Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 SSE 2 5 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 S 2 5 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SSW 2 5 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 SW 2 5 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 SW 2 4 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SW 2 4 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SW 2 4 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SW 2 4 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 WSW 2 3 5597 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 73 WSW 2 3 7260 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 77 WSW 3 4 10332 7963 2063 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 79 80 WSW 3 6 11798 10257 4357 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 81 82 WSW 4 7 12400 10962 5062 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 82 83 WSW 6 9 12876 11761 5861 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 83 84 W 8 11 13341 11941 6041 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 83 84 W 11 13 13341 11941 6041 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 83 83 W 11 15 12876 11761 5861 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 82 82 W 11 17 12400 10962 5062 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 11 18 12400 10962 5062 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 9 15 11798 10257 4357 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 7 12 11013 9668 3768 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 77 77 NW 5 8 10332 7963 2063 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 4 7 10332 7963 2063 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 76 76 SSW 4 6 9784 7227 1327 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 SE 3 5 8720 6445 545 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 SSE 3 5 8011 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 S 3 5 7260 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 SW 3 5 6460 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 3 5 5597 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 W 3 6 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 6 4967 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 NW 3 5 5597 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 4 6460 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 74 NNW 2 3 8011 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 77 NW 2 3 10332 7963 2063 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 79 80 WNW 2 3 11798 10257 4357 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 82 83 W 2 2 12876 11761 5861 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 84 87 W 4 5 14287 13232 7332 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 86 91 W 7 8 16201 15016 9116 White 15
3 PM Thu 88 94 W 9 11 16818 16818 10918 White 18
4 PM Thu 87 91 W 11 13 16201 15016 9116 White 15
5 PM Thu 87 89 W 13 16 15790 13795 7895 White 13
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 15 19 14287 13232 7332 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 13 19 13644 12301 6401 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 82 82 W 12 19 12400 10962 5062 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 80 80 W 11 20 11798 10257 4357 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 78 78 W 9 17 10690 8659 2759 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 77 77 W 7 14 10332 7963 2063 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 5 12 8720 6445 545 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 5 11 8011 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 73 WNW 4 9 7260 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 WNW 4 8 7260 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 WNW 4 8 6460 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 72 72 WNW 4 8 6460 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 NW 4 8 5597 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 74 SSW 3 6 8011 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 78 ESE 2 4 10690 8659 2759 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 79 83 N 2 2 12876 11761 5861 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 81 87 E 2 2 14287 13232 7332 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 83 91 S 1 2 16201 15016 9116 White 15
12 Noon Fri 85 94 W 1 1 16818 16818 10918 White 18
1 PM Fri 88 97 W 4 4 17431 17431 11531 White 21
2 PM Fri 90 98 W 6 8 17634 17634 11734 White 22
3 PM Fri 92 98 W 9 11 17634 17634 11734 White 22
4 PM Fri 92 96 WNW 11 13 17226 17226 11326 White 20
5 PM Fri 91 93 WNW 13 16 16613 16613 10713 White 17
6 PM Fri 91 91 WNW 16 18 16201 15016 9116 White 15
7 PM Fri 89 89 WNW 13 17 15790 13795 7895 White 13
8 PM Fri 86 86 WNW 10 16 13846 12772 6872 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 84 84 WNW 7 15 13341 11941 6041 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 82 82 WNW 7 14 12400 10962 5062 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 79 79 WNW 7 14 11013 9668 3768 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]