NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 8 10734 W 9 11733 WSW 15 11335
Oatman Mt SW 8 8125 SW 11 8770 SW 13 8339
Shaw Butte W 8 4758 ESE 5 4969 WSW 8 5178 WSW 6 4758 W 6 3489 SW 5 2622
The Y W 13 9176 WNW 14 9992 SW 12 9788 S 14 8971 SSW 14 7935 SSW 13 6505
Phoenix Regional NW 6 5352 WNW 6 5985 WNW 8 5985 W 8 5564 WSW 8 4082 WSW 8 3201
Humbolt WSW 13 10718 WSW 13 11322 WSW 15 11522
Miller Canyon NE 6 5675 N 10 5892 N 10 6324 E 8 5675 SSW 9 4736 WNW 8 2023
Box Canyon N 11 7512 NNW 11 7928 NW 11 8341 ENE 8 7721 W 10 6885 W 5 5102
Mustang Mountain NNE 11 7154 NNW 10 7574 NNW 12 7991 E 9 7364 W 9 6732 WNW 11 3881
Whetstone Mountain NE 8 6949 NNW 11 7588 NNW 12 7799 ESE 9 7164 NNE 8 6211 WNW 13 3425
Mt Lemmon N 6 4850 WNW 9 5284 NW 9 5500 SE 5 5067 WNW 9 4192 WNW 8 1342
A Mountain NW 9 9108 NNW 12 9931 NW 15 9931
Rainbow Valley WNW 6 5071 W 6 5702 W 8 5702 W 8 5071 SW 8 4015 WSW 6 3126
Pinal Peak N 9 5528 WNW 12 5737 W 13 6987 SSW 11 6157 W 11 5104 W 11 2694
Harquahala WNW 8 7668 WNW 10 8288 W 10 8288 S 10 7668 S 11 5963 S 10 3899
El Tiro Gliderport NW 12 6682 NNW 13 7535 NW 15 7752
Mt Ord WSW 13 11208 WSW 13 11805 WSW 15 12004

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]