Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 SSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 40 SSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 36 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 37 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 46 S 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 50 S 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 55 S 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 61 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 74 62 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 76 64 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 78 66 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 78 65 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 77 62 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 55 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 70 51 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 47 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 47 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 46 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 44 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 42 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 41 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 40 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 40 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 39 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 41 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 49 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 53 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 58 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 63 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 64 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 77 65 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 79 67 WSW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 79 66 WSW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 77 62 WSW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 72 55 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 52 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 48 W 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 47 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 47 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 47 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 47 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 46 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 44 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 42 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 42 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 40 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 40 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 39 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 41 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 48 SSE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 52 SSE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 57 SSE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 62 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 63 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 64 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 78 66 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 78 65 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 62 SW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 55 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 70 51 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 47 WNW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 46 WNW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 47 WNW 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 46 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 44 SE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 42 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 41 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 40 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 40 NNW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 39 NNW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 47 NW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 51 NW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 55 NW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 59 WSW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 60 WSW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 61 WSW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 75 63 WSW 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 75 62 WSW 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 74 59 WSW 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 52 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 49 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 45 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 45 WNW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 44 WNW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 45 WNW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 44 N 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 44 N 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 43 N 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 41 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 40 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 39 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 39 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 38 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 40 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 47 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 50 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 54 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 59 SW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 60 SW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 61 SW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 75 63 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 75 62 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 74 59 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 69 52 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 49 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 45 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 45 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 44 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 45 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 44 ENE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 44 ENE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 43 ENE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 41 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 40 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 39 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 39 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 38 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 40 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 45 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 48 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 50 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 58 SSW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 59 SSW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 60 SSW 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 74 62 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 74 61 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 73 58 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 51 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 48 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 44 WSW 10 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 44 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 43 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 44 W 6 9 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]