Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 10 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 13 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 61 63 NE 14 3283 3139 1723 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 63 65 NE 14 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 66 68 NE 13 3900 3375 1959 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 67 69 NE 12 4368 3531 2115 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 67 68 NE 9 3900 3375 1959 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 67 67 NE 8 3699 3327 1911 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 64 64 NE 7 3330 3186 1770 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 61 61 NE 9 3189 3046 1630 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 13 3096 2911 1495 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 15 3049 2843 1427 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 16 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 56 56 NE 16 2915 2715 1299 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 54 54 NE 16 2779 2638 1222 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 16 2779 2638 1222 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 53 53 NE 17 2717 2609 1193 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 52 52 NE 17 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 51 51 NE 17 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 17 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 16 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 15 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 47 47 NE 14 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 14 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 52 52 NE 16 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 56 57 NE 18 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 59 61 NE 20 3189 3046 1630 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 62 65 NE 20 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 63 65 NE 18 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 64 66 NE 16 3543 3280 1864 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 64 65 NE 13 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 63 63 NE 9 3283 3139 1723 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 61 61 NE 7 3189 3046 1630 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 6 3096 2911 1495 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 56 56 N 6 2915 2715 1299 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 2779 2638 1222 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 52 52 N 6 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 50 50 N 5 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 5 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 N 5 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 NE 7 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 55 57 NE 7 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 59 62 NE 7 3236 3093 1677 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 62 65 NE 6 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 64 66 NE 6 3543 3280 1864 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 64 65 NE 6 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 3330 3186 1770 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 3236 3093 1677 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 60 60 NE 5 3143 2979 1563 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 3049 2843 1427 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 2847 2676 1260 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 3 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NE 5 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 54 55 NE 7 2847 2676 1260 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 59 61 NE 7 3189 3046 1630 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 63 65 NE 7 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 66 68 NE 8 3900 3375 1959 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 68 70 NE 8 4826 3686 2270 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 68 69 NE 8 4368 3531 2115 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 67 67 NE 7 3699 3327 1911 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 65 65 NE 6 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 63 63 NE 6 3283 3139 1723 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 3143 2979 1563 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 57 57 N 5 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 5 2847 2676 1260 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 2717 2609 1193 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 5 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 6 2581 2494 1078 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 6 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 6 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 56 57 NE 7 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 61 63 NE 7 3283 3139 1723 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 65 67 NE 7 3699 3327 1911 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 68 70 NE 7 4826 3686 2270 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 70 72 NE 7 5071 4319 2903 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 70 71 NE 6 4990 3857 2441 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 68 68 NE 6 3900 3375 1959 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 66 66 NE 5 3543 3280 1864 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 64 64 NE 5 3330 3186 1770 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 61 61 N 3 3189 3046 1630 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 3 3096 2911 1495 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 3 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 2847 2676 1260 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2717 2609 1193 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 3 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 2581 2494 1078 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 5 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 2524 2470 1054 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 2495 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 56 57 NE 7 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 61 63 NE 7 3283 3139 1723 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 65 67 NE 7 3699 3327 1911 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 68 70 NE 7 4826 3686 2270 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 70 72 NE 7 5071 4319 2903 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 70 71 NE 6 4990 3857 2441 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 69 69 NE 6 4368 3531 2115 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 67 67 NE 5 3699 3327 1911 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 65 65 NE 3 3387 3233 1817 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 3236 3093 1677 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 3 3096 2911 1495 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 3 2983 2776 1360 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 2847 2676 1260 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 54 54 NE 5 2779 2638 1222 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 6 2678 2580 1164 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 6 2640 2551 1135 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 7 2610 2523 1107 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 2581 2494 1078 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 2553 2470 1054 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]