Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 WSW 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 80 80 NW 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 79 79 NW 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 78 78 NW 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 78 78 ENE 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 ENE 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 83 ENE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 88 E 5 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 87 92 E 3 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 91 97 E 3 6 11283 11283 8683 White 5
1 PM Tue 92 98 WNW 3 8 11490 11490 8890 White 6
2 PM Tue 94 99 W 3 8 11696 11696 9096 White 7
3 PM Tue 94 98 WNW 4 9 11490 11490 8890 White 6
4 PM Tue 94 96 WNW 3 9 11075 5700 3100 White 4
5 PM Tue 94 94 W 3 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 3 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 89 89 W 3 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 86 86 W 3 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 86 86 W 3 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 83 83 NW 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 N 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 82 82 ENE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 81 81 E 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 79 79 E 8 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 E 9 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 E 10 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 E 10 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 77 77 E 10 11 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 80 E 10 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 84 ESE 10 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 85 89 ESE 11 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 88 93 ESE 11 16 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 91 97 ESE 10 14 11283 11283 8683 White 5
1 PM Wed 93 99 ESE 9 13 11696 11696 9096 White 7
2 PM Wed 94 99 ESE 8 11 11696 11696 9096 White 7
3 PM Wed 95 98 ESE 6 9 11490 11490 8890 White 6
4 PM Wed 95 97 E 4 6 11283 11283 8683 White 5
5 PM Wed 94 94 E 3 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 92 92 ENE 3 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 90 90 NNE 3 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 88 88 N 3 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 86 86 N 4 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 85 85 N 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 84 84 NNE 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 NE 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 82 82 ENE 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 81 81 E 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 79 79 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 78 78 E 6 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 77 77 E 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 77 E 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 79 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 82 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 83 86 ESE 5 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 86 90 SE 5 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 89 93 SSE 5 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 91 95 SSW 5 11 10867 2600 0 White 3
2 PM Thu 93 96 WSW 5 12 11075 5700 3100 White 4
3 PM Thu 93 95 WSW 5 13 10867 2600 0 White 3
4 PM Thu 92 93 W 6 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 91 91 W 6 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 90 90 W 6 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 88 88 WSW 6 11 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 86 86 WSW 6 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 84 84 WSW 8 11 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 9 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 82 82 SW 10 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 W 9 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 81 81 NW 6 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 80 80 NNW 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 79 79 N 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 78 78 E 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 77 77 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 77 77 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 77 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 80 81 ESE 5 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 84 SSE 4 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 84 87 SSE 4 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 86 90 S 4 11 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 88 92 SW 5 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 89 93 WSW 5 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 90 93 W 5 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 90 91 NNW 6 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 89 89 N 6 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 87 87 NW 6 11 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 85 85 WSW 5 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 83 83 SSW 5 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 82 82 WSW 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 81 81 WNW 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 80 80 NW 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 N 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 78 78 NE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 ENE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 E 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 ESE 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 81 84 ESE 4 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 84 89 ESE 4 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 87 92 SE 4 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 89 94 S 3 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 91 96 S 3 8 11075 5700 3100 White 4
3 PM Sat 92 95 SSW 3 6 10867 2600 0 White 3
4 PM Sat 92 94 WSW 3 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 91 91 W 3 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 89 89 W 3 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 87 87 W 3 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 85 85 W 3 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 4 4 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 81 81 SW 8 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 SW 8 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 79 79 SSW 8 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 78 78 SSW 6 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 77 77 S 6 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 76 76 SE 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 ESE 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 6 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 E 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 80 ESE 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 83 SE 4 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 83 87 SSE 4 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 86 91 S 4 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 88 93 SSW 5 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 90 95 SW 5 10 10867 2600 0 White 3
3 PM Sun 90 93 WSW 5 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 90 91 WSW 5 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 89 89 WSW 5 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 88 88 WSW 5 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 5 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 85 85 W 5 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 84 84 W 6 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 83 83 WNW 8 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]