Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 ESE 8 11 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 79 79 ENE 6 11 5400 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 78 78 NE 6 11 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 79 79 NE 8 12 5400 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 78 78 ESE 9 13 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 77 77 SE 9 14 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 NNE 9 14 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 NNE 10 14 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 80 N 9 14 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 80 81 NW 10 14 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 83 84 WNW 10 16 9363 6977 2077 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 81 83 W 10 17 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 83 85 W 12 19 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 83 85 W 13 21 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 83 85 W 14 24 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 84 86 W 14 24 10550 8394 3494 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 84 86 WSW 14 21 10550 8394 3494 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 85 86 SW 12 20 10550 8394 3494 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 12 19 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 12 18 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 81 81 NW 10 17 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 80 80 NNW 8 16 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 78 78 NNE 8 14 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 NNE 8 13 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 NNE 8 13 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 NNE 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 76 76 NNE 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 76 76 NE 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 75 75 NE 8 11 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 6 11 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 E 6 11 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 SE 6 11 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 82 S 8 12 7781 5371 471 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 83 86 S 8 14 10550 8394 3494 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 84 88 SSW 9 17 11275 10016 5116 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 85 90 SSW 12 19 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 86 92 SSW 14 20 13074 11844 6944 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 87 93 SW 14 21 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 88 93 SW 14 23 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 89 93 SW 14 24 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 89 92 WSW 14 24 13074 11844 6944 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 88 90 WSW 14 24 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 13 23 10867 9183 4283 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 12 20 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 11 18 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 81 81 WNW 10 16 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 79 79 NW 9 13 5400 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 78 NNW 8 12 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 NNW 8 12 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 77 77 N 8 12 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 76 76 N 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 NNE 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 NNE 8 13 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 73 73 NNE 8 13 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 NE 8 12 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 80 80 E 8 12 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 83 85 ESE 8 12 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 86 90 SE 9 14 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 87 93 S 11 17 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 88 95 SSW 12 20 13919 12948 8048 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 89 97 SSW 13 23 15346 13660 8760 White 18
1 PM Fri 90 98 SW 14 24 15550 13858 8958 White 19
2 PM Fri 91 98 SW 16 25 15550 13858 8958 White 19
3 PM Fri 92 98 SW 16 25 15550 13858 8958 White 19
4 PM Fri 92 96 WSW 16 25 14636 13392 8492 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 91 93 WSW 14 24 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 90 90 WSW 13 21 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 11 18 10867 9183 4283 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 85 85 W 10 16 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 14 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 81 81 NW 8 13 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 80 80 NNW 8 13 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 N 8 13 5400 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 78 78 N 8 13 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 N 8 13 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 75 N 8 13 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 74 NNE 9 14 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 NNE 10 16 3468 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 NNE 9 13 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 82 82 NE 8 12 7781 5371 471 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 86 88 NE 8 12 11275 10016 5116 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 89 93 E 9 14 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 91 97 SSE 10 17 15346 13660 8760 White 18
11 AM Sat 92 100 S 12 20 15954 15253 10353 White 21
12 Noon Sat 93 102 SSW 13 21 16357 16357 11457 White 23
1 PM Sat 94 103 SSW 14 23 16558 16558 11658 White 24
2 PM Sat 95 103 SSW 14 24 16558 16558 11658 White 24
3 PM Sat 96 102 SW 14 25 16357 16357 11457 White 23
4 PM Sat 96 100 SW 16 25 15954 15253 10353 White 21
5 PM Sat 95 97 SW 14 24 15346 13660 8760 White 18
6 PM Sat 93 93 WSW 12 20 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 90 90 WSW 10 16 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 88 88 WSW 8 12 11275 10016 5116 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 85 85 W 8 12 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 84 84 NNW 8 13 9363 6977 2077 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 82 82 N 9 14 7781 5371 471 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 N 9 14 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 80 80 NNE 9 14 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 79 79 NNE 9 14 5400 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 NNE 9 14 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 NNE 10 16 3772 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 78 78 NNE 10 16 4569 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 80 80 NE 10 14 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 84 84 NE 9 14 9363 6977 2077 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 88 90 ENE 9 14 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 91 94 E 10 16 13720 12493 7593 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 93 98 SE 11 18 15550 13858 8958 White 19
11 AM Sun 94 100 S 12 20 15954 15253 10353 White 21
12 Noon Sun 95 101 S 13 21 16155 16155 11255 White 22
1 PM Sun 96 102 SSW 14 23 16357 16357 11457 White 23
2 PM Sun 97 103 SSW 14 24 16558 16558 11658 White 24
3 PM Sun 98 102 SW 14 25 16357 16357 11457 White 23
4 PM Sun 98 101 SW 14 25 16155 16155 11255 White 22
5 PM Sun 97 98 WSW 14 24 15550 13858 8958 White 19
6 PM Sun 95 95 W 13 21 13919 12948 8048 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 93 93 WNW 11 18 13521 12028 7128 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 90 90 WNW 10 16 12145 10803 5903 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 87 87 NNW 9 14 10867 9183 4283 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 85 85 NNE 9 14 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 84 84 NE 9 14 9363 6977 2077 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 ENE 10 16 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 82 82 ENE 10 17 7781 5371 471 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 81 81 ENE 11 18 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 81 81 ENE 11 18 7040 4900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 80 80 ENE 10 17 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 80 80 ENE 10 16 6250 4900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 83 83 ENE 10 14 8481 6203 1303 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 86 86 E 10 14 10550 8394 3494 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 89 91 E 10 16 12615 11115 6215 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 91 94 ESE 11 18 13720 12493 7593 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 92 96 SE 13 20 14636 13392 8492 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 93 98 SE 14 24 15550 13858 8958 White 19
12 Noon Mon 95 101 SSE 16 26 16155 16155 11255 White 22
1 PM Mon 96 102 S 17 28 16357 16357 11457 White 23
2 PM Mon 97 102 S 18 29 16357 16357 11457 White 23
3 PM Mon 97 101 S 18 29 16155 16155 11255 White 22
4 PM Mon 96 98 SSW 17 27 15550 13858 8958 White 19
5 PM Mon 94 95 SSW 16 25 13919 12948 8048 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 92 92 S 13 21 13074 11844 6944 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 89 89 SE 12 18 11886 10488 5588 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 87 87 ESE 10 16 10867 9183 4283 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 85 85 E 9 13 10111 7705 2805 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 84 84 E 8 12 9363 6977 2077 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]