Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 3 7 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 NW 2 6 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NW 2 5 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 NW 2 6 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NW 3 7 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 8 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 3 6 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 WSW 3 4 3098 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 SSW 2 3 3573 3287 187 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 70 73 SSW 4 4 4222 3572 472 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 71 76 SSW 5 5 5316 4216 1116 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 72 79 SW 6 7 6520 5299 2199 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 73 82 SW 6 8 7995 6425 3325 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 73 82 SW 7 8 7995 6425 3325 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 74 83 SW 8 9 8190 7081 3981 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 73 80 SW 8 9 7140 5539 2439 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 72 77 SW 8 10 5559 4358 1258 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 72 75 WSW 8 10 4794 4074 974 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 70 71 WSW 7 9 3936 3382 282 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 6 9 3478 3193 93 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 5 8 3383 3100 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 4 7 3288 3100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 4 6 3193 3100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 3 6 2971 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 SSW 2 4 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 3 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 1 2 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 1 2 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 1 3 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 1 3 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 3 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 SE 2 3 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 SSW 2 3 3383 3100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 69 72 SSW 4 4 4079 3477 377 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 71 76 SSW 5 6 5316 4216 1116 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 73 80 SW 6 7 7140 5539 2439 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 82 SW 7 8 7995 6425 3325 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 73 82 SW 7 8 7995 6425 3325 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 74 83 WSW 8 9 8190 7081 3981 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 74 81 WSW 8 9 7591 5779 2679 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 74 79 WSW 8 9 6520 5299 2199 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 74 77 WSW 8 9 5559 4358 1258 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 71 72 W 7 9 4079 3477 377 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 9 3478 3193 93 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 5 9 3193 3100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 9 3098 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 NNW 4 9 2971 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 4 9 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NNW 4 8 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NNW 3 7 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NNW 3 6 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 2 6 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 2 5 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 NNW 2 5 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 2 4 2897 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 W 2 3 3193 3100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 71 72 WSW 2 3 4079 3477 377 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 73 76 WSW 4 4 5316 4216 1116 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 75 80 SW 5 6 7140 5539 2439 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 77 84 SW 6 7 8385 7526 4426 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 78 87 SW 7 8 9585 8351 5251 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 79 88 WSW 8 9 9906 8544 5444 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 79 88 WSW 8 10 9906 8544 5444 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 80 87 WSW 9 10 9585 8351 5251 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 81 86 WSW 9 10 9048 8158 5058 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 81 84 WSW 9 10 8385 7526 4426 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 79 80 W 8 11 7140 5539 2439 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 7 12 5316 4216 1116 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 13 4364 3932 832 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 73 73 NW 6 12 4222 3572 472 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 72 72 NW 5 10 4079 3477 377 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 70 70 NNW 4 9 3573 3287 187 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]