Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 61 61 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 E 5 2934 2724 574 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 75 79 SE 5 3735 3243 1093 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 78 83 S 5 5056 3880 1730 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 81 85 S 5 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 82 86 SW 6 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 84 86 SW 6 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 84 85 SW 7 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 84 84 W 7 5646 4150 2000 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 8 5056 3880 1730 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 7 3735 3243 1093 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 5 3255 2805 655 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 3 2807 2684 534 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 2 2726 2596 446 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 69 69 W 2 2646 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 2 2601 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 66 66 NW 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 72 N 2 2767 2644 494 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 74 78 NW 2 3575 3084 934 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 78 83 W 1 5056 3880 1730 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 81 85 W 3 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 82 86 W 5 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 83 85 W 7 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 84 85 W 7 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 83 83 W 7 5056 3880 1730 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 7 4814 3721 1571 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 79 79 W 7 3735 3243 1093 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 6 3255 2805 655 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 6 2807 2684 534 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 2726 2596 446 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 69 69 N 5 2646 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 NE 6 2686 2470 320 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 72 76 NE 6 3255 2805 655 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 77 82 NE 6 4814 3721 1571 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 80 84 N 5 5646 4150 2000 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 83 87 N 3 8461 5436 3286 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 84 86 NW 2 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 85 86 NW 3 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 85 85 W 5 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 84 84 W 5 5646 4150 2000 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 81 81 W 6 4212 3562 1412 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 78 78 NW 6 3575 3084 934 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 74 74 NW 5 2934 2724 574 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 72 72 N 5 2767 2644 494 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 70 70 N 5 2686 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 N 3 2601 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 74 NE 6 2934 2724 574 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 77 81 NE 6 4212 3562 1412 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 82 87 NE 6 8461 5436 3286 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 85 89 NE 6 8823 8014 5864 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 87 91 N 6 9083 8622 6472 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 88 90 N 6 8953 8374 6224 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 89 90 NW 6 8953 8374 6224 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 89 89 W 6 8823 8014 5864 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 6 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 85 85 W 6 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 5 4212 3562 1412 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 77 77 NW 5 3415 2924 774 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 75 75 NW 3 3095 2764 614 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 2807 2684 534 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 N 3 2726 2596 446 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 69 69 N 3 2646 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 67 67 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 68 E 3 2601 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 71 74 E 3 2934 2724 574 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 80 E 3 3895 3403 1253 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 81 86 E 3 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 84 88 SE 3 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 87 91 SE 5 9083 8622 6472 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 88 90 S 5 8953 8374 6224 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 89 90 SW 5 8953 8374 6224 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 6 8823 8014 5864 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 88 88 W 6 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 5 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 5 4212 3562 1412 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 77 77 NW 3 3415 2924 774 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 75 75 NW 2 3095 2764 614 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 73 73 N 2 2807 2684 534 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 N 1 2726 2596 446 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 69 69 N 1 2646 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 3 2601 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 71 74 NE 3 2934 2724 574 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 77 81 NE 5 4212 3562 1412 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 81 86 NE 5 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 84 88 NE 5 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 85 89 N 5 8823 8014 5864 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 86 88 N 6 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 87 88 NW 6 8665 7074 4924 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 86 86 NW 6 8098 5028 2878 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 85 85 W 7 7532 4743 2593 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 7 4814 3721 1571 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 79 79 NW 8 3735 3243 1093 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 75 75 N 9 3095 2764 614 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 72 72 N 10 2767 2644 494 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 70 70 N 10 2686 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NE 10 2601 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 66 66 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_[email protected]