Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 21 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 N 21 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 N 21 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 N 16 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 N 16 3364 3100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 70 72 N 16 5360 4263 1163 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 75 78 SW 16 8115 6781 3681 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 76 80 SW 16 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 81 85 SW 16 9951 9603 6503 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 83 87 N 24 10166 9818 6718 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 82 85 N 24 9951 9603 6503 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 83 84 N 24 9843 9296 6196 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 80 80 E 28 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 78 78 E 28 8115 6781 3681 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 77 77 E 28 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 30 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 72 72 N 30 5360 4263 1163 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 68 68 N 30 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 67 67 N 33 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 N 33 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 67 67 N 33 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 67 67 N 35 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 67 67 N 35 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 35 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 25 3364 3100 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 63 63 NE 25 3171 3100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 65 65 NE 25 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 63 63 NE 26 3171 3100 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 68 69 NE 26 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 72 74 NE 26 6399 4595 1495 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 74 77 NE 10 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 75 79 NE 10 8525 7209 4109 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 78 82 NE 10 9628 8448 5348 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 79 83 NE 12 9736 8864 5764 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 78 81 NE 12 9391 8042 4942 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 79 80 NE 12 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 76 76 NE 18 7273 5840 2740 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 75 75 NE 18 6840 5313 2213 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 74 74 NE 18 6399 4595 1495 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 71 71 NE 18 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 69 69 NE 18 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 66 66 NE 18 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 65 65 NE 15 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NE 15 3364 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 65 65 NE 15 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 66 66 NE 15 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 65 65 NE 15 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 64 64 NE 15 3364 3100 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 63 63 NE 7 3171 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 62 62 NE 7 2976 3100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 63 63 NE 7 3171 3100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 62 62 NE 7 2976 3100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 65 66 NE 7 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 69 71 NE 7 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 70 73 W 8 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 71 75 W 8 6840 5313 2213 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 77 W 8 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 74 78 W 8 8115 6781 3681 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 74 77 W 8 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 74 75 W 8 6840 5313 2213 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 73 73 NW 8 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 73 73 NW 8 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 5360 4263 1163 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 71 71 NW 8 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 71 71 NW 8 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 4439 3931 831 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 68 68 NE 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 68 68 NE 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 72 73 NE 8 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 75 77 NE 8 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 77 80 W 10 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 78 82 W 10 9628 8448 5348 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 80 84 W 10 9843 9296 6196 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 81 85 W 10 9951 9603 6503 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 81 84 W 10 9843 9296 6196 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 81 82 W 10 9628 8448 5348 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 79 79 NW 12 8525 7209 4109 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 77 77 NW 12 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 12 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 74 74 NW 12 6399 4595 1495 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 12 5360 4263 1163 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 70 70 NW 12 4439 3931 831 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 69 69 N 8 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 N 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 69 69 N 8 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 8 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 69 69 N 8 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 68 68 N 8 4105 3552 452 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 67 67 N 8 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 67 67 N 8 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 71 72 N 8 5360 4263 1163 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 75 77 N 8 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 78 81 NW 10 9391 8042 4942 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 79 83 NW 10 9736 8864 5764 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 82 86 NW 10 10058 9711 6611 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 83 87 NW 10 10166 9818 6718 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 82 85 NW 10 9951 9603 6503 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 83 84 NW 10 9843 9296 6196 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 80 80 NW 10 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 78 78 NW 10 8115 6781 3681 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 77 77 NW 10 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 73 73 NW 10 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 71 71 NW 10 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 67 67 NW 10 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 66 66 NE 7 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 NE 7 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 67 67 NE 7 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 65 65 NE 7 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 63 63 NE 9 3171 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 2976 3100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 9 3364 3100 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 2976 3100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 68 69 NE 9 4272 3744 644 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 74 76 NE 9 7273 5840 2740 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 77 80 E 10 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 78 82 E 10 9628 8448 5348 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 82 86 E 10 10058 9711 6611 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 83 87 E 10 10166 9818 6718 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 82 85 E 10 9951 9603 6503 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 83 84 E 10 9843 9296 6196 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 80 80 N 9 8955 7629 4529 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 78 78 N 9 8115 6781 3681 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 77 77 N 9 7698 6345 3245 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 73 73 N 9 5895 4429 1329 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 71 71 N 9 4605 4097 997 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 67 67 N 9 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 9 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 9 3558 3100 0 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 67 67 NE 9 3938 3360 260 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 3751 3167 67 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 9 3558 3100 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]