Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 60 60 NW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NW 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 N 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 N 2 2634 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 70 74 W 2 2888 2713 1297 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 75 80 SW 2 3848 3356 1940 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 78 83 SW 3 4991 3833 2417 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 82 86 W 6 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 83 85 W 7 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 84 85 W 8 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 84 84 W 8 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 8 4991 3833 2417 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 8 3848 3356 1940 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 7 3368 2878 1462 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 75 75 SW 6 3048 2753 1337 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 73 73 SW 6 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 2715 2567 1151 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 7 2634 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 6 2572 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 66 66 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 W 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 N 5 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 72 76 N 5 3208 2793 1377 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 76 81 N 5 4030 3515 2099 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 80 85 N 6 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 82 86 NW 7 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 84 86 NW 7 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 85 86 NW 8 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 85 85 NW 9 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 10 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 81 81 NW 10 4030 3515 2099 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 78 78 NW 12 3528 3037 1621 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 75 75 NW 12 3048 2753 1337 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 12 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 72 72 NW 12 2755 2632 1216 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NW 10 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 68 68 N 10 2572 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 NE 9 2634 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 71 75 NE 10 3048 2753 1337 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 76 81 NE 12 4030 3515 2099 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 79 84 NE 12 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 82 86 N 10 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 83 85 N 9 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 84 85 N 9 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 85 85 N 8 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 84 84 N 7 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 82 82 N 7 4638 3674 2258 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 79 79 N 7 3688 3197 1781 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 76 76 N 7 3208 2793 1377 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 74 74 N 7 2888 2713 1297 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 72 72 N 7 2755 2632 1216 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 N 8 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 68 68 N 8 2572 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 66 66 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 NE 10 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 75 79 NE 10 3688 3197 1781 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 79 84 NE 12 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 82 87 NE 10 8352 5181 3765 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 85 89 N 9 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 87 89 N 9 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 88 89 N 8 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 89 89 N 7 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 88 88 NW 6 8613 6365 4949 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 85 85 NW 6 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 82 82 NW 6 4638 3674 2258 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 78 78 NW 7 3528 3037 1621 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 76 76 NW 7 3208 2793 1377 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 2888 2713 1297 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NW 8 2755 2632 1216 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 70 70 NW 7 2675 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 68 68 NW 7 2572 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 73 N 5 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 75 79 NE 3 3688 3197 1781 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 79 84 NE 3 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 82 87 N 3 8352 5181 3765 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 85 89 N 5 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 87 89 N 5 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 88 89 NW 6 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 89 89 NW 6 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 88 88 W 7 8613 6365 4949 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 7 6807 4569 3153 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 4638 3674 2258 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 6 3528 3037 1621 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 6 3208 2793 1377 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 2888 2713 1297 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 W 6 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 71 71 W 6 2715 2567 1151 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 6 2634 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 73 N 3 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 75 79 N 3 3688 3197 1781 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 79 84 N 5 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 82 87 N 5 8352 5181 3765 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 85 89 N 6 8783 7904 6488 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 86 88 N 6 8613 6365 4949 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 87 88 N 7 8613 6365 4949 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 87 87 NW 8 8352 5181 3765 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 86 86 NW 8 7988 4963 3547 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 84 84 NW 9 5211 3992 2576 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 80 80 NW 9 3848 3356 1940 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 77 77 N 10 3368 2878 1462 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 75 75 N 10 3048 2753 1337 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 73 73 N 10 2795 2672 1256 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 N 10 2715 2567 1151 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 10 2634 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]