Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Thu 74 74 W 9 12 5939 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 73 73 WSW 9 12 5409 4770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 75 75 WSW 8 12 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 78 80 SW 8 12 7752 7053 2283 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 81 84 SSW 9 13 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 85 90 SSW 10 14 12862 10479 5709 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 88 95 SSW 11 17 14193 13906 9136 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 90 99 SSW 13 20 14949 14249 9479 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 92 101 SW 14 23 15366 14664 9894 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 93 101 SW 16 25 15366 14664 9894 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 94 101 WSW 18 27 15366 14664 9894 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 93 98 WSW 19 29 14740 14163 9393 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 92 95 W 20 29 14193 13906 9136 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 90 91 W 20 31 13519 11242 6472 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 20 32 10634 8609 3839 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 84 84 W 21 32 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 82 82 W 20 32 8199 7501 2731 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 79 79 WNW 20 32 7527 6828 2058 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 77 77 W 19 29 7076 5903 1133 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 W 19 28 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 74 74 W 19 28 5939 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 72 72 W 18 27 4863 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 71 71 WSW 18 25 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 18 24 4310 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 W 17 24 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 18 24 4001 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 W 18 26 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 W 18 26 5939 4770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 77 80 W 18 26 7752 7053 2283 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 81 86 W 19 26 9084 8388 3618 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 84 91 WSW 18 27 13519 11242 6472 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 85 94 WSW 19 28 14107 13316 8546 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 86 95 W 20 31 14193 13906 9136 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 86 94 W 21 32 14107 13316 8546 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 86 93 W 23 34 14021 12664 7894 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 85 90 W 24 35 12862 10479 5709 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 83 86 W 24 35 9084 8388 3618 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 81 82 W 24 36 8199 7501 2731 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 24 37 7302 6412 1642 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 24 36 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 24 36 4863 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 24 36 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 24 36 4310 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 WSW 24 36 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 WSW 24 36 4001 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 24 35 3846 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 WSW 24 35 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 24 35 3536 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 23 31 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 23 31 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 23 31 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 WSW 23 32 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 70 WSW 23 32 4310 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 75 WSW 23 32 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 73 80 WSW 21 29 7752 7053 2283 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 75 84 WSW 21 29 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 76 85 WSW 21 29 8864 8168 3398 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 76 84 W 23 33 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 75 82 W 23 33 8199 7501 2731 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 74 79 W 23 33 7527 6828 2058 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 72 75 W 25 37 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 71 72 W 25 37 4863 4770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 25 37 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 24 36 4001 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 24 36 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 24 36 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 18 26 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 18 26 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 18 26 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 13 18 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 13 18 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 13 18 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 10 12 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 10 12 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 10 12 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 67 NW 9 12 3846 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 71 NW 9 12 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 75 NW 9 12 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 73 80 ESE 8 11 7752 7053 2283 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 75 84 ESE 8 11 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 77 86 ESE 8 11 9084 8388 3618 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 79 87 SSW 10 17 10634 8609 3839 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 81 88 SSW 10 17 11429 8828 4058 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 82 87 SSW 10 17 10634 8609 3839 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 82 85 WSW 12 18 8864 8168 3398 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 80 81 WSW 12 18 7976 7277 2507 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 12 18 7302 6412 1642 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 11 18 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 11 18 4863 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 11 18 4310 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 10 13 4001 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 10 13 3846 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 10 13 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 9 12 3536 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 W 9 12 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 9 12 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 8 10 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 8 10 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 W 8 10 3536 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 68 SW 5 9 4001 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 73 SW 5 9 5409 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 74 79 SW 5 9 7527 6828 2058 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 77 84 S 9 13 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 80 89 S 9 13 12168 9047 4277 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 82 91 S 9 13 13519 11242 6472 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 83 91 S 10 18 13519 11242 6472 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 84 91 S 10 18 13519 11242 6472 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 85 90 S 10 18 12862 10479 5709 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 85 88 SSW 12 19 11429 8828 4058 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 83 84 SSW 12 19 8643 7946 3176 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 81 81 SSW 12 19 7976 7277 2507 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 11 17 7302 6412 1642 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 11 17 6850 5381 611 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 11 17 5409 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 10 14 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 WSW 10 14 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 WSW 10 14 3846 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 WSW 9 11 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 11 3536 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 9 11 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 8 11 3531 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 WSW 8 11 3536 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 WSW 8 11 3691 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 SSW 6 11 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 74 SSW 6 11 5939 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 75 80 SSW 6 11 7752 7053 2283 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 78 85 S 10 14 8864 8168 3398 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 81 90 S 10 14 12862 10479 5709 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 83 92 S 10 14 13935 11975 7205 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 85 93 SSW 12 19 14021 12664 7894 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 86 93 SSW 12 19 14021 12664 7894 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 87 92 SSW 12 19 13935 11975 7205 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 86 89 SW 13 21 12168 9047 4277 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 84 85 SW 13 21 8864 8168 3398 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 13 21 8199 7501 2731 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 13 20 7527 6828 2058 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 77 77 SW 13 20 7076 5903 1133 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 13 20 6454 4844 74 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 73 73 WSW 11 17 5409 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 WSW 11 17 4465 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 17 4310 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 9 12 4156 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 9 12 3846 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]