Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.134575, -118.687689, 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 73 E 10 13 2150 1640 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 77 79 E 10 13 6474 4969 3329 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 79 81 E 10 13 7353 5955 4315 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 80 82 ENE 10 13 7780 6403 4763 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 80 81 ENE 10 13 7353 5955 4315 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 80 80 ENE 10 13 6918 5498 3858 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 76 NNE 10 13 5084 2142 502 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 72 72 NNE 10 13 1761 1640 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 68 68 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 65 NNE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NNE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 4 5 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NE 4 5 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 NE 4 5 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 71 ENE 8 9 1406 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 75 ENE 8 9 3849 1758 118 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 74 76 ENE 8 9 5084 2142 502 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 74 76 SW 10 13 5084 2142 502 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 73 74 SW 10 13 2543 1640 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 13 1761 1640 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 SW 6 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 4 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 3 4 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NNE 3 4 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 6 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 NNE 5 8 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 62 N 6 9 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 66 N 6 9 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 68 N 6 9 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 67 69 WNW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 67 68 WNW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 65 NW 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 NW 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 NW 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 N 14 20 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 14 20 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 N 14 20 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 62 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 66 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 69 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 70 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 69 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 67 N 12 17 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 65 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 62 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 N 13 19 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 63 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 68 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 70 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 70 72 NNE 11 16 1761 1640 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 70 71 NNE 11 16 1406 1640 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 69 NNE 11 16 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 67 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 65 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 70 NNE 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 73 NNE 10 13 2150 1640 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 73 74 N 9 12 2543 1640 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 73 74 N 9 12 2543 1640 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 72 72 N 9 12 1761 1640 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 70 70 NW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 10 13 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 12 1220 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 8 11 1220 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]