Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 N 3 7 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 4 8 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 4 9 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 4 10 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 N 4 9 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 4 9 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NW 3 11 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 5 12 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NNE 4 9 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 NNE 4 9 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 NNE 4 4 6008 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 64 66 NNE 4 5 9116 7377 2607 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 68 70 NE 4 5 10700 9669 4899 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 70 72 NE 4 5 11415 10296 5526 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 72 73 ENE 4 5 11766 10630 5860 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 72 72 ENE 4 5 11415 10296 5526 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 72 72 ENE 4 4 11415 10296 5526 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 2 5 10109 8342 3572 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 2 6 6008 4770 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 2 5 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 2 6 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 NNE 2 5 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NNE 2 5 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 N 2 4 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 2 4 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 1 3 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 N 1 3 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 0 1 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 0 1 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 WSW 1 3 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SW 1 3 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 SW 1 3 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SW 2 5 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 SW 3 6 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 S 2 3 7416 5989 1219 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 63 65 S 4 5 8425 6924 2154 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 69 S 6 8 10337 9023 4253 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 70 72 SSW 10 11 11415 10296 5526 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 73 74 SW 11 13 12112 10986 6216 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 14 17 12112 10986 6216 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 71 71 W 16 18 11059 10069 5299 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 13 15 10700 9669 4899 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 11 24 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 11 23 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 10 22 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 10 21 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 10 21 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 9 20 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 WSW 9 20 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 9 20 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 8 18 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 W 8 18 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 8 18 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 17 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 W 8 14 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 W 7 11 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 W 6 10 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 W 4 5 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 WNW 4 4 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 60 WNW 4 5 6008 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 56 58 W 6 7 4922 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 W 7 9 5517 4770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 64 65 W 9 10 8425 6924 2154 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 10 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 W 9 11 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 57 W 10 11 3489 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 8 10 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 11 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 W 7 13 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 8 15 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 W 8 14 2717 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 W 7 11 2717 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]