Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SSE 3 7 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SSE 2 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 1 2 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SSE 0 1 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SE 1 2 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 1 3 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SSE 1 3 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 N 2 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 S 3 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 SSW 3 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 57 SW 2 3 8230 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 62 SSW 2 2 10107 9215 2935 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 62 65 W 3 3 10941 10072 3792 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 64 66 WNW 3 3 11215 10353 4073 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 65 66 WSW 1 1 11215 10353 4073 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 2 2 10666 9788 3508 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 2 3 9821 8926 2646 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 3 4 8230 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 6 11 7426 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 6 14 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 7 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 WSW 7 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 7 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 WSW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 SW 7 15 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 WSW 6 14 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 6 13 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 WSW 6 10 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 W 5 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 54 W 5 5 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 56 WNW 6 7 7426 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 57 WNW 6 8 8230 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 WNW 7 9 8230 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 8 6858 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 7 9 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 WNW 9 11 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 W 6 10 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 6 11 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 6 13 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 W 8 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 8 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 8 17 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 WSW 8 18 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 9 19 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 WSW 7 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 21 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 8 18 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 W 9 20 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 W 8 17 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 WNW 7 16 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 WNW 6 14 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 NW 6 11 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 47 NW 6 7 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 36 NNW 5 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 52 N 4 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 51 N 5 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 40 NNW 3 4 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 NNW 5 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 NNW 5 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 N 5 6 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 N 4 7 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NNE 4 7 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 N 2 4 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 NNW 2 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 ENE 0 0 6093 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 NE 2 5 6093 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]