Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 N 2 5 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 N 3 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 N 3 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 NNE 2 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 N 3 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 8 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 N 3 7 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 N 4 7 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 NNE 4 5 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 76 80 NNE 4 5 12859 12169 4469 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 85 91 NNE 4 5 15754 14977 7277 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 87 93 NNE 3 4 16516 15447 7747 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 88 94 NNE 1 1 17358 15680 7980 White 21
2 PM Tue 89 94 SSE 1 1 17358 15680 7980 White 21
3 PM Tue 90 94 SSE 4 4 17358 15680 7980 White 21
4 PM Tue 90 92 SSE 3 4 16097 15213 7513 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 89 89 SSE 3 4 15283 14503 6803 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 87 87 SSE 3 4 14808 13777 6077 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 82 82 SSE 2 5 13020 12765 5065 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 77 77 SSW 2 4 12179 11890 4190 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 2 4 12128 10190 2490 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 75 75 NW 1 3 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 76 76 N 2 4 12128 10190 2490 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NNE 3 7 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 4 9 11109 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 5 10 11109 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 ENE 5 12 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 ENE 6 12 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 E 5 11 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 ENE 5 10 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 5 11 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 ENE 5 9 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 E 7 8 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 75 79 E 8 9 12792 12118 4418 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 83 89 E 8 9 15283 14503 6803 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 86 92 ESE 8 9 16097 15213 7513 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 88 94 ESE 8 9 17358 15680 7980 White 21
2 PM Wed 89 94 ESE 7 8 17358 15680 7980 White 21
3 PM Wed 89 93 ESE 6 7 16516 15447 7747 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 89 91 ESE 4 5 15754 14977 7277 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 89 89 ESE 3 3 15283 14503 6803 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 87 87 ESE 2 3 14808 13777 6077 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 83 83 ESE 3 6 13456 12845 5145 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 79 79 E 4 8 12792 12118 4418 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 77 77 ESE 3 8 12179 11890 4190 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 76 76 ESE 3 7 12128 10190 2490 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 76 76 ESE 3 6 12128 10190 2490 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 E 3 6 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 3 6 11956 7700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 3 8 11109 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 ENE 4 8 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 E 4 8 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 E 3 7 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 ENE 3 7 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 3 8 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 ENE 4 7 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 E 4 5 12179 11890 4190 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 79 83 E 4 5 13456 12845 5145 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 92 ESE 4 5 16097 15213 7513 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 89 95 SE 4 4 17563 15958 8258 White 22
1 PM Thu 91 97 S 4 4 17973 16783 9083 White 24
2 PM Thu 92 97 SW 6 6 17973 16783 9083 White 24
3 PM Thu 91 94 WSW 10 11 17358 15680 7980 White 21
4 PM Thu 89 91 W 12 14 15754 14977 7277 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 88 88 W 13 15 15046 14192 6492 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 15 17 14808 13777 6077 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 83 83 W 13 19 13456 12845 5145 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 9 19 12237 12067 4367 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 8 14 12077 7700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 72 72 S 6 10 5007 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 3 6 5007 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]