Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 ENE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 3 6 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 7 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 E 3 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 2 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 E 1 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 SW 2 3 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 62 WSW 3 3 6633 5164 564 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 62 64 WSW 3 3 7553 6134 1534 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 64 66 WSW 3 4 8635 7062 2462 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 65 66 WSW 3 3 8635 7062 2462 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 3 3 7999 6603 2003 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 3 3 7999 6603 2003 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 1 2 7097 5655 1055 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 60 60 ENE 2 5 5671 4600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 60 60 ENE 3 7 5671 4600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 59 59 ENE 4 8 5173 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 ENE 4 8 5173 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 E 4 9 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 ENE 3 7 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 ENE 3 7 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 4 9 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 4 9 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 5 10 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 8 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 5 10 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 9 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 3 8 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 ENE 5 11 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 E 4 9 5671 4600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 66 67 WSW 2 3 9313 7511 2911 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 3 6633 5164 564 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 71 73 SSW 4 4 11515 10372 5772 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 73 75 SSW 5 6 12208 11086 6486 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 68 69 SSW 6 7 10176 8546 3946 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 7 8 11161 10135 5535 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 7 9 10441 9215 4615 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 4 7 7553 6134 1534 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 0 1 6157 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 6 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 8 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NE 2 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 1 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 ENE 2 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 ENE 2 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 1 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 7 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 1 2 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 E 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 ESE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 SSE 2 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 SSW 2 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 51 SW 4 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 58 SW 4 5 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 SW 3 4 3981 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 4 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 4 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 4 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 47 47 W 3 4 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 4 7 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 NNW 1 3 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 2 6 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NE 2 6 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NE 2 5 2717 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 ENE 3 6 2717 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]