Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 93 93 NW 4 4 3195 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 91 91 W 2 2 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 90 90 SW 1 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 88 88 N 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 87 87 ESE 1 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 86 86 NW 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 86 86 NW 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 88 88 NNE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 89 89 W 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 91 92 SW 3 3 2784 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 92 94 WSW 6 6 3325 2491 341 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 93 96 W 6 6 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 94 98 W 8 8 5594 3433 1283 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 97 102 W 5 5 8444 6247 4097 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 97 100 W 10 14 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 97 99 W 11 16 6372 3997 1847 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 97 99 WSW 10 14 6372 3997 1847 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 98 99 W 10 14 6372 3997 1847 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 97 97 WSW 9 12 4795 3316 1166 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 96 96 W 9 12 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 94 94 WSW 5 5 3325 2491 341 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 92 92 SW 2 2 2784 2470 320 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 91 91 SSE 4 4 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 90 90 SSE 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 89 89 SSE 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 88 88 SE 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 87 87 SE 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 85 85 ESE 8 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 84 84 SE 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 83 83 SE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 83 83 E 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 85 85 SE 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 89 91 SSW 2 2 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 92 96 S 2 2 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 95 101 SSW 2 2 7790 5480 3330 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 97 105 SW 4 4 10468 8294 6144 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 99 108 SSW 5 5 11811 10353 8203 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 100 109 SW 6 6 11978 10676 8526 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 101 109 WSW 8 8 11978 10676 8526 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 102 108 WSW 9 9 11811 10353 8203 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 102 106 WSW 9 13 10771 8931 6781 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 102 104 WSW 10 13 10005 7647 5497 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 100 100 WSW 9 13 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 98 98 WSW 9 9 5594 3433 1283 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 96 96 WSW 8 8 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 94 94 WSW 6 6 3325 2491 341 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 6 6 3195 2470 320 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 91 91 WSW 5 5 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 90 90 WSW 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 88 88 WSW 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 87 87 WSW 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 84 84 SSW 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 82 82 SSE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 81 81 ESE 1 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 83 83 ESE 1 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 86 87 SE 1 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 90 92 SSE 1 1 2784 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 93 97 S 2 2 4795 3316 1166 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 96 102 SSW 3 3 8444 6247 4097 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 99 107 SSW 4 4 11071 9860 7710 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 101 110 SW 5 5 12370 10974 8824 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 103 112 SW 6 6 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 104 112 SW 6 6 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 105 111 WSW 8 8 12808 11666 9516 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 105 109 WSW 9 9 11978 10676 8526 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 104 106 WSW 9 9 10771 8931 6781 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 103 103 WSW 9 9 9214 6966 4816 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 100 100 W 8 8 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 98 98 W 8 8 5594 3433 1283 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 96 96 W 6 6 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 93 93 W 6 6 3195 2470 320 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 91 91 W 5 5 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 89 89 WNW 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 88 88 NW 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 86 86 N 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 83 83 NNE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 81 81 ENE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 80 80 E 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 82 82 E 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 86 87 ESE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 90 92 SE 2 2 2784 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 94 98 SSE 2 2 5594 3433 1283 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 98 104 S 3 3 10005 7647 5497 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 101 109 SSW 3 3 11978 10676 8526 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 103 112 SSW 4 4 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 105 114 SW 4 4 13773 12641 10491 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 106 114 SW 5 5 13773 12641 10491 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 107 113 SW 5 5 13583 12206 10056 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 107 111 WSW 5 5 12808 11666 9516 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 107 109 WSW 5 5 11978 10676 8526 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 106 106 WSW 5 5 10771 8931 6781 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 103 103 W 5 5 9214 6966 4816 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 101 101 W 5 5 7790 5480 3330 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 99 99 W 4 4 6372 3997 1847 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 96 96 W 4 4 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 94 94 W 3 3 3325 2491 341 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 92 92 WNW 3 3 2784 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 89 89 NNW 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 87 87 N 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 84 84 NNE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 82 82 NE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 82 82 ENE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 84 84 E 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 88 88 E 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 92 94 ESE 3 3 3325 2491 341 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 96 100 SE 3 3 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 100 106 SSE 4 4 10771 8931 6781 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 104 112 S 4 4 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 106 115 S 4 4 13962 13067 10917 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 108 117 SSW 4 4 16701 13693 11543 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 109 117 SW 4 4 16701 13693 11543 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 110 116 WSW 3 3 14776 13484 11334 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 111 114 W 3 3 13773 12641 10491 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 110 112 WNW 3 3 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 108 108 W 3 3 11811 10353 8203 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 105 105 WSW 3 3 10468 8294 6144 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 102 102 SSW 4 4 8444 6247 4097 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 99 99 S 4 4 6372 3997 1847 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 97 97 SE 4 4 4795 3316 1166 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 95 95 ESE 4 4 3442 2761 611 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 93 93 ESE 5 5 3195 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 91 91 E 5 5 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 90 90 E 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 88 88 E 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 86 86 E 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 86 86 E 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 88 88 E 6 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 91 91 E 6 6 2495 2470 320 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 94 96 E 6 6 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 97 100 ESE 6 6 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 100 104 ESE 8 8 10005 7647 5497 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 103 108 ESE 8 8 11811 10353 8203 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 105 111 ESE 6 6 12808 11666 9516 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 106 112 ESE 6 6 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 107 112 ESE 6 6 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 108 112 E 5 5 13237 11918 9768 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 108 110 E 5 5 12370 10974 8824 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 107 108 E 5 5 11811 10353 8203 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 105 105 E 5 5 10468 8294 6144 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 103 103 E 5 5 9214 6966 4816 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 100 100 E 5 5 7101 4712 2562 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 98 98 E 5 5 5594 3433 1283 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 96 96 E 6 6 4067 3167 1017 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]