Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 63 W 9 904 846 146 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 65 66 W 9 962 904 204 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 67 W 9 982 923 223 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 66 67 W 10 982 923 223 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 65 66 W 10 962 904 204 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 64 64 W 10 924 865 165 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 885 826 126 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 62 W 8 885 826 126 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 64 65 W 8 943 884 184 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 65 66 W 8 962 904 204 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 65 66 W 7 962 904 204 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 64 65 W 7 943 884 184 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 63 63 W 7 904 846 146 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 61 61 NE 10 865 807 107 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 58 58 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 NE 14 943 884 184 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 68 70 NE 14 1060 981 281 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 69 71 NE 14 1088 1005 305 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 69 71 NE 12 1088 1005 305 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 68 69 NE 12 1033 962 262 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 67 67 NE 12 982 923 223 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 64 64 NW 12 924 865 165 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 60 60 NW 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 64 NE 15 924 865 165 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 66 68 NE 15 1005 942 242 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 67 69 NE 15 1033 962 262 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 67 69 N 9 1033 962 262 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 66 67 N 9 982 923 223 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 65 65 N 9 943 884 184 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 63 63 NW 9 904 846 146 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 N 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 64 NE 14 924 865 165 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 66 68 NE 14 1005 942 242 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 67 69 NE 14 1033 962 262 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 69 NW 10 1033 962 262 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 66 67 NW 10 982 923 223 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 65 65 NW 10 943 884 184 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 63 63 NW 10 904 846 146 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 NE 15 904 846 146 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 65 67 NE 15 982 923 223 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 66 68 NE 15 1005 942 242 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 66 68 N 13 1005 942 242 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 65 66 N 13 962 904 204 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 64 64 N 13 924 865 165 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 62 62 N 10 885 826 126 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 59 59 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]