Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 SW 8 17 2784 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 72 72 SW 7 15 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 70 70 SW 6 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 SW 6 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 SSW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 SSW 5 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 SW 5 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 74 SW 6 8 2893 2564 1148 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 74 78 SW 7 8 4559 3283 1867 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 78 84 SW 8 9 10365 6839 5423 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 82 89 SW 9 10 14465 12272 10856 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 86 94 SW 10 11 16230 15599 14183 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 89 97 WSW 11 13 18004 16154 14738 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 91 98 WSW 12 14 18533 16309 14893 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 94 99 WSW 13 15 18823 16467 15051 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 93 96 WSW 13 15 16789 16045 14629 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 91 92 WSW 14 16 15990 14142 12726 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 90 90 WSW 14 16 15309 13186 11770 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 88 88 SW 16 22 13940 11231 9815 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 86 86 SW 17 27 12618 9431 8015 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 84 84 SSW 19 32 10365 6839 5423 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 82 82 SSW 16 29 8765 4914 3498 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 79 79 SSW 14 26 4945 3703 2287 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SSW 11 23 4147 2889 1473 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 76 76 SSW 9 19 3729 2781 1365 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 14 2893 2564 1148 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 72 72 SW 4 10 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 71 71 SSW 4 10 2566 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 71 71 SSE 4 9 2566 2470 1054 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 70 70 SE 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 73 SE 5 8 2784 2470 1054 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 76 78 SSE 6 8 4559 3283 1867 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 79 83 SSE 6 8 9602 5222 3806 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 83 89 S 8 10 14465 12272 10856 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 88 96 S 11 12 16789 16045 14629 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 92 101 SSW 13 15 20897 18306 16890 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 94 103 SSW 16 18 21929 18936 17520 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 96 104 SSW 19 22 22022 20392 18976 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 98 104 SSW 22 25 22022 20392 18976 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 97 101 SSW 22 25 20897 18306 16890 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 96 98 SSW 22 25 18533 16309 14893 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 95 95 SW 22 26 16390 15936 14520 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 94 94 SSW 19 25 16230 15599 14183 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 93 93 SSW 17 25 16099 14949 13533 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 92 92 SSW 14 25 15990 14142 12726 Blue 22
10 PM Wed 86 86 SSW 11 21 12618 9431 8015 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 81 81 SSW 9 17 7165 4524 3108 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 6 14 3303 2672 1256 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 74 74 S 7 14 2893 2564 1148 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 73 73 SSW 7 15 2784 2470 1054 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 72 72 SSW 7 15 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 71 71 SSW 6 14 2566 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 6 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 SSW 5 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 SSW 5 9 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 74 76 S 6 8 3729 2781 1365 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 77 81 S 6 7 7165 4524 3108 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 81 87 S 9 11 13525 10086 8670 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 85 92 S 13 15 15990 14142 12726 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 89 97 SSW 16 19 18004 16154 14738 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 90 97 SSW 15 18 18004 16154 14738 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 91 96 SSW 15 17 16789 16045 14629 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 92 96 SSW 14 17 16789 16045 14629 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 91 93 SSW 15 18 16099 14949 13533 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 90 91 SW 17 19 15861 13797 12381 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 90 90 SW 18 21 15309 13186 11770 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 16 20 13525 10086 8670 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 15 20 10365 6839 5423 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 82 82 SSW 13 19 8765 4914 3498 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 19 5256 4117 2701 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 13 19 4147 2889 1473 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]