW 10 13 11955 7125 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 10 13 10971 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 10 12 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 11 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 10 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 8 9 5007 7125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]