Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 3 5 3958 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 N 3 3 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 3 4 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 5 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 3 5 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SW 4 8 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 S 3 5 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 S 3 5 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 N 1 2 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 66 69 WSW 2 3 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 67 72 SW 3 5 5368 4600 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 68 75 SW 5 9 6736 5356 756 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 71 79 SSW 8 12 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 73 81 SSW 10 17 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 76 84 SW 11 18 10022 8610 4010 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 77 84 SW 11 18 10022 8610 4010 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 77 82 SW 10 17 9267 8221 3621 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 76 79 SW 10 17 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 75 76 SW 8 12 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 10 5613 4600 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 5 10 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 11 3958 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 N 8 13 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 NE 9 16 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 ENE 10 17 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 ESE 10 17 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SE 9 16 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 6 11 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 5 10 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 3 5 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 4 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 2 4 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 WSW 3 5 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 66 WSW 5 10 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 SW 8 13 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 66 72 SW 10 19 5368 4600 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 68 75 SW 11 19 6736 5356 756 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 71 78 SW 11 19 8052 6657 2057 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 79 SW 11 20 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 74 79 SSW 12 20 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 75 79 S 12 20 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 74 77 S 12 12 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 72 73 SE 11 12 5613 4600 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 70 70 NE 9 12 4395 4600 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 68 68 N 8 14 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 68 68 NNE 9 14 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 68 68 NE 10 14 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 11 17 4103 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NE 10 17 3958 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 NE 8 17 3620 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NNE 5 10 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 5 10 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 5 10 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 6 11 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 11 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 6 11 3579 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 WNW 6 10 3958 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 69 W 6 10 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 66 71 SW 5 10 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 67 74 SW 5 5 5857 5112 512 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 69 77 SW 4 5 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 72 81 SW 3 5 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 74 82 SW 3 3 9267 8221 3621 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 75 81 SW 2 3 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 76 81 SW 2 3 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 76 79 WSW 3 6 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 75 76 W 4 6 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 6 6 5613 4600 0 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 71 71 NNW 5 8 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 71 71 NNW 5 8 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 71 71 NNW 5 8 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 71 71 NE 4 5 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NE 4 5 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 70 70 NE 4 5 4395 4600 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 4 4 4395 4600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 4 4 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 4 4 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 5 6 4247 4600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 5 6 4395 4600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 71 71 ENE 5 6 5123 4600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 72 73 SW 2 5 5613 4600 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 73 76 SW 2 5 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 74 79 SW 2 5 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 75 82 WSW 4 9 9267 8221 3621 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 78 86 WSW 4 9 10793 9636 5036 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 81 90 WSW 4 9 13194 11280 6680 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 83 91 W 5 12 13737 11885 7285 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 85 92 W 5 12 14262 12465 7865 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 85 90 W 5 12 13194 11280 6680 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 85 88 W 5 11 12045 10275 5675 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 83 84 W 5 11 10022 8610 4010 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 5 11 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 78 78 NW 2 6 8052 6657 2057 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 77 77 NW 2 6 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 77 77 NW 2 6 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 77 77 NE 5 5 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 NE 5 5 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 76 76 NE 5 5 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 75 75 ENE 4 6 6736 5356 756 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 74 74 ENE 4 6 5857 5112 512 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 74 74 ENE 4 6 5857 5112 512 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 74 74 ENE 5 8 5857 5112 512 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 75 75 ENE 5 8 6736 5356 756 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 76 76 ENE 5 8 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 78 79 SSE 2 5 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 79 82 SSE 2 5 9267 8221 3621 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 80 85 SSE 2 5 10331 9153 4553 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 81 88 WSW 4 9 12045 10275 5675 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 83 91 WSW 4 9 13737 11885 7285 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 86 95 WSW 4 9 15601 14084 9484 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 88 96 WSW 5 11 15961 14589 9989 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 89 96 WSW 5 11 15961 14589 9989 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 90 95 WSW 5 11 15601 14084 9484 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 89 92 W 6 10 14262 12465 7865 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 87 88 W 6 10 12045 10275 5675 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 6 10 10022 8610 4010 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 81 81 NW 2 5 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 80 80 NW 2 5 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 80 80 NW 2 5 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 80 80 ENE 4 6 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 ENE 4 6 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 79 79 ENE 4 6 8249 7211 2611 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 78 78 ENE 4 6 8052 6657 2057 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 77 77 ENE 4 6 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 4 6 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 76 76 E 5 8 7261 5599 999 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 77 77 E 5 8 7715 5841 1241 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 78 78 E 5 8 8052 6657 2057 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 79 80 S 2 5 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 80 83 S 2 5 9698 8416 3816 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 81 86 S 2 5 10793 9636 5036 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 82 89 WSW 4 9 12631 10645 6045 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 84 92 WSW 4 9 14262 12465 7865 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 86 94 WSW 4 9 15235 13563 8963 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 88 95 W 5 10 15601 14084 9484 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 89 94 W 5 10 15235 13563 8963 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 89 93 W 5 10 14772 13024 8424 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 88 90 W 5 11 13194 11280 6680 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 86 87 W 5 11 11433 9957 5357 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 5 11 9698 8416 3816 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 81 81 NNW 3 8 8641 8026 3426 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 80 80 NNW 3 8 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 80 80 NNW 3 8 8445 7659 3059 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]