Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NE 7 15 623 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NE 7 15 623 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NE 6 14 623 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 13 623 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 6 14 623 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 14 623 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 14 623 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 15 623 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 ENE 6 14 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 10 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 NE 6 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 67 ENE 6 7 797 700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 74 ENE 7 8 1181 1015 315 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 76 78 ENE 6 7 2394 1299 599 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 78 79 ENE 4 4 3295 1616 916 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 79 79 NE 3 3 3295 1616 916 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 79 79 NNE 2 2 3295 1616 916 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 75 75 NNE 2 5 1305 1070 370 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 70 NE 2 5 961 796 96 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 2 5 742 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 E 2 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 E 2 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 E 2 4 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 ESE 2 4 623 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 ESE 2 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 2 5 623 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 2 5 623 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SSE 2 4 623 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 2 4 623 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 1 2 623 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 2 4 623 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 S 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 3 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 SW 4 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 SSW 4 5 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 SW 5 6 687 700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 WSW 8 9 797 700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 68 WSW 8 10 851 700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 66 WSW 10 11 742 700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 10 12 687 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 9 13 623 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 10 623 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 SW 4 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 SW 4 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 2 5 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NW 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NNW 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NNW 2 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NNW 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 2 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NNW 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 4 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 4 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 N 4 9 623 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 11 623 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 11 623 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 10 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 N 6 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NNE 5 6 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 52 NNE 7 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 56 NNE 8 9 623 700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 58 NNE 9 10 623 700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 N 9 10 623 700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 60 N 9 11 623 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 12 623 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 NNW 9 13 623 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 5 11 623 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 NNE 4 9 623 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 NNE 3 7 623 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 4 8 623 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 5 12 623 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NNE 4 10 623 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]