Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 WNW 10 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 10 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 6 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 5 9 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 5 8 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 5 6 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 WSW 4 5 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 67 SSW 5 6 8665 7700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 67 71 SSW 5 10 10072 8934 1234 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 69 74 SW 8 11 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 71 77 SW 10 12 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 71 75 SW 10 13 11109 10371 2671 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 73 75 SW 10 14 11109 10371 2671 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 73 75 WSW 11 16 11109 10371 2671 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 73 74 WSW 12 17 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 12 17 10072 8934 1234 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 12 16 9268 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 14 8665 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 13 5643 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 6 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 5 9 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 NW 5 9 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 NW 4 5 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NNW 4 5 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 ENE 4 5 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 SE 5 8 5643 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 70 SSE 6 10 9579 8446 746 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 69 74 S 9 13 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 70 77 S 11 17 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 71 78 S 13 19 11802 11067 3367 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 73 80 SW 14 23 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 74 80 SW 16 24 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 74 78 WSW 17 25 11802 11067 3367 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 74 76 WSW 18 26 11341 10604 2904 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 72 73 WSW 18 26 10642 9539 1839 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 18 26 9579 8446 746 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 17 25 7236 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 16 24 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 16 24 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 16 23 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 14 21 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 13 19 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 11 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 6 9 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 8 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 8 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SSE 5 9 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 61 SSE 5 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 66 S 6 11 7236 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 71 SSW 8 11 10072 8934 1234 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 67 74 SW 9 12 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 69 77 WSW 10 13 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 71 79 WSW 11 16 12031 11297 3597 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 72 78 W 12 18 11802 11067 3367 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 73 78 W 14 20 11802 11067 3367 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 73 76 W 17 23 11341 10604 2904 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 71 72 W 18 24 10408 9231 1531 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 17 23 9268 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 14 20 6467 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 WNW 12 18 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 NW 11 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 NNW 10 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NNW 9 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 9 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 ENE 6 10 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 6 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 ENE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 68 E 9 13 8960 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 68 73 ESE 9 13 10642 9539 1839 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 71 77 SE 10 14 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 80 SSE 11 16 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 74 81 SSW 11 16 12449 11755 4055 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 75 81 SW 12 17 12449 11755 4055 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 12 17 12031 11297 3597 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 75 77 WSW 12 18 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 12 18 11109 10371 2671 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 12 18 10408 9231 1531 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 68 68 WNW 11 18 8960 7700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 11 18 6467 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 11 17 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 NNW 10 17 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 N 10 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 9 14 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 9 14 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 8 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 NE 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 ENE 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 ENE 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 E 8 11 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 65 E 8 12 6467 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 70 SE 8 13 9579 8446 746 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 70 76 S 9 14 11341 10604 2904 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 73 80 SSW 10 16 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 75 83 SSW 12 18 13738 12210 4510 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 76 84 SW 13 20 14013 12397 4697 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 77 83 WSW 16 21 13738 12210 4510 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 77 82 WSW 17 23 13461 11983 4283 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 76 79 W 17 23 12031 11297 3597 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 75 76 W 17 23 11341 10604 2904 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 72 72 W 16 21 10408 9231 1531 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 13 20 9268 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 66 66 W 12 19 7236 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 W 11 19 5643 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 11 18 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 11 18 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 WSW 11 17 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 10 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 SW 10 14 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 9 13 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 SE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 8 12 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 9 14 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 63 S 10 16 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 68 S 11 18 8960 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 68 74 S 13 19 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 71 78 SSW 14 21 11802 11067 3367 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 72 80 SSW 16 24 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 73 81 SW 18 26 12449 11755 4055 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 74 80 SW 19 27 12260 11527 3827 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 74 79 SW 20 27 12031 11297 3597 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 74 77 SW 20 27 11572 10836 3136 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 20 26 10876 10007 2307 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 19 26 10072 8934 1234 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 17 25 8665 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 16 24 5643 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 14 23 4941 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 14 20 4941 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]