Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Thu 71 71 SE 3 4 6152 4600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 71 71 ESE 3 4 6152 4600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 71 71 SE 3 5 6152 4600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 73 74 S 3 5 7175 6123 1523 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 72 75 SSW 4 8 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 72 77 SW 5 10 7856 7156 2556 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 73 80 SW 6 12 8530 7831 3231 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 73 81 SW 8 13 8753 8055 3455 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 74 83 WSW 8 14 10351 8500 3900 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 76 84 WSW 9 16 11070 8722 4122 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 77 84 W 10 17 11070 8722 4122 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 77 82 W 10 17 8975 8278 3678 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 77 80 W 10 16 8530 7831 3231 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 76 77 WNW 10 17 7856 7156 2556 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 9 14 7175 6123 1523 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 70 70 NW 6 12 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 68 68 N 5 9 4523 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 4 6 4523 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 SE 2 4 4523 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 SE 2 4 4367 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 2 4 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 S 2 4 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SSE 2 3 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 2 3 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SSE 2 3 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SSE 2 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 S 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 61 SSW 4 8 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 62 SW 5 10 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 66 SW 6 11 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 69 WSW 8 13 5077 4600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 63 72 WSW 8 14 6668 5065 465 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 64 72 WSW 9 14 6668 5065 465 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 66 73 W 9 14 6947 5601 1001 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 66 71 W 9 14 6152 4600 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 66 69 W 9 14 5077 4600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 65 66 WNW 9 14 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 9 14 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 8 13 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 6 12 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 10 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SSE 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SE 2 3 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SE 2 3 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 3 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 52 WSW 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 53 WSW 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 55 WSW 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 57 WSW 6 11 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 60 WSW 6 11 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 63 WSW 6 11 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 64 W 9 16 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 65 W 9 16 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 64 W 9 16 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 63 W 10 16 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 60 W 10 16 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 16 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 6 12 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 6 12 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 6 12 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 2 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 57 SW 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 59 SW 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 61 SW 3 5 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 64 SW 5 11 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 66 SW 5 11 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 69 SW 5 11 5077 4600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 62 70 WSW 6 12 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 63 70 WSW 6 12 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 65 70 WSW 6 12 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 65 68 W 5 11 4523 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 5 11 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 11 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 8 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 4 8 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 4 8 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 ENE 4 8 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 ENE 4 8 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 4 8 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 4 6 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 3 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 3 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 3 4 3531 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 SW 3 6 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 64 SW 3 6 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 66 SW 3 6 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 69 WSW 5 10 5077 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 64 72 WSW 5 10 6668 5065 465 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 66 75 WSW 5 10 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 68 76 WSW 6 12 7630 6929 2329 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 69 75 WSW 6 12 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 70 75 WSW 6 12 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 70 72 WSW 5 11 6668 5065 465 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 69 70 WSW 5 11 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 5 11 4367 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 4 8 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 4 8 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 4 8 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 ENE 4 6 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 ENE 4 6 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 4 6 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 3 5 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 3 5 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 3 5 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 E 3 4 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 3 4 3587 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 E 3 4 3743 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 SW 3 5 3900 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 SW 3 5 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 67 SW 3 5 4367 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 70 WSW 5 10 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 66 73 WSW 5 10 6947 5601 1001 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 68 75 WSW 5 10 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 70 78 WSW 6 13 8081 7381 2781 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 71 78 WSW 6 13 8081 7381 2781 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 72 77 WSW 6 13 7856 7156 2556 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 72 75 W 5 11 7403 6632 2032 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 71 72 W 5 11 6668 5065 465 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 70 70 W 5 11 5622 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 4 8 4523 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 WNW 4 8 4367 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 4 8 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 ENE 4 5 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 ENE 4 5 4211 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 4 5 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 3 4 4056 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 3 4 4056 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]