Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.991, -111.919, 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 89 89 W 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 88 88 SW 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 87 87 SSW 2 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 86 86 SW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 84 84 W 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 84 84 NE 1 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 82 82 SE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 84 84 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 88 88 SSW 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 91 93 SW 3 3 3168 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 93 96 NW 3 3 4019 3141 1841 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 94 97 WNW 6 6 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 95 98 WNW 9 12 5541 3426 2126 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 97 101 WNW 5 5 7745 5428 4128 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 96 99 W 6 6 6323 3949 2649 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 97 99 W 8 8 6323 3949 2649 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 97 98 W 11 16 5541 3426 2126 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 98 99 WSW 8 8 6323 3949 2649 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 96 96 W 8 8 4019 3141 1841 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 95 95 W 11 16 3435 2735 1435 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 93 93 W 11 16 3168 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 90 90 WNW 12 17 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 88 88 SSE 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 87 87 SE 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 SSE 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 85 85 SSE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 84 84 SE 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 83 83 SSE 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 82 82 SSE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 81 81 SSE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 80 80 S 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 84 84 S 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 88 90 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 92 96 S 1 1 4019 3141 1841 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 95 101 SSE 1 1 7745 5428 4128 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 97 105 SSE 1 1 10448 8252 6952 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 99 108 SW 4 4 11800 10320 9020 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 101 110 WSW 5 5 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 102 110 W 6 6 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 103 109 W 8 8 11967 10656 9356 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 104 108 W 9 12 11800 10320 9020 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 103 105 W 9 13 10448 8252 6952 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 101 101 W 9 12 7745 5428 4128 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 99 99 W 8 8 6323 3949 2649 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 96 96 W 6 6 4019 3141 1841 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 94 94 W 6 6 3317 2487 1187 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 91 91 WSW 6 6 2490 2470 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 89 89 WSW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 WSW 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 86 86 WSW 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 84 84 W 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 81 81 SW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 79 79 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 SSE 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 80 80 S 2 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 83 84 S 2 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 87 89 SW 2 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 91 95 WSW 2 2 3435 2735 1435 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 95 101 W 3 3 7745 5428 4128 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 99 107 W 3 3 11050 9826 8526 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 102 111 W 4 4 12778 11575 10275 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 104 113 W 4 4 13570 12176 10876 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 105 113 W 5 5 13570 12176 10876 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 106 112 W 6 6 13208 11907 10607 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 106 110 W 6 6 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 105 107 W 8 8 11050 9826 8526 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 103 103 W 8 8 9141 6920 5620 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 100 100 W 8 8 7054 4667 3367 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 97 97 W 6 6 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 94 94 W 6 6 3317 2487 1187 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 91 91 W 5 5 2490 2470 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 88 88 W 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 86 86 WSW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 85 85 WSW 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 83 83 SW 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 80 80 SSW 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 78 78 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 77 77 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 79 79 S 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 83 84 SSW 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 88 90 WSW 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 93 97 W 3 3 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 98 104 W 3 3 9971 7603 6303 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 102 110 WNW 3 3 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 105 114 WNW 3 3 13760 12611 11311 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 106 115 WNW 4 4 13949 13038 11738 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 107 115 WNW 4 4 13949 13038 11738 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 108 114 WNW 5 5 13760 12611 11311 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 109 113 WNW 6 6 13570 12176 10876 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 108 110 WNW 6 6 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 106 106 WNW 6 6 10750 8873 7573 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 103 103 WNW 6 6 9141 6920 5620 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 100 100 W 6 6 7054 4667 3367 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 97 97 W 5 5 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 93 93 W 5 5 3168 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 90 90 W 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 88 88 WSW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 86 86 WSW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 84 84 SW 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 81 81 SSW 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 79 79 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 79 79 S 4 4 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 81 81 SSE 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 85 86 SE 3 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 90 92 E 2 2 2757 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 95 99 ENE 1 1 6323 3949 2649 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 100 105 NNE 1 1 10448 8252 6952 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 104 110 NNE 1 1 12340 10953 9653 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 107 114 N 1 1 13760 12611 11311 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 109 116 N 2 2 14714 13456 12156 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 110 116 NNW 3 3 14714 13456 12156 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 111 115 NNW 4 4 13949 13038 11738 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 111 113 NW 5 5 13570 12176 10876 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 110 111 WNW 5 5 12778 11575 10275 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 107 107 WNW 6 6 11050 9826 8526 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 104 104 WSW 5 5 9971 7603 6303 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 100 100 SW 5 5 7054 4667 3367 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 97 97 S 5 5 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 94 94 SSE 5 5 3317 2487 1187 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 92 92 SE 5 5 2757 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 90 90 SE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 89 89 SE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 87 87 ESE 5 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 85 85 ESE 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 83 83 E 6 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 82 82 E 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 84 84 E 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 87 87 E 8 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 91 93 E 8 8 3168 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 95 98 E 8 8 5541 3426 2126 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 99 102 E 8 8 8402 6198 4898 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 103 107 E 8 8 11050 9826 8526 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 105 109 E 8 8 11967 10656 9356 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 107 111 E 9 9 12778 11575 10275 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 108 112 E 9 9 13208 11907 10607 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 109 112 E 9 9 13208 11907 10607 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 109 111 ENE 9 9 12778 11575 10275 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 108 109 ENE 9 9 11967 10656 9356 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 105 105 ENE 8 8 10448 8252 6952 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 101 101 E 8 8 7745 5428 4128 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 97 97 E 8 8 4749 3308 2008 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 94 94 E 6 6 3317 2487 1187 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 92 92 ESE 6 6 2757 2470 1170 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]