Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 57 37 ESE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 37 ESE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 36 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 39 E 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 41 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 41 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 42 SE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 49 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 49 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 50 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 51 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 50 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 49 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 47 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 46 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 34 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 39 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 43 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 43 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 45 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 50 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 51 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 52 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 53 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 52 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 52 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 50 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 47 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 46 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 42 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 41 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 43 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 41 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 39 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 36 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 40 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 45 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 50 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 53 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 55 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 54 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 54 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 52 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 51 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 47 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 WSW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 43 WNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 39 WNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 37 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 35 NNE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 NNE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 NNE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 37 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 39 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 41 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 42 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 43 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 44 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 45 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 45 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 46 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 46 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 45 WSW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 44 WSW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 WSW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 NE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 34 NE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 37 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 39 SSE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 41 SSE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 43 SSE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 44 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 45 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 46 S 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 46 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 46 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 46 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 45 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 44 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 41 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 38 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 WNW 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 ENE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 ENE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 ENE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 40 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 42 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 44 SSE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 51 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 54 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 55 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 68 56 SW 5 6 597 397 347 White 3
3 PM Wed 68 54 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 53 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 51 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 47 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 W 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]