NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

 KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

 30 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WSW 23 9575 WSW 18 8553 W 11 7877 W 10 9168 W 11 10183 W 11 10587
Oatman Mt SSW 19 4577 WSW 16 3291 SW 14 3938 SW 10 4364 WSW 12 5628 WSW 13 6253
Shaw Butte WSW 14 4523 SW 14 3248 WSW 10 3248 WSW 10 4102 WSW 11 5150 SW 10 5774
The Y SSW 18 8241 S 17 5502 SSW 13 7466 SW 12 8241 WSW 13 10235 SSW 12 10436
Phoenix Regional SW 16 5732 WSW 17 4466 W 10 4038 W 10 4892 WNW 10 5941 WNW 10 6565
Humbolt SW 16 8691 SSW 16 6316 SSW 10 7195 SW 11 7718 SW 12 9460 SW 11 10277
Miller Canyon SW 20 9555 SW 25 8932 SW 18 8092 W 12 8932 W 12 9762 SE 13 10379
Box Canyon SSW 20 10705 SW 25 9699 WSW 19 8643 WNW 13 9699 NW 13 10705 NW 14 11103
Mustang Mountain SSW 19 10270 SW 26 9455 WSW 19 7929 W 13 9455 WNW 13 10270 S 14 10872
Whetstone Mountain SW 21 11358 SW 27 10483 WSW 19 7737 WNW 14 10483 WNW 14 12083 S 14 12881
Mt Lemmon SW 23 8318 SW 28 7467 W 17 4790 W 13 7174 W 13 8528 W 13 9157
A Mountain WSW 19 11300 WSW 19 10501 W 14 9687 WNW 12 10501 WNW 12 11498 WNW 13 12094
Rainbow Valley SW 14 5020 WSW 13 3527 W 10 3746 W 10 4384 W 11 5649 W 11 6064
Pinal Peak WSW 19 8425 SW 25 5310 WSW 18 4521 W 16 5976 W 16 8835 WSW 16 8932
Harquahala S 23 6541 SSE 18 3315 S 14 4887 SSW 11 6541 WSW 13 8507 SSW 13 9121
El Tiro Gliderport SW 20 9555 SW 24 8741 SSE 7 7912
Mt Ord SW 19 8865 SSW 24 5970 SW 13 5970 WSW 13 7227 WSW 13 9280 SW 14 10099

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]