Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 81 81 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 81 81 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 80 80 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 78 78 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 78 78 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 77 77 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 76 76 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 78 78 N 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 80 81 NNE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 83 85 NNE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 86 90 NE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 88 93 ENE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 90 95 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 91 95 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 92 95 E 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 92 94 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 93 93 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 90 90 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 88 88 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 87 87 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 84 84 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 83 83 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 82 82 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 81 81 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 80 80 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 79 79 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 78 78 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 78 78 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 78 78 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 76 76 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 78 78 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 79 80 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 83 85 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 85 89 ENE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 89 94 ENE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 91 96 ENE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 91 95 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 92 95 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 92 94 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 91 91 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 89 89 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 86 86 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 84 84 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 82 82 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 81 81 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 80 80 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 79 79 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 78 78 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 77 77 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 76 76 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 75 75 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 74 74 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 73 73 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 74 74 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 76 77 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 80 82 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 83 86 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 86 90 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 88 92 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 89 92 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 90 92 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 91 92 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 90 90 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 88 88 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 84 84 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 81 81 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 76 76 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 75 75 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 72 72 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 71 71 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 71 71 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 71 71 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 73 74 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 76 78 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 79 83 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 81 86 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 84 89 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 85 89 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 86 89 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 87 89 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 86 86 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 84 84 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 81 81 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 78 78 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 72 72 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 71 71 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 71 71 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 69 69 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 69 69 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 72 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 75 77 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 78 82 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 81 86 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 83 88 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 84 88 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 85 88 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 86 88 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 85 85 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 83 83 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 80 80 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 75 75 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 71 71 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 70 70 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 69 69 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 70 70 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 72 73 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 75 77 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 78 81 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 80 84 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 88 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 87 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 87 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 86 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 82 82 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 79 79 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]