Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 NW 10 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NW 10 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NW 10 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NW 9 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NW 9 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 NW 8 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 66 W 10 5601 4770 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 66 70 S 10 7499 6101 1331 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 68 72 W 14 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 69 73 W 15 8773 7447 2677 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 69 72 W 18 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 69 70 W 21 7499 6101 1331 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 23 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 23 4675 4770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 23 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 23 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 22 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 22 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 22 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NW 22 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 NW 22 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 21 3228 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 18 3228 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 16 3031 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 14 2833 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NW 12 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NW 10 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NW 9 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 N 9 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 NE 9 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 61 64 NE 10 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 63 67 NE 10 6140 4770 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 66 70 NE 10 7499 6101 1331 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 68 72 NE 10 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 68 71 NE 10 7928 6575 1805 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 68 69 NE 10 7062 5569 799 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 68 68 NE 6 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 66 66 NE 6 5601 4770 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 6 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 6 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 6 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 6 3228 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 6 3228 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 3031 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 3031 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 3031 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 2833 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 8 2833 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 8 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 8 2792 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 8 2833 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 N 8 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 N 8 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 65 68 NE 9 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 72 NE 9 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 70 74 NE 9 9222 7871 3101 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 72 76 NE 10 9697 8700 3930 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 73 76 NE 10 9697 8700 3930 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 73 74 NE 10 9222 7871 3101 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 72 72 E 6 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 69 69 E 6 7062 5569 799 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 66 66 E 6 5601 4770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 5 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 5 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 5 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 6 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 6 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 9 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 9 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 N 9 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 66 68 N 9 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 69 72 NE 8 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 72 76 NE 8 9697 8700 3930 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 74 78 NE 8 9915 9567 4797 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 76 80 E 8 10134 9785 5015 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 77 80 E 8 10134 9785 5015 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 77 78 E 8 9915 9567 4797 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 76 76 E 6 9697 8700 3930 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 73 73 E 6 8773 7447 2677 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 69 69 E 6 7062 5569 799 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 66 66 N 5 5601 4770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 63 63 N 5 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 6 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 6 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 6 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 9 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 N 8 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 67 69 N 8 7062 5569 799 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 70 73 NE 8 8773 7447 2677 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 72 76 NE 8 9697 8700 3930 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 74 78 NE 8 9915 9567 4797 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 75 79 NE 8 10025 9676 4906 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 76 79 NE 8 10025 9676 4906 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 76 77 NE 8 9806 9144 4374 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 75 75 E 6 9588 8288 3518 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 72 72 E 6 8349 7015 2245 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 68 68 E 6 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 4675 4770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 5 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 4336 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 6 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 6 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 10 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 10 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 3817 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 10 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 10 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NE 13 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 NE 13 4167 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 64 66 NE 13 5601 4770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 67 70 NE 15 7499 6101 1331 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 69 73 NE 15 8773 7447 2677 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 70 74 NE 15 9222 7871 3101 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 71 75 NE 16 9588 8288 3518 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 72 74 NE 16 9222 7871 3101 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 72 73 NE 16 8773 7447 2677 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 71 71 E 14 7928 6575 1805 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 68 68 E 14 6616 4770 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 64 64 E 14 4506 4770 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 61 61 NE 8 3998 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3621 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NE 8 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 8 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 8 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 8 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 12 3424 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 12 3228 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 12 3228 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]