Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 95 95 WNW 7 10 10276 7963 5363 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 94 94 W 6 10 9751 7275 4675 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 93 93 WSW 6 9 8740 6548 3948 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 91 91 SW 5 8 7380 4945 2345 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 90 90 S 5 8 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 90 90 SSE 5 7 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 89 89 SE 4 6 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 89 89 SSE 4 6 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 90 92 SSE 4 5 8078 5773 3173 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 90 93 S 4 5 8740 6548 3948 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 92 97 SSW 3 4 10949 9514 6914 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 94 100 WSW 2 2 12228 10868 8268 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 96 103 W 1 1 13413 12086 9486 White 19
1 PM Wed 98 105 SW 2 2 13821 12977 10377 White 21
2 PM Wed 100 106 S 2 2 14025 13408 10808 White 22
3 PM Wed 101 106 ESE 2 3 14025 13408 10808 White 22
4 PM Wed 100 103 SE 3 4 13413 12086 9486 White 19
5 PM Wed 98 100 SE 4 4 12228 10868 8268 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 96 96 SSE 4 5 10640 8617 6017 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 93 93 S 5 6 8740 6548 3948 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 90 90 SSW 6 7 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 87 87 SSW 7 8 4254 3225 625 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 89 89 SW 11 13 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 91 91 SW 14 17 7380 4945 2345 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 92 92 WSW 18 21 8078 5773 3173 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 91 91 WSW 15 19 7380 4945 2345 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 90 90 WSW 13 16 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 88 88 WSW 10 13 5003 3345 745 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 88 88 WSW 9 12 5003 3345 745 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 88 88 WSW 8 10 5003 3345 745 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 87 87 WSW 7 9 4254 3225 625 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 88 88 WSW 5 7 5003 3345 745 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 89 90 W 4 5 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 90 92 WNW 3 3 8078 5773 3173 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 92 96 SW 2 2 10640 8617 6017 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 94 101 S 2 2 12682 11212 8612 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 97 105 SE 1 1 13821 12977 10377 White 21
1 PM Thu 98 106 SSW 2 2 14025 13408 10808 White 22
2 PM Thu 100 107 W 2 3 14226 13663 11063 White 23
3 PM Thu 102 107 NNW 3 4 14226 13663 11063 White 23
4 PM Thu 101 105 NW 6 6 13821 12977 10377 White 21
5 PM Thu 100 102 WNW 8 10 13126 11870 9270 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 98 98 W 11 13 11637 10152 7552 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 95 95 W 11 14 10276 7963 5363 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 91 91 W 12 16 7380 4945 2345 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 88 88 WSW 13 18 5003 3345 745 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 90 90 WSW 13 18 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 92 92 W 13 19 8078 5773 3173 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 94 94 W 13 20 9751 7275 4675 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 92 92 W 13 20 8078 5773 3173 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 91 91 W 13 20 7380 4945 2345 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 89 89 W 12 20 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 89 89 WSW 9 15 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 89 89 WSW 6 9 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 89 89 SW 3 4 5853 3464 864 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 90 90 SSW 2 3 6642 4216 1616 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 91 93 SSW 2 2 8740 6548 3948 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 93 97 S 1 1 10949 9514 6914 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 95 101 SSW 1 2 12682 11212 8612 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 98 106 SW 2 2 14025 13408 10808 White 22
12 Noon Fri 100 109 WSW 2 2 14629 14629 12029 White 25
1 PM Fri 103 112 W 2 2 15231 15231 12631 White 28
2 PM Fri 106 114 W 3 3 15627 15627 13027 White 30
3 PM Fri 109 115 WNW 3 4 15824 15824 13224 White 31
4 PM Fri 108 112 WNW 4 5 15231 15231 12631 White 28
5 PM Fri 106 108 WNW 5 6 14429 13856 11256 White 24
6 PM Fri 105 105 NW 6 7 13821 12977 10377 White 21
7 PM Fri 104 104 WNW 8 10 13618 12537 9937 White 20
8 PM Fri 102 102 W 9 13 13126 11870 9270 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 101 101 W 11 17 12682 11212 8612 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 100 100 W 10 16 12228 10868 8268 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 99 99 W 10 15 11921 10562 7962 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]