NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain ENE 5 9096 ESE 11 9096 E 6 3100 NNW 6 0 E 5 3100 ESE 6 0
Oatman Mt W 4 727 ENE 10 1205 SW 8 0 SW 5 0 WSW 4 0 SW 6 0
Shaw Butte W 5 441 E 10 441 WSW 8 0 SSW 5 0 ENE 3 0 SSW 5 0
The Y SSW 12 7970 SSE 14 7970 SSW 14 7291 SW 14 7242 SW 13 7242 SSW 14 7142
Phoenix Regional NNW 6 1461 E 14 2122 W 15 2342
Humbolt N 6 7684 N 6 7132 SSW 5 6975 WNW 8 0 SSW 5 7025 SSW 6 0
Miller Canyon NE 9 5810 E 11 4626 WNW 11 4517 WNW 9 4569 WNW 8 5181 W 9 5317
Box Canyon NNE 8 8345 ESE 16 7246 SSW 6 6661 WNW 8 6661 N 9 6823 W 9 7661
Mustang Mountain ENE 10 7491 E 13 6953 WSW 12 6277 W 10 6277 NNE 6 6953 W 10 7019
Whetstone Mountain NE 6 9068 ESE 11 8832 W 21 6943
Mt Lemmon N 9 4719 ESE 12 3837 SSW 11 3073 WSW 9 3630 ESE 9 3699 SE 8 3768
A Mountain NW 5 9674 ESE 13 9674 S 10 9034 S 9 9331 NE 9 9380 SSE 6 9429
Rainbow Valley ESE 3 26 E 11 42 WSW 6 26 WNW 5 26 E 4 26 WSW 5 26
Pinal Peak N 4 7980 E 8 7980 W 15 9083
Harquahala ESE 6 6433 ESE 13 6433 SSW 10 4525 SW 9 0 SSW 9 4525 S 11 0
El Tiro Gliderport N 6 7507 ESE 11 7720 WSW 6 370 SSW 8 370 N 6 7080 WNW 8 7294
Mt Ord NNE 11 5860 ESE 13 5657 SW 10 5103 WNW 11 4995 SW 10 5103 SW 10 4943

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]