Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 3 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 2473 2470 320 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 6 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 53 53 NE 7 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 59 60 NE 7 3154 2996 846 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 64 66 NE 8 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 65 67 NE 8 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 67 69 NE 8 4487 3571 1421 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 68 70 NE 8 4920 3726 1576 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 68 69 NE 9 4487 3571 1421 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 67 67 NE 9 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 65 65 NE 10 3427 3245 1095 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 61 61 NE 12 3201 3058 908 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 58 58 N 12 3061 2861 711 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 13 2932 2725 575 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 55 55 N 14 2864 2686 536 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 15 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 15 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NE 14 2688 2587 437 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 51 51 NE 10 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 10 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 12 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 47 47 NE 10 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 10 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 9 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 53 53 NE 10 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 58 59 NE 12 3108 2928 778 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 61 63 NE 12 3295 3151 1001 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 63 65 NE 10 3427 3245 1095 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 65 67 E 9 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 65 67 E 7 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 65 66 NE 6 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 3427 3245 1095 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 3295 3151 1001 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 3 3154 2996 846 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 56 56 N 3 2932 2725 575 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 53 53 NE 3 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 5 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 5 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 6 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NE 6 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 5 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 45 45 NE 5 2473 2470 320 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 NE 2 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 53 54 E 3 2796 2648 498 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 58 60 E 3 3154 2996 846 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 61 64 E 3 3342 3198 1048 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 64 66 SE 3 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 65 67 SE 3 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 66 67 S 3 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 66 66 SW 3 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 3 3342 3198 1048 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 61 61 NW 3 3201 3058 908 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 57 57 N 2 3000 2793 643 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 2 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 51 51 NE 3 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 3 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 49 49 NE 5 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NE 5 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 2473 2470 320 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 2 2473 2470 320 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 2 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 56 57 E 2 3000 2793 643 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 2 3342 3198 1048 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 66 68 E 2 4022 3415 1265 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 68 70 SE 2 4920 3726 1576 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 69 71 S 2 5011 3978 1828 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 69 70 S 2 4920 3726 1576 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 69 69 W 2 4487 3571 1421 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 2 3739 3339 1189 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 64 64 NW 2 3342 3198 1048 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 2 3154 2996 846 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 57 57 N 2 3000 2793 643 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 55 55 NE 2 2864 2686 536 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 2688 2587 437 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 3 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 3 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 3 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 2502 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 2688 2587 437 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 58 59 E 3 3108 2928 778 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 63 65 E 3 3427 3245 1095 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 66 68 E 3 4022 3415 1265 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 69 71 SE 2 5011 3978 1828 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 70 72 SE 2 5092 4438 2288 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 70 71 S 2 5011 3978 1828 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 70 70 SW 3 4920 3726 1576 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 4022 3415 1265 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 3 3427 3245 1095 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 61 61 N 2 3201 3058 908 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 2 3061 2861 711 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 2 2932 2725 575 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 2796 2648 498 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 3 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 2560 2472 322 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 2 2531 2470 320 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 2 2588 2501 351 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 53 53 NE 2 2729 2616 466 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 59 60 E 3 3154 2996 846 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 64 66 E 3 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 67 69 E 3 4487 3571 1421 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 70 72 SE 3 5092 4438 2288 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 71 73 SE 3 5252 4888 2738 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 71 72 S 3 5092 4438 2288 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 71 71 SW 3 5011 3978 1828 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 69 69 SW 3 4487 3571 1421 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 3 3583 3292 1142 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 3248 3105 955 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 59 59 NE 3 3108 2928 778 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 57 57 NE 3 3000 2793 643 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 5 2932 2725 575 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 5 2864 2686 536 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 5 2796 2648 498 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 5 2688 2587 437 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 5 2650 2558 408 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 2617 2530 380 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 3 2588 2501 351 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]