NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 8 3949 NE 10 3184 NE 7 5662 W 7 5662 NE 12 5189 E 16 2398
Oatman Mt NW 8 3611 NE 12 3611 NE 9 6356 NW 6 6356 NE 12 5124 NE 16 2393
Shaw Butte W 7 3073 NE 9 3073 NE 3 5928 NE 2 6175 NE 8 4593 NE 8 1729
The Y NW 14 4047 NE 15 4245 NE 10 5183 W 12 5183 NE 13 3691 NE 13 3113
Phoenix Regional W 8 3876 NE 7 4634 NE 6 6767 NW 6 7002 N 12 6533 E 13 3180
Humbolt NW 13 3034 N 15 3369 N 13 4386 SW 10 4386 N 17 2841 NE 15 2504
Miller Canyon SW 13 2441 S 7 2877 E 6 3745 W 14 4641 NW 14 2649 SE 20 1453
Box Canyon NW 14 4301 NW 10 5167 SE 10 8002 W 9 8344 N 12 6014 E 21 3690
Mustang Mountain W 16 4149 NW 10 4572 E 12 5350 W 10 6994 N 10 4351 E 17 3396
Whetstone Mountain NW 16 3880 NW 9 4066 E 9 4702 W 13 4985 NW 14 4066 E 20 2766
Mt Lemmon NW 14 701 NW 8 1105 E 8 3178 W 15 3178 NW 16 1337 W 22 0
A Mountain NW 13 6161 NW 12 6548 NW 8 7273 NW 8 7273 N 10 6741 E 17 5419
Rainbow Valley W 9 4197 NE 8 4943 NE 6 6972 W 6 6972 NE 8 6764 E 12 3473
Pinal Peak W 15 1040 NE 9 1730 NE 18 2291 W 18 2481 N 17 1529 E 28 0
Harquahala NW 17 962 N 20 1801 NW 14 2681 NW 15 2681 N 17 1801 NE 18 0
El Tiro Gliderport NW 10 5865 N 9 5865 N 8 7161 NW 7 7161 N 12 6366 E 13 4903

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]