Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 14 794 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 14 794 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 14 794 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 N 14 794 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 N 14 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 70 N 14 3348 2665 1025 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 74 77 N 12 4574 4068 2428 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 78 82 N 12 7150 5704 4064 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 80 84 N 12 7981 6651 5011 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 80 84 SW 16 7981 6651 5011 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 79 82 SW 16 7150 5704 4064 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 78 79 SW 16 5775 4395 2755 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 76 76 N 23 4410 3904 2264 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 71 71 N 23 3539 2957 1317 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 66 66 N 23 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 N 24 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 24 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 24 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 N 29 841 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 29 841 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 29 794 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 28 794 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 N 28 794 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 28 794 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 25 794 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 25 794 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 25 794 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 26 794 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 N 26 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 N 26 3916 3337 1697 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 77 80 N 29 6288 4558 2918 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 84 N 29 7981 6651 5011 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 83 87 N 29 9226 7895 6255 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 83 87 N 29 9226 7895 6255 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 82 85 N 29 8385 7073 5433 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 81 82 N 29 7150 5704 4064 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 79 79 N 22 5775 4395 2755 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 75 75 N 22 4246 3716 2076 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 70 70 N 22 3348 2665 1025 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 68 N 22 2966 1704 64 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 66 66 N 22 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 22 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 NE 15 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NE 15 1335 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 15 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NE 15 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NE 15 965 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NE 15 965 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 18 841 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 18 794 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 18 794 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 18 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 69 NE 18 3157 1827 187 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 77 79 NE 18 5775 4395 2755 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 83 86 N 21 8795 7488 5848 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 87 91 N 21 9904 9537 7897 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 90 94 N 21 10210 9874 8234 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 90 94 N 21 10210 9874 8234 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 89 92 N 21 10010 9663 8023 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 88 89 N 21 9691 8691 7051 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 86 86 E 14 8795 7488 5848 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 81 81 E 14 6723 4780 3140 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 75 75 E 14 4246 3716 2076 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 73 73 E 14 3916 3337 1697 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 70 70 E 14 3348 2665 1025 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 68 68 E 14 2966 1704 64 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 67 67 N 12 2702 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 12 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 N 12 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 N 12 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 N 12 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 12 1335 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 N 9 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 N 9 3916 3337 1697 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 81 83 N 9 7569 6210 4570 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 88 91 SW 15 9904 9537 7897 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 92 96 SW 15 10442 10086 8446 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 95 99 SW 15 11123 10392 8752 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 95 99 SW 15 11123 10392 8752 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 93 96 SW 15 10442 10086 8446 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 92 93 SW 15 10116 9768 8128 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 90 90 NW 15 9797 9118 7478 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 83 83 NW 15 7569 6210 4570 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 15 4574 4068 2428 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 74 74 NW 15 4081 3526 1886 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 70 70 NW 15 3348 2665 1025 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 68 68 NW 15 2966 1704 64 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NW 10 1705 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 10 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NW 10 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NW 10 1335 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 10 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 965 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 841 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 10 841 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 N 10 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 N 10 3157 1827 187 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 76 78 N 10 4840 4231 2591 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 82 85 SW 13 8385 7073 5433 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 86 90 SW 13 9797 9118 7478 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 88 92 SW 13 10010 9663 8023 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 88 92 SW 13 10010 9663 8023 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 87 90 SW 13 9797 9118 7478 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 85 86 SW 13 8795 7488 5848 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 83 83 W 13 7569 6210 4570 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 13 4574 4068 2428 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 13 3729 3147 1507 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 13 2966 1704 64 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 13 1705 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NE 10 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 10 1211 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 965 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 965 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NE 10 794 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NE 10 794 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 13 794 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 794 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 794 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NE 13 794 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 NE 13 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 75 NE 13 4246 3716 2076 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 79 82 NE 17 7150 5704 4064 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 83 87 NE 17 9226 7895 6255 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 86 90 NE 17 9797 9118 7478 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 86 90 NE 17 9797 9118 7478 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 85 88 NE 17 9585 8296 6656 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 84 85 NE 17 8385 7073 5433 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 82 82 E 16 7150 5704 4064 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 77 77 E 16 4574 4068 2428 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 71 71 E 16 3539 2957 1317 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 69 69 E 16 3157 1827 187 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 66 66 E 16 1828 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 E 16 1582 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NE 16 1458 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NE 16 1335 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NE 16 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 16 1088 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NE 16 965 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 NE 16 841 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]