Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 WNW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 WNW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 ENE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 ENE 6 10 11677 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 83 ENE 9 13 12321 12076 6176 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 82 88 ENE 10 16 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 84 91 ENE 9 13 14586 13391 7491 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 85 91 ENE 8 12 14586 13391 7491 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 86 91 E 6 10 14586 13391 7491 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 84 88 ENE 6 10 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 84 86 ENE 8 12 12936 12233 6333 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 82 82 NE 8 12 12188 11955 6055 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 77 77 ENE 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 ENE 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 E 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 E 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 ESE 11 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 ESE 11 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 11 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 E 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 E 11 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 E 12 19 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 E 13 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 81 E 13 20 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 80 85 E 13 20 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 82 87 E 13 20 13075 12786 6886 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 83 88 E 13 20 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 84 88 E 12 19 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 83 86 E 11 17 12936 12233 6333 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 82 83 ESE 10 16 12321 12076 6176 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 81 81 ESE 9 13 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 76 76 ESE 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 ESE 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 ESE 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 ESE 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SE 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 SE 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SE 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 SE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 SE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 SE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 75 SE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 78 SE 4 6 11677 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 82 SE 4 6 12188 11955 6055 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 81 84 SE 4 6 12802 12126 6226 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 82 85 S 5 9 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 83 85 S 6 10 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 82 83 SSW 9 13 12321 12076 6176 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 11 17 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 80 80 WSW 12 19 12087 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 SW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 SW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 SSW 2 3 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 3 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 SSE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 S 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 79 SW 3 5 12031 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 78 83 W 3 5 12321 12076 6176 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 80 85 W 3 5 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 80 84 WNW 5 9 12802 12126 6226 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 81 84 WNW 6 10 12802 12126 6226 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 80 82 WNW 9 13 12188 11955 6055 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 80 81 W 10 16 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 16 11677 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NNW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 E 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 E 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 E 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 E 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 81 ESE 5 9 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 79 84 ESE 5 9 12802 12126 6226 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 82 88 E 5 9 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 82 87 NNE 6 10 13075 12786 6886 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 83 87 N 6 10 13075 12786 6886 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 82 85 N 6 10 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 82 83 N 6 10 12321 12076 6176 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 80 80 N 6 10 12087 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 76 76 NW 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 SW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 S 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 NNW 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 2 3 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 3 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 ESE 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 ENE 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 E 5 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 81 SE 4 6 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 81 85 SSE 4 6 12869 12177 6277 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 83 88 S 5 9 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 84 89 SW 8 12 13924 12919 7019 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 84 88 WSW 9 13 13504 12853 6953 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 83 86 W 10 16 12936 12233 6333 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 83 84 W 10 16 12802 12126 6226 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 81 81 WNW 10 16 12137 11307 5407 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 SW 4 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]