Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 51 51 NW 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 W 2 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 1 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 SW 2 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 63 SW 3 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 62 66 SW 5 9136 8687 987 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 65 70 SW 7 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 66 70 SW 9 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 67 71 W 10 10606 9683 1983 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 67 69 W 13 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 67 68 W 13 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 14 9136 8687 987 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 14 8861 8101 401 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 13 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 10 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 W 9 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 W 8 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 62 W 8 8523 7700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 62 66 W 9 9136 8687 987 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 64 69 W 12 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 65 70 W 14 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 66 70 W 16 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 66 68 W 17 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 66 67 W 17 9365 8846 1146 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 65 65 W 17 8998 8486 786 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 63 63 W 16 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 14 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NW 8 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 NE 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 NE 5 5366 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 64 NE 6 8861 8101 401 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 63 68 NE 7 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 65 70 N 7 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 66 70 N 8 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 67 69 NW 8 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 67 68 NW 8 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 66 66 NW 8 9136 8687 987 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 65 65 NW 8 8998 8486 786 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 9 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 9 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 10 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 NE 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 62 NE 10 8523 7700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 63 67 NE 10 9365 8846 1146 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 71 NE 9 10606 9683 1983 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 73 NE 8 10911 10398 2698 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 69 73 N 7 10911 10398 2698 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 70 72 N 5 10758 10043 2343 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 70 71 N 3 10606 9683 1983 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 69 69 NW 2 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 2 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 66 66 NW 2 9136 8687 987 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 63 63 NW 2 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 5366 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NE 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 2 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 E 2 5366 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 64 E 2 8861 8101 401 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 65 69 SE 2 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 68 73 SE 3 10911 10398 2698 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 70 75 S 5 11215 10732 3032 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 71 75 S 7 11215 10732 3032 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 71 73 SW 9 10911 10398 2698 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 71 72 SW 12 10758 10043 2343 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 70 70 W 13 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 14 9733 8983 1283 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 14 8998 8486 786 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 12 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 5366 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 7 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 6 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 NE 1 5366 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 NE 1 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 63 67 NE 1 9365 8846 1146 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 65 70 N 1 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 67 71 N 3 10606 9683 1983 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 68 71 N 5 10606 9683 1983 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 68 70 NW 7 10454 9319 1619 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 68 69 NW 9 10097 9120 1420 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 67 67 NW 12 9365 8846 1146 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 14 8998 8486 786 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 63 63 NW 14 8705 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 60 60 NW 14 7552 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 N 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 N 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NE 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 NE 12 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 NE 13 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 14 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 15 5213 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 16 5213 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]