NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 10 10094 NNW 34 9274 WSW 10 9480 WSW 13 9480 WSW 10 8862 WSW 9 8655
Oatman Mt W 18 4263 WSW 11 3837 SW 12 4688 SW 13 4050 SW 10 3621 SW 9 2956
Shaw Butte NW 11 4039 WNW 26 3613 WSW 8 3613 WSW 10 3613 WSW 6 3186 W 6 2528
The Y W 13 11634 W 13 11028 WSW 14 11835 SW 17 11028 SSW 14 10484 SSW 11 9859
Phoenix Regional SSW 17 4820 NNW 24 4181 W 8 3967 W 10 4181 SW 6 3967 W 6 3307
Humbolt NW 23 11470 ENE 18 10114 SSW 9 10781 SW 11 10781 SW 8 9591 SW 8 9591
Miller Canyon NE 6 8122 SE 5 7723 WSW 6 5658 NNW 6 4078 SSW 5 4078 SW 5 5658
Box Canyon NNW 9 10155 NW 9 9719 WNW 9 8544 WNW 11 8105 NW 9 8544 NW 9 8544
Mustang Mountain W 5 11320 W 13 11523 W 7 9966
Whetstone Mountain N 8 8655 NW 9 7715 WNW 10 3263 NW 11 1827 WNW 9 3263 WNW 10 5330
Mt Lemmon NE 9 6173 NE 10 5575 NNE 10 4968 W 10 4072 W 10 4968 W 10 4968
A Mountain NW 8 9931 WNW 6 9727 WNW 6 9521 W 9 8137 WNW 6 8137 WNW 6 9521
Rainbow Valley W 10 3969 W 10 3529 W 8 3749 WSW 10 3749 W 8 3308 WSW 6 3088
Pinal Peak WNW 11 9017 N 16 6882 W 10 5397 W 13 4836 WSW 11 5397 W 11 5397
Harquahala WSW 17 10138 WNW 12 9329 W 14 10558 SW 16 9938 SSW 13 7431 SSW 11 6878
El Tiro Gliderport WNW 23 7948 NE 8 7733 W 8 7519 W 9 7519 W 6 7519 WNW 6 7305
Mt Ord WNW 12 10297 NNW 16 8585 SW 11 8585 WSW 13 9472 SW 12 9472 WSW 11 8170

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]