Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.991, -111.919, 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 S 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 80 80 SSW 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 79 79 SW 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 79 79 SW 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 78 78 SW 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 77 77 WSW 2 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 WNW 2 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 NNW 2 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 NNE 2 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 84 86 ESE 0 0 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 87 91 NE 0 0 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 95 101 NE 2 2 1807 1807 507 White 0
12 Noon Tue 98 104 NE 2 3 2537 2537 1237 White 4
1 PM Tue 99 105 NNE 3 3 2761 2761 1461 White 8
2 PM Tue 100 105 N 4 4 2761 2761 1461 White 8
3 PM Tue 101 105 NNW 4 5 2761 2761 1461 White 8
4 PM Tue 100 102 NNW 5 6 2051 2051 751 White 0
5 PM Tue 100 100 NNW 6 6 1563 1563 263 White 0
6 PM Tue 98 98 NNW 5 6 1290 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 93 93 NW 5 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 5 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 87 87 WNW 6 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 86 86 WNW 5 11 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 84 84 NW 4 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 NNW 4 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 82 82 NNE 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 81 81 NE 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 E 2 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 80 80 SE 3 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 79 79 ESE 2 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 79 79 ENE 4 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 ENE 6 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 80 E 7 16 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 86 E 11 16 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 88 92 E 13 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 97 102 E 14 16 2051 2051 751 White 0
12 Noon Wed 100 106 E 12 14 2981 2981 1681 White 9
1 PM Wed 102 108 ESE 10 11 3422 3422 2122 White 11
2 PM Wed 103 108 ESE 8 9 3422 3422 2122 White 11
3 PM Wed 104 108 E 6 7 3422 3422 2122 White 11
4 PM Wed 103 105 ENE 5 5 2761 2761 1461 White 8
5 PM Wed 102 102 NE 4 5 2051 2051 751 White 0
6 PM Wed 101 101 NNE 4 5 1807 1807 507 White 0
7 PM Wed 95 95 NNE 5 9 1290 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 91 91 NNE 5 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 90 90 NE 5 11 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 89 89 ENE 5 11 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 88 88 ENE 6 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 E 4 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 83 83 SE 2 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 82 82 ESE 1 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 82 82 E 3 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 82 82 ESE 4 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 81 81 SE 5 11 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 81 81 SE 4 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 80 80 SE 6 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 82 SE 6 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 86 88 SSE 4 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 89 93 SSE 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 98 103 SE 4 5 2294 2294 994 White 0
12 Noon Thu 100 106 SSE 6 6 2981 2981 1681 White 9
1 PM Thu 102 108 SSW 5 6 3422 3422 2122 White 11
2 PM Thu 104 109 WSW 6 7 3642 3642 2342 White 11
3 PM Thu 104 108 WNW 10 11 3422 3422 2122 White 11
4 PM Thu 103 105 WNW 14 17 2761 2761 1461 White 8
5 PM Thu 102 102 WNW 14 16 2051 2051 751 White 0
6 PM Thu 99 99 W 15 17 1319 1319 19 White 0
7 PM Thu 95 95 W 12 20 1290 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 86 86 SSE 8 17 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 84 84 SSE 15 25 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 83 83 SSE 16 26 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 82 82 SSE 14 24 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]