Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 4 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 SW 5 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 5 11 492 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 NW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 NW 4 7 818 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NW 4 5 1928 1691 991 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 68 70 NW 5 6 2012 1927 1227 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 70 74 WNW 6 8 2098 2033 1333 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 73 79 WNW 8 9 2276 2139 1439 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 73 81 WNW 8 10 2424 2199 1499 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 74 82 WNW 9 11 2498 2273 1573 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 75 83 WNW 10 11 2572 2346 1646 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 74 81 WNW 9 11 2424 2199 1499 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 73 78 WNW 9 10 2203 2118 1418 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 72 75 WNW 8 10 2119 2054 1354 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 70 71 WNW 7 11 2034 1957 1257 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 67 67 WNW 6 11 1928 1691 991 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 5 12 1840 816 116 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 62 62 WNW 5 11 818 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 WNW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 3 8 492 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 4 8 492 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 8 492 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NW 4 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NW 4 8 492 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NW 4 7 1274 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 NW 4 6 1958 1836 1136 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 70 72 NW 5 7 2055 1987 1287 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 72 76 WNW 6 8 2140 2075 1375 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 75 81 WNW 7 8 2424 2199 1499 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 75 83 WNW 8 9 2572 2346 1646 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 75 83 WNW 9 11 2572 2346 1646 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 75 83 WNW 10 12 2572 2346 1646 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 74 81 W 10 11 2424 2199 1499 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 72 77 W 9 11 2162 2097 1397 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 71 74 W 9 10 2098 2033 1333 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 69 70 W 8 11 2012 1927 1227 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 7 12 1898 1266 566 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 6 12 1697 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 5 11 492 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 5 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 4 9 492 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NW 4 10 492 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NW 5 11 492 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NW 5 11 492 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 12 492 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 13 492 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 14 492 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NW 7 13 492 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 NW 7 11 492 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 NW 8 10 1840 816 116 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 66 68 NW 9 11 1958 1836 1136 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 69 73 WNW 10 12 2076 2011 1311 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 71 77 WNW 11 13 2162 2097 1397 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 72 80 WNW 12 13 2350 2161 1461 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 72 80 WNW 12 14 2350 2161 1461 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 72 80 WNW 12 14 2350 2161 1461 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 71 78 WNW 12 14 2203 2118 1418 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 70 75 WNW 12 14 2119 2054 1354 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 69 72 WNW 12 14 2055 1987 1287 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 67 68 WNW 11 15 1958 1836 1136 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 10 17 1840 816 116 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 9 18 1274 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 NW 8 16 492 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 14 492 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 12 492 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]