Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 WNW 3 8 11819 10317 2617 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 78 78 W 3 8 11050 9777 2077 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 3 7 10726 8730 1030 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 3 7 10389 8035 335 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 75 75 W 3 6 9842 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 75 75 WNW 2 4 9842 7700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 74 74 NW 1 2 8788 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 WNW 2 2 10389 8035 335 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 78 79 W 2 3 11819 10317 2617 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 79 81 W 2 3 12460 11000 3300 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 81 84 W 4 4 13671 12363 4663 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 84 88 W 5 6 15862 13823 6123 White 13
12 Noon Wed 86 90 W 6 8 16275 15158 7458 White 15
1 PM Wed 86 91 W 7 9 16481 16481 8781 White 16
2 PM Wed 87 92 W 8 10 16687 16687 8987 White 17
3 PM Wed 88 93 WSW 9 11 16892 16892 9192 White 18
4 PM Wed 86 89 WSW 11 12 16069 14151 6451 White 14
5 PM Wed 84 86 WSW 11 13 14438 13293 5593 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 13 15 13400 11964 4264 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 11 14 12460 11000 3300 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 8 14 11997 10679 2979 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 6 14 11819 10317 2617 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 78 78 SW 5 11 11050 9777 2077 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 77 77 SW 4 9 10726 8730 1030 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 SSW 3 7 10389 8035 335 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 75 75 SW 3 7 9842 7700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 74 74 WSW 3 7 8788 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 W 3 7 7330 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 3 6 7330 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 2 6 6532 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 WSW 2 5 5671 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 WSW 2 4 8080 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 WSW 2 2 10726 8730 1030 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 79 81 W 1 1 12460 11000 3300 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 81 85 WSW 3 3 13874 12834 5134 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 83 87 WSW 4 5 15443 13621 5921 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 86 91 SW 6 7 16481 16481 8781 White 16
1 PM Thu 87 93 SW 9 11 16892 16892 9192 White 18
2 PM Thu 89 95 WSW 13 15 17302 17302 9602 White 20
3 PM Thu 91 97 WSW 17 19 17711 17711 10011 White 22
4 PM Thu 91 95 WSW 16 18 17302 17302 9602 White 20
5 PM Thu 90 92 WSW 15 18 16687 16687 8987 White 17
6 PM Thu 89 89 W 15 17 16069 14151 6451 White 14
7 PM Thu 88 88 W 12 16 15862 13823 6123 White 13
8 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 9 15 15443 13621 5921 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 86 86 NW 6 13 14438 13293 5593 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 82 82 NW 5 11 12936 11786 4086 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 79 79 NNW 4 8 11819 10317 2617 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 NNW 2 5 10389 8035 335 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 75 75 NW 2 5 9842 7700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 74 74 NW 2 6 8788 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 WNW 3 6 8080 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 NW 3 6 6532 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 NNW 2 6 5671 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 N 2 6 4967 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 74 W 2 4 8788 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 79 SSE 1 2 11819 10317 2617 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 81 85 ENE 0 1 13874 12834 5134 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 84 90 SE 1 2 16275 15158 7458 White 15
11 AM Fri 88 96 S 2 2 17506 17506 9806 White 21
12 Noon Fri 91 100 WSW 3 3 18315 18315 10615 White 25
1 PM Fri 92 101 WSW 7 8 18515 18515 10815 White 26
2 PM Fri 94 102 WSW 11 13 18715 18715 11015 White 27
3 PM Fri 95 101 WSW 15 18 18515 18515 10815 White 26
4 PM Fri 94 98 WSW 15 17 17913 17913 10213 White 23
5 PM Fri 93 95 W 15 17 17302 17302 9602 White 20
6 PM Fri 93 93 W 15 17 16892 16892 9192 White 18
7 PM Fri 91 91 W 12 16 16481 16481 8781 White 16
8 PM Fri 90 90 W 9 15 16275 15158 7458 White 15
9 PM Fri 89 89 W 6 14 16069 14151 6451 White 14
10 PM Fri 85 85 WNW 5 11 13874 12834 5134 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 81 81 NW 4 8 12460 11000 3300 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]