Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 3 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 3 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 S 3 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 59 S 3 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 65 SW 3 8771 7853 1953 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 66 70 SW 5 9857 9030 3130 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 69 74 W 6 10808 10160 4260 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 72 77 W 7 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 73 77 W 8 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 74 76 W 8 11111 10629 4729 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 74 75 W 9 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 10656 9803 3903 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 12 10218 9166 3266 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 8590 5971 71 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 64 W 7 8590 5971 71 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 65 69 W 9 9492 8894 2994 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 68 73 W 14 10656 9803 3903 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 71 76 W 16 11111 10629 4729 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 73 77 W 16 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 73 75 W 17 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 74 75 W 17 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 73 73 W 16 10656 9803 3903 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 70 70 NW 15 9857 9030 3130 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 13 8278 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 S 5 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 5 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 SE 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SE 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 58 SE 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 65 E 10 8771 7853 1953 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 66 70 E 10 9857 9030 3130 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 70 75 E 10 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 78 E 10 11795 10931 5031 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 74 78 NE 9 11795 10931 5031 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 75 77 NE 9 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 76 77 NE 8 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 75 75 NE 7 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 72 72 W 7 10504 9442 3542 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 6 8771 7853 1953 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 5090 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 61 SE 7 6010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 68 SE 7 9184 8750 2850 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 69 73 E 8 10656 9803 3903 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 72 77 E 8 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 75 80 E 8 12460 11232 5332 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 77 81 E 8 12634 11684 5784 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 78 80 NE 8 12460 11232 5332 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 78 79 NE 8 12223 11082 5182 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 77 77 N 8 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 75 75 N 7 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 9047 8570 2670 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 7886 5900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 SW 5 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 63 SW 3 8278 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 66 69 SW 3 9492 8894 2994 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 70 74 SW 3 10808 10160 4260 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 74 79 SW 3 12223 11082 5182 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 76 81 SW 5 12634 11684 5784 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 78 82 W 6 13400 12126 6226 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 79 81 W 7 12634 11684 5784 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 79 80 W 8 12460 11232 5332 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 11795 10931 5031 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 11111 10629 4729 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 12 9184 8750 2850 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 8278 5900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 10 5090 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 6 7886 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 64 67 SW 6 9047 8570 2670 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 68 72 SW 6 10504 9442 3542 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 71 76 W 6 11111 10629 4729 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 74 79 W 7 12223 11082 5182 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 75 79 W 8 12223 11082 5182 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 76 78 W 9 11795 10931 5031 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 76 77 W 10 11262 10780 4880 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 75 75 W 12 10959 10478 4578 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 72 72 NW 12 10504 9442 3542 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 13 8771 7853 1953 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 5090 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 9 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 S 8 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 4885 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]