Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 52 32 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 30 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 43 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 50 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 52 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 52 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 51 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 48 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 47 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 46 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 43 S 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 SE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 SE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 39 SE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 35 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 35 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 NE 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 34 NE 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 45 NE 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 50 NE 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 53 S 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 54 S 7 351 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 71 55 S 7 374 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 71 55 SW 8 374 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 71 54 SW 8 351 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 70 51 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 49 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 42 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 40 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 41 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 39 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 NE 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 47 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 53 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 56 SW 7 408 328 278 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 73 57 SW 7 443 351 301 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 74 58 SW 7 478 374 324 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 74 58 SW 7 478 374 324 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 74 57 SW 7 443 351 301 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 73 54 SW 7 351 328 278 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 72 52 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 51 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 48 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 45 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 43 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 43 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 43 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 49 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 55 NE 6 374 328 278 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 75 58 W 10 478 374 324 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 75 59 W 10 513 407 357 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 76 60 W 10 548 442 392 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 76 60 W 10 548 442 392 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 76 59 W 10 513 407 357 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 75 56 W 10 408 328 278 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 74 54 NW 10 351 328 278 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 73 53 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 49 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 45 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 43 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 44 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 43 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 46 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 51 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 53 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 71 55 W 9 374 328 278 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 71 55 W 9 374 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 71 55 W 9 374 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 71 54 W 9 351 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 70 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 49 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 44 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 49 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 51 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 53 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 53 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 53 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 52 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 49 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 68 48 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 47 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 44 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 39 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]