Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NE 4 8 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 E 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 E 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 ENE 6 9 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 ENE 6 9 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 ENE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 NE 4 5 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 N 3 4 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 75 79 NW 3 4 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 77 82 W 4 5 6656 6202 1602 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 78 84 WNW 5 8 7234 6496 1896 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 79 84 W 5 8 7234 6496 1896 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 80 84 WSW 5 8 7234 6496 1896 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 81 84 WSW 6 9 7234 6496 1896 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 80 81 W 5 8 6508 6055 1455 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 77 77 NW 2 3 5918 5457 857 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 72 72 E 5 8 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 70 SE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 71 71 SE 6 9 3629 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 SSE 4 5 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 SSE 5 8 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SSE 6 9 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 SSE 5 8 3629 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 SSE 5 8 3629 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 9 12 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 9 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 SSE 6 9 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SSE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 SSE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 S 3 4 4959 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 76 SSW 3 4 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 76 80 SW 5 8 6361 5908 1308 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 78 83 SW 9 12 6935 6349 1749 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 79 85 SW 9 12 7531 6642 2042 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 79 84 WSW 9 12 7234 6496 1896 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 79 83 WSW 9 12 6935 6349 1749 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 79 81 WSW 9 12 6508 6055 1455 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 78 79 W 8 10 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 8 10 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 5 8 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 6 9 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 2 3 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SE 8 10 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 E 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 E 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 E 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 ENE 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 71 ENE 3 5 3629 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 75 WSW 3 8 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 73 78 WSW 3 8 6066 5614 1014 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 74 79 WSW 3 8 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 75 80 WSW 5 11 6361 5908 1308 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 76 80 WSW 5 11 6361 5908 1308 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 76 78 WSW 5 11 6066 5614 1014 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 5 10 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 5 10 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 10 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 NE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 NE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 NE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 ENE 4 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 ENE 4 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 4 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 5 8 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 E 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 E 4 6 3629 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 75 E 4 6 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 74 78 WSW 3 8 6066 5614 1014 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 76 81 WSW 3 8 6508 6055 1455 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 77 83 WSW 3 8 6935 6349 1749 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 78 83 WSW 6 11 6935 6349 1749 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 79 83 WSW 6 11 6935 6349 1749 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 79 81 WSW 6 11 6508 6055 1455 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 78 79 W 6 10 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 10 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 6 10 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 NE 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 NE 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 NE 4 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 3 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 5 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 E 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 E 3 6 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 72 E 3 6 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 74 SW 3 8 5471 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 72 76 SW 3 8 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 74 78 SW 3 8 6066 5614 1014 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 75 79 WSW 6 11 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 76 79 WSW 6 11 6213 5761 1161 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 76 78 WSW 6 11 6066 5614 1014 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 75 76 WSW 6 10 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 6 10 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 6 10 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 NE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 NE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 NE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 ENE 2 3 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 ENE 2 3 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 2 3 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 3 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 4 5 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 E 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 70 E 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 72 SW 3 6 4325 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 74 SW 3 6 5471 4600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 72 76 SW 3 6 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 73 76 WSW 6 10 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 73 76 WSW 6 10 5770 4953 353 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 73 75 WSW 6 10 5623 4600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 5 10 4959 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 10 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 10 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 NE 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 NE 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 NE 2 4 3481 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]