Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 WSW 3 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 80 80 WSW 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 78 78 SW 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 77 77 SW 2 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 76 76 S 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 NE 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 NNE 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 NNE 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 79 NE 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 83 85 ENE 2 4 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 88 92 E 2 4 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 92 97 SE 2 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 95 101 S 2 6 1412 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 97 103 SSW 3 8 1900 1900 484 White 0
2 PM Tue 99 104 SW 2 9 2143 2143 727 White 0
3 PM Tue 99 103 WSW 3 10 1900 1900 484 White 0
4 PM Tue 100 102 W 3 11 1656 1656 240 White 0
5 PM Tue 99 100 W 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 97 97 W 3 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 93 93 W 2 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 91 91 W 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 89 89 W 2 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 87 87 WNW 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 85 85 NW 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 N 3 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 82 82 NNE 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 NE 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 79 79 NE 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 NNE 5 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 NE 5 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 NNE 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 NNE 6 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 83 83 ENE 9 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 87 89 ENE 10 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 91 95 ENE 10 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 94 99 E 10 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 97 103 E 9 13 1900 1900 484 White 0
1 PM Wed 99 105 E 8 12 2385 2385 969 White 0
2 PM Wed 101 106 E 6 11 2621 2621 1205 White 7
3 PM Wed 102 106 E 6 11 2621 2621 1205 White 7
4 PM Wed 102 104 ENE 5 12 2143 2143 727 White 0
5 PM Wed 101 102 ENE 5 12 1656 1656 240 White 0
6 PM Wed 99 99 NE 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 96 96 N 3 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 93 93 NNW 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 91 91 NNW 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 90 90 NNW 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 88 88 NNW 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 N 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 85 85 N 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 83 83 N 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 81 81 NNE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 80 80 NE 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 79 79 NE 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 79 79 ENE 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 81 81 E 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 83 83 E 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 86 87 ESE 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 89 91 SE 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 92 95 SSE 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 95 99 S 4 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 97 101 SSW 5 13 1412 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 98 101 SW 5 14 1412 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 99 101 SW 6 16 1412 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 98 99 SW 8 17 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 97 97 SW 8 18 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 8 18 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 92 92 SW 6 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 6 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 6 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 87 87 SW 6 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 86 86 SW 6 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 SW 5 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 83 83 WSW 5 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 81 81 W 4 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 79 79 WNW 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 3 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 ENE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 79 79 E 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 80 80 E 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 82 82 E 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 85 SE 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 89 S 4 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 90 94 SW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 92 97 SW 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 95 100 WSW 4 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 96 101 WSW 4 13 1412 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 97 100 W 4 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 97 99 W 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 96 96 W 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 91 91 WNW 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 88 88 WNW 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 86 86 NW 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 84 84 NW 5 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 83 83 NW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 NNW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 80 80 NNE 4 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 79 79 NE 4 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 77 77 NE 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 NE 3 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 NE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 ENE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 77 ENE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 79 ENE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 82 83 ENE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 85 88 E 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 88 92 E 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 91 96 ESE 3 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 94 100 S 3 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 96 101 SSW 3 9 1412 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 97 100 SW 3 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 97 99 WSW 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 96 96 WSW 4 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 94 94 WSW 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 92 92 W 3 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 90 90 W 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 88 88 W 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 87 87 WSW 4 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 85 85 WSW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 84 84 WSW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 82 82 WSW 5 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 81 81 WSW 4 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 79 79 SW 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 S 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SE 2 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 77 77 SE 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 78 78 E 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 80 E 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 83 85 E 2 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 86 89 ESE 3 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 89 93 SE 3 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 92 97 SSE 3 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 94 100 S 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 95 100 SSW 4 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 96 100 SSW 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 96 98 SW 6 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 96 96 SW 6 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 94 94 SW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 92 92 SW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 90 90 SW 5 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 88 88 SW 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 87 87 SW 5 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]