Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 57 57 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 SE 2 2724 2589 1289 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 73 77 S 2 3404 2913 1613 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 78 83 SW 2 5041 3869 2569 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 81 86 SW 2 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 84 88 W 3 8653 6905 5605 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 85 87 W 5 8435 5332 4032 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 86 87 W 7 8435 5332 4032 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 85 85 W 8 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 9 5542 4107 2807 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 8 3724 3232 1932 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 6 2923 2721 1421 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 3 2724 2589 1289 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 69 69 W 3 2643 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 NE 2 2683 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 73 77 N 3 3404 2913 1613 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 78 83 NW 3 5041 3869 2569 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 81 86 NW 5 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 83 87 NW 6 8435 5332 4032 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 84 86 NW 7 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 85 86 NW 7 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 85 85 NW 7 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 7 5041 3869 2569 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 7 3883 3392 2092 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 6 3244 2802 1502 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 6 2764 2641 1341 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 2643 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 68 E 6 2594 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 71 75 NE 7 3083 2762 1462 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 76 81 NE 7 4169 3551 2251 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 80 85 NE 7 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 82 86 N 6 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 84 86 N 6 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 85 86 N 6 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 85 85 N 6 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 84 84 NW 6 5542 4107 2807 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 81 81 NW 6 4169 3551 2251 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 77 77 N 5 3404 2913 1613 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 73 73 N 5 2804 2681 1381 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 70 70 N 3 2683 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 67 67 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 70 NE 7 2683 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 73 77 NE 7 3404 2913 1613 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 79 84 NE 7 5542 4107 2807 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 83 88 NE 7 8653 6905 5605 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 86 90 N 7 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 88 90 N 7 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 89 90 N 7 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 90 90 NW 6 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 88 88 NW 6 8653 6905 5605 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 84 84 NW 6 5542 4107 2807 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 80 80 NW 5 3883 3392 2092 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 3083 2762 1462 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 72 72 NW 5 2764 2641 1341 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 70 70 N 3 2683 2470 1170 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 N 3 2594 2470 1170 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 66 66 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 E 2 2764 2641 1341 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 75 79 E 2 3724 3232 1932 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 81 86 E 2 8072 5012 3712 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 85 90 E 3 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 87 91 NE 3 9073 8610 7310 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 88 90 N 5 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 89 90 N 5 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 89 89 NW 6 8813 7988 6688 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 88 88 NW 6 8653 6905 5605 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 84 84 NW 6 5542 4107 2807 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 6 3883 3392 2092 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 6 3083 2762 1462 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 5 2764 2641 1341 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 5 2683 2470 1170 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 SW 3 2594 2470 1170 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 66 66 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 S 0 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 S 0 2764 2641 1341 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 75 79 S 0 3724 3232 1932 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 80 85 S 0 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 84 89 S 1 8813 7988 6688 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 86 90 SW 2 8943 8348 7048 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 87 89 SW 3 8813 7988 6688 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 88 89 W 5 8813 7988 6688 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 87 87 W 6 8435 5332 4032 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 85 85 NW 7 7373 4701 3401 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 6 4772 3710 2410 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 78 78 W 6 3564 3073 1773 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 5 2923 2721 1421 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 3 2724 2589 1289 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 68 68 S 2 2594 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]