Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 NNE 8 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 NNE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 NNE 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 9 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 NE 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 NE 10 17 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 NE 11 17 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 ENE 9 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 83 87 ESE 8 12 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 85 90 S 10 14 12888 12191 7291 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 86 92 S 11 17 13191 12804 7904 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 87 93 S 11 18 13611 12870 7970 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 88 93 SSW 11 18 13611 12870 7970 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 88 92 SSW 11 17 13191 12804 7904 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 88 90 SSW 12 18 12888 12191 7291 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 87 87 SSW 11 17 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 14 7053 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 76 76 NNW 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 75 N 6 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 N 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 NNE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 ENE 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 E 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 E 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 E 12 19 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 ESE 12 19 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 SE 12 18 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 87 SE 12 18 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 84 89 SSE 12 19 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 85 91 SSE 14 20 12954 12361 7461 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 87 93 S 14 20 13611 12870 7970 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 88 93 S 13 20 13611 12870 7970 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 88 92 S 13 20 13191 12804 7904 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 87 89 S 13 19 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 85 85 SSW 12 18 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 83 83 SSW 10 14 11806 4900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 80 80 S 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 76 SSE 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 ENE 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 NNE 6 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 NNE 6 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 NE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 NE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 NE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 ENE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 75 ENE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 79 E 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 83 SE 9 13 11806 4900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 83 86 S 10 16 12154 11723 6823 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 85 89 S 11 18 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 86 90 S 12 20 12888 12191 7291 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 87 90 SSW 13 21 12888 12191 7291 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 87 89 SSW 14 23 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 86 87 SW 14 23 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 85 85 SW 14 21 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 19 7053 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 11 17 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 NNW 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 NNE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 ENE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 ENE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 76 E 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 80 SSE 9 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 84 S 10 16 12054 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 82 87 S 11 17 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 84 89 SSW 12 19 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 84 88 SSW 13 20 12542 12092 7192 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 83 86 SW 14 21 12154 11723 6823 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 81 82 W 14 23 7053 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 79 79 WNW 14 23 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 77 77 NW 12 19 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 76 76 NNW 10 16 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 N 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 73 N 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 NE 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 NE 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 NE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 E 9 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 80 SSE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 85 S 10 14 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 82 88 S 11 17 12542 12092 7192 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 83 88 SSW 11 18 12542 12092 7192 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 84 89 SSW 12 19 12822 12142 7242 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 84 87 SSW 12 19 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 83 85 SW 13 19 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 82 82 SW 12 18 7053 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 78 SW 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 5 9 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 NNW 6 10 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 N 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 NE 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 E 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 E 8 11 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 ESE 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 80 SSE 9 13 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 83 S 10 16 11806 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 81 85 S 11 18 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 82 87 S 12 19 12205 12042 7142 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 82 86 S 13 20 12154 11723 6823 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 82 85 SSW 14 21 12104 6807 1907 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 81 83 SSW 14 21 11806 4900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 80 80 SSW 13 20 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 11 18 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 10 14 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 NNW 8 12 4088 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]