Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 6 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 N 3 7 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 3 7 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NNE 4 8 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 4 8 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NE 4 8 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NE 3 7 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 2 5 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 2 5 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 NE 1 3 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 N 1 2 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 SE 1 1 2913 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 SSE 4 5 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 SSW 4 5 4183 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 68 SW 6 7 4593 3338 238 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 67 WSW 6 7 4183 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 7 8 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 9 3343 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 9 2913 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 8 14 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 18 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NW 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 NW 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NW 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 8 18 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 9 20 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NNW 9 19 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NNW 9 19 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NNW 9 20 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 10 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 10 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 10 22 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 NNW 10 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 NNW 9 11 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 66 NW 9 11 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 68 NW 9 10 4593 3338 238 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 70 WNW 10 11 5322 4167 1067 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 66 66 NW 12 14 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 67 NW 14 16 4183 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 65 NW 13 15 3343 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 64 NNW 13 15 2913 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 12 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 NW 12 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NW 11 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 NNW 11 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 NNW 10 22 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NNW 9 19 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NNW 10 21 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NNW 11 23 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 20 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 18 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 8 17 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 N 8 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 N 7 12 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 57 NNE 6 7 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 60 N 4 4 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 67 NNW 3 3 4183 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 68 WNW 2 3 4593 3338 238 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 66 WNW 1 1 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 68 68 S 1 1 4593 3338 238 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 66 ESE 0 0 3766 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 59 ENE 2 2 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 NE 4 9 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 6 14 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 8 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 8 18 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 8 16 2680 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NNE 6 14 2680 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]