Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 WSW 3 13 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 69 69 NW 2 9 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 5 10 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 SW 9 13 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 SSW 9 13 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SSW 8 12 4232 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SW 6 11 4088 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 SSW 4 8 5345 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 74 75 SW 9 14 7223 5578 808 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 77 79 SSW 10 17 8431 7626 2856 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 79 82 S 13 21 9676 8403 3633 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 81 85 S 16 26 10754 9617 4847 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 89 SSW 16 26 13169 11249 6479 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 85 91 SSW 16 26 14242 12441 7671 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 85 90 SSW 17 27 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 85 90 SSW 19 31 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 85 89 SSW 21 35 13169 11249 6479 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 83 85 SSW 20 33 10754 9617 4847 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 82 83 SSW 20 33 10001 8598 3828 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 79 79 SSW 14 21 8431 7626 2856 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 16 7679 5820 1050 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 8 13 5590 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 11 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 6 11 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SSW 6 11 4088 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 S 6 11 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 S 6 11 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 6 11 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SSW 5 10 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SSW 4 8 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 5 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 ESE 2 4 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 E 1 2 5590 4770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 74 77 SE 2 4 8037 6588 1818 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 77 83 SW 3 5 10001 8598 3828 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 79 86 W 4 8 11399 9939 5169 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 83 91 WSW 4 8 14242 12441 7671 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 85 94 SW 5 8 15590 14067 9297 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 86 94 SW 6 19 15590 14067 9297 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 87 94 SW 10 19 15590 14067 9297 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 87 92 SW 16 19 14754 13002 8232 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 86 89 SW 19 34 13169 11249 6479 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 84 85 WSW 21 34 10754 9617 4847 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 23 34 8627 8011 3241 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 77 77 WNW 21 32 8037 6588 1818 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 19 32 6661 5334 564 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 16 32 5590 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 70 70 W 12 19 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 11 19 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 WSW 10 19 4232 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 WSW 9 14 4088 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 8 14 3943 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 W 8 14 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 6 10 3894 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 5 10 4088 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 4 10 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 74 75 WSW 3 4 7223 5578 808 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 77 80 WSW 2 4 8627 8011 3241 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 80 85 SW 1 4 10754 9617 4847 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 83 90 SW 0 0 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 85 93 SW 0 0 15223 13543 8773 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 87 96 WSW 0 0 18499 15067 10297 White 27
2 PM Fri 88 96 WSW 0 0 18499 15067 10297 White 27
3 PM Fri 89 96 W 0 0 18499 15067 10297 White 27
4 PM Fri 90 95 W 0 0 15952 14574 9804 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 89 92 W 2 13 14754 13002 8232 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 87 88 W 6 13 12603 10611 5841 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 12 13 10001 8598 3828 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 12 16 8627 8011 3241 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 12 16 8234 7175 2405 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 12 16 7679 5820 1050 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 11 19 6661 5334 564 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 W 11 19 5835 4854 84 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 72 72 W 11 19 5590 4770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 71 71 WNW 10 16 5345 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 70 70 WNW 10 16 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 69 69 WNW 10 16 4377 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 WNW 10 14 4879 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 72 72 WNW 10 14 5590 4770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 76 76 WNW 10 14 7679 5820 1050 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 80 81 NNW 10 14 9222 8207 3437 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 84 87 NNW 10 14 12014 10258 5488 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 87 92 NNW 10 14 14754 13002 8232 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 90 97 ENE 10 14 18698 15449 10679 White 28
12 Noon Sat 92 100 ENE 10 14 19289 18463 13693 White 31
1 PM Sat 94 103 ENE 10 14 19857 19857 15087 White 34
2 PM Sat 95 103 E 12 19 19857 19857 15087 White 34
3 PM Sat 96 103 E 12 19 19857 19857 15087 White 34
4 PM Sat 96 101 E 12 19 19479 19479 14709 White 32
5 PM Sat 95 98 E 12 18 18899 15808 11038 White 29
6 PM Sat 93 94 E 12 18 15590 14067 9297 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 90 90 E 12 18 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 87 87 W 8 17 12014 10258 5488 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 85 85 W 8 17 10754 9617 4847 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 83 83 W 8 17 10001 8598 3828 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 10 16 9222 8207 3437 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 10 16 8627 8011 3241 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 79 79 W 10 16 8431 7626 2856 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 78 78 WNW 10 14 8234 7175 2405 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 77 77 WNW 10 14 8037 6588 1818 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 76 76 WNW 10 14 7679 5820 1050 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 76 76 WNW 10 16 7679 5820 1050 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 78 78 WNW 10 16 8234 7175 2405 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 82 82 WNW 10 16 9676 8403 3633 Blue 13
8 AM Sun 86 87 N 12 18 12014 10258 5488 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 89 92 N 12 18 14754 13002 8232 Blue 23
10 AM Sun 92 97 N 12 18 18698 15449 10679 White 28
11 AM Sun 95 102 ENE 11 17 19668 19668 14898 White 33
12 Noon Sun 97 105 ENE 11 17 20233 20233 15463 White 36
1 PM Sun 98 107 ENE 11 17 20609 20609 15839 White 38
2 PM Sun 99 107 ENE 12 18 20609 20609 15839 White 38
3 PM Sun 100 106 ENE 12 18 20421 20421 15651 White 37
4 PM Sun 100 105 ENE 12 18 20233 20233 15463 White 36
5 PM Sun 99 101 ENE 11 20 19479 19479 14709 White 32
6 PM Sun 97 98 ENE 11 20 18899 15808 11038 White 29
7 PM Sun 93 93 ENE 11 20 15223 13543 8773 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 90 90 NW 6 14 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 88 88 NW 6 14 12603 10611 5841 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 86 86 NW 6 14 11399 9939 5169 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 84 84 W 9 13 10315 9112 4342 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 W 9 13 10001 8598 3828 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 82 82 W 9 13 9676 8403 3633 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 81 81 WNW 9 13 9222 8207 3437 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 80 80 WNW 9 13 8627 8011 3241 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 79 79 WNW 9 13 8431 7626 2856 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 79 79 WNW 9 13 8431 7626 2856 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 81 81 WNW 9 13 9222 8207 3437 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 84 84 WNW 9 13 10315 9112 4342 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 88 89 NNE 10 16 13169 11249 6479 Blue 20
9 AM Mon 91 94 NNE 10 16 15590 14067 9297 Blue 25
10 AM Mon 94 99 NNE 10 16 19098 16309 11539 White 30
11 AM Mon 96 102 E 11 16 19668 19668 14898 White 33
12 Noon Mon 98 105 E 11 16 20233 20233 15463 White 36
1 PM Mon 99 107 E 11 16 20609 20609 15839 White 38
2 PM Mon 100 107 ESE 12 18 20609 20609 15839 White 38
3 PM Mon 100 106 ESE 12 18 20421 20421 15651 White 37
4 PM Mon 99 103 ESE 12 18 19857 19857 15087 White 34
5 PM Mon 98 100 SSE 13 19 19289 18463 13693 White 31
6 PM Mon 96 97 SSE 13 19 18698 15449 10679 White 28
7 PM Mon 93 93 SSE 13 19 15223 13543 8773 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 90 90 SW 10 18 13715 11857 7087 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 88 88 SW 10 18 12603 10611 5841 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 86 86 SW 10 18 11399 9939 5169 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]