Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 ENE 10 12 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 10 12 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 11 14 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 11 14 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 11 14 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 10 12 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 10 12 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 10 12 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 SE 12 19 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 SE 12 19 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 79 SE 12 19 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 78 82 SE 11 17 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 80 85 SE 11 17 6153 5702 2602 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 83 89 SE 11 17 6794 6281 3181 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 85 90 WSW 10 16 7089 6426 3326 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 85 89 WSW 10 16 6794 6281 3181 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 85 88 WSW 10 16 6589 6137 3037 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 84 85 S 3 4 6153 5702 2602 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 84 84 S 3 4 6007 5557 2457 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 82 82 S 3 4 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 82 82 S 3 4 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 81 81 S 3 4 5570 4092 992 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 80 80 S 3 4 5379 3462 362 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 78 78 ENE 6 8 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 ENE 6 8 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 76 76 ENE 6 8 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 NNE 4 5 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 75 75 NNE 4 5 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 74 NNE 4 5 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 NNE 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 NNE 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 NNE 4 5 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 76 NNE 4 5 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 79 NNE 4 5 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 80 84 SW 5 9 6007 5557 2457 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 82 87 SW 5 9 6443 5992 2892 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 85 90 SW 5 9 7089 6426 3326 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 87 92 WSW 8 12 7673 6755 3655 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 87 91 WSW 8 12 7382 6571 3471 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 87 89 WSW 8 12 6794 6281 3181 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 86 87 WSW 8 12 6443 5992 2892 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 8 12 6298 5847 2747 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 8 12 5862 5356 2256 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 8 12 5862 5356 2256 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 8 12 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 8 12 5379 3462 362 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 78 78 NNE 2 2 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 NNE 2 2 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 NNE 2 2 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 2 2 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 2 2 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 NNE 2 2 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 2 2 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NNE 2 2 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 NNE 2 2 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 NNE 2 2 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 NNE 2 2 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 76 NNE 2 2 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 79 SW 5 9 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 76 81 SW 5 9 5570 4092 992 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 78 83 SW 5 9 5862 5356 2256 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 80 85 SW 5 9 6153 5702 2602 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 80 84 SW 5 9 6007 5557 2457 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 80 82 SW 5 9 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 79 80 WSW 9 13 5379 3462 362 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 9 13 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 9 13 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 9 13 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 9 13 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 9 13 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 NE 5 6 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 NE 5 6 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 NE 5 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 NE 5 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 NE 5 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 NE 5 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 6 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 6 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 6 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 3 4 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 E 3 4 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 E 3 4 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 77 SSW 6 9 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 80 SSW 6 9 5379 3462 362 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 77 82 SSW 6 9 5716 4739 1639 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 79 84 SW 8 10 6007 5557 2457 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 79 83 SW 8 10 5862 5356 2256 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 79 81 SW 8 10 5570 4092 992 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 78 79 WSW 9 12 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 9 12 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 9 12 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 8 10 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 8 10 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 8 10 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 5 8 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 NNW 5 8 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 N 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 W 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 69 W 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 72 W 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 75 SSW 5 8 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 74 78 SSW 5 8 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 76 81 SSW 5 8 5570 4092 992 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 77 81 SW 8 10 5570 4092 992 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 77 80 SW 8 10 5379 3462 362 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 77 79 SW 8 10 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 76 77 WSW 9 12 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 9 12 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 9 12 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 10 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 10 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 10 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 NW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 NNW 5 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 N 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 4 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 4 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 4 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 70 S 3 4 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 74 SW 5 8 2879 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 77 SW 5 8 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 74 79 SW 5 8 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 75 79 SW 8 10 4782 3268 168 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 75 78 SW 8 10 4123 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 75 77 SW 8 10 3468 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 75 76 WSW 9 12 3272 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 9 12 3076 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 9 12 2682 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 10 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 10 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 10 2546 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]