Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 2 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 3 5 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 3 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 E 2 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 2 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SSE 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SSW 2 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 SW 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 WSW 3 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 47 WSW 4 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 W 5 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 47 49 WSW 5 10 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 48 50 WSW 5 10 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 48 50 WSW 6 11 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 51 53 WSW 6 10 5746 5239 639 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 50 51 W 6 10 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 10 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 50 50 W 5 9 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 8 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 WNW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 NNW 5 6 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 4 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NNW 4 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 ENE 3 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NW 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 S 3 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 2 3 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 3 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 WSW 4 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 46 WSW 5 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 46 WSW 8 12 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 47 WSW 8 12 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 49 WSW 8 12 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 47 49 W 8 11 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 48 50 W 8 11 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 48 49 W 8 11 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 10 12 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 10 12 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 10 12 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 WNW 9 9 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 9 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 9 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 4 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 4 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 4 4 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 44 WSW 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 43 W 11 13 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 45 W 11 13 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 45 W 11 13 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 45 W 9 12 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 45 W 9 12 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 W 9 12 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 W 11 17 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 W 11 17 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 W 11 17 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 WNW 8 11 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 WNW 8 11 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 WNW 8 11 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NW 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NW 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NW 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 E 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 5 5 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 44 SW 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 45 SW 5 6 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 48 SW 5 6 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 49 WSW 11 13 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 45 50 WSW 11 13 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 47 53 WSW 11 13 5746 5239 639 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 48 51 WSW 10 14 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 49 51 WSW 10 14 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 50 51 WSW 10 14 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 50 51 W 8 13 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 13 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 49 49 W 8 13 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 13 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 13 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 13 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 9 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 5 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 5 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 SSE 5 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 SSE 5 8 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 49 51 SSE 5 8 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 49 53 SSE 5 8 5746 5239 639 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 50 56 W 10 16 6748 5739 1139 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 51 58 W 10 16 7019 6536 1936 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 53 61 W 10 16 8550 7008 2408 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 54 60 W 10 16 7919 6873 2273 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 55 60 W 10 16 7919 6873 2273 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 56 59 W 10 16 7258 6737 2137 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 56 57 WNW 8 14 6884 6325 1725 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 8 14 6550 5572 972 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 8 14 6338 5406 806 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 14 5579 5072 472 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 8 14 5411 4668 68 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 8 14 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 6 8 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 ENE 6 8 5075 4600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 48 48 ENE 6 8 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 ENE 6 8 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 ENE 6 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 ENE 6 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 5 8 4124 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 SSE 5 8 4674 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 SSE 5 8 5243 4600 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 51 52 SSE 5 8 5579 5072 472 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 52 54 SSE 5 8 6338 5406 806 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 52 56 SSE 5 8 6748 5739 1139 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 53 59 W 9 14 7258 6737 2137 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 55 62 W 9 14 9155 7196 2596 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 56 64 W 9 14 10283 8467 3867 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 58 64 W 9 14 10283 8467 3867 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 59 64 W 9 14 10283 8467 3867 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 59 62 W 9 14 9155 7196 2596 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 59 61 WNW 8 13 8550 7008 2408 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 8 13 7019 6536 1936 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 8 13 6748 5739 1139 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 8 13 6338 5406 806 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 8 13 5746 5239 639 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 8 13 5746 5239 639 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]