Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 S 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 S 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 SE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 73 S 2 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 75 79 S 2 3571 3080 1955 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 78 83 S 2 4791 3715 2590 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 82 87 SW 3 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 84 88 SW 6 8440 5364 4239 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 85 87 W 7 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 86 87 W 8 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 86 86 W 8 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 85 85 W 8 5582 4126 3001 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 3890 3398 2273 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 6 3091 2764 1639 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 5 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 3 2646 2470 1345 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 S 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 S 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 S 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 SE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 E 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 E 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 72 NE 2 2726 2595 1470 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 74 78 N 3 3411 2921 1796 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 78 83 N 3 4791 3715 2590 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 81 86 NW 6 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 84 88 NW 7 8440 5364 4239 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 85 87 W 7 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 86 87 W 8 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 86 86 W 8 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 84 84 W 7 5047 3874 2749 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 8 3890 3398 2273 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 8 3251 2804 1679 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 2646 2470 1345 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 NW 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 NW 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 NE 6 2601 2470 1345 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 72 76 NE 7 3091 2764 1639 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 77 82 NE 7 4191 3557 2432 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 81 86 NE 7 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 83 87 N 6 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 85 87 N 5 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 86 87 N 5 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 86 86 N 5 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 85 85 NW 6 5582 4126 3001 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 82 82 NW 6 4191 3557 2432 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 77 77 NW 6 3251 2804 1679 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 73 73 N 5 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 70 70 N 5 2646 2470 1345 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 69 69 N 3 2601 2470 1345 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 72 NE 7 2726 2595 1470 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 75 79 NE 7 3571 3080 1955 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 81 86 NE 7 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 85 90 NE 7 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 87 91 NE 7 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 89 91 N 7 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 90 91 N 7 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 90 90 NW 6 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 89 89 NW 6 8655 6943 5818 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 85 85 NW 6 5582 4126 3001 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 81 81 NW 5 3890 3398 2273 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 76 76 NW 5 3091 2764 1639 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 71 71 NW 3 2686 2470 1345 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NW 3 2601 2470 1345 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 67 67 NW 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 NE 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 73 E 2 2766 2643 1518 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 76 80 E 3 3730 3239 2114 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 81 86 E 3 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 85 90 E 3 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 87 91 NE 5 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 89 91 N 6 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 90 91 NW 6 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 90 90 NW 6 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 89 89 W 7 8655 6943 5818 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 6 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 3890 3398 2273 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 6 3251 2804 1679 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 5 2806 2683 1558 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 3 2726 2595 1470 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 3 2646 2470 1345 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 NW 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 NE 1 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 NE 1 2806 2683 1558 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 76 80 NE 1 3730 3239 2114 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 86 NE 1 7418 4717 3592 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 84 89 N 2 8655 6943 5818 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 87 91 N 3 8944 8351 7226 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 88 90 N 3 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 89 90 NW 5 8815 7992 6867 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 89 89 NW 6 8655 6943 5818 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 87 87 NW 6 8078 5018 3893 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 84 84 NW 6 5047 3874 2749 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 79 79 NW 6 3571 3080 1955 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 75 75 N 5 2931 2724 1599 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 72 72 N 5 2726 2595 1470 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 3 2601 2470 1345 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]