Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 ESE 4 8 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 4 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 4 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 5 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 4 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 SE 4 6 6017 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 ESE 5 7 7194 6472 192 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 6 6 8413 7491 1211 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 76 81 E 6 6 10477 9564 3284 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 78 84 ENE 5 6 11734 10432 4152 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 81 87 ENE 5 6 14367 11561 5281 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 81 87 ENE 5 6 14367 11561 5281 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 81 85 ENE 5 5 12700 10771 4491 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 79 82 ENE 4 5 10819 9853 3573 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 80 81 ENE 4 4 10477 9564 3284 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 78 78 E 3 4 9594 8689 2409 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 70 70 ESE 3 6 7194 6472 192 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 64 64 SE 4 9 6017 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 3 8 5864 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 2 5 5712 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 SW 2 4 5712 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 WSW 1 3 5559 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 1 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 SW 2 4 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SW 2 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 2 4 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 2 4 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 1 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SW 1 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 SW 2 2 7194 6472 192 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 74 76 W 1 1 9008 8095 1815 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 76 79 NW 2 2 9885 8983 2703 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 83 88 NNW 3 3 15109 12517 6237 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 84 90 N 3 4 16464 14169 7889 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 85 91 N 3 3 17091 14906 8626 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 85 91 N 2 3 17091 14906 8626 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 83 86 NNW 2 2 13570 11107 4827 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 82 82 NNW 1 1 10819 9853 3573 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 4 4 10174 9274 2994 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 7 8 9302 8393 2113 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 7 11 7502 6623 343 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 6 14 6169 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 6 13 6169 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 13 6017 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 13 6017 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SW 6 13 5712 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 13 5712 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 12 5559 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 12 5559 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 6 13 5559 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 12 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 11 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 SW 4 7 6321 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 WSW 3 4 7808 6877 597 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 72 75 W 2 2 8711 7794 1514 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 77 82 NW 3 3 10819 9853 3573 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 79 85 NNW 4 5 12700 10771 4491 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 82 88 N 5 6 15109 12517 6237 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 81 87 NNE 5 6 14367 11561 5281 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 81 85 N 2 3 12700 10771 4491 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 79 81 WNW 3 3 10477 9564 3284 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 77 77 WNW 5 6 9302 8393 2113 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 9 7808 6877 597 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 7 13 6473 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 6 13 5864 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 5 11 5864 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 4 9 5559 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 4 8 5559 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]