Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7681, -110.4589, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 WNW 3 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 3 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 WNW 4 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 NW 3 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 NW 3 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NNW 2 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NNW 1 3 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 NW 1 2 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 N 1 2 11139 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 NE 3 4 12178 11888 5988 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 80 86 NE 6 6 14291 12977 7077 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 84 91 NE 6 7 15510 14732 8832 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 85 92 NE 6 7 15745 14968 9068 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 86 91 NE 5 6 15510 14732 8832 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 86 90 NE 4 5 15275 14495 8595 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 86 88 NE 4 5 14801 13765 7865 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 85 85 NNE 4 5 13873 12910 7010 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 84 84 N 5 6 13447 12843 6943 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 78 78 N 6 13 12178 11888 5988 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 73 73 NNE 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 E 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 ESE 5 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 SE 5 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 SE 6 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 6 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 ESE 5 10 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 ESE 3 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 E 3 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 3 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 3 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 E 3 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 71 E 5 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 75 E 8 10 11957 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 76 82 ESE 10 12 12925 12223 6323 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 82 89 ESE 11 13 15039 14179 8279 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 84 91 ESE 11 13 15510 14732 8832 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 84 89 ESE 11 13 15039 14179 8279 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 84 87 ESE 10 11 14563 13343 7443 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 84 86 ESE 9 11 14291 12977 7077 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 82 82 ESE 7 8 12925 12223 6323 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 81 81 ESE 6 7 12858 12168 6268 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 77 77 E 4 8 12128 10197 4297 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 72 72 ESE 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 ESE 5 11 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 SE 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 SE 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 SSE 4 9 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SSE 4 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 SSW 3 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 SSW 2 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 S 2 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SSE 2 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 3 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 3 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 SSE 4 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 SSE 2 3 12077 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 77 80 SSE 4 4 12791 12117 6217 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 80 84 SSE 3 4 13447 12843 6943 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 80 83 SSW 3 4 13013 12754 6854 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 80 83 SW 5 6 13013 12754 6854 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 81 84 SW 6 7 13447 12843 6943 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 10 12 12128 10197 4297 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 69 69 W 21 24 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 W 18 27 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 13 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 12 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 1 3 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 ENE 1 2 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 S 1 2 5007 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]