Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SW 5 11 8422 7594 1314 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 4 9 8422 7594 1314 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 4 8 8422 7594 1314 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 64 64 SW 3 6 8016 6453 173 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 5 7138 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 1 3 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SSW 1 3 7614 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 66 66 S 1 2 8422 7594 1314 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 2 2 9700 8408 2128 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 71 71 SE 1 2 10353 9180 2900 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 72 73 SE 1 1 11546 9997 3717 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 73 75 SE 0 1 12790 10778 4498 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 75 79 S 1 2 15005 13244 6964 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 77 84 SW 2 2 17064 15684 9404 White 23
2 PM Wed 78 86 W 3 3 17478 17478 11198 White 25
3 PM Wed 77 84 W 4 4 17064 15684 9404 White 23
4 PM Wed 77 82 W 5 6 16651 14858 8578 White 21
5 PM Wed 76 79 W 6 7 15005 13244 6964 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 74 75 WSW 6 10 12790 10778 4498 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 7 13 10353 9180 2900 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 16 9700 8408 2128 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 6 14 8625 8005 1725 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 65 65 SSW 5 12 8219 7125 845 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 4 9 7614 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SSW 4 9 6458 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 4 9 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SW 4 9 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SW 4 8 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 SW 3 7 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 3 6 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 2 4 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 SSW 1 2 7614 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 69 71 SSW 0 0 10353 9180 2900 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 71 75 SSE 1 1 12790 10778 4498 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 74 80 SE 1 1 15423 13800 7520 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 77 85 E 2 2 17271 16053 9773 White 24
12 Noon Thu 78 87 SSE 3 3 17682 17682 11402 White 26
1 PM Thu 79 88 WSW 4 4 17888 17888 11608 White 27
2 PM Thu 81 89 NNW 5 5 18093 18093 11813 White 28
3 PM Thu 79 86 NW 6 6 17478 17478 11198 White 25
4 PM Thu 78 83 WNW 6 7 16858 15309 9029 White 22
5 PM Thu 77 80 WNW 7 8 15423 13800 7520 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 75 76 W 6 8 13374 11437 5157 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 8 11546 9997 3717 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 3 8 10877 9664 3384 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 3 6 9700 8408 2128 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 2 4 8625 8005 1725 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 1 3 8016 6453 173 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 WSW 2 4 7138 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 2 5 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 2 6 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 2 4 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 1 4 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 1 2 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 0 2 5873 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 SW 0 1 8422 7594 1314 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 71 73 SSW 0 0 11546 9997 3717 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 74 78 SE 0 1 14480 12666 6386 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 77 83 E 1 2 16858 15309 9029 White 22
11 AM Fri 80 88 NNE 2 2 17888 17888 11608 White 27
12 Noon Fri 81 90 NNE 2 2 18298 18298 12018 White 29
1 PM Fri 82 91 NNE 2 2 18502 18502 12222 White 30
2 PM Fri 84 92 NNE 2 2 18707 18707 12427 White 31
3 PM Fri 82 89 ESE 2 3 18093 18093 11813 White 28
4 PM Fri 81 86 SW 3 3 17478 17478 11198 White 25
5 PM Fri 80 83 NW 3 4 16858 15309 9029 White 22
6 PM Fri 79 80 WNW 3 4 15423 13800 7520 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 2 4 14480 12666 6386 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 2 4 13936 12065 5785 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 2 5 12182 10318 4038 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 2 5 10877 9664 3384 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 2 6 10036 8610 2330 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]