Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 6 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 E 6 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 68 SE 7 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 68 72 S 7 8964 8395 3495 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 71 76 S 8 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 72 76 S 8 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 73 77 SW 9 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 73 75 SW 10 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 74 75 SW 10 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 74 74 SW 10 9261 8809 3909 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 10 8964 8395 3495 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 5210 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 NW 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 68 N 10 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 71 N 10 8829 8017 3117 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 71 75 N 13 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 73 77 N 13 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 74 78 NW 13 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 74 76 NW 13 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 74 75 NW 14 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 73 73 NW 15 9099 8641 3741 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 14 8964 8395 3495 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 68 68 NW 13 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 12 4577 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 15 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 15 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 64 NE 12 4577 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 70 N 10 8666 6876 1976 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 75 N 9 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 73 77 N 9 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 75 79 NW 9 10701 9914 5014 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 75 77 NW 10 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 76 77 NW 10 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 76 76 W 10 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 74 74 W 10 9261 8809 3909 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 8666 6876 1976 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 7 5210 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 10 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 10 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 NE 10 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 68 NE 10 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 70 74 NE 9 9261 8809 3909 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 74 78 NE 8 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 76 80 NE 5 10851 10264 5364 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 78 82 W 5 11150 10669 5769 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 78 80 W 7 10851 10264 5364 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 79 80 W 9 10851 10264 5364 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 10701 9914 5014 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 8 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 9099 8641 3741 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 7 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 4577 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NE 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 69 NE 8 8447 5203 303 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 70 74 E 8 9261 8809 3909 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 74 78 E 8 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 77 81 NE 5 11001 10520 5620 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 78 82 W 6 11150 10669 5769 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 79 81 W 9 11001 10520 5620 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 79 80 W 10 10851 10264 5364 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 9099 8641 3741 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 8447 5203 303 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 65 65 NW 6 4980 4900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 N 9 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 68 N 9 8064 4974 74 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 69 73 N 9 9099 8641 3741 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 72 76 N 9 9980 9078 4178 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 74 78 N 10 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 75 79 N 12 10701 9914 5014 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 76 78 N 13 10551 9560 4660 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 76 77 N 13 10333 9212 4312 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 75 75 N 13 9623 8943 4043 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 74 74 N 13 9261 8809 3909 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 70 70 N 13 8666 6876 1976 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 66 66 N 12 5210 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 62 62 N 12 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 N 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 N 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NE 14 3999 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 13 3999 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]