Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 31 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 41 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 NW 4 5 374 353 303 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 72 53 W 5 6 408 387 337 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 72 54 W 5 6 415 394 344 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 74 56 W 5 6 429 408 358 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 75 57 W 6 8 435 415 365 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 74 55 W 6 8 422 401 351 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 74 54 W 6 8 415 394 344 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 70 50 NNW 4 5 387 367 317 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 64 44 NNW 4 5 346 328 278 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 60 40 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 NNE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 NNE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 NNE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 37 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 45 ENE 3 4 353 332 282 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 67 48 SW 5 6 374 353 303 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 69 51 SW 5 6 394 374 324 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 69 51 SW 5 6 394 374 324 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 69 51 WSW 6 8 394 374 324 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 68 49 WSW 6 8 380 360 310 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 67 47 WSW 6 8 367 346 296 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 65 45 WNW 5 6 353 332 282 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 63 43 WNW 5 6 339 328 278 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 32 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 31 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 28 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 27 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 28 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 33 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 45 NNW 5 6 353 332 282 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 67 49 NNW 5 6 380 360 310 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 68 50 NNW 5 6 387 367 317 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 68 50 WNW 10 12 387 367 317 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 68 49 WNW 10 12 380 360 310 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 67 47 WNW 10 12 367 346 296 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 66 46 NNW 12 17 360 339 289 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 62 42 NNW 12 17 332 328 278 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 57 37 NNW 12 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 31 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 30 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 30 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 29 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 28 N 13 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 27 N 14 19 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 27 N 14 19 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 26 N 14 19 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 25 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 23 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 22 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 23 N 12 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 N 12 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 N 12 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 41 NNE 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 46 NNE 10 12 360 339 289 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 65 47 NNE 10 12 367 346 296 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 65 47 WNW 10 12 367 346 296 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 65 46 WNW 10 12 360 339 289 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 63 43 WNW 10 12 339 328 278 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 61 41 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 NNW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 31 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 29 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 28 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 27 NNE 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 27 NNE 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 26 NNE 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 26 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 26 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 25 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 24 NNE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 26 NNE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 NNE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 40 NNE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 47 ENE 6 8 367 346 296 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 69 51 ENE 6 8 394 374 324 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 69 51 ENE 6 8 394 374 324 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 68 50 WSW 8 10 387 367 317 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 67 48 WSW 8 10 374 353 303 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 65 45 WSW 8 10 353 332 282 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 63 43 WNW 8 10 339 328 278 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 60 40 WNW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 WNW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 32 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 31 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 31 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 30 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 29 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 28 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 28 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 27 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 28 NNE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 34 NNE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 42 NNE 8 10 332 328 278 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 68 49 N 8 10 380 360 310 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 71 52 N 8 10 401 380 330 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 71 52 N 8 10 401 380 330 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 70 51 WNW 9 11 394 374 324 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 70 51 WNW 9 11 394 374 324 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 69 49 WNW 9 11 380 360 310 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 67 47 NW 8 10 367 346 296 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 63 43 NW 8 10 339 328 278 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 39 NW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 N 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]