Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 3 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 SE 2 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 S 2 6740 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 S 3 8665 6678 778 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 60 64 SW 3 9667 8957 3057 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 62 67 W 3 10583 9626 3726 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 64 69 W 6 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 7 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 67 69 NW 9 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 68 69 NW 12 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 66 66 NW 12 10399 9257 3357 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 64 64 NW 10 9667 8957 3057 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 10 8433 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 55 55 NW 9 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 NW 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 S 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NW 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NW 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 55 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 59 W 8 8665 6678 778 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 59 63 W 10 9294 8819 2919 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 61 66 W 13 10399 9257 3357 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 64 69 W 15 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 65 69 W 16 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 66 68 W 17 10737 9991 4091 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 67 68 NW 17 10737 9991 4091 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 65 65 NW 16 10036 9095 3195 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 15 9294 8819 2919 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 14 8037 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 54 54 NW 13 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 12 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 NW 9 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NW 9 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 S 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 S 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 56 SW 5 6740 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 NE 6 8665 6678 778 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 60 64 NE 6 9667 8957 3057 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 63 68 E 7 10737 9991 4091 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 65 70 E 8 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 67 71 NE 8 11197 10715 4815 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 68 70 NE 8 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 69 70 NE 7 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 67 67 NE 6 10583 9626 3726 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 6 10036 9095 3195 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 6 8831 8014 2114 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 5 6740 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 58 SE 8 8433 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 59 62 SE 8 9108 8650 2750 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 62 66 E 9 10399 9257 3357 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 65 70 E 9 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 67 72 E 9 11569 10867 4967 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 69 73 NE 9 12055 11020 5120 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 70 72 NE 9 11569 10867 4967 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 71 72 NE 8 11569 10867 4967 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 69 69 N 8 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 67 67 N 8 10583 9626 3726 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 8970 8405 2505 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 7 8433 5900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 6740 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 NW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 60 W 5 8831 8014 2114 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 60 63 W 5 9294 8819 2919 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 64 68 SW 5 10737 9991 4091 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 67 72 SW 5 11569 10867 4967 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 69 74 W 6 12394 11173 5273 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 71 75 W 7 12571 11466 5566 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 72 74 W 8 12394 11173 5273 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 73 74 W 10 12394 11173 5273 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 11197 10715 4815 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 13 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 9294 8819 2919 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 8665 6678 778 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 8037 5900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 10 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 W 9 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 W 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 W 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 W 6 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 W 6 8433 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 59 62 W 6 9108 8650 2750 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 62 66 W 7 10399 9257 3357 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 64 69 W 7 10891 10350 4450 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 66 71 W 8 11197 10715 4815 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 68 72 W 9 11569 10867 4967 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 69 71 W 10 11197 10715 4815 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 12 11044 10562 4662 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 10737 9991 4091 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 14 10036 9095 3195 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 8665 6678 778 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 13 6740 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 13 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 9 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 S 8 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 5213 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]