Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 NE 8 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 NNE 8 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NNE 8 12 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 9 12 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 9 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 12 16 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 11 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 11 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 11 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 NE 13 18 5607 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 76 79 NE 12 16 6347 5894 1124 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 79 84 NE 12 16 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 81 87 E 12 16 8387 7473 2703 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 83 89 E 10 13 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 84 89 ESE 10 13 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 85 89 SE 9 12 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 86 88 SE 6 9 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 85 86 ESE 4 5 8096 7178 2408 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 83 83 S 8 10 7209 6483 1713 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 77 77 SSW 4 5 6051 5599 829 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 74 74 SSW 4 5 5607 4770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 2 3 4919 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 NNW 2 3 4248 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 2 3 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 WNW 3 4 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 4 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 4 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 9 12 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 NW 10 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 NW 10 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 NW 10 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 W 8 10 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 77 W 9 12 6051 5599 829 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 79 82 W 9 12 6908 6336 1566 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 81 85 WSW 9 12 7802 6880 2110 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 84 89 SW 10 13 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 86 91 SW 11 14 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 87 91 SSW 10 13 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 88 91 W 17 23 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 88 90 W 18 24 9248 8347 3577 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 87 88 W 20 27 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 18 24 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 14 19 6495 6041 1271 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 18 5903 5429 659 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 11 14 5442 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 71 71 NW 16 20 4248 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 20 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 10 20 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 10 20 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 10 16 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 16 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 16 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 8 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 8 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 8 13 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 NW 6 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 NW 6 11 5607 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 77 80 NW 6 11 6495 6041 1271 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 81 85 ENE 9 11 7802 6880 2110 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 83 88 ENE 9 11 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 84 90 ENE 9 11 9248 8347 3577 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 85 89 E 10 12 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 86 89 E 10 12 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 86 88 E 10 12 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 85 86 S 10 12 8096 7178 2408 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 82 82 S 10 12 6908 6336 1566 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 78 78 S 10 12 6199 5747 977 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 5 13 5607 4770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 5 13 4919 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 5 13 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 5 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 WNW 5 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 5 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 NW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 NW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 NNW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 NNW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 NNW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 N 6 10 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 N 6 10 5607 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 77 80 N 6 10 6495 6041 1271 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 81 85 NE 10 13 7802 6880 2110 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 83 88 NE 10 13 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 85 91 NE 10 13 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 86 91 E 12 17 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 87 91 E 12 17 9531 8633 3863 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 87 89 E 12 17 8963 8058 3288 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 86 87 ESE 10 12 8387 7473 2703 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 83 83 ESE 10 12 7209 6483 1713 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 79 79 ESE 10 12 6347 5894 1124 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 5 13 5755 4899 129 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 73 73 S 5 13 5442 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 71 71 S 5 13 4248 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 SW 6 12 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SW 6 12 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SW 6 12 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 SW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 9 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 W 5 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 W 5 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 W 5 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 NW 5 9 4248 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 NW 5 9 5755 4899 129 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 76 78 NW 5 9 6199 5747 977 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 79 82 ESE 6 9 6908 6336 1566 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 81 85 ESE 6 9 7802 6880 2110 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 83 87 ESE 6 9 8387 7473 2703 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 84 88 SSE 11 14 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 85 88 SSE 11 14 8676 7767 2997 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 84 86 SSE 11 14 8096 7178 2408 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 83 84 S 10 13 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 80 80 S 10 13 6495 6041 1271 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 76 76 S 10 13 5903 5429 659 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 6 13 5442 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 6 13 4248 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 6 13 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 8 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 WSW 8 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 8 14 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 11 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 WSW 6 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 WSW 5 10 3481 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 WSW 5 10 5442 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 75 78 WSW 5 10 6199 5747 977 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 78 82 SSE 8 10 6908 6336 1566 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 80 84 SSE 8 10 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 80 85 SSE 8 10 7802 6880 2110 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 81 84 S 12 19 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 82 84 S 12 19 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 83 84 S 12 19 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 83 84 SW 12 18 7507 6630 1860 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 80 80 SW 12 18 6495 6041 1271 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 18 5903 5429 659 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 72 72 SW 8 17 4919 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 17 3545 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 8 17 3481 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]