Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 57 57 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 63 SW 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 65 SW 7 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 66 SW 7 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 68 W 8 2774 3100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 67 68 W 8 2774 3100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 NW 8 1430 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 W 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 E 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 E 5 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 E 5 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 E 5 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 56 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 58 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 60 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 61 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 61 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 59 SW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 57 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NE 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NE 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 E 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 E 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 E 8 1430 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 NE 9 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 65 NE 9 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 NE 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 NW 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 NW 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 13 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 E 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 E 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 66 E 7 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 67 W 7 2507 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 67 W 7 2507 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 NW 7 1430 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 NW 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 W 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 64 W 6 1430 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 W 6 2507 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 68 W 7 2774 3100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 67 68 W 7 2774 3100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 9 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 59 E 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 63 E 7 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 65 E 7 1793 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 66 SW 7 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 66 SW 7 2152 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 64 SW 7 1430 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 NW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 NW 6 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NE 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 12 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 1398 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]