Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 N 12 345 700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 60 60 N 12 575 700 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 12 1204 837 137 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 67 70 NW 13 1447 1079 379 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 68 72 NW 13 1690 1321 621 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 66 70 NW 13 1447 1079 379 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 67 71 W 14 1568 1200 500 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 67 70 W 14 1447 1079 379 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 66 67 W 14 1083 728 28 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 65 65 N 14 840 700 0 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 14 730 700 0 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 14 610 700 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 13 575 700 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 59 59 N 13 540 700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 13 505 700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 8 470 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 8 470 700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 8 470 700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 7 435 700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 7 435 700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 55 55 NW 7 400 700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 10 400 700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 10 369 700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 10 369 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 56 56 N 12 435 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 64 64 N 12 730 700 0 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 70 72 N 12 1690 1321 621 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 71 74 NW 10 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 72 76 NW 10 3118 1805 1105 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 70 74 NW 10 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 70 74 N 12 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 70 73 N 12 1811 1442 742 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 69 70 N 12 1447 1079 379 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 68 68 N 13 1204 837 137 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 13 961 700 0 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 63 63 N 13 681 700 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 13 610 700 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 13 575 700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 59 59 N 13 540 700 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 505 700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 9 470 700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 9 505 700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 9 470 700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 9 470 700 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 9 435 700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 400 700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 400 700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 369 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 56 56 NE 10 435 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 65 65 NE 10 840 700 0 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 72 74 NE 10 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 74 77 NE 15 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 75 79 NE 15 3680 3100 2400 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 73 77 NE 15 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 73 77 NE 15 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 73 76 NE 15 3118 1805 1105 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 72 73 NE 15 1811 1442 742 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 71 71 N 12 1568 1200 500 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 68 68 N 12 1204 837 137 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 64 64 N 12 730 700 0 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 62 62 N 12 646 700 0 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 61 61 N 12 610 700 0 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 12 575 700 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 59 59 NE 7 540 700 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 7 505 700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 7 505 700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 57 57 NE 7 470 700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 58 58 NE 7 505 700 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 435 700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 400 700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 400 700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 9 369 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 435 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 68 68 NE 9 1204 837 137 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 76 78 NE 9 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 78 81 N 13 4033 3473 2773 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 79 83 N 13 4357 3845 3145 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 76 80 N 13 3866 3287 2587 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 77 81 N 13 4033 3473 2773 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 77 80 N 13 3866 3287 2587 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 76 77 N 13 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 74 74 NW 13 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 72 72 NW 13 1690 1321 621 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 67 67 NW 13 1083 728 28 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 13 840 700 0 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 13 681 700 0 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 62 62 NW 13 646 700 0 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 610 700 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 6 575 700 0 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 575 700 0 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 540 700 0 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 540 700 0 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 505 700 0 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 470 700 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 435 700 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 400 700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 470 700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 961 700 0 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 73 75 N 8 2930 1684 984 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 75 78 N 13 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 76 80 N 13 3866 3287 2587 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 73 77 N 13 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 74 78 N 13 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 74 77 N 13 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 73 74 N 13 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 71 71 NW 13 1568 1200 500 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 69 69 NW 13 1325 958 258 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 64 64 NW 13 730 700 0 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 62 62 NW 13 646 700 0 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 60 60 NW 13 575 700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 59 59 NW 13 540 700 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 7 505 700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 7 470 700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 7 470 700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 435 700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 435 700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 400 700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 369 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 345 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 369 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 65 65 NE 6 840 700 0 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 73 75 NE 6 2930 1684 984 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 75 78 E 9 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 76 80 E 9 3866 3287 2587 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 74 78 E 9 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 74 78 E 9 3493 2914 2214 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 74 77 E 9 3306 2403 1703 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 73 74 E 9 2522 1563 863 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 1690 1321 621 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 1325 958 258 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 840 700 0 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 681 700 0 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 646 700 0 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 610 700 0 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 60 60 NE 6 575 700 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 NE 6 540 700 0 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 59 59 NE 6 540 700 0 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 58 58 NE 6 505 700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 59 59 NE 6 540 700 0 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 57 57 NE 6 470 700 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]