Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 NE 2 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 40 ENE 3 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 41 NE 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 41 NE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 41 NNE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 41 N 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 43 N 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 46 NNW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 50 WSW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 54 SW 4 4 1218 493 443 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 72 57 SW 6 7 1367 1215 1165 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 73 60 SW 7 8 1477 1365 1315 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 73 62 SW 7 8 1507 1461 1411 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 73 54 SW 8 9 1218 493 443 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 73 54 SW 8 9 1218 493 443 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 73 54 SW 8 9 1218 493 443 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 73 58 SW 7 8 1417 1265 1215 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 73 56 SW 6 8 1317 998 948 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 72 53 WSW 5 6 1006 328 278 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 69 49 SW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 47 WSW 1 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 46 NNE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 45 N 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 44 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 44 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 43 NNW 3 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 N 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 43 N 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 43 N 3 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 44 N 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 48 N 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 52 SW 2 2 752 328 278 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 72 55 SW 4 5 1267 746 696 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 73 58 SW 6 7 1417 1265 1215 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 74 61 SW 6 7 1492 1414 1364 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 75 64 SW 7 8 1538 1491 1441 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 76 65 SW 7 8 1553 1507 1457 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 77 66 SW 7 8 1568 1522 1472 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 57 WSW 8 10 1367 1215 1165 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 76 61 WSW 8 10 1492 1414 1364 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 75 58 WSW 7 9 1417 1265 1215 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 55 WSW 6 8 1267 746 696 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 71 51 WSW 5 6 497 328 278 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 69 49 W 3 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 49 NW 3 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 48 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 48 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 47 NNW 3 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 47 NNW 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 46 NNW 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 46 N 3 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 45 N 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 44 N 2 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 46 N 3 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 50 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 54 W 2 2 1218 493 443 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 76 59 WSW 4 4 1462 1315 1265 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 77 62 WSW 5 6 1507 1461 1411 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 78 65 WSW 6 7 1553 1507 1457 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 79 68 SW 7 8 1598 1552 1502 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 80 69 SW 7 8 1613 1567 1517 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 80 69 SW 8 9 1613 1567 1517 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 61 SW 8 9 1492 1414 1364 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 79 60 WSW 8 10 1477 1365 1315 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 78 59 SW 7 9 1462 1315 1265 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 77 57 WSW 6 7 1367 1215 1165 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 73 53 W 5 6 1006 328 278 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 69 49 WNW 5 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 46 NW 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 45 NNW 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 43 N 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]