Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 SW 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 56 W 6 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 60 W 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 61 W 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 60 W 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 7 4232 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 58 W 7 4061 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 W 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 SW 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 57 SW 6 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 59 SW 6 4232 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 60 SW 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 60 W 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 59 W 6 4232 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 57 W 6 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 NE 3 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 NE 5 3901 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 63 SW 3 5831 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 62 66 SW 3 7262 5807 1207 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 64 68 SW 3 8130 6781 2181 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 65 69 W 5 8552 7222 2622 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 66 69 W 5 8552 7222 2622 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 66 67 W 5 7700 6331 1731 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 3 6815 4851 251 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 3 5831 4600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 3 4860 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 E 5 5831 4600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 64 66 E 5 7262 5807 1207 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 66 69 SW 3 8552 7222 2622 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 67 71 SW 3 9447 8079 3479 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 68 72 SW 3 9645 8496 3896 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 69 73 W 6 9754 8931 4331 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 69 72 W 6 9645 8496 3896 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 69 70 W 6 8997 7654 3054 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 8130 6781 2181 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 5 7262 5807 1207 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 6360 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 62 62 NE 3 4860 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NE 3 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 NE 3 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 NE 5 6815 4851 251 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 65 68 SW 3 8130 6781 2181 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 66 70 SW 3 8997 7654 3054 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 67 71 SW 3 9447 8079 3479 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 68 72 SW 6 9645 8496 3896 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 69 72 SW 6 9645 8496 3896 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 69 70 SW 6 8997 7654 3054 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 68 68 W 3 8130 6781 2181 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 3 7262 5807 1207 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 3 6360 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 62 62 E 3 4860 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 E 3 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 E 3 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 5 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 E 6 4403 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 E 6 6815 4851 251 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 65 67 SW 5 7700 6331 1731 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 66 69 SW 5 8552 7222 2622 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 67 70 SW 5 8997 7654 3054 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 68 71 W 6 9447 8079 3479 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 69 71 W 6 9447 8079 3479 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 6 8997 7654 3054 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 8130 6781 2181 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 7262 5807 1207 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 6360 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 62 62 NE 6 4860 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 E 6 4573 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]