Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 36 36 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 37 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 40 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 42 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 44 NE 15 6291 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 43 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 41 42 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 NE 17 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 37 37 NE 18 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 NE 18 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NE 20 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 NE 21 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 NE 21 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NE 21 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 21 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NE 20 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NE 20 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NE 20 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NE 18 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 18 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 NE 18 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 NE 17 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 NE 17 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 35 NE 16 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 38 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 38 40 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 43 NE 15 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 44 NE 15 6291 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 41 42 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 38 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 N 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 34 34 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 46 NE 10 6877 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 45 47 NE 10 7388 7125 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 46 48 NE 10 7886 7125 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 45 46 NE 10 6877 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 N 9 6291 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 N 9 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 NE 10 6877 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 E 10 8211 7125 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 49 51 E 9 8534 7869 744 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 50 52 E 9 8695 8204 1079 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 49 50 E 9 8373 7378 253 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 47 47 E 8 7388 7125 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 45 45 E 8 6578 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 NE 8 6291 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 NE 9 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 47 NE 9 7388 7125 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 47 49 NE 9 8211 7125 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 49 51 NE 10 8534 7869 744 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 50 52 NE 10 8695 8204 1079 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 49 50 NE 10 8373 7378 253 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 7886 7125 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 46 46 N 9 6877 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 N 9 6578 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 NE 13 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 NE 10 6578 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 48 NE 10 7886 7125 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 48 50 E 10 8373 7378 253 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 50 52 E 12 8695 8204 1079 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 51 53 E 12 8856 8364 1239 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 50 51 E 10 8534 7869 744 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 49 49 E 10 8211 7125 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 47 47 NE 9 7388 7125 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 46 46 NE 9 6877 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 NE 10 6578 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NE 12 6291 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NE 12 6076 7125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]