Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Tue 50 30 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 44 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 47 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 49 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 49 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 50 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 49 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 47 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 46 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 42 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 39 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 31 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 44 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 45 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 45 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 46 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 46 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 44 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 43 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 39 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 32 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 31 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 30 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 29 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 29 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 28 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 28 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 26 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 27 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 26 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 25 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 25 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 25 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 31 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 44 NE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 45 NE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 46 NE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 47 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 46 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 44 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 43 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 38 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 35 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 32 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 29 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 28 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 28 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 27 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 27 NE 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 25 NE 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 26 NE 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 25 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 24 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 24 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 24 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 31 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 41 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 45 E 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 47 E 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 48 E 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 49 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 48 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 46 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 45 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 40 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 37 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 32 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 31 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 30 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 28 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 29 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 27 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 27 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 26 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 26 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 25 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 24 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 24 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 24 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 40 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 45 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 46 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 47 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 47 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 45 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 44 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 39 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 31 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 30 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 29 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 27 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 26 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 26 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 25 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 25 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 24 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 23 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 23 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 23 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 44 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 45 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 46 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 47 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 46 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 44 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 35 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 32 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 29 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 28 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 28 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 27 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 27 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 25 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 26 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]