Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 64 64 S 2 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 63 63 SE 2 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 63 63 SE 3 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 67 68 E 3 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 68 71 SE 3 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 70 74 SE 5 4068 3523 923 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 73 78 S 5 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 77 81 S 5 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 79 83 SW 6 8950 8361 5761 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 80 82 W 6 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 81 82 W 7 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 8435 5237 2637 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 9 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 4690 3685 1085 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 6 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 6 3367 2875 275 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 6 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 5 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 65 65 SE 2 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 63 63 E 2 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 62 62 E 2 2629 2600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 2 2558 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 E 3 2629 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 65 66 E 3 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 70 NE 2 3367 2875 275 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 69 73 N 2 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 73 78 NW 2 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 76 81 NW 3 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 78 82 W 6 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 79 81 W 8 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 80 81 W 9 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 8064 4995 2395 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 5014 3846 1246 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 3367 2875 275 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 69 69 NW 5 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NW 5 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 5 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 63 63 NE 7 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 62 62 NE 8 2629 2600 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 61 61 NE 8 2558 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 NE 8 2558 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 NE 8 2629 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 63 64 NE 7 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 66 69 NE 7 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 69 73 NE 7 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 72 77 NE 7 5392 4031 1431 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 75 80 NE 6 8435 5237 2637 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 78 82 N 5 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 80 82 N 5 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 81 82 NW 5 8818 7994 5394 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 80 80 NW 6 8435 5237 2637 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 79 79 NW 7 8064 4995 2395 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 7 5392 4031 1431 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 75 75 NW 6 4690 3685 1085 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 72 72 N 6 3692 3199 599 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 71 71 N 6 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 N 6 3367 2875 275 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 7 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 8 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 8 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 8 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 69 72 NE 8 3692 3199 599 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 72 76 NE 8 5014 3846 1246 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 76 81 NE 7 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 79 84 NE 7 9081 8619 6019 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 82 86 N 7 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 84 86 N 7 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 85 86 NW 7 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 84 84 NW 7 9081 8619 6019 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 7 8950 8361 5761 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 81 81 NW 6 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 6 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 6 4690 3685 1085 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 74 74 NW 6 4068 3523 923 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NW 5 3692 3199 599 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 5 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 68 68 N 5 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 66 66 E 5 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 67 68 E 5 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 70 73 E 5 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 73 77 E 5 5392 4031 1431 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 76 81 E 5 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 79 84 SE 6 9081 8619 6019 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 82 86 S 6 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 84 86 S 6 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 85 86 SW 7 9555 8921 6321 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 84 84 W 7 9081 8619 6019 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 83 83 W 7 8950 8361 5761 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 6 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 4690 3685 1085 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 3 4068 3523 923 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 73 73 NW 2 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NW 2 3692 3199 599 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 2 3042 2751 151 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 67 67 NE 3 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 65 65 NE 3 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 2752 2629 29 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 66 66 E 3 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 68 69 E 3 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 70 73 E 3 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 73 77 E 3 5392 4031 1431 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 76 81 E 3 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 79 83 E 3 8950 8361 5761 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 81 85 NE 5 9213 8789 6189 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 82 84 N 5 9081 8619 6019 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 82 83 N 6 8950 8361 5761 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 81 81 NW 7 8656 6857 4257 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 80 80 NW 7 8435 5237 2637 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 78 78 NW 8 7257 4642 2042 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 75 75 NW 8 4690 3685 1085 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 73 73 N 8 3855 3361 761 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 71 71 N 8 3530 3037 437 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 70 70 NE 9 3367 2875 275 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 NE 9 3205 2792 192 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 67 67 NE 8 2879 2710 110 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 66 66 NE 8 2793 2669 69 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 8 2711 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 63 63 NE 7 2670 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 61 61 NE 7 2558 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]