Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 E 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 SE 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 S 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 57 S 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 58 S 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 58 S 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 E 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 E 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 E 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 14 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 13 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 14 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 13 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 15 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 12 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 14 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 14 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 43 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 46 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 52 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 45 NE 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 48 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 55 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 57 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 55 NE 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 NE 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 NE 6 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 NE 7 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 51 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 3 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 51 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 58 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 58 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 57 NE 2 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 56 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 E 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 N 8 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 55 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 57 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 58 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 58 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 10 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 9 2625 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]