Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 39 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 40 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 41 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 41 NNE 4 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 41 NNE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 41 NNE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 39 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 38 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 42 NE 1 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 47 S 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 48 SSW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 48 SW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 48 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 46 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 45 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 43 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 42 WSW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 40 NW 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 N 3 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 NNE 3 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 NNE 4 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 NNE 6 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 NNE 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 NNE 5 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 NE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 NE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 38 NNE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 NNE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 41 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 44 S 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 45 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 47 SSW 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 47 SW 3 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 45 S 3 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 43 SW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 40 S 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 39 ESE 0 0 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 38 NE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 NE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 NE 6 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 NE 7 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 NE 7 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 NE 8 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 NNE 7 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 37 NE 8 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 NE 8 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 NE 7 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 NNE 7 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 7 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 6 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 6 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NNE 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 38 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 43 SSE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 47 S 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 51 SSW 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 51 SW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 68 50 WSW 6 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 48 WSW 6 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 45 W 6 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 38 W 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 33 WNW 6 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 30 NNW 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 28 N 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 27 N 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 NNE 5 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 30 NNE 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]