NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WNW 10 10449 ESE 17 13019 E 24 10964 WNW 12 10173 WSW 13 10684 WSW 14 11447
Oatman Mt SW 9 8837 WSW 10 12571 E 16 13016 WSW 12 10875 WSW 13 11616 WSW 12 12094
Shaw Butte SSE 6 10249 SSE 11 12408 E 16 11158 WNW 9 10699 WSW 8 10939 WSW 9 11474
The Y S 13 8392 SSE 17 11618 ESE 23 10343 E 13 8495 WSW 11 9709 WSW 11 10813
Phoenix Regional S 7 8089 SE 24 12770 E 24 12097
Humbolt S 10 9382 E 14 12292 ENE 20 8900 N 9 8900 SW 8 9382 WSW 11 10535
Miller Canyon S 9 9918 E 28 9500 ESE 34 5684 E 9 5684 WNW 6 7099 W 6 8218
Box Canyon S 10 12177 ESE 24 12377 ESE 25 9064 E 10 7408 NNW 10 9530 NW 11 10355
Mustang Mountain SSW 10 12054 ESE 26 11854 ESE 25 7640 E 9 7361 N 8 8642 WNW 9 9276
Whetstone Mountain SW 8 11720 ESE 30 12126 ESE 20 11515
Mt Lemmon W 11 8512 ESE 31 8299 ESE 40 4548 E 13 4548 NW 10 5648 WNW 11 7158
A Mountain W 8 12794 ESE 20 13525 ESE 17 10610 E 5 10239 NW 6 10610 NW 6 11202
Rainbow Valley W 6 10850 SSW 10 14090 E 19 12559 E 9 11336 WSW 9 11995 W 10 12559
Pinal Peak WSW 13 7873 ESE 26 6198 E 27 4817 E 16 5664 NW 13 5664 W 13 6672
Harquahala S 11 12467 SE 17 14091 SE 25 14287
El Tiro Gliderport W 8 12153 ESE 18 13702 ESE 23 11325 ESE 5 10464 WNW 5 11080 WNW 6 11723
Mt Ord SSW 16 9007 E 24 9483 E 27 7491 ENE 14 7491 NW 13 8158 W 16 9483

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]