Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 W 14 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 61 NW 14 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 59 63 NW 14 8854 7509 1229 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 61 65 NW 14 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 63 67 NW 15 9837 9261 2981 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 65 68 NW 15 9949 9600 3320 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 66 67 NW 16 9837 9261 2981 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 65 65 W 17 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 16 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 18 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 24 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 25 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 25 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 60 60 W 26 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 25 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 57 57 W 24 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 21 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 17 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 15 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 W 14 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 W 13 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 NW 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 NW 5 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 N 2 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 57 NE 6 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 59 NE 6 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 58 62 NE 6 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 60 64 NE 7 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 61 64 N 7 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 61 62 N 7 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 61 61 N 6 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 61 61 N 5 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 61 61 N 2 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 5 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 57 57 NW 3 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NW 1 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 0 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SW 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 W 0 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 S 0 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SE 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 E 1 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 NE 2 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 59 NE 2 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 59 63 NE 5 8854 7509 1229 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 61 65 NE 6 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 63 67 NE 6 9837 9261 2981 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 65 69 NE 7 10060 9711 3431 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 66 69 NE 6 10060 9711 3431 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 67 68 NE 6 9949 9600 3320 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 6 9726 8806 2526 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 66 66 E 5 9726 8806 2526 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 65 65 E 5 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 64 64 E 2 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 62 62 E 2 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 61 61 E 2 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 60 60 E 3 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 3 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 6 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 63 64 E 5 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 64 66 E 5 9726 8806 2526 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 65 69 E 6 10060 9711 3431 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 66 70 E 6 10172 9822 3542 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 68 72 E 6 10380 10044 3764 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 70 74 NE 7 10830 10235 3955 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 71 74 NE 7 10830 10235 3955 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 72 NE 7 10380 10044 3764 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 10380 10044 3764 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 70 70 N 6 10172 9822 3542 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 6 9837 9261 2981 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 8 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 8854 7509 1229 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 12 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 12 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 59 59 W 14 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 14 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 14 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 9 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NW 9 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NW 9 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 59 60 W 5 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 60 62 W 5 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 61 65 NE 6 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 64 68 NE 6 9949 9600 3320 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 67 71 NE 6 10245 9933 3653 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 70 74 N 8 10830 10235 3955 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 72 75 N 8 11078 10352 4072 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 71 72 N 8 10380 10044 3764 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 71 71 NE 7 10245 9933 3653 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 70 70 NE 7 10172 9822 3542 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 68 68 NE 7 9949 9600 3320 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 66 66 E 5 9726 8806 2526 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 65 65 E 5 9614 8373 2093 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 63 63 E 5 8854 7509 1229 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 3 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 E 3 7978 6611 331 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 E 3 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 E 3 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 E 7 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 60 E 7 7536 6280 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 60 64 E 7 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 64 68 NE 12 9949 9600 3320 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 66 69 NE 12 10060 9711 3431 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 66 67 NE 12 9837 9261 2981 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 66 66 NE 9 9726 8806 2526 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 64 64 NE 9 9315 7945 1665 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 62 62 NE 9 8411 7065 785 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 59 59 NE 6 7086 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 NE 6 6627 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 57 57 NE 6 6136 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 E 5 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 E 5 5578 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 5194 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]