Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 ENE 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 80 80 E 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 78 78 ESE 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 77 77 E 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 76 76 E 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 80 81 NE 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 86 88 NE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 90 94 ESE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 93 98 SE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 96 102 S 3 5 2109 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 98 104 SW 3 6 2591 2591 441 White 5
2 PM Tue 99 104 WSW 4 8 2591 2591 441 White 5
3 PM Tue 99 103 WSW 4 9 2353 2353 203 White 0
4 PM Tue 100 102 W 5 10 2109 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 99 99 WSW 4 8 1376 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 97 97 WSW 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 93 93 W 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 90 90 W 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 87 87 NNW 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 86 86 NNE 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 84 84 ENE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 ENE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 81 81 E 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 79 79 ENE 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 79 79 E 5 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 E 5 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 76 76 E 6 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 E 6 11 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 E 6 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 83 E 9 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 87 89 E 10 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 91 95 ESE 10 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 93 98 ESE 10 16 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 96 102 ESE 9 14 2109 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 98 104 SE 8 13 2591 2591 441 White 5
2 PM Wed 99 104 SE 6 11 2591 2591 441 White 5
3 PM Wed 100 104 SE 5 10 2591 2591 441 White 5
4 PM Wed 100 102 SSE 4 8 2109 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 99 99 SSE 3 6 1376 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 97 97 SSW 2 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 94 94 WNW 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 91 91 NNW 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 89 89 N 2 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 87 87 NNE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 85 85 NNE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 NE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 82 82 NE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 80 80 NE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 78 NE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 77 77 ENE 4 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 76 76 ENE 4 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 77 ENE 4 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 E 4 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 81 E 4 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 86 E 4 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 88 91 SE 5 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 92 96 SE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 95 99 SSE 5 10 1376 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 97 101 SSW 6 11 1865 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 98 101 SW 6 12 1865 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 99 101 SW 6 12 1865 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 98 99 WSW 8 12 1376 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 97 97 WSW 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 95 95 WSW 8 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 6 11 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 90 90 WSW 5 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 5 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 85 85 WSW 4 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 4 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 W 4 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 81 81 WNW 3 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 80 80 NW 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 79 79 NNW 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 77 77 N 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 77 77 N 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 78 78 NNE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 79 79 NE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 81 81 ENE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 85 E 3 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 89 SSE 4 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 90 93 S 4 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 92 96 S 4 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 93 97 SSW 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 94 98 SW 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 94 97 WSW 5 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 94 95 NW 5 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 93 93 N 5 13 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 92 92 N 4 11 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 90 90 NNW 3 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 88 88 NNW 2 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 86 86 NNW 2 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 84 84 NNW 2 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 82 82 NNW 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 N 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 79 79 NE 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 78 78 ENE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 77 77 ENE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 ENE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 ENE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 ENE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 77 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 79 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 82 84 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 86 89 SE 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 89 94 SE 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 92 97 SSE 3 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 94 99 S 3 8 1376 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 96 101 SSW 3 8 1865 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 97 100 SSW 3 8 1621 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 97 99 SW 3 8 1376 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 96 96 WSW 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 94 94 WSW 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 92 92 W 2 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 89 89 W 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 87 87 W 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 84 84 WSW 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 SSW 3 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 80 80 SE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 79 79 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 77 77 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 78 78 ENE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 80 ENE 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 83 85 E 3 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 86 89 SE 4 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 89 93 SSE 4 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 92 97 S 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 94 99 SSW 5 9 1376 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 95 100 SSW 5 10 1621 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 95 98 SW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 95 97 SW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 94 94 WSW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 92 92 WSW 4 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 3 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 88 88 W 2 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 86 86 W 2 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 85 85 NW 3 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]